The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Poseidon]

I'm still careful. I don't think we have a movie that's a good comparison for JW in terms of presales. 
For me it feels wrong, to put it in a category like Marvel or SW or even Incredibles. I wouldn't see it as a fan-driven franchise, but like a franchise with big general appeal.

 

We'll see how things turn out, but yeah, the big gap surely didn't help.

 

 

I've always said it, there's no room for a better story, then the one with the park. 

[Yandereprime101189]

While we can't rule anything out, I'm kinda hoping this surprises and does well so that I can see you guys once again saying you can never trust tracking.

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

My big question concerning Walk-Ups is: What Will MoviePass Users Do?

 

MoviePass just hit 3M users.  If you use the average ticket price of $8.97 (I'm gonna around to $9), there's $27M of Walk-Up of untrackable profits for the weekend.  Will every one of them go see JWFK?  Will they all go opening night?  Will they wait on WOM?  I Don't Know.

 

But if it's tracking to 100M to 120M, that could be enough to push it to at least 130M+

And will MoviePass be charging extra for both JW and I2 this weekend (now with the news of surge pricing)...I doubt most folks will kick in $2-$6 more to see either movie when every other movie choice is free...

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

My big question concerning Walk-Ups is: What Will MoviePass Users Do?

 

MoviePass just hit 3M users.  If you use the average ticket price of $8.97 (I'm gonna around to $9), there's $27M of Walk-Up of untrackable profits for the weekend.  Will every one of them go see JWFK?  Will they all go opening night?  Will they wait on WOM?  I Don't Know.

 

But if it's tracking to 100M to 120M, that could be enough to push it to at least 130M+

I mean MP has been around that subscription base since the summer movie season started I believe, so it's not like that hasn't already been a factor in all of the releases this summer. 

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

My big question concerning Walk-Ups is: What Will MoviePass Users Do?

 

MoviePass just hit 3M users.  If you use the average ticket price of $8.97 (I'm gonna around to $9), there's $27M of Walk-Up of untrackable profits for the weekend.  Will every one of them go see JWFK?  Will they all go opening night?  Will they wait on WOM?  I Don't Know.

 

But if it's tracking to 100M to 120M, that could be enough to push it to at least 130M+

Try and watch Incredibles 2 because we couldn’t get seats last weekend 

[Porthos]

29 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

You know? I feel the mass underestimation for JW2 comes exactly from those who despise and always assumes that this and the next one (JW3) will never do Marvel-business again. They always assume that JW2 must do bad numbers in order for the third one to do worse. Am i feeling that the same limited people are nothing but MCU-stans and thinks other franchises from different genres have no chance against them? Hell, two of the new Star Wars-trilogy did blockbuster-numbers, yet i don’t see anyone else complaining about their success.

 

===

 

NOTE:  My slightly self-mocking user title notwithstanding, I felt this objection should be made. 

 

======

 

Mind, I have tremendous sympathy for folks getting tired of the JK:FK is doooooooooooomed narrative.  I know exactly what it is like to read post after post of such things in the run up to a film's release.  One of the reasons I've been extra careful in how I talk about FK.

[WrathOfHan]

Theater update:

 

7:00: 86/124 -1

7:00: 37/78 +8

7:15 3D: 16/60 +15

7:30 3D: 35/78 +1

8:00: 47/78 +6

9:00 3D: 10/69 +1

9:30: 19/67 +7

10:00: 2/124 +2

10:00: 0/78

10:15 3D: 5/60

Total: 257/816 (Up 39) (191 2D/66 3D)

 

Comps (all final sales):

 

24% of The Last Jedi (52.8M) (16 shows)

24% of Infinity War (61.7M) (15 shows)

52% of Black Panther (105M) (9 shows)

61% of Deadpool 2 (76.6M) (8 shows)

64% of Solo (54M) (9 shows)

76% of Thor: Ragnarok (93.3M) (6 shows)

80% of Justice League (75M) (6 shows)

80% of Incredibles 2 (146.1M) (4 shows)

 

Sales are starting to pick up a bit. The lack of sales later in the night is a little concerning, but maybe we should lay off on @That One Guy 🤔

[Brainbug]

I refuse to have a meltdown before we have actual numbers. I still believe the most important indicator with FK (in that how high or low it could go) is the true Friday number and not the Thursday previews.

 

Till then:

 

[ZeeSoh]

38 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

You know? I feel the mass underestimation for JW2 comes exactly from those who despise and always assumes that this and the next one (JW3) will never do Marvel-business again. They always assume that JW2 must do bad numbers in order for the third one to do worse. Am i feeling that the same limited people are nothing but MCU-stans and thinks other franchises from different genres have no chance against them? Hell, two of the new Star Wars-trilogy did blockbuster-numbers, yet i don’t see anyone else complaining about their success.

Yes, yes the “mass underestimation” is because of those wretched MCU stans and not because of its relative underperformance in tracking, Movietickets, Fandango, theatre and seat counts. Guess the trades and BO sites must also be MCU stand coz they’ve been downgrading the numbers for this movie for days now. 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Disney might be getting a bit too greedy when it comes to MCU-films. Making it unfair for other blockbusters coming before or after them.

[MovieMan89]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

===

 

NOTE:  My slightly self-mocking user title notwithstanding, I felt this objection should be made. 

 

======

 

Mind, I have tremendous sympathy for folks getting tired of the JK:FK is doooooooooooomed narrative.  I know exactly what it is like to read post after post of such things in the run up to a film's release.  One of the reasons I've been extra careful in how I talk about FK.

Yeah, but I mean people weren't wrong whatsoever about you know what being doomed. None of us even knew how doomed it was. Would you rather everyone have acted like it was going to be fine, and then have the reality of what happened? 

[ZeeSoh]

6 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Disney might be getting a bit too greedy when it comes to MCU-films. Making it unfair for other blockbusters coming before or after them.

Wtf does this even mean? Should Marvel stop making movies because they’re making too much money? Marvel makes 3 movies a year and if even that is too much for the hundreds of other movies then its not Marvel’s problem. Its not their problem that they make movies that people want to see. 

 

And if other movies cant make much money before or after an MCU movie then the other studios should not release the movies close to them. 

[Porthos]

22 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yeah, but I mean people weren't wrong whatsoever about you know what being doomed. None of us even knew how doomed it was. Would you rather everyone have acted like it was going to be fine, and then have the reality of what happened? 

I just think a balance can be struck, iz all.  I know when I was in TOG's shoes, I was disappointed to see bad tracking info for Solo, but I was able to take it in stride more or less.  It was the ones that looked liked they were laughing at the whole situation which got on my wick.

 

There's also a difference between the "This is fine" dog and a "This is concerning" take and the "Flee for your lives" Denethor take.  

 

Guess I am saying there's more than two options to take here.

 

Edited June 21, 2018 by Porthos

[abra]

[Brainbug]

10 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Disney might be getting a bit too greedy when it comes to MCU-films. Making it unfair for other blockbusters coming before or after them.

 

This makes no sense, sorry. The studios decide where and when they release a film and they have always the choice to open their own big movie a few weeks after/before the Disney film. Especially since the BO has shown in the last few years that blockbusters can open at any time of the year now.

[Brainbug]

I will say though that i may be insufferable if FK either a) implodes like Solo which wont happen or b) shows tracking the middle finger and comfortably opens above the 135M number, which will, SHOULD and MUST happen and in that case

Edited June 21, 2018 by Brainbug

[Thrylos 7]

42 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

I know why. Because some joykillers here hated this one (including you) just so they can wishfully think it’ll fail to do huge numbers. And before you or someone else says ”What does our opinions have to do with JW2 doing worse than expected?” or something like this. Because one person assumes always the worst for the franchise. And i know your mindset is for that wish to happen, like ”If i hate it, everyone else will hate it as well”. Christ, do you guys really want this franchise to be in the shadow of the MCU because of assumptions for it to underperform and avoid the movie at all cost? No wonder why’ll this only enforces people to hate the movie.

Eeeeh, yes I hated it, it’s a terrible movie and I want it to do bad, I don’t see what’s the problem. I loved the first one and was rooting for it and never, not once did I complain that it beat AOU.

 

The thing is these underpredictions aren’t a result of hate, they are a result of the horrible presales, if presales were decent not even people that hate it would “underpredict” it.

[Chewy]

The TRACKING thread is a disaster, we're not ready for this coming weekend thread

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

28 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Theater update:

 

7:00: 86/124 -1

7:00: 37/78 +8

7:15 3D: 16/60 +15

7:30 3D: 35/78 +1

8:00: 47/78 +6

9:00 3D: 10/69 +1

9:30: 19/67 +7

10:00: 2/124 +2

10:00: 0/78

10:15 3D: 5/60

Total: 257/816 (Up 39) (191 2D/66 3D)

 

Comps (all final sales):

 

24% of The Last Jedi (52.8M) (16 shows)

24% of Infinity War (61.7M) (15 shows)

52% of Black Panther (105M) (9 shows)

61% of Deadpool 2 (76.6M) (8 shows)

64% of Solo (54M) (9 shows)

76% of Thor: Ragnarok (93.3M) (6 shows)

80% of Justice League (75M) (6 shows)

80% of Incredibles 2 (146.1M) (4 shows)

 

Sales are starting to pick up a bit. The lack of sales later in the night is a little concerning, but maybe we should lay off on @That One Guy 🤔

Wouldn’t it be better to comp to the preview number to tonight’s sales? The difference in internal multiplier during the weekend will come from walkups, but not necessarily tonight

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

Wouldn’t it be better to comp to the preview number to tonight’s sales? The difference in internal multiplier during the weekend will come from walkups, but not necessarily tonight

I'll add them in the next update