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THE THREAD OF THE FURIOUS: Friday #s (DHD, Pg 36) F8 45.5M, BB 6.6M, BATB 5.3M, Smurfs 2.9M, GIS 2.1M

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1 minute ago, GiantCALBears said:

Adjusted it probably doesn't beat Fast 6 and will likely have worse legs. The discussion always turns to the future, OW is history now...

If your requirement for a "succesful opening" is literally the absolute zenith of the series where one of the leads has to die to increase the opening weekend, your definition of a "disappointment" is way too high.

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4 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

Right but post-theatrical release they'd probably make enough money within the US to turn a profit.

Not at 400 mil budget/marketing they wouldn't. Remember you have to divide the gross to show real profit.

Edited by drdungbeetle
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Just now, drdungbeetle said:

Not at 400 mil they wouldn't. Remember you have to divide the gross to show real profit.

 

Right but the TV deals would be pretty big. International grosses you have to divide even more. And anyways, SW, BVS, Avengers are the real big guns and not the typical blockbuster. :)

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2 minutes ago, drdungbeetle said:

If your requirement for a "succesful opening" is literally the absolute zenith of the series where one of the leads has to die to increase the opening weekend, your definition of a "disappointment" is way too high.

I never said that, my initial post was just backing up someone who did as having a right to feel how they want. Thanks for your analysis though. 

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Just now, Water Bottle said:

 

Right but the TV deals would be pretty big. International grosses you have to divide even more. And anyways, SW, BVS, Avengers are the real big guns and not the typical blockbuster. :)

TV deals would not be profitable enough given that most of the non Star Wars/Avengers movies don't make that much to juice the cost of the TV deal. 

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I'm not Fast Furious loonie.  In fact, they, for the most part, are kinda stupid but fun time passers.  I am a very big SW fan so this has nothing do with favouring one film over the other.  I just think that we all knew F8 was going to drop signicantl;y from the last one.  In fact, I know we did.  If you go back into the F8 thread, everyone said that the last one was an anomaly.  We are now onto an 8th film and it has maintained its interest, in fact increased interest, from film to film.  But with Walker's death and the last one being "one last ride" it managed to get casual moviegoer interested in seeing it.  But internationally it set opening weekend records in 17 markets.  

 

Look I get where you are coming from.  It's nice to think that domestic still matters more, we are after all, many of us, North Americans.  But the world is "bigger" now.  Many films, especially the ones that are budgeted in the 400 million range, are looking to make their money internationally just as much as they are domestically.  So imo, a record opening is incredible, regardless of what it makes here.

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2 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

I never said that, my initial post was just backing up someone who did as having a right to feel how they want. Thanks for your analysis though. 

So you're backing up your right to be completely wrong and waste people's time claiming a movie as a "disappointment" that wasn't?

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Everyone is allowed an opinion, ya know? If the domestic opening is a disappointment to YOU (you being whoever), then fine. If it's not, that's okay too!

Edited by JB33
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Just now, drdungbeetle said:

So you're backing up your right to be completely wrong and waste people's time claiming a movie as a "disappointment" that wasn't?

What is your problem? The domestic opening wasn't great given the budget and performance of previous films. Sorry you don't get why someone would feel different from you. 

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Just now, baumer said:

I'm not Fast Furious loonie.  In fact, they, for the most part, are kinda stupid but fun time passers.  I am a very big SW fan so this has nothing do with favouring one film over the other.  I just think that we all knew F8 was going to drop signicantl;y from the last one.  In fact, I know we did.  If you go back into the F8 thread, everyone said that the last one was an anomaly.  We are now onto an 8th film and it has maintained its interest, in fact increased interest, from film to film.  But with Walker's death and the last one being "one last ride" it managed to get casual moviegoer interested in seeing it.  But internationally it set opening weekend records in 17 markets.  

 

Look I get where you are coming from.  It's nice to think that domestic still matters more, we are after all, many of us, North Americans.  But the world is "bigger" now.  Many films, especially the ones that are budgeted in the 400 million range, are looking to make their money internationally just as much as they are domestically.  So imo, a record opening is incredible, regardless of what it makes here.

Other than Star Wars/Avengers, I can't think of too many things with a "$400 mil" budget that are UScentric rather than international centric. That's what this is really about, even if people on here try to spin frantically to avoid it.

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I think it's fair to call the domestic opening "mildly disappointing" as long as you're saying that in the context of how well it opened overall.

 

Tracking had it at 110-115 at worst. It came in a bit under that mark. Yes, it's on par (and slightly better) than the pre-F7 ones but at the same time, F7 lifted the bar high enough I think you could reasonably argue that while a drop was expected, you'd still think it would hit the low 100s at least.

 

And it didn't.

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Just now, GiantCALBears said:

What is your problem? The domestic opening wasn't great given the budget and performance of previous films. Sorry you don't get why someone would feel different from you. 

Geez, were you the Black Knight from Monty Python in a previous life? "C'mon, I'll bite your legs off, FAST 8 IS CRUMBLING!!!!1!"

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3 hours ago, Water Bottle said:

 

Right but post-theatrical release they'd probably make enough money within the US to turn a profit.

 

Absolutely.  I agree.  I've preached this year after year.....the theatrical gross is just a small part of the pie.  It used to be an even smaller part when HV could make you another 200-300 million.  TV rights used to cost the network buying them, 12% of the domestic gross.  So if a movie grossed 100 million, NBC (for example) would buy those right for 12 million.  I have no idea if that has changed or not but that is a good barometer to go with.

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2 minutes ago, Tele Came Back said:

I think it's fair to call the domestic opening "mildly disappointing" as long as you're saying that in the context of how well it opened overall.

 

Tracking had it at 110-115 at worst. It came in a bit under that mark. Yes, it's on par (and slightly better) than the pre-F7 ones but at the same time, F7 lifted the bar high enough I think you could reasonably argue that while a drop was expected, you'd still think it would hit the low 100s at least.

 

And it didn't.

Is there that much difference between 102 mil and 98 mil? This nitpicking to try to spin this is nuts.

Edited by drdungbeetle
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1 minute ago, KP1025 said:

I wonder how long the worldwide OW record will hold this time. I don't see TLJ taking the crown back for Star Wars. It looks like IW or its sequel have the best chance in the next 2 years. 

 

Depends on what markets SW8 opens to in the fist weekend. With China it could open to 550 WW.

 

225 Dom + 75 China + 250 OS-China = 550 WW

 

-225 OW is down 9-10% from SW7's 248 (even if the final Dom ends up falling by a bigger %, the OW % fall might not be big).

-China OW was 50 for SW7. An increase is likely.

-OS-China OW was 288 for SW7. So 250 (-14% from 288) is possible for SW8.

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3 hours ago, Tele Came Back said:

I think it's fair to call the domestic opening "mildly disappointing" as long as you're saying that in the context of how well it opened overall.

 

Tracking had it at 110-115 at worst. It came in a bit under that mark. Yes, it's on par (and slightly better) than the pre-F7 ones but at the same time, F7 lifted the bar high enough I think you could reasonably argue that while a drop was expected, you'd still think it would hit the low 100s at least.

 

And it didn't.

 

Fair enough.  I will capitulate. :)

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4 minutes ago, baumer said:

I'm not Fast Furious loonie.  In fact, they, for the most part, are kinda stupid but fun time passers.  I am a very big SW fan so this has nothing do with favouring one film over the other.  I just think that we all knew F8 was going to drop signicantl;y from the last one.  In fact, I know we did.  If you go back into the F8 thread, everyone said that the last one was an anomaly.  We are now onto an 8th film and it has maintained its interest, in fact increased interest, from film to film.  But with Walker's death and the last one being "one last ride" it managed to get casual moviegoer interested in seeing it.  But internationally it set opening weekend records in 17 markets.  

 

Look I get where you are coming from.  It's nice to think that domestic still matters more, we are after all, many of us, North Americans.  But the world is "bigger" now.  Many films, especially the ones that are budgeted in the 400 million range, are looking to make their money internationally just as much as they are domestically.  So imo, a record opening is incredible, regardless of what it makes here.

They make less money per person overseas but especially in China. That's the counter, it's an impressive total but if pure profitability is your favorite metric then it's a bit misleading when a bulk of that total comes from China. Do I deny it's importance? No but also remember this is primarily a DOMESTIC subforum correct? 

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1 minute ago, GiantCALBears said:

They make less money per person overseas but especially in China. That's the counter, it's an impressive total but if pure profitability is your favorite metric then it's a bit misleading when a bulk of that total comes from China. Do I deny it's importance? No but also remember this is primarily a DOMESTIC subforum correct? 

Not if movies do a third (or less) of their gross in the US, as often happens nowadays. Look at Resident Evil, a series that goes on and on yet now makes 90% of its grosses outside the US.

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