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US | 03.22.2019 | Universal | 13th Most Profitable Movie of 2019

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3 hours ago, RichWS said:

I want this now. Ridiculous wait.

 

I'm afraid I've got some bad news for you.

 

 

Your wait just got a week longer.

 

 

24 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

If you listen closely, you can hear the sound of thousands of cinema managers across the US screaming in anger about having to notify customers that they’ve had to cancel showings...

 

How many times have we seen a movie delayed after tickets went on sale? This seems like an extremely rare occurrence. Very inconvenient for both theaters and the folks who already bought tickets.

 

 

24 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

it gives it a bit of breathing room moving it away from the second week of Captain Marvel.

 

This seems like a much more believable reason for the delay. Captain Marvel is likely to be 4-quadrant huge. Likely not as big as Black Panther or Avengers, but if you had to chose between the week after CM and the week before Dumbo, I'd certainly pick the latter for this movie, as the CM audience is far more likely to crossover than the Dumbo audience.

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48 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I guess Uni got cold feet after seeing Captain Marvel's pre-sales? That's the only explanation for such a last-minute date change.

Presales aren't THAT huge for Cap, FWIW.  Strong, but not IW/SW strong.  More like BP or DP2 strong, I'd say.  And even then the comps aren't great because BP didn't take off until its world premiere and DP2 was just an anomaly from day one.

 

If I had day one presales for either BP or DP2, I'd probably have a stronger comp.  As it is, CM seems to be about 30 percent or so of IW's day one sales, about 72% of BP sales after eight days and 83% of DP2 sales after seven days.  Those numbers will go up a tick when I do my final count in a few hours.  But not by that much.

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50 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Presales aren't THAT huge for Cap, FWIW.  Strong, but not IW/SW strong.  More like BP or DP2 strong, I'd say.  And even then the comps aren't great because BP didn't take off until its world premiere and DP2 was just an anomaly from day one.

 

If I had day one presales for either BP or DP2, I'd probably have a stronger comp.  As it is, CM seems to be about 30 percent or so of IW's day one sales, about 72% of BP sales after eight days and 83% of DP2 sales after seven days.  Those numbers will go up a tick when I do my final count in a few hours.  But not by that much.

Nobody was expecting CM to have similar numbers to IW/SW anyway... something similar to BP is already great and bodes well for a possible $ 150M plus debut.

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11 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Nobody was expecting CM to have similar numbers to IW/SW anyway... something similar to BP is already great and bodes well for a possible $ 150M plus debut.

Yes, but that's kinda my point.  Universal should have been thinking about a 150 OW or so bow for Captain Marvel when they scheduled Us close to CM in the first place.

 

Now, maybe they were waiting for a sign that it would be as strong as thought...  But then why sell tickets so far in advance if there was a chance of moving it?

 

Just odd all the way around.  From having presales nearly three months in advance to moving it at the first concrete sign that CM might hit its first target.

 

Maybe Han is right about PLFs.  But it still raises the question of selling tickets.

 

Really, as I think about it, the odd thing isn't moving Us.  Happens quite a bit, as last summer shows. The odd thing was selling tickets so far out in advance.  If someone can riddle me that, I'd be grateful.

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6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Yes, but that's kinda my point.  Universal should have been thinking about a 150 OW or so bow for Captain Marvel when they scheduled Us close to CM in the first place.

 

Now, maybe they were waiting for a sign that it would be as strong as thought...  But then why sell tickets so far in advance if there was a chance of moving it?

 

Just odd all the way around.  From having presales nearly three months in advance to moving it at the first concrete sign that CM might hit its first target.

 

Maybe Han is right about PLFs.  But it still raises the question of selling tickets.

 

Really, as I think about it, the odd thing isn't moving Us.  Happens quite a bit, as last summer shows. The odd thing was selling tickets so far out in advance.  If someone can riddle me that, I'd be grateful.

Yeah, personally i also think they're open presales too soon 

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10 hours ago, Porthos said:

Yes, but that's kinda my point.  Universal should have been thinking about a 150 OW or so bow for Captain Marvel when they scheduled Us close to CM in the first place.

 

Now, maybe they were waiting for a sign that it would be as strong as thought...  But then why sell tickets so far in advance if there was a chance of moving it?

 

Just odd all the way around.  From having presales nearly three months in advance to moving it at the first concrete sign that CM might hit its first target.

 

Maybe Han is right about PLFs.  But it still raises the question of selling tickets.

 

Really, as I think about it, the odd thing isn't moving Us.  Happens quite a bit, as last summer shows. The odd thing was selling tickets so far out in advance.  If someone can riddle me that, I'd be grateful.

I think Universal's strategy was just trying to sell the movie as massive of an event as possible, therefore promoting tickets on sale months in advance due to how big of a deal the movie is. And it will be a big deal, no doubt about that (I think it'll hit 200M DOM). Plus, I think they wanted people's money before Captain Marvel tickets went on sale, so that they didn't have to 'share the spotlight' of sorts. Then again, dunno why Universal cares so much, because movies like this are made to be walkup juggernauts anyway.

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The March schedule is so weird now. 3 straight weekends of ONE wide release:

 

MARCH 1

Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral

 

MARCH 8

Captain Marvel

 

MARCH 15

Wonder Park

 

Then SIX wide releases on the 22nd:

 

MARCH 22

Five Feet Apart

Greyhound

Hotel Mumbai

The Informer

Us

Where'd You Go, Bernadette

 

Obviously it won't stay like that but it's just weird to look at right now. Studios shouldn't be afraid of CAPTAIN MARVEL when it comes to the smaller films that aren't expected to rake in a lot of money anyway. Move up something like THE INFORMER to March 1 and I don't see any big difference, except that it's better than 6 films cannibalizing each other on one weekend, with US coming out on top.

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26 minutes ago, JB33 said:

The March schedule is so weird now. 3 straight weekends of ONE wide release:

 

MARCH 1

Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral

 

MARCH 8

Captain Marvel

 

MARCH 15

Wonder Park

 

Then SIX wide releases on the 22nd:

 

MARCH 22

Five Feet Apart

Greyhound

Hotel Mumbai

The Informer

Us

Where'd You Go, Bernadette

 

Obviously it won't stay like that but it's just weird to look at right now. Studios shouldn't be afraid of CAPTAIN MARVEL when it comes to the smaller films that aren't expected to rake in a lot of money anyway. Move up something like THE INFORMER to March 1 and I don't see any big difference, except that it's better than 6 films cannibalizing each other on one weekend, with US coming out on top.

We still have not seen anything from Greyhound, so it is probably not staying there. Everything else except Us is from small unaccomplished distributors that are probably not going to see many theaters. 

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