The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[HouseOfTheSun]

3 minutes ago, dakus said:

Endgame would take up such a significant portion of the cap, that the portion of tickets left in that cap for other movies would be a lot lower. So the absolute number of tickets sold would be higher then the number displayed on Pulse when compared to other comps in normal times.

 

At least, that was my understanding of the topic

I thought the cap was for individual movies. 

[HouseOfTheSun]

Delete 

Edited May 1, 2019 by HouseOfTheSun

[Cooper Legion]

On 4/29/2019 at 8:21 PM, Thanos Legion said:

17:00 Pacific 4/29/19 (End of Mon)  

1	93.3%	Avengers: Endgame
2	1.3%	Captain Marvel
3	1%	The Curse of La Llorona
4	0.8%	Breakthrough
5	0.8%	Kingdom Men Rising

Looks like CM’s lead over other holdovers will grow. Endgame is significantly up*, presumably thanks to spillover. I assume this happened for other mega-openers on Monday. Also, goodbye Shazam, hello... “Kingdom Men Rising?” Never heard of that before.

 

* 90 vs 93.3 might seem small, but it’s the difference between being 9x the other movies and 14x

17:00 Pacific 4/30/19 (End of Discount Tues)  

1	87.4%	Avengers: Endgame
2	2.2%	Captain Marvel
3	1.9%	Breakthrough
4	1.6%	The Curse of La Llorona
5	1.1%	Shazam!   

 

Shazam is back, seem like Breakthrough might have had a good Tues?      

 

Endgame’s share falls a lot (~14x rest->7x). As expected, since it sees minimal admits impact with demand so high whereas other movies are selling almost double tickets today. 

[TwoMisfits]

So, I don't track this 16 screen theater, but their set for the weekend in my area is so amusing...they have literally booked a single 9am or 10am showing for La Llorona (who goes to horror at 10am?:), Breakthrough, Kalank, Penguins, Shazam, AND Dumbo - SIX movies only get a single showing, so they can fit in the new movies while keeping Endgame on practically every screen.

 

They booked 4 new movies (the 3 wide releases and El Chicano) all on single screens, kept Captain Marvel on 1 screen, dropped Little to an almost full screen (it doesn't have a 10am), and gave Endgame the other equivalent 9 screens (with Endgame giving up most 10ams, but having 10 screens the rest of the day)...I find this set hilarious...but probably one that's gonna make the theater the most money this weekend (they don't do cheap 1st showings, so they probably don't draw for them like other places, so might as well waste them fulfilling contracts and/or making other studios at least not as miserable:).  

[Perfundle]

44 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

I thought the cap was for individual movies. 

That's not what the cap is. Pulse tracks all the movie sales in each 15-minute period, but stops tracking until the next 15 minutes if it reaches 4,000 tickets. So if 8,000 tickets were sold in 15 minutes, the tracker is underestimating every movie's ticket sales by half during that period, assuming tickets were being sold in equal proportion.

 

Edit: As @Thanos Legion pointed out, this should say 4,000 per hour instead of per 15 minutes.

Edited May 1, 2019 by Perfundle

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

I thought the cap was for individual movies. 

No that cap is when it stops counting all movies within a 15 minute period, IIRC.

 

We saw that cap getting hit before at other mega releases like SW and other Marvel films, FWIW. Whenever we would see the Pulse tracker only show 2 or 3 minutes worth of movies, for instance.

 

What I didn't realize was it being hard-set at 15 minute intervals.  I just presumed that the sets of ticket sales that Pulse showed would be updated more often whenever the cap was hit.  Thinking about it now, I have no idea why I would have thought that.

 

Anyway, the problem is that even if it's a representative sample (and given we're dealing with a black box, that can't be presumed for sure), it's gonna hurt if we think Pikachu, for instance, was selling 10 sets of tickets per hour when it was really 20 or 30 sets of tickets per hour.  That adds up on the 24 hour counter each time a cap is hit, especially if it's early in the 15 minute window.

Edited May 1, 2019 by Porthos

[HouseOfTheSun]

2 minutes ago, Perfundle said:

That's not what the cap is. Pulse tracks all the movie sales in each 15-minute period, but stops tracking until the next 15 minutes if it reaches 4,000 tickets. So if 8,000 tickets were sold in 15 minutes, the tracker is underestimating every movie's ticket sales by half during that period, assuming tickets were being sold in equal proportion.

 

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

No that cap is when it stops counting all movies within a 15 minute period, IIRC.

 

We saw that cap getting hit before at other mega releases like SW and other Marvel films, FWIW. Whenever we would see the Pulse tracker only show 2 or 3 minutes worth of movies, for instance.

 

What I didn't realize was it being hard-set at 15 minute intervals.  I just presumed that the sets of ticket sales that Pulse showed would be updated more often whenever the cap was hit.  Thinking about it now, I have no idea why I would have thought that.

 

Anyway, the problem is that even if it's a representative sample (and given we're dealing with a black box, that can't be presumed for sure), it's gonna hurt if we think Pikachu, for instance, was selling 10 sets of tickets per hour when it was really 20 or 30 sets of tickets per hour.  That adds up on the 24 hour counter each time a cap is hit, especially if it's early in the 15 minute window.

Ahh so we really have no real estimate then 

[Nova]

It’s why I’m taking Aladdin’s Fandango sales with a grain of salt. Same with Wick’s. My theater is anecdotal of course but they’re doing way better at my theater in terms of tickets sold versus what’s represented on the counter. 

[Cooper Legion]

5 minutes ago, Perfundle said:

That's not what the cap is. Pulse tracks all the movie sales in each 15-minute period, but stops tracking until the next 15 minutes if it reaches 4,000 tickets. So if 8,000 tickets were sold in 15 minutes, the tracker is underestimating every movie's ticket sales by half during that period, assuming tickets were being sold in equal proportion.

It’s 4000/hr, 1000/15 min period.     

 

It probably makes sense to record the Fandango % at least as much as the Fandango # sets now.

[Minnale101]

6 minutes ago, Nova said:

It’s why I’m taking Aladdin’s Fandango sales with a grain of salt. Same with Wick’s. My theater is anecdotal of course but they’re doing way better at my theater in terms of tickets sold versus what’s represented on the counter. 

Has you’re thearter seem up uptick with detective pikachu today like others ?

[Nova]

@Porthos bless the Notes app for the iPhone. I’ve got Fallen Kingdom numbers on it for Thursday night of release and 4 days out. Will do comps in a bit to see if they compare with yours. 

[MrPink]

At the DC area I can see some theaters with about 40 seats sold or so, which probably qualifies about 50% occupancy. The 4pm shows are doing pretty bad though, about 10-15 seats at the nearest theaters to me. 

[TwoMisfits]

On 4/23/2019 at 6:53 PM, TwoMisfits said:

2nd local (Regal) posted...LOTS of splits (6 movies)...

 

NEW

Endgame (7 - 30 showings)

 

RETURNING

Curse of LL (1 - 6 showings)

Breakthrough (1 - 5 showings) - surprised, but this is one of the few theaters around showing this movie

Penguins/Dumbo (1 - 3 showings each) - seeing Penguins drop to a half screen again, but Dumbo staying, I gotta think this was a deal for booking Penguins last weekend - you can slice it, as long as you keep Dumbo, too:)...

Little/Pet Semetary (1 - Little only gets 1 showing while PS gets 4)

Shazam/Us (1 - Shazam gets 4 showings and Us just gets 1)

Captain Marvel (1 - 6 showings)

 

GONE

After, Hellboy, Missing Link, The Best of Enemies, HTTYD 3

2nd local - Regal - is up, and last week's splits are done.  Rough week for holdovers here...here's the set...

 

NEW

Long Shot (1 - 5 showings) (below average screen)

The Intruder (1 - 5 showings) (average screen - the Atom deal must have helped this get the bigger screen:)

UglyDolls (1 - 6 showings) (below average screen)

 

At least here, the newbies weren't stuck on the smallest screen size, but it's still not good for them

 

RETURNING

Endgame (5 - 21 showings) - it's down 2 equivalent screens, although 1 of those screens was really early and really late showings it no longer has - but it did also lose 1 full screen

Breakthough (1 - 5 showings) - surprised it keeps a full one, BUT with the other theater never booking this movie, this might have been a good call for area demand

Shazam (1 - 5 showings) - it's also a winner this week, getting back a full screen

Captain Marvel (1 - 5 showings) - no surprise after last weekend

LL - (.75 - 3 showings) / Little (.25 - 1 showing) - NO IDEA why Little gets the 10PM and not 10AM, but this could be a matter of not caring:)...

 

So, supers win as the returns...and pretty much nothing else does...

 

GONE

Penguins, Dumbo, Pet Semetary, Us

[Mulder]

7 minutes ago, MrPink said:

At the DC area I can see some theaters with about 40 seats sold or so, which probably qualifies about 50% occupancy. The 4pm shows are doing pretty bad though, about 10-15 seats at the nearest theaters to me. 

Yeah I think 4 PM is just way too early on school days for previews. I don't know why WB's doing them.

[JB33]

Putting this here because I don't know where else to talk about it:

 

The November schedule is seriously a mess. It'll probably sort itself as we go along, as the August schedule has, but I'd like to know what's going to move, what's going to be delayed, what's maybe not even coming out on that date period etc.

 

For instance, WB has three wide releases in a row scheduled: Motherless Brooklyn (November 1), Doctor Sleep (November 8), and The Good Liar (November 15). Meanwhile, Paramount has 3 wide releases in 4 weeks: Terminator: Dark Fate (November 1), Sonic the Hedgehog (November 8 ) and Rhythm Section (November 22).

[Nova]

Okay so I have Fallen Kingdom numbers from Saturday before release (16th of June), Tuesday (19th of June) and Thursday of release. 

 

June 16th this is what Fallen Kingdom looked at my theater: 

 

7PM 106/142 

10:30PM 30/142 

Total: 136 

 

3D 

7PM 68/142 

10PM 12/142

total:80 

 

Total between 3D and 2D is 216 

*Im gonna hold off on posting 19th and Thursday of release right now as they’re pretty pointless imo I will post them on their respective days though 

 

Heres how Detective Pikachu is looking: 

2D

4PM () 22/142 

9:30PM  40/142 

Total 2D: 62 

 

3D 

6:45PM  38/142

Total 3D: 38 

 

Total Tickets: 100 

 

So it’s roughly at 46.5% of Fallen Kingdom. I want to add that this comp will obviously be better when this Saturday hits to see exactly how it stacks up. I also want to add that I’m not sure Fallen Kingdom is a good comp but I’m using it since @Porthos has used it as a data point and also the Shazam! and Dumbo comps are useless at my theater as Pikachu is running like 170% ahead of Shazam! And 240% ahead of Dumbo. I’ll still use them but like I don’t think theyre accurate comps tbh 

 

Also @Minnale101 to answer your question. Yes. Pikachu sold 11 tickets today for Thursday night. Didn’t check for the rest of the weekend and probably won’t do that tbh unless I see an uptick in sales either A) on Fandango or B). For Thursday night 

[Minnale101]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

Okay so I have Fallen Kingdom numbers from Saturday before release (16th of June), Tuesday (19th of June) and Thursday of release. 

 

June 16th this is what Fallen Kingdom looked at my theater: 

 

7PM 106/142 

10:30PM 30/142 

Total: 136 

 

3D 

7PM 68/142 

10PM 12/142

total:80 

 

Total between 3D and 2D is 216 

*Im gonna hold off on posting 19th and Thursday of release right now as they’re pretty pointless imo I will post them on their respective days though 

 

Heres how Detective Pikachu is looking: 

2D

4PM () 22/142 

9:30PM  40/142 

Total 2D: 62 

 

3D 

6:45PM  38/142

Total 3D: 38 

 

Total Tickets: 100 

 

So it’s roughly at 46.5% of Fallen Kingdom. I want to add that this comp will obviously be better when this Saturday hits to see exactly how it stacks up. I also want to add that I’m not sure Fallen Kingdom is a good comp but I’m using it since @Porthos has used it as a data point and also the Shazam! and Dumbo comps are useless at my theater as Pikachu is running like 170% ahead of Shazam! And 240% ahead of Dumbo. I’ll still use them but like I don’t think theyre accurate comps tbh 

 

Also @Minnale101 to answer your question. Yes. Pikachu sold 11 tickets today for Thursday night. Didn’t check for the rest of the weekend and probably won’t do that tbh unless I see an uptick in sales either A) on Fandango or B). For Thursday night 

Just like mulder threarter 

 

the movie today did 10% of what it did the last 20 days. 

 

I hope if the reviews are positives. The movies will picks up more on Thursday 

[Nova]

1 minute ago, JB33 said:

Putting this here because I don't know where else to talk about it:

 

The November schedule is seriously a mess. It'll probably sort itself as we go along, as the August schedule has, but I'd like to know what's going to move, what's going to be delayed, what's maybe not even coming out on that date period etc.

 

For instance, WB has three wide releases in a row scheduled: Motherless Brooklyn (November 1), Doctor Sleep (November 8), and The Good Liar (November 15). Meanwhile, Paramount has 3 wide releases in 4 weeks: Terminator: Dark Fate (November 1), Sonic the Hedgehog (November 8 ) and Rhythm Section (November 22).

Take Sonic off the schedule. No one needs to see that abomination. And I don’t know what WB is gonna do but that just looks like self sabotage to me but hey judging by their release schedule so far this year, I guess they thought 2019 was the year of sabotage 

[Perfundle]

58 minutes ago, Nova said:

It’s why I’m taking Aladdin’s Fandango sales with a grain of salt. Same with Wick’s. My theater is anecdotal of course but they’re doing way better at my theater in terms of tickets sold versus what’s represented on the counter. 

Given that Aladdin's first-day presales did around 1.4 times Detective Pikachu's according to Porthos' and my theaters' numbers, while the tracker says it did around 0.7, you could argue that Monday was underestimated by half. On the other hand, Detective Pikachu suddenly jumping to 670 seems too high. At this point we need a tracker to track the tracker, to tell us during which minute sales stop in each block of time. Quis scrutet ipsos scrutator?

Edited May 1, 2019 by Perfundle

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

Take Sonic off the schedule. No one needs to see that abomination. And I don’t know what WB is gonna do but that just looks like self sabotage to me but hey judging by their release schedule so far this year, I guess they thought 2019 was the year of sabotage 

Meanwhile they have only 2 films scheduled during the back half of summer (July/August): The Kitchen and Blinded by the Light.