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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted

Fandango Meter (10am)

 

10 minute avg

 

JL: 45.6

Wonder: 10

Star: 1

 

Comparisons for the day:  [Comps for Wonder are HARD]

 

WW:  46 (10am), 125 (5pm)

SM:HC: 49 (9am), 110 (12pm), 138 (1pm) 174 (3:50pm), 216 (5:20pm)

IT:  41 (9am) 102 (12:20pm) 140 (1pm) 186 (4:50pm)

Thor 3:  103 (12:15) 112 (1:15pm), 145 (4pm) 175 (4:50)

 

 

Nutty: 3.5 (7:30pm)

My Little Pony: 4 (11:10am), 7 (4:30), 7.33 (7:10pm) 7.2 (7:30)

Ninjango: 7 (5:10), 11 (7:30pm)

Emoji: 17 (10:10am) 18 (4pm) 23.3 (7pm)

 

 

MOTE:  10 (9:35am),  16.8 (2:15), 25 (5:15) 33 (7pm)

Castle:  3 (7:30pm)

Wimpy 5 avg (9pm - I think)

 

 

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

Fandango Meter (10am)

 

10 minute avg

 

JL: 45.6

Wonder: 10

Star: 1

 

Comparisons for the day:  [Comps for Wonder are HARD]

 

WW:  46 (10am), 125 (5pm)

SM:HC: 49 (9am), 110 (12pm), 138 (1pm) 174 (3:50pm), 216 (5:20pm)

IT:  41 (9am) 102 (12:20pm) 140 (1pm) 186 (4:50pm)

Thor 3:  103 (12:15) 112 (1:15pm), 145 (4pm) 175 (4:50)

 

 

Nutty: 3.5 (7:30pm)

My Little Pony: 4 (11:10am), 7 (4:30), 7.33 (7:10pm) 7.2 (7:30)

Ninjango: 7 (5:10), 11 (7:30pm)

Emoji: 17 (10:10am) 18 (4pm) 23.3 (7pm)

 

 

MOTE:  10 (9:35am),  16.8 (2:15), 25 (5:15) 33 (7pm)

Castle:  3 (7:30pm)

Wimpy 5 avg (9pm - I think)

 

 

I'm toying around with the possibility of The Star going under 5M. I downgraded my Derby prediction to 5M but will avoid changing it any further until previews begin. With the way presales on Pulse and at my theater are, it's veeeeeeeeery tempting.

I also bumped Wonder up to 30M for now. I'm really feeling a breakout there.

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Ms Lady Hawk Box Office Gold

Ms Lady Hawk

Posted
Posted

JL is doing great in at least one theater in NY. I have not checked out any others.

 

AMC Roosevelt Field 8- 11/16

 

Looks like they have reserved two theaters for it tonight. 

 

Theater 1- Capacity 139 including handicap spaces-

 

6:00 PM- 81/139

9:00 P’- 63/139

 

Theater 2 - Digital- capacity of 160 including handicap

 

6:45PM - 123/160

9:45PM- 139/160

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Okay, so 23 hours later, here's where we are for all 3 movies...

1st local

JL 3d 25/125, 2/125 for 27/250 (up 1)

JL 2d 58/185, 91/175, 59/185, 42/175 for 250/720 (up 47)

JL total 277/970 (up 48 - not loving this, but we'll see)

Wonder 30/110, 0/110 for 30/220 (up 3)

The Star 0/60, 0/60 for 0/120 (no change - I expect this to not sell til Saturday and kids are not in school)

 

2nd local

JL 3d 64/90, 37/90 for 101/180 (up 6)

JL 2d 132/170 (few good seats left - only front row and sides of row 2), 115/170 for 247/340 (up 10)

JL/WW Special 23/125 (up 1)

JL Total 371/645 (up 17) - it needs to add some 2d showings, which I expected by now, but we'll see tomorrow...

Wonder 37/110, 4/110 for 41/220 (up 11)

The Star 0/50, 0/50, 0/50 for 0/150 (no surprise, since its previews are not where it's making any money except for JL overflow:)...

Same time to Thor comparison...

1st local 3d 30/125, 4/125 for 34/250 (up 7)

1st local 2d 78/185, 113/175, 96/185, 56/175 for 343/720 (up 93 - definitely helped by other local still not adding screens)

JL Total 377/970 (up 100)

 

2nd local 3d 66/90, 52/90 for 118/180 (up 17)

2nd local 2d 143/170 (the dreg seats are now being bought), 129/170 for 272/340 (up 27)

2nd local special 30/125 (up 7)

JL Total 420/645 (up 51)

 

Total JL 797/1615  - Thor at same time was 668/1250...so now there's a straight apples-to-apples...

 

Still shocked 2nd local is running with 4 shows when it's got almost nothing left...this will be a very late add on show if they do it tonight...later than Thor (and they are obs losing tickets to the other local b/c that one has never sold a super this well)...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted

Forecasts for this weekend's releases:

 

JL:

 

Nov 17: 105M (51.2M weekdays, 156.2M Total)

Nov 24: 56M (9.8M weekdays, 222M Total)

Dec 1: 15.6M (4.4M weekdays, 242M Total)

Dec 8: 7.3M (2.5M weekdays, 251.8M Total)

Dec 15: 3.2M (1.9M weekdays, 256.9M Total)

Dec 22: 1.2M (1.5M weekdays, 259.6M Total)

Dec 29: 700k (600k weekdays, 260.9M Total)

Final Total: 263M (2.5x)

 

Wonder:

 

Nov 17: 30M (19.8M weekdays, 49.8M Total)

Nov 24: 28.6M (6.8M weekdays, 85.2M Total)

Dec 1: 17.8M (5.9M weekdays, 108.9M Total)

Dec 8: 12.5M (4M weekdays, 125.4M Total)

Dec 15: 8.7M (6.3M weekdays, 140.4M Total)

Dec 22: 4.3M (5.9M weekdays, 150.6M Total)

Dec 29: 3.6M (2.9M weekdays, 157.1M Total)

Jan 6: 3M (900k weekdays, 161M Total)

Jan 13: 1.7M (1M weekdays, 163.7M Total)

Jan 20: 800k (400k weekdays, 164.9M Total)

Final Total: 167M (5.57x)

 

The Star:

 

Nov 17: 5M (3M weekdays, 8M Total)

Nov 24: 2.9M (500k weekdays, 11.4M Total)

Dec 1: 1.3M (400k weekdays, 13.1M Total)

Dec 8: 600k (100k weekdays, 13.8M Total)

Final Total: 16M (3.2x)

 

4bUV7Ls.gif

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted
Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Forecasts for this weekend's releases:

 

JL:

 

Nov 17: 105M (51.2M weekdays, 156.2M Total)

Nov 24: 56M (9.8M weekdays, 222M Total)

Dec 1: 15.6M (4.4M weekdays, 242M Total)

Dec 8: 7.3M (2.5M weekdays, 251.8M Total)

Dec 15: 3.2M (1.9M weekdays, 256.9M Total)

Dec 22: 1.2M (1.5M weekdays, 259.6M Total)

Dec 29: 700k (600k weekdays, 260.9M Total)

Final Total: 263M (2.5x)

 

Wonder:

 

Nov 17: 30M (19.8M weekdays, 49.8M Total)

Nov 24: 28.6M (6.8M weekdays, 85.2M Total)

Dec 1: 17.8M (5.9M weekdays, 108.9M Total)

Dec 8: 12.5M (4M weekdays, 125.4M Total)

Dec 15: 8.7M (6.3M weekdays, 140.4M Total)

Dec 22: 4.3M (5.9M weekdays, 150.6M Total)

Dec 29: 3.6M (2.9M weekdays, 157.1M Total)

Jan 6: 3M (900k weekdays, 161M Total)

Jan 13: 1.7M (1M weekdays, 163.7M Total)

Jan 20: 800k (400k weekdays, 164.9M Total)

Final Total: 167M (5.57x)

 

The Star:

 

Nov 17: 5M (3M weekdays, 8M Total)

Nov 24: 2.9M (500k weekdays, 11.4M Total)

Dec 1: 1.3M (400k weekdays, 13.1M Total)

Dec 8: 600k (100k weekdays, 13.8M Total)

Final Total: 16M (3.2x)

 

4bUV7Ls.gif

All of BOT will bow to WrathOfCasualn if that Wonder prediction happens.

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Forecasts for this weekend's releases:

 

JL:

 

Nov 17: 105M (51.2M weekdays, 156.2M Total)

Nov 24: 56M (9.8M weekdays, 222M Total)

Dec 1: 15.6M (4.4M weekdays, 242M Total)

Dec 8: 7.3M (2.5M weekdays, 251.8M Total)

Dec 15: 3.2M (1.9M weekdays, 256.9M Total)

Dec 22: 1.2M (1.5M weekdays, 259.6M Total)

Dec 29: 700k (600k weekdays, 260.9M Total)

Final Total: 263M (2.5x)

 

Wonder:

 

Nov 17: 30M (19.8M weekdays, 49.8M Total)

Nov 24: 28.6M (6.8M weekdays, 85.2M Total)

Dec 1: 17.8M (5.9M weekdays, 108.9M Total)

Dec 8: 12.5M (4M weekdays, 125.4M Total)

Dec 15: 8.7M (6.3M weekdays, 140.4M Total)

Dec 22: 4.3M (5.9M weekdays, 150.6M Total)

Dec 29: 3.6M (2.9M weekdays, 157.1M Total)

Jan 6: 3M (900k weekdays, 161M Total)

Jan 13: 1.7M (1M weekdays, 163.7M Total)

Jan 20: 800k (400k weekdays, 164.9M Total)

Final Total: 167M (5.57x)

 

The Star:

 

Nov 17: 5M (3M weekdays, 8M Total)

Nov 24: 2.9M (500k weekdays, 11.4M Total)

Dec 1: 1.3M (400k weekdays, 13.1M Total)

Dec 8: 600k (100k weekdays, 13.8M Total)

Final Total: 16M (3.2x)

 

4bUV7Ls.gif

These predictions are madness. 

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

Posted
Posted (edited)

His Wonder predict seems the most likely imo. Can’t see JL under $300M or Star under $30M. I am curious to see his Coco prediction.

Edited by YourMother
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MrPink Global Phenomenon

MrPink

Posted
Posted
Just now, filmlover said:

Look at it this way: if he fails, it's just another addition to the "WTF Han" category at this year's BOT awards.

 

Nothing is beating the HA HA HA OH WOW moment, unless something swoops in to 'Moonlight' the 'La La Land' frontrunner.

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