Cooper Legion Posted May 27, 2018 Share Posted May 27, 2018 365 China 670 DOM Would only need 965 from OS-China. It will be close, but I still think it will get there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quigley Posted May 27, 2018 Share Posted May 27, 2018 (edited) Disney has crossed $4B WW this year ($4.12B). http://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-star-wars-story-opening-weekend-deadpool-2-avengers-infinity-war-china-global-international-box-office-1202398686/ Existing movies will propel it to about $4.5B. Then it's got Incredibles 2, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Christopher Robin, The Nutcracker, Wreck-It Ralph 2 and Mary Poppins Returns. I2: $800M-$1B AM2: $650-850M CR: $200-400M Nutcracker: $400-700M WR2: $550-750M MP2: $600-900M Low end: $3.2B High end: $4.6B Assuming WR2 and MP2 will make some of their money in 2019, the range is revised to $2.45-3.65B. That means a final total of $6.95-8.15B. On the low end, that is the second-biggest yearly total ever for studio, behind Disney's own $7.6B and ahead of current #2, Universal's $6.9B. At the high end it is an all-time record and the first time a studio would cross $8B. Edited May 27, 2018 by Quigley Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted May 27, 2018 Share Posted May 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Quigley said: Disney has crossed $4B WW this year ($4.12B). http://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-star-wars-story-opening-weekend-deadpool-2-avengers-infinity-war-china-global-international-box-office-1202398686/ Existing movies will propel it to about $4.5B. Then it's got Incredibles 2, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Christopher Robin, The Nutcracker, Wreck-It Ralph 2 and Mary Poppins Returns. I2: $800M-$1B AM2: $650-850M CR: $200-400M Nutcracker: $400-700M WR2: $550-750M MP2: $600-900M Low end: $3.2B High end: $4.6B Assuming WR2 and MP2 will make some of their money in 2019, the range is revised to $2.45-3.65B. That means a final total of $6.95-8.15B. On the low end, that is the second-biggest yearly total ever for studio, behind Disney's own $7.6B and ahead of current #2, Universal's $6.9B. At the high end it is an all-time record and the first time a studio would cross $8B. Good analysis. However I think you're better swapping CR and Nutcracker totals, and I think AM2 can go higher. Nice to see that, even on the low end, Disney is killin' it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quigley Posted May 27, 2018 Share Posted May 27, 2018 31 minutes ago, feasby007 said: Good analysis. However I think you're better swapping CR and Nutcracker totals, and I think AM2 can go higher. Nice to see that, even on the low end, Disney is killin' it I guess some of the individual grosses may be slightly off on either side, but the important thing is that, when all of them are added together, I would like to think that the range is quite accurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boxofficefreak Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 We shall see, maybe there's a bump in actuals similar to last weekend. Eurocup def had an effect and world cup coming up in 2.5 weeks. Will be interesting for sure. Avengers Ultron legs - $991.704M Avengers Legs - 1000.690M 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 I still believe in: $675 mln DOM $975 mln OS-Ch $355 mln China = +$2.005B WW 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asyulus Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 Since using Ultron’s OS -C legs results to $991m, and the fact that in terms of domestic IW has surpassed AoU multiplier, I’m not seeing how IW drops to more than 40-45% from the subsequent weekends. Weekend OS percentage will eventually drop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asyulus Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 DOM: $670m OS: $970m China: $360m (POTUS tracking) For me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepItU25071906 Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 (edited) as I've said before: 2 bln is still a big question's mark. Welcome in 2010th: you can be enormous, but if you can plenty rivalse in the same time- theaters will cut you legs anyway. Edited May 28, 2018 by KeepItU25071906 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 (edited) 4 hours ago, Asyulus said: DOM: $670m OS: $970m China: $360m (POTUS tracking) For me. Avengers is going to be around $627m after MD. I don't see it making only $43m (after a $17.5m w/e) more with the next two weeks lacking serious competition and summer days. Avengers made another $51m after a $11.2m w/e. GOTG2 did another $49m and it had a 52.9% drop the next w/e against WW. Also Incredibles 2 is coming up. It may get double bills with that or more likely Disney will try to pump up Solo with them. Edited May 28, 2018 by TalismanRing 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asyulus Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 (edited) 8 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: Avengers is going to be around $627m after MD. I don't see it making only $43m (after a $17.5m w/e) more with the next two weeks lacking serious competition and summer days. Avengers made another $51m after a $11.2m w/e. GOTG2 did another $49m and it had a 52.9% drop the next w/e against WW. Also Incredibles 2 is coming up. It may get double bills with that or more likely Disney will try to pump up Solo with them. Just trying to get conservative.. DOM aside, I’m not sure whether Rth state IW Sunday as 6.8m or 5.8m, either typo or not. I’m still expecting $2b WW minimum and I’d be happy for that figure. Edited May 28, 2018 by Asyulus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Asyulus said: Just trying to get conservative.. DOM aside, I’m not sure whether Rth state IW Sunday as 6.8m or 5.8m, either typo or not. I’m still expecting $2b minimum and I’d be happy for that figure. I doubt it's a typo. 5.8 would mean ~ a 11% drop and previous MCU films only dropped 3-4% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asyulus Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 11 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: Avengers is going to be around $627m after MD. I don't see it making only $43m (after a $17.5m w/e) more with the next two weeks lacking serious competition and summer days. Avengers made another $51m after a $11.2m w/e. GOTG2 did another $49m and it had a 52.9% drop the next w/e against WW. Also Incredibles 2 is coming up. It may get double bills with that or more likely Disney will try to pump up Solo with them. Is the TA $11.2m figure 5th week or 6th? Also, how’s my OS prediction? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 Just now, Asyulus said: Is the TA $11.2m figure 5th week or 6th? Also, how’s my OS prediction? 6th (June 8-10) and I think that's about where AIW's 6th w/e lands as well and it should be over $640m by then Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asyulus Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: 6th (June 8-10) and I think that's about where AIW's 6th w/e lands as well and it should be over $640m by then $700m still in game? The weekend OS -C percentage drop doesn’t guarantee $2b WW yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, Asyulus said: $700m still in game? The weekend OS -C percentage drop doesn’t guarantee $2b WW yet. If Home Video wasn't releasing mid August and they gave it a re-release Labor Day push then $700m might still be in play. Without it - not likely 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 Not likely at all. With strong competition, Digital HD in late July and Blu-ray/DVD on August 14th this would finish with $670-680 mln. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quigley Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 54 minutes ago, Juby said: Not likely at all. With strong competition, Digital HD in late July and Blu-ray/DVD on August 14th this would finish with $670-680 mln. REPOSTING FROM DOMESTIC FORUM Infinity War's Sunday is $6.63M. Monday will drop 20% (at most) to $5.3M. The long weekend total will be $22.7M and the cume-to-date will be $627.9M (at least). Based on its $17.4M weekend, comparison with other Marvel movies's 3-day Memorial weekend gross suggest that it will have a multiplier around 2.2-2.6x [gross made from Memorial Day onwards divided by 3-day Memorial weekend]. This means that it will make about $660-668M. Even a Black Panther-like hold (3.36x) would only take it $680M. $700M is dead. -------------------------------------------------------------------- Continuing with OS box office Avengers will finish with $355-360M in China, according to the China experts (off-chance of $365M with extension). As for OS–China, using the same method as domestic: AoU's multiplier is 1.68x. Avengers's mulitplier is 2.97x. IM3's multiplier is 1.94x. Civil War's mulitplier is 2.48x. I'll choose a random range for Infinity War near the low end 2.1-2.5x. This gives a range of 946.2 + 13.9 x (2.1 OR 2.5) = $975-981M. ADD IT ALL UP: $1.990-$2.009B Too close to call. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GraceRandolph Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 Disney is so annoying with their early Blu-ray releases Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrylos 7 Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 On 27/5/2018 at 7:14 PM, Thrylos 7 said: Nah, it won’t do just around 60 million more , cause I expect it to be substantially higher with actuals, os+China+u.s . It will be between 1.990-2.010 in the end. We are at a point where every dollar matters and even small weekday and weekend grosses outside of the U.S will prove to be very significant. Quoting myself just to point out that the 1.904 from bom yesterday became 1.909,5 today and will surpass 1.910 when the u.s actuals comes so IW needs less than 90 million worldwide to reach 2 billion. Still seems like a lock to me as I have been preaching for ages.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...