AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR | 1369.5 M overseas ● 2048.4 M worldwide

[Fullbuster]

2 hours ago, peludo said:

Not too far from Ultron's figures. In China, openings are becoming bigger and legs lower. Ultron opened to $155m and finished with $240m. The difference is that Ultron had a 6-day OW (Tuesday-Sunday) and IW is having a 3-day OW. But at the end, the result would be the same. Unless IW explodes, SH genre has been pretty stable in China along last 4 years: 200-250 for Avengers films (I include Civil War here) and 100-125 for the rest of films.

 

Well, you never know...Movies like Coco and Black Panther went beyond expectations so Avengers IW reaching $300m cannot be excluded.

[peludo]

1 hour ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Well, you never know...Movies like Coco and Black Panther went beyond expectations so Avengers IW reaching $300m cannot be excluded.

I do not exclude anything. In fact I think it is more probable to make over 300 than under 200. But if I had to bet, I would say it makes something in the middle. Probably something like 250-275.

 

Btw, it is absolutely true that Coco did way more than expectations, but I do not think BP did anything special in China. Maybe some people were expecting here to be lower than usual MCU flicks, but the reality is that it has done the same than every MCU film since IM3. If I am not wrong, Ant-Man did a similar result in local currency 3 years ago, for example.

[Muzdt]

              AIW              TLJ              BP    
        Tot     Average  Tot     Average  Tot     Average
T-7      17,751   3,550                     1,768     295
T-6      20,201   4,040                     2,117     353
T-5      22,713   4,543                     2,508     418
T-4      25,381   5,076                     4,467     745
T-3      28,832   5,766                     7,755   1,293
T-2                        9,639   2,410   10,346   1,724
T-1                       13,507   3,377   16,386   2,731
T                         21,196   5,299   31,136   5,189

[Muzdt]

              AIW              TLJ              BP    
        Tot     Average  Tot     Average  Tot     Average
T-7      17,751   3,550                     1,768     295
T-6      20,201   4,040                     2,117     353
T-5      22,713   4,543                     2,508     418
T-4      25,381   5,076                     4,467     745
T-3      28,832   5,766                     7,755   1,293
T-2      34,763   6,953    9,639   2,410   10,346   1,724
T-1                       13,507   3,377   16,386   2,731
T                         21,196   5,299   31,136   5,189

[bladels]

Presale for IW's already equaled 5% AOU's total gross in Vietnam which is nuts. Vietnam's box office mostly depends on walkup 

[justvision]

This thread from Reddit (Warning: do not drift to any other place in Reddit. There is high chance that you may get spoiled on IW) on how IW pre-sales are doing across the world.

 

I will be very surprised if IW does not break world-wide OW record, even without China and taking into account less favorable exhcange rates to USD.

[fabiopazzo2]

Just now, justvision said:

This thread from Reddit (Warning: do not drift to any other place in Reddit. There is high chance that you may get spoiled on IW) on how IW pre-sales are doing across the world.

 

I will be very surprised if IW does not break world-wide OW record, even without China and taking into account less favorable exhcange rates to USD.

Its not easy without China and Russia!! 

Reddit... 🤣

[justvision]

12 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Its not easy without China and Russia!! 

Reddit... 🤣

Current record of 541.9M by FotF can be broken if DOM surpass 245-250M, then OS-China needs only less than USD300M. In fact I am more sure of IW breaking WW OW record than Dom OW record.

Edited April 24, 2018 by justvision

[UserHN]

Social media reactions embargo was already lifted. I have to say 90% positive, 5% negative, 5% mixed. I'm expecting huge numbers for this film.

[peludo]

1 hour ago, justvision said:

Current record of 541.9M by FotF can be broken if DOM surpass 245-250M, then OS-China needs only less than USD300M. In fact I am more sure of IW breaking WW OW record than Dom OW record.

If IW manages the OW DOM record with, let's say, $260m, it would need a bit more than $280m to break the OW WW record. DH2 and TFA are the only films which have done it. DH2 did $314m and with way better ER than now. And TFA, with $281m, set ridiculous records, with 4 countries over $20m OW and one of them over $50m (UK).

 

Another big openers (without China):

Both F7 and F8 opened to $250m

Ultron $201m

TA $185m

Civil War $200m

JW $217m

 

Ultron and CW are the best possible references. I do not say it is impossible because this is a really special film, but it needs some shocking openings in European countries to reach it (Asia and Latin America will set records for sure, but I am not so sure with Europe). It needs to jump a 40% relative to Ultron opening... That is a huge jump.

 

Said this, I think the OW WW record figure is absurd if you can not compare the same markets. I would not be too worried about this. The disadvantage for not having China opening (possible 150-180m opening expected) is enormous.

Edited April 24, 2018 by peludo

[fabiopazzo2]

@peludo

what is your range? 

 

My scenario: 275/280M OS+ 210-225M dom= 490/510M OW

Edited April 24, 2018 by fabiopazzo2

[peludo]

Just now, fabiopazzo2 said:

@peludo

what is your range? 

DOM: 230 OW / 525 Total

OS-China: 250 OW (27-29th April) / 750 Total

China: 180 OW / 300 Total

WW: 1.575b (525 + 1.05b)

[fabiopazzo2]

Just now, peludo said:

DOM: 230 OW / 525 Total

OS-China: 250 OW (27-29th April) / 750 Total

China: 180 OW / 300 Total

WW: 1.575b (525 + 1.05b)

Yep 👍🏻 

[Stewart]

7 minutes ago, peludo said:

If IW manages the OW DOM record with, let's say, $260m, it would need a bit more than $280m to break the OW WW record. DH2 and TFA are the only films which have done it. DH2 did $314m and with way better ER than now. And TFA, with $281m, set ridiculous records, with 4 countries over $20m OW and one of them over $50m (UK).

 

Another big openers (without China):

Both F7 and F8 opened to $250m

Ultron $201m

TA $185m

Civil War $200m

JW $217m

 

Ultron and CW are the best possible references. I do not say it is impossible because this is a really special film, but it needs some shocking openings in European countries to reach it (Asia and Latin America will set records for sure, but I am not so sure with Europe). It needs to jump a 40% relative to Ultron opening... That is a huge jump.

 

Said this, I think the OW WW record figure is absurd if you can not compare the same markets. I would not be too worried about this. The disadvantage for not having China opening (possible 150-180m opening expected) is enormous.

I can confirm that UK will be lucky to manage half of TFAs opening. I'm not seeing nearly as much demand. I can still book half decent seats for Thursday afternoon. TFA I couldn't get decent seats until Sunday at the same point in time. And even then that was Sunday at like 9am. 

 

There is a chance, but I'd actually imagine Star Wars is more walkup friendly over here than avengers. Slightly different tastes than USA

[peludo]

Just now, feasby007 said:

I can confirm that UK will be lucky to manage half of TFAs opening. I'm not seeing nearly as much demand. I can still book half decent seats for Thursday afternoon. TFA I couldn't get decent seats until Sunday at the same point in time. And even then that was Sunday at like 9am. 

 

There is a chance, but I'd actually imagine Star Wars is more walkup friendly over here than avengers. Slightly different tastes than USA

That is the point. IMO, TFA opening in UK was even more impressive than in USA. And since 2015, UK has been hit by Brexit, which makes harder to make so big openings.

 

Star Wars is way more friendly and accepted in most European countries than SH films. Asia and LA have to make absurd numbers to compensate the drop in Europe relative to TFA OS opening.

[ZeeSoh]

37 minutes ago, peludo said:

If IW manages the OW DOM record with, let's say, $260m, it would need a bit more than $280m to break the OW WW record. DH2 and TFA are the only films which have done it. DH2 did $314m and with way better ER than now. And TFA, with $281m, set ridiculous records, with 4 countries over $20m OW and one of them over $50m (UK).

 

Another big openers (without China):

Both F7 and F8 opened to $250m

Ultron $201m

TA $185m

Civil War $200m

JW $217m

 

Ultron and CW are the best possible references. I do not say it is impossible because this is a really special film, but it needs some shocking openings in European countries to reach it (Asia and Latin America will set records for sure, but I am not so sure with Europe). It needs to jump a 40% relative to Ultron opening... That is a huge jump.

 

Said this, I think the OW WW record figure is absurd if you can not compare the same markets. I would not be too worried about this. The disadvantage for not having China opening (possible 150-180m opening expected) is enormous.

Neither Ultron nor Civil War opened simultaneously in all countries or even as many as IW is opening to which is why MCU movies are never in the top worldwide openings consideration coz they always stagger their releases. This will be the first time a big MCU movie is releasing in almost all countries at the same time. 

 

If it had opened in China this week too then it would have definitely broken the record easily but without China ita gonna be a bit of a stretch. 

 

And what IW will lose in Europe it will make up in Asia and LA. In SK for example it will probably make more in the opening weekend than what TFA did in its entire run

Edited April 24, 2018 by ZeeSoh

[fabiopazzo2]

15 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

I can confirm that UK will be lucky to manage half of TFAs opening. I'm not seeing nearly as much demand. I can still book half decent seats for Thursday afternoon. TFA I couldn't get decent seats until Sunday at the same point in time. And even then that was Sunday at like 9am. 

 

There is a chance, but I'd actually imagine Star Wars is more walkup friendly over here than avengers. Slightly different tastes than USA

SW is not a good comparison with Avengers in UK 

[fabiopazzo2]

In UK I’m expect 28-32M OW

[Stewart]

2 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

SW is not a good comparison with Avengers in UK 

I know, but the post was comparing WW opening to TFA and mentioned UK's $50m

 

1 minute ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

In UK I’m expect 28-32M OW

In USD, for the 4-day is possible, may be a bit high though. Cold and murky at the weekend though, so there's a chance.

 

I'd say more about £18m = $25m is more likely.

 

We will see

[fabiopazzo2]

1 minute ago, feasby007 said:

I know, but the post was comparing WW opening to TFA and mentioned UK's $50m

 

In USD, for the 4-day is possible, may be a bit high though. Cold and murky at the weekend though, so there's a chance.

 

I'd say more about £18m = $25m is more likely.

 

We will see

Yes in $ .