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AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR | 1369.5 M overseas ● 2048.4 M worldwide

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4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Ticket sales= admission? I thought my examples are all in nominal gross? I am pretty sure, the decline of attendance has largely compensated by inflation. The odd of having a 10m grooser in belgium aren't not much lower compared to 00s or 90s. Same goes to france, germany or many other, there is no trend showing that having a 50m grosser in these countries are becoming harder despite the drop in attendance. 

Inflation rates does not counteract the declines here IMHO (and I am not a fan of the most of the inflation rate theories anyway)

 

Btw, what will happen, if the admissions go to 1 person? (theoretically) there is a point were you won't be able to counter-calculate with inflation nor raised ticket prices.

Plus the % of ppl watching movies in 3D is even more declining, that adds too to the 'load'

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1 minute ago, terrestrial said:

as Pepsa already said.

Plus: In a lot of countries it is so bad a % of the cinemas had to close down.

Yes, the remaining ones can do over-work for certain hits, but in general some of the markets are declining, exchange rates can skew the view too.

Ticket prices too

Germany had in 2012 = 135.1m admissions, in 2017 it was only 122.3m admissions, beside the SW7 year, were it peaked up to 139.2m admissions, a ~ steady decline

In 2001 we had 177.9m admissions btw.

 

You can ping for example CJohn and ask him about the situation in Portugal (every year is a change, obviously), or e.g. peludo for Spain, as far as I remember from the posts 1-2y back the situation in their countries is worse

Still an admission argument, We all know since the emerging of tv, the cinematic attendance suffered big drop, and now with online streaming, the attendance took another hit. This is especially true in mature market, no one can deny.  But the nominal gross, regardless of lc or usd, has shown no increase in difficulty for movies to make about that kind of money.

 

The pace of inflation or premium charge in cinematic experience seem ok to cope with that drop. 

 

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4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Still an admission argument, We all know since the emerging of tv, the cinematic attendance suffered big drop, and now with online streaming, the attendance took another hit. This is especially true in mature market, no one can deny.  But the nominal gross, regardless of lc or usd, has shown no increase in difficulty for movies to make about that kind of money.

 

The pace of inflation or premium charge in cinematic experience seem ok to cope with that drop. 

 

the emerging of tv... yes, it is known, but different markets have different % how strongly that impated and still impacts

 

not acc to our version of BOM, they say decline in money too. btw, premium... the most cinemas (better said: no cinema I visit has it, there might be something in the big city 50 miles away, the ones there I use also do not offer premium seatings or...) here in my surrounding do not even have that.

What we have is a reduction on 1 day a week (not all cinemas do that) and cheaper matinee prices... But not high quality seats or whatever (maybe in Berlin or..?). We also do have only 2 IMAX in Germany, a country with ~ 1/4 of the size of the population of the US.

 

That is what I also meant with you can not counteract an admission decline till the very end

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6 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

the emerging of tv... yes, it is known, but different markets have different % how strongly that impated and still impacts

 

not acc to our version of BOM, they say decline in money too. btw, premium... the most cinemas (better said: no cinema I visit has it, there might be something in the big city 50 miles away, the ones there I use also do not offer premium seatings or...) here in my surrounding do not even have that.

What we have is a reduction on 1 day a week (not all cinemas do that) and cheaper matinee prices... But not high quality seats or whatever (maybe in Berlin or..?). We also do have only 2 IMAX in Germany, a country with ~ 1/4 of the size of the population of the US.

 

That is what I also meant with you can not counteract an admission decline till the very end

Inflation and premium charge are surely in upward trending, despite having only 2 IMAX screens(for real? even in malaysia we have like 6 IMAXs) 

 

Drop in attendance act as an opposite force to the inflation+premium charge. I can safely assume the net effect to either direction could be minimal to allow us to look at nominal gross straight away.

 

And to your decline in money of insidekino. I see no structural change of decline in term of nominal gross. It's all standard fluctuation 

 

And, of course , the counteract cannot be lasted like forever, but so far, the market , let's say Germany, showing no force of giving up.  

 

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26 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

You can ping for example CJohn and ask him about the situation in Portugal (every year is a change, obviously), or e.g. peludo for Spain, as far as I remember from the posts 1-2y back the situation in their countries is worse

Spain is recovering, but slowly. It is still far from the 2004 peak (140 million admissions). We barely cross 100 million now, but it is true that we come from very dark years with even less than 90 million admissions (barely 2 per person and year) because of economical crisis. In terms of gross, the market is making the same amount of money than 15 years ago.

 

Getting back to topic and concerning SH genre, IW is already the most attended SH film since Raimi's Spider-man trilogy (it has had a considerable boost in terms of admissions thanks to Fiesta del Cine). But it is true that SH genre is still a step (or two steps) behind the biggest franchises, like LOTR, Harry Potter, Star Wars or even POTC. As @titanic2187 has said, Spain is able to make big grosses independently of the crisis (8 apellidos vascos sold in the middle of the crisis the same amount of admissions than Avatar).

 

Could IW be an inflection point for the genre here? I do not think so. It is just that it is not a genre so beloved as it is in other countries. And I guess the same happens in other European markets. That's all.

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3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Inflation and premium charge are surely in upward trending, despite having only 2 IMAX screens(for real? even in malaysia we have like 6 IMAXs) 

Drop in attendance act as an opposite force to the inflation+premium charge. I can safely assume the net effect to either direction could be minimal to allow us to look at nominal gross straight away.

And to your decline in money of insidekino. I see no structural change of decline in term of nominal gross. It's all standard fluctuation 

And, of course , the counteract cannot be lasted like forever, but so far, the market , let's say Germany, showing no force of giving up. 

We had 3 IMAX at least, in one of our biggest cities even, they had to close down. Austria (a much smaller population than we have), has more then we do :wacko:


 

Spoiler

 

The problem is IMHO that without certain high earners the cinemas would be already closed down to a very high %

 

A rather old average viewing %, also - to a lesser degree - counting for movies like MCU (here in my region) makes me very concerned for the future of our cinema.

I see it more and more, no or nearly no young ones in the audience at times like 19:00 o'clock at a day without school the next day for movies for 12y or 16y old and older.

In A:IW sat more than a handful white-haired audience, here a lot watch only the translated version, I was in the OV version, so I thought, o.K, maybe visitors, bot no, there were Germans too.

 

We had a few local hits the last few years, these comedies in especial did a lot to help. But the peak of those seems already to be over. But some children movies and some non-serial other locals give me hope (but their average ticket price will be smaller). And no 3D for those.

What also is not typical for other countries:

of each ticket there goes a % to the ~ support of support worthy cultural or... local films.

In the past they had to give a bit less to the distributors, now e.g. Disney wants the full amount (maybe even a bit more than in the past, I forgot), to the degree some cinemas do not want to screen them anymore = the cinema owners get less than usual in Europe now too. (counts especially for the countryside cinemas too, they got in the past a small reduction, now not anymore from Disney)

So they have in theory to increase the price, but I do see recently a price-decline in some cinemas, as - depending on the economical power of a region (I mean small region) - the audience wont pay that.

I don't know... I think there might be a deeper sitting change upcoming (but do hope I am wrong about that).

My observation is, a big earner brings in more follow up audience for films they have seen the trailer, if the film there were for in the cinema left a good feeling. So I hope for a lot of those big earners

 

About the amounts per year: same costs (calculating in the inflation)? Same situation = Nope, higher minimum salary (new laws there too, since around 2y+or so) and... I do not see a steadiness in the on paper Brutto results as enough, to me it is a decline, as it is a decline for the cinemas (see also earlier)

 

I have a headache, might have written a bit too much today, I feel like I miss some points I really want to make, something is ~ wrong...

 

 

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Some constructive criticism on that, if you don’t mind:

 

Using percentage of total gross up to a certain point is not a very good way to compare legs, since it doesn't take into account how good legs have been up until this point; one movie could have made 10% of its total gross this weekend while IW got 3.35%. Using % of total gross completely ignores that. It doesn’t take into account at how much harder it would be for IW to add another 10% to its final gross compared to that other movie. For that reason, using multipliers is the way to go when comparing legs imo.

 

While you may not have weekend numbers, you could use week multipliers instead without putting in a huge amount of extra effort. Using your spreadsheet:

  • Avengers was at $604,485,663 after last weekend and $685,415,461 after this weekend, so it made $80,929,798 in the last 7 days.
  • Age of Ultron was at $582,351,230 after last weekend and $640,336,480 after this weekend, so it made $57,985,250 in the last 7 days.
  • Infinity War was at $858,963,242 after last weekend and an estimated $916,200,000 after this weekend, so it made an estimated $57,236,758 in the last 7 days.

Final totals outside of China according to boxofficemojo(guessing you already what they made in Japan up until their 4th weekends?):

Avengers: $809,155,078

Age of Ultron: $706,287,826

 

So if IW has the same week multiplier as those, it would end up with:

Avengers: 916,200,000+((809,155,078-685,415,461)/80,929,798)*57,236,758 = $1,003.7M

Age of Ultron: 916,200,000+((706,287,826-640,336,480)/57,985,250)*57,236,758 = $981.3M

 

This doesn't yet take into account that IW got hit pretty hard on the weekend compared to the weekdays, which means its bound to drop more than usual on the next few weekdays... So if we used weekend multipliers instead, these numbers would be lower(and that's probably more realistic), but I barring unusual weeks like this(where there's a disparity between weekday and weekend drops), using the full week multiplier would give a good estimate.

 

I think $970M OS-China would be a realistic target atm.

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4 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

I still don't understand the reasoning.

When superhero films didn't make huge money in europe or japan, people will come out and declare that the market is in decline.

Isn't your name and frozen made $250m in japan? 

Aren't we have 60m grosser or even 100m(Qu'est-ce qu'on a fait au Bon Dieu?) or even 166m(Intounchable) mega-grosser in france?

I thought german had SW7 at 110m? 

Isn't Ocho apellidos vascos made 77m in spain?

Italy had Quo vado at 73m? 

 

All these examples prove that mature market are well still alive!

And, not necessarily you need to be superhero friendly  to prove that your market is growing.

In Germany the gross in 2001 (€987M was HIGHER than the one in 2014! (€980M) actually higher than all years until 2012. And last year the gross was €1056M no matter to what we compare that, it is awful if we compare it with the GDP (grew from 2.1B to 3.26B) and admissions decreased from 178M to 123M (2015 had 140M)

 

But yeah, if a Movie is good and has the necessary Hype it sill can gross a lot.

 

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OS weekend came in $1.82M higher than estimated, OS total came in $2.83M higher than estimated:

 

Country
(click to view chart)
Rank Days in
Wknd
Weekend
Gross
%
Change
Screens/
Theaters
Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week #
FOREIGN TOTAL 2 3 $86,223,210 -69.4% 55 - $1,567,695 $1,221,530,515 4

 

 

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic:  $595,813,862    32.8%
Foreign:  $1,221,530,515    67.2%

Worldwide:  $1,817,344,377
Edited by Ephemeris
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18 minutes ago, Ephemeris said:

OS weekend came in $1.82M higher than estimated, OS total came in $2.83M higher than estimated:

 

Country
(click to view chart)
Rank Days in
Wknd
Weekend
Gross
%
Change
Screens/
Theaters
Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week #
FOREIGN TOTAL 2 3 $86,223,210 -69.4% 55 - $1,567,695 $1,221,530,515 4

 

 

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic:  $595,813,862    32.8%
Foreign:  $1,221,530,515    67.2%

Worldwide:  $1,817,344,377

How much of that was China?

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Just now, Fullbuster said:

Still hope for $2B?

 

Id it a lock? I was a bit out of the loop lately given I wasn't in great shape..

Possible to miss 2B with say 970, 350, 670 (1.99) but that basically requires the low end for all 3. Should settle around 2-2.05, not passing TFA :(         

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Possible to miss 2B with say 970, 350, 670 (1.99) but that basically requires the low end for all 3. Should settle around 2-2.05, not passing TFA :(         

 

 

 

As long as it passes $2B i'm happy, it doesn't have to pass TFA :)

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This 3.5M increase in WW total goes a long way in assuaging the fears of missing 2B. The range is still 1.99-2.01B IMO, but now it is headed for the high end instead of the low end.

 

Should be at 1.855B before the weekend, and should get around 55M for the weekend.

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8 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Possible to miss 2B with say 970, 350, 670 (1.99) but that basically requires the low end for all 3. Should settle around 2-2.05, not passing TFA :(         

 

 

#4 DOM and #4 WW still has a nice ring to it, I guess. Of course, it would have been better with #3 DOM, #3 OS, and #3 WW for a perfect match across categories. 

 

The Force Awakens: #1 DOM, #5 OS, #3 WW

Avatar: #2 DOM, #1 OS, #1 WW

Black Panther: #3 DOM, #37 OS, #9 WW

Infinity War: #4 DOM, #3 OS, #4 WW

Titanic: #5 DOM, #2 OS, #2 WW

Jurassic World: #6 DOM, #6 OS, #5 WW

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I AM EXCITE

 

 

 

PS: Also, great numbers for Infinity War weekend. Nice recovery against direct competition and I agree with those saying that next (Memorial) weekend will help us see if it still has a chance with $700m dom or not. 

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6 hours ago, Taruseth said:

In Germany the gross in 2001 (€987M was HIGHER than the one in 2014! (€980M) actually higher than all years until 2012. And last year the gross was €1056M no matter to what we compare that, it is awful if we compare it with the GDP (grew from 2.1B to 3.26B) and admissions decreased from 178M to 123M (2015 had 140M)

 

But yeah, if a Movie is good and has the necessary Hype it sill can gross a lot.

 

you actually comparing the year when the sales reached its peak to the year when the sales were in its weakest , we all 2001, german cinema are in its peak. and 2014, was a weak year, not only in germany, but globally, only 1 1b movie TF4 and that is thanks to china

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