BLACK PANTHER | 646.8 M overseas ● 1346.9 M worldwide

[Valonqar]

48 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

WOM in Asia looks incredible.

 

Doing better universally than Dr. Strange means 450 m OS is the floor.

 

In fact, due to an overperformance and good WOM in many places, I think 500-550 m OS is very much on the table (like Thor Ragnarok).

 

Which also means 1 billion WW is a very real possibility.

 

That would make Black Panther the biggest non-sequel for a solo superhero in history. And the first to cross 1 billion.

 

And the first to do it w/o RDJ on MCU side. 

Edited February 16, 2018 by Valonqar

[fastclock]

From Hollywood Reporter:

 

Black Panther is also making a major push overseas, where it is likewise out-performing expectations (American films with a black cast are perceived to face challenges internationally). The movie is opening in virtually every major market timed to its U.S. launch — exceptions are Russia (Feb. 22), Japan (March 1) and China (March 9) — and has collected a mighty $81.5 million through Friday. The U.K., where Black Panther launched on Tuesday, leads so far with $14.4 million, followed by South Korea ($14.3 million), Australia ($4 million), Brazil ($3.8 million) and Taiwan ($3.5 million).

[Carlangonz]

$2.51M OD in Mexico, aiming towards:

 

- 5th biggest debut for a MCU title behind CW, both Avengers and IM3

- Highest OW for a first solo movie beating SM:HC*

- Best February opener beating Deadpool

 

* I'm not considering Suicide Squad since is more a team-up than a solo.

Edited February 17, 2018 by Carlangonz

[Sam]

That Taiwan number looks really good. On par with Brazil

Edited February 17, 2018 by Sam

[the beast]

12 minutes ago, Carlangonz said:

$2.51M OD in Mexico, aiming towards:

 

- 5th biggest debut for a MCU title behind CW, both Avengers and IM3

- Highest OW for a first solo movie beating WW*

- Best February opener beating Deadpool

 

* I'm not considering Suicide Squad since is more a team-up than a solo.

what you expecting it to do for weekend in total in mexico

[Carlangonz]

5 minutes ago, the beast said:

what you expecting it to do for weekend in total in mexico

$8.5M-$9M 

 

 

[Valonqar]

 

BP is going to be the first MCU movie to cross 1B WW w/o RDJ. It has insane WOM everywhere, it's super rewatchable (if you can find tickets that is, ha, ha) looks different which excites people, and then there's Kendrick Lamar. Popular songs are known to boost the boxoffice (Furious 7, Skyfall). It's a perfect storm, people. 500M milestone dom will happen plus 500M milestone OS. 

 

I'm cautious about 1B predix cause they tend to be jinxy but this is a done deal so caution out of the window. This has what SMH and Coco didn't (most recent failed-to-reach the milestone).

Edited February 17, 2018 by Valonqar

[fabiopazzo2]

I’m not sure BP can reach 1B but DAMN!!! This numbers is crazy! 

[Fullbuster]

29 minutes ago, Sam said:

That Taiwan number looks really good. On par with Brazil

 

The Taiwan number is definitely very impressive, this market is much smaller than Brazil after all.

[the beast]

With a estimated Overseas weekend of $150m+, what is it expected to do in current markets without Russia (Feb 26), Japan (Mar 3) and China (Mar 9)?

[Son Tung M-TP]

The massive numbers in Asia have completely debunked the bullshit myth that Asians are racist against black people. 

Edited February 17, 2018 by Son Tung M-TP

[Valonqar]

58 minutes ago, Son Tung M-TP said:

The massive numbers in Asia have completely debunked the bullshit myth that Asians are racist against black people. 

Massive numbers for Furious franchise and have already debunked that but some people just choose to ignore it. This only confirms it. 

[KJsooner]

3 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

I’m not sure BP can reach 1B but DAMN!!! This numbers is crazy! 

 

Under 800 million? Lmao 😂 

[Valonqar]

4 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

I’m not sure BP can reach 1B but DAMN!!! This numbers is crazy! 

It's a done deal. You can smell it. With movies that explode like this you just know. 

[babz06]

4 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Massive numbers for Furious franchise and have already debunked that but some people just choose to ignore it. This only confirms it. 

I don’t know why they myth continues to be pushed. I mean Get Out made huge numbers in South Korea.

[manny1234]

Regarding Black Panther potentials in Japan here is this from Corpse from WOKJ:

"Not much. There just isn't much of an audience for Marvel or DC in Japan, unless Spider-Man or Iron Man are heavily involved. ¥1 billion ($9/10 million) would be a successful total. Regarding black skin... I don't know."

Edited February 18, 2018 by manny1234

[Fullbuster]

5 hours ago, babz06 said:

I don’t know why they myth continues to be pushed. I mean Get Out made huge numbers in South Korea.

 

i think it's because of the race riots that happened in Los Angeles in 1992, opposing Korean Americans to African Americans...that could explain why US members see Asia as particularly racist toward black people.

 

 

[Fullbuster]

8 hours ago, Valonqar said:

It's a done deal. You can smell it. With movies that explode like this you just know. 

 

It's never a done deal until it's done. Let's see the legs first.

[Valonqar]

2 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

 

It's never a done deal until it's done. Let's see the legs first.

I get your point but look at the numbers It's going to do 500M+ in US alone. OW guaranteed that. Yes, you can bring up AoU as a movie with near 200M OW that ended up with 450M finish. But this is a different situation. It has less competition. It's a cross-cultural event that's drawing both MCU regulars and people who usually skip SH movies or don't go to cinemas often. It's much better movie than AoU. It won't make less than 400-450M OS. It's happening. 

 

I do appreciate your caution. I'm usually like that too. 

[the beast]

OS Analysis:

 

Deadline is projecting a 150m+ OS weekend which is up quite a bit from what was projected on Friday which was around 120m+. Could finish the weekend with 160m+ and end up with a worldwide opening weekend of 350-365m which is 15th on the all time list and is without China which could bring in 40-50m+ OW depending on reception. Current markets will probably bring us to 450m (160m (2.8) = 450m) and could bring another 85-105m in China. 10-15m in Japan and 15-20m+ in Russia for a possible OS range of 560m-592.5m which combined with around 475m-600m Domestic gives us a final range worldwide of $1,035m-$1,192.5m

 

Could definitely be over predicting this or could actually over perform in China which is probably unlikely according to our sources in the Chinese thread

 

Edited February 18, 2018 by the beast