AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR | 1369.5 M overseas ● 2048.4 M worldwide

[Taruseth]

10 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

you actually comparing the year when the sales reached its peak to the year when the sales were in its weakest , we all 2001, german cinema are in its peak. and 2014, was a weak year, not only in germany, but globally, only 1 1b movie TF4 and that is thanks to china

But even 2016 and 2017 were barely better than 2014 in adm. sold.

 

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

But even 2016 and 2017 were barely better than 2014 in adm. sold.

 

I am referring to box office gross, 

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

I am referring to box office gross, 

But as stated, the recent partly strong increases in costs, also the reduced % for the cinema owners... on paper is not the same with how it is for the other side of the business.

They need a recogniseable increase now (since I think 2y+), or more theaters will close or ...

[Taruseth]

4 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

I am referring to box office gross, 

Even was less than 10% above 2001. Still horrible

[boxofficefreak]

22 hours ago, Ephemeris said:

Some constructive criticism on that, if you don’t mind:

 

Using percentage of total gross up to a certain point is not a very good way to compare legs, since it doesn't take into account how good legs have been up until this point; one movie could have made 10% of its total gross this weekend while IW got 3.35%. Using % of total gross completely ignores that. It doesn’t take into account at how much harder it would be for IW to add another 10% to its final gross compared to that other movie. For that reason, using multipliers is the way to go when comparing legs imo.

 

While you may not have weekend numbers, you could use week multipliers instead without putting in a huge amount of extra effort. Using your spreadsheet:

• Avengers was at $604,485,663 after last weekend and $685,415,461 after this weekend, so it made $80,929,798 in the last 7 days.
• Age of Ultron was at $582,351,230 after last weekend and $640,336,480 after this weekend, so it made $57,985,250 in the last 7 days.
• Infinity War was at $858,963,242 after last weekend and an estimated $916,200,000 after this weekend, so it made an estimated $57,236,758 in the last 7 days.

Final totals outside of China according to boxofficemojo(guessing you already what they made in Japan up until their 4th weekends?):

Avengers: $809,155,078

Age of Ultron: $706,287,826

 

So if IW has the same week multiplier as those, it would end up with:

Avengers: 916,200,000+((809,155,078-685,415,461)/80,929,798)*57,236,758 = $1,003.7M

Age of Ultron: 916,200,000+((706,287,826-640,336,480)/57,985,250)*57,236,758 = $981.3M

 

This doesn't yet take into account that IW got hit pretty hard on the weekend compared to the weekdays, which means its bound to drop more than usual on the next few weekdays... So if we used weekend multipliers instead, these numbers would be lower(and that's probably more realistic), but I barring unusual weeks like this(where there's a disparity between weekday and weekend drops), using the full week multiplier would give a good estimate.

 

I think $970M OS-China would be a realistic target atm.

 

0 sum game, the reason you can't use those weekend numbers relative to weeks is because weekend numbers from BOM/numbers/etc count some countries with 4 day weekends, 5 day etc. Also data recorded for past movies are not readily available for Mon-Thursday #s. 

Commonality was the reason for using BOM/numbers reported weekend numbers as it's the same reference point for the three movies. Compiled grosses for all countries compared to Infinity war at same point in time. 

I think it serves as a good reference point.

 

I don't think anyone is arguing that this is a perfect model and it's used primarily b/c I was annoyed with lack of comparison charts available.  

[1Robert1]

23 hours ago, Ephemeris said:

Some constructive criticism on that, if you don’t mind:

 

Using percentage of total gross up to a certain point is not a very good way to compare legs, since it doesn't take into account how good legs have been up until this point; one movie could have made 10% of its total gross this weekend while IW got 3.35%. Using % of total gross completely ignores that. It doesn’t take into account at how much harder it would be for IW to add another 10% to its final gross compared to that other movie. For that reason, using multipliers is the way to go when comparing legs imo.

 

While you may not have weekend numbers, you could use week multipliers instead without putting in a huge amount of extra effort. Using your spreadsheet:

• Avengers was at $604,485,663 after last weekend and $685,415,461 after this weekend, so it made $80,929,798 in the last 7 days.
• Age of Ultron was at $582,351,230 after last weekend and $640,336,480 after this weekend, so it made $57,985,250 in the last 7 days.
• Infinity War was at $858,963,242 after last weekend and an estimated $916,200,000 after this weekend, so it made an estimated $57,236,758 in the last 7 days.

Final totals outside of China according to boxofficemojo(guessing you already what they made in Japan up until their 4th weekends?):

Avengers: $809,155,078

Age of Ultron: $706,287,826

 

So if IW has the same week multiplier as those, it would end up with:

Avengers: 916,200,000+((809,155,078-685,415,461)/80,929,798)*57,236,758 = $1,003.7M

Age of Ultron: 916,200,000+((706,287,826-640,336,480)/57,985,250)*57,236,758 = $981.3M

 

This doesn't yet take into account that IW got hit pretty hard on the weekend compared to the weekdays, which means its bound to drop more than usual on the next few weekdays... So if we used weekend multipliers instead, these numbers would be lower(and that's probably more realistic), but I barring unusual weeks like this(where there's a disparity between weekday and weekend drops), using the full week multiplier would give a good estimate.

 

I think $970M OS-China would be a realistic target atm.

OS Infinity Wars was released during one weekend (except Russia) but Avengens and Ultron had so many diffrent release dates. It's was way easier for Avengers and Ultron to have late legs...

 

[Ephemeris]

 

27 minutes ago, 1Robert1 said:

OS Infinity Wars was released during one weekend (except Russia) but Avengens and Ultron had so many diffrent release dates. It's was way easier for Avengers and Ultron to have late legs...

 

That doesn't matter to those calculations though. It has already been taken into account. That was the whole point of his spreadsheet.

1 hour ago, boxofficefreak said:

 

0 sum game, the reason you can't use those weekend numbers relative to weeks is because weekend numbers from BOM/numbers/etc count some countries with 4 day weekends, 5 day etc. Also data recorded for past movies are not readily available for Mon-Thursday #s. 

Yes, I already said in my post that using weekend multipliers take too much effort. But you can still use week multipliers like I did in my post, and that would improve the results.

[1Robert1]

9 minutes ago, Ephemeris said:

 

That doesn't matter to those calculations though. It has already been taken into account. That was the whole point of his spreadsheet.

 

 

It does matter. Previous movies got best possible release dates in diffrent countries, and infity wars was released during one weekend, because of that IW will have stronger competions against local movies. 

[boxofficefreak]

10 minutes ago, Ephemeris said:

 

That doesn't matter to those calculations though. It has already been taken into account. That was the whole point of his spreadsheet.

Yes, I already said in my post that using weekend multipliers take too much effort. But you can still use week multipliers like I did in my post, and that would improve the results.

I guess we can agree to disagree. I fancy using aggregate data and you prefer a moving average model (ema)

[Ephemeris]

46 minutes ago, boxofficefreak said:

I guess we can agree to disagree. I fancy using aggregate data and you prefer a moving average model (ema)

Can I ask why?

 

A movie that added 20% to its cumulative total in the latest week will clearly have a way easier time adding another 10% to its total than a movie that added only 1% in the latest week. Using the aggregate model ignores that entirely and would give the exact same result to both of those, when it's already obvious one of them will make waaaayyyyy more going forward. It could give the 2nd movie something ridiculous like a 20x bigger multiplier, while the 2nd movie has actually shown to be way more frontloaded than the first one... So I don’t understand why you would prefer the aggregate method over ema when it comes to box office? What advantages does it have that would warrant ignoring this (pretty massive) flaw, in your opinion? Just curious.

[BardCrank]

Shouldn't someone update the title ?

[Finnick]

AIW SEEMS TO BE HOLDING WELL on OS WEEKDAYS: $18.5M OS IN TWO DAYS, (Monday and Tuesday): Total: $1.841B

 

 

Edited May 23, 2018 by Finnick

[Valonqar]

Will it reach 1.9B by the end of this week? 

[Lordmandeep]

2 minutes ago, Finnick said:

AIW SEEMS TO BE HOLDING WELL, OS WEEKDAYS $18.5M OS IN TWO DAYS,

 

 

 

Seems should do 955 overseas minus china by Sunday

 

2 billion is on target 

[raulbalarezo]

5 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Will it reach 1.9B by the end of this week? 

Easily 

[Asyulus]

7 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Seems should do 955 overseas minus china by Sunday

 

2 billion is on target 

What was the OS -C total by last Sunday? (May 20)

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, raulbalarezo said:

Easily 

Yass!

[Lordmandeep]

Just now, Asyulus said:

What was the OS -C total by last Sunday? (May 20)

918

 

Its at 928 now 

[Ephemeris]

Boxofficemojo has a more precise OS number:

 

Foreign: $1,239,700,000

[1Robert1]

2 hours ago, Finnick said:

AIW SEEMS TO BE HOLDING WELL on OS WEEKDAYS: $18.5M OS IN TWO DAYS, (Monday and Tuesday): Total: $1.841B

 

 

 

Are you sure it's just 2 days? We already have wednesday numbers from China. It made around 12 mln $ in China in 3 days, so OS-China would be 6.5 mln.