The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[FantasticBeasts]

25 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

I believe JL should have better walk ups than a film like BVS or SS.I think,after BVS and SS, many people are waiting to see of the films is any good before buying the tickets.

I don't really see your logic.

You mean that with a better reception it will be more backloaded over the weekend?

[TheMovieman]

Personally, the only way I see walk-ups being better is if people feel this is more family friendly. BvS being so dark and Suicide Squad having, well, the name Suicide in the title (not to mention Harley Quinn), might've turned off some families taking their kids 10 and under. Of course, by the same token, some didn't have a problem taking their kids to an R-rated Deadpool so who knows.

[George Parr]

Not that there can be any certainty about these numbers, but maybe one can infer a bit from where TFA stood at certain points in time.

 

Around 20th of November 2015, reports came out that TFA had topped 50m in presales. Tuesday before release THR mentioned 100m+, with 50-60m for the opening weekend. Presales supposedly hit 120m+ by opening day. For Rogue One, total presales haven't been mentioned, I think. Only that the first few days were the second best ever behind TFA.

 

We are somewhat close to the date where the 50m reports for TFA came out, which happened to be a bit below half of the presales. If TLJ stands at 75% of Rogue One's total presales, it should easily surpass that movie's total, 150% wouldn't be a bad guess. Though obviously TLJ's lower demand compared to TFA could mean presales won't surge as much as TFA did. Maybe the schedule of the release will also have some impact, as christmas is quite a bit further from opening day than it was for TFA.

 

It's kind of a weird situation. For TFA we got some actual numbers, for Rogue One we didn't. In turn we have these theater-numbers for Rogue One, but not for TFA, meaning you can compare TLJ to Rogue One but not directly to TFA, and once reports about TLJ's presales come out, these can be compared to TFA, but not really to Rogue One.

[efialtes76]

37 minutes ago, TheMovieman said:

Personally, the only way I see walk-ups being better is if people feel this is more family friendly. BvS being so dark and Suicide Squad having, well, the name Suicide in the title (not to mention Harley Quinn), might've turned off some families taking their kids 10 and under. Of course, by the same token, some didn't have a problem taking their kids to an R-rated Deadpool so who knows.

JL is more family friendly than BvS and SS.

[TheMovieman]

1 minute ago, efialtes76 said:

JL is more family friendly than BvS and SS.

We'll see if sales bare that out. Should be interesting.

[Subzero]

JL is picking up steam ...it's up to 3% on MT, and fandango pulse is picking up quicker as well ....

[raegr]

1 minute ago, Subzero said:

JL is picking up steam ...it's up to 3% on MT, and fandango pulse is picking up quicker as well ....

Subzero, check PM.

 

I'm so happy! Ticket sales gonna explode!

[Sydney Bristow]

Movie Tickets:

 

Thor - 36,1%

DH2 - 19%

MOTOE - 16,3%

BM - 6,2%

JL - 3,4%

 

Pulse:

 

1- Thor

2- DH2

3- MOTOE

4- JL

5- BM

[Subzero]

1 minute ago, Sydney Bristow said:

Movie Tickets:

 

Thor - 36,1%

DH2 - 19%

MOTOE - 16,3%

BM - 6,2%

JL - 3,4%

 

Pulse:

 

1- Thor

2- DH2

3- MOTOE

4- JL

5- BM

 

JL was averaging 20-25 tickets / 5 minutes yesterday, compare to today it went up 3x 60-65/5 minutes ....on Pulse

[raegr]

6 minutes ago, Sydney Bristow said:

Movie Tickets:

 

Thor - 36,1%

DH2 - 19%

MOTOE - 16,3%

BM - 6,2%

JL - 3,4%

 

Pulse:

 

1- Thor

2- DH2

3- MOTOE

4- JL

5- BM

4TH ALREADY!

[Rumpot]

For an upcoming MT comparison vs Thor - on Tuesday of release Thor was at 29.4% mid day but that was after a 76.8M weekend.  JL opening week coming off a weekend almost exactly twice that big so of course adjust %s accordingly.  

[YM!]

It seems The Star’s Thursday previews have been cancelled at my theater. LMAO.

[Rumpot]

9 minutes ago, YourMother said:

It seems The Star’s Thursday previews have been cancelled at my theater. LMAO.

Smart, no chance to make any significant money on Thursday 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Rumpot said:

Smart, no chance to make any significant money on Thursday 

I never get why people say this for some movies. The studios and theaters have basically nothing to lose if it's taking over a movie that's been selling little to nothing.

[YM!]

33 minutes ago, YourMother said:

It seems The Star’s Thursday previews have been cancelled at my theater. LMAO.

Now this is getting shifty. Upon further research I checked two other theaters and the previews are still listed for Thursday night but it says sold out for North Shore.

 

So either I have three scenarios:

A (the likely scenario): they didn’t think it’d make too much money and canceled it

B (also likely): theaters are slowly going to pull out of Thursday previews

C: The Star has actual sellouts here but I don’t think that’s likely. To confirm it’s actual I’d have to call the theater like I did with IT but since I tracked it, The Star stalled at about 15.

Edited November 13, 2017 by YourMother

[Rumpot]

12 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I never get why people say this for some movies. The studios and theaters have basically nothing to lose if it's taking over a movie that's been selling little to nothing.

I dunno, because this would sell little to nothing as well.  If it would.be replacing another movie that would make sub 100k from 7pm on that day then sure for the theater I suppose.  For the studio I'd think it's a little embarrassing to report such a low preview.  They may also not want any WOM starting with such a small group - sending more people in blind off the bat increases chances of a % liking it.

[Rumpot]

11 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Now this is getting shifty. Upon further research I checked two other theaters and the previews are still listed for Thursday night but it says sold out for North Shore.

 

So either I have three scenarios:

A (the likely scenario): they didn’t think it’d make too much money and canceled it

B (also likely): theaters are slowly going to pull out of Thursday previews

C: The Star has actual sellouts here but I don’t think that’s likely. To confirm it’s actual I’d have to call the theater like I did with IT but since I tracked it, The Star stalled at about 15.

C isn't impossible as I could see this selling out to church groups which I expect to be the majority of sales anyway.  For now it's listed for showings on Thursday - http://www.thestarmovie-tickets.com

[Slytherus]

I’m fairly new here so what do MT and Pulse percentages mean, and what do they correlate to?

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, Slytherus said:

I’m fairly new here so what do MT and Pulse percentages mean, and what do they correlate to?

Percent of tickets sold for a film in the past hour for the amount of tickets sold today. 

[Sydney Bristow]

1 minute ago, Slytherus said:

I’m fairly new here so what do MT and Pulse percentages mean, and what do they correlate to?

I am going to answer, but if I am wrong, everyone feel free to correct me.

MovieTickets and Fandango are two sites where you can buy tickets in the US.

MovieTickets (https://www.movietickets.com/) has something called “trending movies”, where they list the five movies that have sold more on the site, and their percentage of sales on the last 24hrs.

Fandango (https://www.fandango.com/dataviz/index.html#) has something called Pulse, where they show every sale made on Fandango, and also list the five movies that have sold more on the site on the last half hour or so - so the position of the five can change a lot.