Jump to content

YM!

2018: Superhero Underperformance/Peak? Or Complete Domination?

Recommended Posts

Most of them will be huge, but I could also see most of them underperforming the average predictions. New Mutants, Dark Phoenix, Venom, Animated Spiderman, and Aquaman are the ones in danger of poor performances if marketing/reviews don't go well. Their success hinges on that. Whereas the other 5 are pretty much locked to 200+ no matter what. 

Edited by MovieMan89
Link to comment
Share on other sites



6 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Most of them will be huge, but I could also see most of them underperforming the average predictions. New Mutants, Dark Phoenix, Venom, Animated Spiderman, and Aquaman are the ones in danger of poor performances if marketing/reviews don't go well. Their success hinges on that. Whereas the other 5 are pretty much locked to 200+ no matter what. 

What are the other five?

Link to comment
Share on other sites



Predictions:

Black Panther: $105M/$325M

New Mutants: $80M/$230M 

Infinity War: $210M/$450M

Deadpool 2: $125M/$290M

Incredibles 2: $130M/$425M

Ant Man 2: $75M/$200M

Teen Titans Go!: $25M/$85M

Venom: $45M/$120M

Dark Phoenix: $55M/$130M

Aquaman: $100M/$340M

Animated Spider-Man: $25M/$130M

Link to comment
Share on other sites





Yeah, 2 of the 3 X-Men titles have been bumped to 2019 (at the earliest), so 2018 has more breathing room than before. 2019, though... eesh. 5 superhero movies in the 1st 4 months of the year, one per month (Glass and the Hellboy reboot in January, Dark Phoenix in February, Captain Marvel in March and Shazam in April). It doesn't stop there: Not Infinity War Part 2 (Except It Is) in May, Spider-Man: Virginity Loss in July, New Mutants in August, The Crow reboot in October and Wonder Woman 2 in November. Quite a lot of these things coming next year.

 

As for 2018, well, Black Panther is the #3 DOM movie of all time and in the top 10 WW, Infinity War is probably gonna crack the top 5 WW and possibly the top 10 DOM, Deadpool 2 is likely gonna be a 100 OW/280-320 range DOM/700-750 WW hit (though a decrease from DP1, but still not too bad), Incredibles 2 could potentially break the animated OW record and cross 400M DOM/950M-1B WW, Ant-Man 2 is aiming at around or over Doctor Strange totals (which is pretty damn good for a sequel to Ant-Man), Into The Spider-Verse is a risky prospect but I don't see it doing a lot less than The Peanuts Movie DOM and Lego Batman WW, Aquaman isn't looking to fall below 200 DOM/650 WW, and who knows about Venom or Teen Titans but those are the only two question marks at this point. Seems like total domination to me :ph34r:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Which will be the 2ND lowest grossing live action CBM this year (DOM) ? I think VENOM will be lowest at 135-165.

 

At the moment guessing AM2 will do around 81 ow * 2.65x = 215 dom;  AM1 was 57.2 * 3.15x = 180.2

GOTG1's multi was 3.53x and GOTG2's was 2.65x, with a 56% bump in ow. I have kept AM2's multi steadier 3.15x=>2.65x with a 42% bump in ow.

 

AQM has a shot at 215 dom but it will have to be a very good film. Right now have it at 180 odd (60-65 * 2.8-3.0 with a Christmas Release date)

Link to comment
Share on other sites



7 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Which will be the 2ND lowest grossing live action CBM this year (DOM) ? I think VENOM will be lowest at 135-165.

 

At the moment guessing AM2 will do around 81 ow * 2.65x = 215 dom;  AM1 was 57.2 * 3.15x = 180.2

GOTG1's multi was 3.53x and GOTG2's was 2.65x, with a 56% bump in ow. I have kept AM2's multi steadier 3.15x=>2.65x with a 42% bump in ow.

 

AQM has a shot at 215 dom but it will have to be a very good film. Right now have it at 180 odd (60-65 * 2.8-3.0 with a Christmas Release date)

I have Aquaman clearing 200 even if it's not a very good movie. Christmas legs + the DC brand + James fucking Wan will probably push it to the 190's range, and whether or not is it a smooth transition to 200 or is it a fudgejob, we have to wait and see.

 

As far as the 2nd lowest grossing live-action one (I was about to say Venom will be the 2nd lowest grossing cause Teen Titans is 98% surely gonna be the #1 lowest), I'm definitely putting it between Aquaman and Ant-Man, like you did. And I dunno, I think both have breakout potential.... but if you ask me right now, I think Aquaman has the bigger ceiling, so I'll go Ant-Man for now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



6 hours ago, John Marston said:

Venom will definitely be the lowest grosser by a large margin. Has niche written all over it. Wouldn’t be surprised if it doesnt make 100m

I woulda thought the same about Deadpool 3 years ago.

Link to comment
Share on other sites





I dont see how CMB are peaking, I think the individual ones are likely to do even better.

 

 

Think about it this way...

 

Doctor Strange made more WW then a major comic book movie like Iron Man 2 did WW.

 

I think that has shown how much the brand has grown. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites





If it's good, I believe Venom is going to do a lot better than people think it will, "nicheness" doesn't matter anymore when it comes to CBMs, if it did then GOTG, Ant Man, Deadpool (although IMO he was a lot more well known than people on the internet are willing to admit), and Doctor Strange would've all flopped/underperformed. Also keep in mind that Venom was featured in Spiderman 3 back in '07.

 

But like I said, IF it's good. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites



4 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

The same was said for 2008 and 2012 too. Seems like every 4-6 years there's a new "peak" year for superhero movies. :P 

Are we really going to get another year with two 700+ CBMs though? And it's not like any of the others aren't going to do really well, with the exception of maybe Venom. 2018 will be an insane bar to beat. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites



6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Are we really going to get another year with two 700+ CBMs though? And it's not like any of the others aren't going to do really well, with the exception of maybe Venom. 2018 will be an insane bar to beat. 

We haven't gotten it yet, and it sure won't be this year either. :ph34r: (Hell, even Black Panther isn't locked to cross 700.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites



3 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

We haven't gotten it yet, and it sure won't be this year either. :ph34r: (Hell, even Black Panther isn't locked to cross 700.)

Well you're right that BP could just miss, but IW is only missing if it doesn't deliver. And yeah, I'll admit I'm pretty damn confident in it delivering. 

  • Disbelief 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.