2018: Superhero Underperformance/Peak? Or Complete Domination?

[Valonqar]

Complete domination. It's done. 

[MCKillswitch123]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Well you're right that BP could just miss, but IW is only missing if it doesn't deliver. And yeah, I'll admit I'm pretty damn confident in it delivering. 

Sure, man. I don't even think Infinity War is locked for 500 (I think the initial demand upfront will be too overwhelming and then it'll just drop off harshly weekend after weekend - apart from maybe its 3rd w/e... but then Deadpool and Solo come out on its 4th and 5th respectively), but hey, some of us gotta be more optimistic, me thinks.

Edited April 17, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[Valonqar]

IW is locked for 600M. It's gonna open well above 200M and all 200M grossers passed 600M. 

[MCKillswitch123]

2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

IW is locked for 600M. It's gonna open well above 200M and all 200M grossers passed 600M. 

Last Jedi would positively have not done it if it came out at any time that wasn't mid December. Context, folks.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, MCKillswitch123 said:

Last Jedi would positively have not done it if it came out at any time that wasn't mid December. Context, folks.

And it positively would have flown past 700 with its OW if it had ubiquitously good reception. Context, folks. 

[MCKillswitch123]

12 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

And it positively would have flown past 700 with its OW if it had ubiquitously good reception. Context, folks. 

I'm obviously talking about the movie that we actually got. Going down that rabbit hole of "what if this movie had X quality", history would change completely just by changing a couple of things. I.e. what if Avengers 1 had gotten mixed reception at best, terrible at worst? Probably would've topped out at Iron Man numbers, that's what. Luckily, that didn't happen and we got a great movie + a BO monster. So, let's not go down that route. (Changing release dates is also a difference, but as far as opening goes, TLJ would do ~220M OW in pretty much any spot of the year... it's the legs that would most assuredly not be the same.)

 

Last Jedi didn't even triple its 3-day OW...... in the fucking holidays. Infinity War does not have the holidays, and its staying power will not be much better than TLJ's when you take away the many 4-day weekends and full-blown heart of Summer-scale weekdays that shit had to its advantage (IW will still be in late April/May, after all).

Edited April 17, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[MovieMan89]

Just now, MCKillswitch123 said:

I'm obviously talking about the movie that we actually got. Going down that rabbit hole of "what if this movie had X quality", history would change completely just by changing a couple of things. I.e. what if Avengers 1 had gotten mixed reception at best, terrible at worst? Probably would've topped out at Iron Man numbers, that's what. Luckily, that didn't happen and we got a great movie + a BO monster. So, let's not go down that route. (And no, that's not to say that changing release dates wouldn't make a difference either, but movies like TLJ would open to ~220M in almost in any spot of the year. It was fucking a Star Wars main saga episode coming off The Force Awakens, after all.)

 

Last Jedi didn't even triple its 3-day OW...... in the fucking holidays. Infinity War does not have the holidays, and its staying power will not be much better than TLJ's when you take away the many 4-day weekends and full-blown heart of Summer-scale weekdays that shit had to its advantage (IW will still be in late April/May, after all).

But my whole point in arguing a 2.5x+ multi (and I think anyone who is in the same camp as me) is assuming IW is going to deliver. Why would I even be talking about a good multi otherwise? 

[dudalb]

20 hours ago, John Marston said:

Venom will definitely be the lowest grosser by a large margin. Has niche written all over it. Wouldn’t be surprised if it doesnt make 100m

I agree about how Venom will do, but think that the animated Spidey movie wont' do much better, and might do worse.

[dudalb]

On ‎4‎/‎24‎/‎2017 at 2:31 PM, Dexter of Suburbia said:

Holy fuck you are young. That was my first free movie I saw since I started my job at my local theater. 

Being one of the elders here, I saw the first Superman movie back in 1978 when I was 12.

[MCKillswitch123]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

But my whole point in arguing a 2.5x+ multi (and I think anyone who is in the same camp as me) is assuming IW is going to deliver. Why would I even be talking about a good multi otherwise? 

Even if IW delievers, why wouldn't it be frontloaded? We've seen that time and time again w/franchises that grow ever more frontloaded like the last Avengers movies were (I know Civil War is not titled Avengers, but it's almost the same thing as being an Avengers movie in all but title): the fanbase rushes big time, LOVES it, critics give it really good reviews too, and then nobody else really cares. It just blips off the radar w/60% drops. And I know you're gonna argue why CW had bad legs and all.... the point remains: it was basically Avengers 2.5 and its legs did not work out. I think Infinity War might have better legs, but to have slightly more than a 2.2x isn't really major bragging rights imo.

 

But, to be honest, I feel like we've argued this a billion times, so I apologize for restarting it and I really hope not to do it again. Let's just wait until the movie comes out and figure out whose argument was closer to truth. Not that it really matters because it's just discussion on the internet, it's not really a competition by any means, but still, for the sake of fun, I guess.

Edited April 17, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[MovieMan89]

Look, I think I'm being perfectly reasonable to say the movie can have a 2.5-3x multi with such an event opening if audiences eat it up and it goes over big. It's not like I'm saying BP's multi is incoming in such a case. Why there's so much pushback that it "has" to be BvS/CW frontloaded "no matter what" is beyond me. But yeah, let's not get into it again. 

Edited April 17, 2018 by MovieMan89

[MCKillswitch123]

37 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Look, I think I'm being perfectly reasonable to say the movie can have a 2.5-3x multi with such an event opening if audiences eat it up and it goes over big. It's not like I'm saying BP's multi is incoming in such a case. Why there's so much pushback that it "has" to be BvS/CW frontloaded "no matter what" is beyond me. But yeah, let's not get into it again. 

Sorry for breaking my "won't discuss this anymore", but I need to put this out. In spoiler because it's kind of a testament-long post and I don't wanna put this thread in semi-off-topic: 

Spoiler

 

2.5x isn't completely beyond reason but it's also not likely, but 3x would be incomprehensible. Period. There's a 0.0000000000000000001% chance it happens. There's less chance of this than there was of Black Panther outgrossing Titanic... which happened, but before it happened, it seemed waaaayyyyyy too unlikely, even if BP hit the 200 OW mark. 3x for Infinity War, though, makes it look like a cakewalk (especially in hindsight). And if it does fulfill that chance, paint me with a "ME STUPID" graffiti spray, but I just find it damn near impossible. It needs extraordinary wom to achieve, which is already a "who knows" case as too many characters and tones can be jarring to handle, even for someone like the Russos who have already proven they can take care of a large ensemble before. And even if it does have great wom... like I said already, we've seen cases of fanboy-event franchise movies that blew up OW and had rave wom and reviews, but they still weren't enough to dissuade casuals from their shells of "why bother watching when I know I won't understand half of what's going on because I'm not that attached to the franchise" (which could be a problem to the audience that was introduced to the MCU w/BP, for example, as they might be down for IW due to the presence of T'Challa, Shuri, Okoye and Wakanda.... but what if we don't get a lot of that in the film, and we get a lot more shit that they're not familiar with and will just confuse the hell out of them? They might not enjoy themselves too much and might tell some of their peers to "stay away from IW, unless you're a big fanboy of the MCU and you understand everything").

 

From the looks of the marketing, nothing has deviated me from thinking Infinity War has been sistematically designed w/a niche fanbase in mind (though Marvel's niche is really, really big, let's be honest... and, well, I'm a part of it too), and its two previous predecessors (one of them more of a spiritual one, but still) were pretty damn frontloaded either way. Case in point, for a movie like that to hit anywhere close to 3x, it would probably need out of this world wom. I'm talking Black Panther-type wom. And BP wasn't just a good movie, it was legit cultural relevant, so the quest at hand is more than an Everest-sized demand. AND, on top of terrific wom, it would need to be very easily accessible to all audiences. Which, considering that the MCU plays like a TV series (for better or, in some cases, for worse), is like asking the Game Of Thrones showrunners to make the Season 8 finale a good introduction for newcomers. That's almost ridiculous to think about. A few movies have done it, but they were basically confined to their own universes and uncomplicated plots. Avengers 1 did it, but Avengers wasn't intrenched in a dozen movies' worth of story either way (hell, Avengers might as well be A New Hope and the Phase 1 origin stories just the Anthologies that you don't need to see, but if you did, it would make it a more complete experience..... and then from Avengers onwards, it's mostly all important shit.)

 

 

Edited April 17, 2018 by MCKillswitch123