AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR | 1369.5 M overseas ● 2048.4 M worldwide

[Fullbuster]

Asia will undoubtedly the most interesting to follow, I can see a moderate increase in Europe as well Latin America could surprise.

[PanaMovie]

I think the movie is going to increase everywhere on opening weekend but not on totals...this movie is going to be very frontloaded not matter the quality IMO and then we have deadpool 2...

 

Maybe 900-960M OS but under a billion

[Muzdt]

              AIW              TLJ              BP    
        Tot     Average  Tot     Average  Tot     Average
T-7      17,751   3,550                     1,768     295
T-6      20,201   4,040                     2,117     353
T-5      22,713   4,543                     2,508     418
T-4      25,381   5,076                     4,467     745
T-3                                         7,755   1,293
T-2                        9,639   2,410   10,346   1,724
T-1                       13,507   3,377   16,386   2,731
T                         21,196   5,299   31,136   5,189

[Valonqar]

59 minutes ago, PanaMovie said:

I think the movie is going to increase everywhere on opening weekend but not on totals...this movie is going to be very frontloaded not matter the quality IMO and then we have deadpool 2...

 

Maybe 900-960M OS but under a billion

Fuck, how does Furious go over 1B OS (twice so far)? China boost only? 

[PanaMovie]

10 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Fuck, how does Furious go over 1B OS (twice so far)? China boost only? 

I think that's the principal reason but who knows maybe Avengers can do it after all

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, PanaMovie said:

I think that's the principal reason but who knows maybe Avengers can do it after all

I can't see how they miss 1B OS unless DP2 steals all the audience once released. 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I can't see how they miss 1B OS unless DP2 steals all the audience once released. 

Well, IW needs to beat or get close to F7 & F8’s grosses in China also. Those films made around $385-395M over there. Films that performs much stronger have good chances for over $1B OS, so this will go over Ultron.

[George Parr]

17 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Fuck, how does Furious go over 1B OS (twice so far)? China boost only? 

Yes, it is almost all about China. If you take the top 10 internationally and then subtract the numbers froim China, you end up with this:

 

#1 Avatar 1.823b (was #1 with China)

#2 Titanic 1.484b (was #2)

#3 TFA 1.007b (was #4)

#4 HP7.2 ~900m (was #7)

#5 Frozen 827m (was #10)

#6 The Avengers 809m (was #9)

#7 Jurassic World 791m (was #5)

#8 Furios 7 773m (was #3)

#9 Age of Ultron 706m (was #8)

#10 Fate of the Furious 617m (was #6)

 

The last two actually fall behind quite a few other movies, like Minions (~755m), POTC4 (735m), Skyfall (744m), with quite a few more coming in ahead of F8 but not AoU.

 

[fabiopazzo2]

1 hour ago, PanaMovie said:

I think the movie is going to increase everywhere on opening weekend but not on totals...this movie is going to be very frontloaded not matter the quality 

🤔 another HP7!? 

[Fullbuster]

In France it's really hot and sunny, people love to be outside...if this weather persisits next week then Avengers IW could suffer from it, it's rarely good for movies.

[fabiopazzo2]

there will be good weather until Wednesday in Europe 

[Fullbuster]

2 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

there will be good weather until Wednesday in Europe 

 

Indeed, I just watched, that's exactly that where I live lol + rainy weekend.

 

Well, Avengers IW is gonna be lucky if these forecasts become true

[peludo]

58 minutes ago, George Parr said:

Yes, it is almost all about China. If you take the top 10 internationally and then subtract the numbers froim China, you end up with this:

 

#1 Avatar 1.823b (was #1 with China)

#2 Titanic 1.484b (was #2)

#3 TFA 1.007b (was #4)

#4 HP7.2 ~900m (was #7)

#5 Frozen 827m (was #10)

#6 The Avengers 809m (was #9)

#7 Jurassic World 791m (was #5)

#8 Furios 7 773m (was #3)

#9 Age of Ultron 706m (was #8)

#10 Fate of the Furious 617m (was #6)

 

The last two actually fall behind quite a few other movies, like Minions (~755m), POTC4 (735m), Skyfall (744m), with quite a few more coming in ahead of F8 but not AoU.

 

ROTK did 732 without China. Over Ultron and F8 too

[Mr Impossible]

So that WW opening record is locked right? 

[Stewart]

7 minutes ago, Mr Impossible said:

So that WW opening record is locked right? 

Possible but a stretch since China's ~$180m opening won't happen till May 11th

[KP1025]

7 minutes ago, Mr Impossible said:

So that WW opening record is locked right? 

Since China isn't opening on the same weekend, it looks like IW would require an OS opening in the vicinity of $300 million to break the WW opening record (assuming a domestic OW range of $230-250 million). DH2 is the only film to have surpassed that milestone without China ($314 million OS-China OW), with TFA coming pretty close as well ($281 million OS-China OW).

[fabiopazzo2]

13 minutes ago, Mr Impossible said:

So that WW opening record is locked right? 

Absolutely no without China but still in play! 

 

Negative scenario: 250M OS+ 205M Dom= 455M OW

 

My scenario: 275/280M OS+ 210-225M dom= 490/510M OW

 

ULTRA POSITIVE SCENARIO: 310/320M OS+ 240M Dom = 550/560M OW

[fabiopazzo2]

5 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Since China isn't opening on the same weekend, it looks like IW would require an OS opening in the vicinity of $300 million to break the WW opening record (assuming a domestic OW range of $230-250 million). DH2 is the only film to have surpassed that milestone without China ($314 million OS-China OW), with TFA coming pretty close as well ($281 million OS-China OW).

Wow ... only HP7 reaches + 300 million without China? And SW7 had a very big opening weekend in many markets!

[Fullbuster]

21 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Possible but a stretch since China's ~$180m opening won't happen till May 11th

 

Wait what??

[MattW]

16 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Absolutely no without China but still in play! 

 

Negative scenario: 250M OS+ 205M Dom= 455M OW

 

My scenario: 275/280M OS+ 210-225M dom= 490/510M OW

 

ULTRA POSITIVE SCENARIO: 310/320M OS+ 240M Dom = 550/560M OW

Pretty  much my thinking as well. OS less China probably in the neighborhood of TFA, better in some territories and worse in others, ultimately balancing out more or less, plus domestic should push it into the 490-520 range.  Outside shot at Fast 8's $542m but I wouldn't bet on it.