US | 03.22.2019 | Universal | 13th Most Profitable Movie of 2019

[Barnack]

36 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

In theory, US should've been holding even better than AQP considering it's drawing both teens and adults, while AQP was much more adult oriented. 

I would have thought the exact opposite, teens heavy make it more likely to hurt a movie hold, has older people see a movie in average like 17 days after release day and much sooner for the younger people.

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

26 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Just mean it was always going to be more frontloaded than something like AQP.

 

Sure, that’s why I’m expecting a 3.0x instead of a 3.8x.  

[PenguinHyphy]

37 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

 

Dude, I'm not denying US' impressive success, all that I'm saying is that a 3.0x multiple isn't something hard to be archived by an original And acclaimed Horror movie, something that I thought was pretty obvious? And yet, people here are acting like I'm claiming that anything below GO's multiple is a failure for this movie. 

A 3.0 multiplier for a movie opening at $70,000,000 still equates to a higher gross than a 3.85 multiplier for a movie that opens at $50,000,000. Movies that open lower having a better multiplier than a movie that opened higher is what happens the majority of the time, so what is so supposed to be so special about that? We are staring at you crazy because a movie having a better multiplier does not mean shit when your movie is going to hit $200,000,000 at the domestic box office while the others did not. Plenty have 3.0 multipliers, but how many have hit $200,000,000 at the domestic box office? Your entire crusade about multipliers is outrageous when grosses are what ultimately matter. It will be like someone bringing up Wonder Woman having a 4.0+ multiplier when bringing up Black Panther, even though Black Panther has a higher gross.  

Edited April 1, 2019 by PenguinHyphy

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

18 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

A Quiet Place is a lot more straightforward than Us. 

 

Plus US opened $20m higher. That indicates more people rushed out. Also, marketing advised to avoid spoilers.

 

Anyway, a horror falling 53% isn’t new. n An original one opening to $71m, on the other hand, is. 

 

No one really cares what it’s multiple is. 

 

IT opened $50m higher and had a better second weekend drop, next argument? 

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

9 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I would have thought the exact opposite, teens heavy make it more likely to hurt a movie hold, has older people see a movie in average like 17 days after release day and much sooner for the younger people.

 

You missed my point... I know that younger oriented movies are more front than adult oriented ones, I'm saying that US had a more broad appeal than AQP (which played basically to adults only) which should help it's legs, got it? Both movies also played heavier with adults btw.

[SLAM!]

I'll say that, at my showing last Friday night, there was a surprising amount of older folks in the audience. Of course, the R rating restricts how many teenagers can even see the film. But most older folks aren't into horror from my experience, so I think it's still pretty significant.

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

5 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

A 3.0 multiplier for a movie opening at $70,000,000 still equates to a higher gross than a 3.85 multiplier for a movie that opens at $50,000,000. We are staring at you crazy because a movie having a better multiplier does not mean shit when your movie is going to hit $200,000,000 at the domestic box office while yours did not. Plenty have 3.0 multipliers, but how many have hit $200,000,000 at the domestic box office? Your entire crusade about multipliers is outrageous when grosses are what matters. It will be like someone bringing up Wonder Woman having a 4.0+ multiplier when bringing up Black Panther, even though Black Panther has a higher gross.  

 

If we start looking at the raw numbers only, ignoring the multiple then we can say that BVS was more beloved than several SH movies that grossed less than this just because it got a huge $330m, right? 

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

 

You missed my point... I know that younger oriented movies are more front than adult oriented ones, I'm saying that US had a more broad appeal than AQP (which played basically to adults only) which should help it's legs, got it? Both movies also played heavier with adults btw.

If the teen audience showed up in OW, I am not sure how it help legs (in term of multiplier)

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

Just now, Barnack said:

If the teen audience showed up in OW, I am not sure how it help legs (in term of multiplier)

 

Because adults will make up that difference later considering they take a longer time to check a movie than teens? 

[PenguinHyphy]

6 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

 

If we start looking at the raw numbers only, ignoring the multiple then we can say that BVS was more beloved than several SH movies that grossed less than this just because it got a huge $330m, right? 

This is a box office forum. What the hell are you even talking about? Can a moderator do something with this troll already? 

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

Just now, PenguinHyphy said:

This is a box office forum. What the hell are you even talking about? Can a moderator do something with this troll already? 

 

Multiples are part of a BOX OFFICE FORUM, am I a troll because I'm analyzing the multiple of a movie? Hilarious stuff. I know you don’t know what you’re taking about but you don’t need to insult members. 

[Barnack]

41 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

 

Because adults will make up that difference later considering they take a longer time to check a movie than teens? 

 

Say you have a movie that play a lot to the 50+ (like A Sully), that start 90% older adult, 10% YA or younger.

 

First weekend

9m from older adult

1m from younger

 

Second weekend

6m from older adult

0.5 from younger

 

Old up better with the older demo because they tend to leg it out. A 6.5m second weekend 35% drop.

 

Now it would have been a 50/50 type of scenario with the same legs by demo:

 

First weekend

5m from older adult

5m from younger

 

Second weekend

3.333m from older adult

2.5 from younger

 

A 5.833 second weekend, near 42% drop.

 

I really do not follow here, except if adults didn't show up the OW of the US movie and would start to come later than usual for some reason ?

[PDC1987]

1 hour ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

 

IT opened $50m higher and had a better second weekend drop, next argument? 

MARGINALLY better, and it didn't lose all of its IMAX screens to a ($45.9 million) opener in it's second weekend.

 

Next argument?

[The Panda]

16 minutes ago, PDC1987 said:

MARGINALLY better, and it didn't lose all of its IMAX screens to a ($45.9 million) opener in it's second weekend.

 

Next argument?

It’s also worth taking into consideration Hurricane Irma hit during It’s OW.  I think that helped its second weekend drop.

[PDC1987]

2 hours ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

1.) I'm pretty sure I know more than you.

 

2.) Opening with huge numbers isn't an excuse to weak multiples, and neither opening low is a guarantee of great legs.

 

3.) Movies like The Gallows and Sinister 2 opened below $10m and barely got a 2.0x because they couldn't secure theaters for a long time, a movie like US that opened at $70m can held theaters far more time than a movie that opens below $20m.

 

4.) The Conjuring 1 broke the OW record for an original Horror movie back in the day and managed to get a 3.4x despite facing MASSIVE competition.

 

5.) A Quiet Place broke the same record and managed to get a 3.8x.

 

6.) Both movies opened at the highest leves (back in the day) for an Horror movie, they all got great legs.

 

7.) The fact that it opened $20m above AQP and finished the second weekend doing the same numbers says it all.

 

8.) And I'm not even bringing the massive OW's ($200m+) that ended generating multiples above 3.0x.

 

9.) Claiming that a movie can't have great legs because it opened big is pure bullshit.

 

10.) But, keep trying. 

 

1.) I'm pretty sure you redefine delusion. Seriously child, try me. I can automatically rattle off facts and statistics regarding dozens upon dozens of topics to a degree that would make your head spin.

 

2.) The bigger you open the more demand you burn off upfront. This simple concept is apparently lost on you.

 

3.) Not how it works. PTA is infinitely more important than literal gross when it comes to films retaining theaters.

 

4.) The Conjuring burned through $41.9 million worth of demand on OW, compared to $71.1 million for Us.

 

5.) A Quiet Place burned through $50.2 million worth of demand on OW, compared to $71.1 million for Us.

 

6.) Those 2 movies also burned through $20.9 million and $29.2 million less demand on OW than Us.

 

7.) Yeah, it says that Us made roughly the same amount of money in it's 2nd weekend despite burning through $20.9 million more demand on OW.

 

8.) Good, because none of those are Horror films or even Thrillers, they are 4 quadrant blockbusters.

 

9.) Nobody is claiming that; you are simply comparing the 2nd weekend drop and potential overall legs of a genre film that was treated as a de facto sequel by the GA and burned though $71.1 million worth of demand on OW to the 2nd weekend drops and overall legs of 2 genre films that had no major built-in audiences and burned though $50.2 and $41.9 million worth of demand on OW.

 

10.) But, keep trolling.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Come on, people. That's enough.

 

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

12 hours ago, Barnack said:

 

Say you have a movie that play a lot to the 50+ (like A Sully), that start 90% older adult, 10% YA or younger.

 

First weekend

9m from older adult

1m from younger

 

Second weekend

6m from older adult

0.5 from younger

 

Old up better with the older demo because they tend to leg it out. A 6.5m second weekend 35% drop.

 

Now it would have been a 50/50 type of scenario with the same legs by demo:

 

First weekend

5m from older adult

5m from younger

 

Second weekend

3.333m from older adult

2.5 from younger

 

A 5.833 second weekend, near 42% drop.

 

I really do not follow here, except if adults didn't show up the OW of the US movie and would start to come later than usual for some reason ?

You're really missing my point.

All that I'm saying is:

 

US is playing to a broader audience than AQP, which should help it's legs since it is appealing to different quadrants, that's it. You're acting like US played bigger to teenagers on OW when in fact, it's biggest audience came from the Over 25 crowd.

 

Another thing you should have in mind is that US is playing really strong with black audiences, it had a 32% share on OW which is massive considering that the average black audience for an Horror movie is in the low 20%.

It's almost a four quadrant movie, it's playing with pretty much every demo out there which, once again, should help it's legs. 

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

12 hours ago, PDC1987 said:

MARGINALLY better, and it didn't lose all of its IMAX screens to a ($45.9 million) opener in it's second weekend.

 

Next argument?

 

IMAX is irrelevant to Horror movies, that's why these kind of movies weren't even released there few years ago. Also, IMAX didn't even bother reporting the gross, which must mean that it was really weak.

 

I doubt losing IMAX made a huge difference on it's gross.

Dumbo is a family movie, it had zero impact on US. 

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

12 hours ago, PDC1987 said:

 

1.) I'm pretty sure you redefine delusion. Seriously child, try me. I can automatically rattle off facts and statistics regarding dozens upon dozens of topics to a degree that would make your head spin.

 

2.) The bigger you open the more demand you burn off upfront. This simple concept is apparently lost on you.

 

3.) Not how it works. PTA is infinitely more important than literal gross when it comes to films retaining theaters.

 

4.) The Conjuring burned through $41.9 million worth of demand on OW, compared to $71.1 million for Us.

 

5.) A Quiet Place burned through $50.2 million worth of demand on OW, compared to $71.1 million for Us.

 

6.) Those 2 movies also burned through $20.9 million and $29.2 million less demand on OW than Us.

 

7.) Yeah, it says that Us made roughly the same amount of money in it's 2nd weekend despite burning through $20.9 million more demand on OW.

 

8.) Good, because none of those are Horror films or even Thrillers, they are 4 quadrant blockbusters.

 

9.) Nobody is claiming that; you are simply comparing the 2nd weekend drop and potential overall legs of a genre film that was treated as a de facto sequel by the GA and burned though $71.1 million worth of demand on OW to the 2nd weekend drops and overall legs of 2 genre films that had no major built-in audiences and burned though $50.2 and $41.9 million worth of demand on OW.

 

10.) But, keep trolling.

2. That's a lazy argument that people love to use to justify the weak legs of a movie, I already brought you several examples of movies that opened with massive numbers and still had great multiples. If US reaches 3.0x (which will be a struggle), it will end closer to IT's 2.7x, a movie that opened $50m higher than US, than of AQP's 3.8x, a movie that opened only $20m below US. In theory, it should've much more closer to AQP than IT, don't you think? 

 

3. If you open with small numbers, theaters will always ditch your movie before one that had a bigger OW, that's the reason why US is going to be in far more theaters on weekend 3, than GO, despite GO certainly having a better PTA (and holds) than US will have.

 

4/5) I already explained on the argument #2.

 

😎 US is playing strong to teens, adults and older people, it's also crossing over white, black and Latin audiences, it isn't a four quadrant movie but it's closer to one.

 

9) That's exactly what you're doing? Lol. Repeating over and over again that US can't have great legs because it opened $20m bigger than AQP. 

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

10 hours ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Come on, people. That's enough.

 

 

Yeah, I'm done with this.

 

I was having a nice discussion with you and my friend @PenguinHyphy, but then came this Madonna stan and started offending me for no reason. It's a waste of time.

Edited April 2, 2019 by The Horror of Lucas Films