The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Cappoedameron]

54 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

anything above 6M previews is huge for pika pika

 

Pretty close to 6m. Reported 5.7

[Ars]

29 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

 

The system continues to roll

That's a bit lower than Shazam if I remember correctly.

[Boxofficerules]

1 hour ago, Minnale101 said:

Movie tickets 9am 

 

50.7% Endgame 

 

detective pikachu 30.3%

 

 

The Hustle is now at 99%, Detective Pikachu is now at 0.5% and Endgame is now at 0.5%

[efialtes76]

10 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

The Hustle is now at 99%, Detective Pikachu is now at 0.5% and Endgame is now at 0.5%

That's a joke? 

Wow... 

[LexJoker]

4 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

That's a joke? 

Wow... 

Yes

[efialtes76]

8 minutes ago, LexJoker said:

Yes

I know it. 

Sarcasm... 

Edited May 10, 2019 by efialtes76

[HouseOfTheSun]

If Pikachu wanted to be above endgame this weekend it’d ha e to be outselling it already for opening day. 

[cdsacken]

2 hours ago, Minnale101 said:

Movie tickets 9am 

 

50.7% Endgame 

 

detective pikachu 30.3%

 

 

That is not good.

[Minnale101]

Got notification that Godzilla tickets up on amc 

[Minnale101]

23 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

That is not good.

Just posting the numbers didn’t see it was good or not. Lol

 

 

[FlashMaster659]

There it is

 

 

[Mulder]

@Porthos official presales for KoTM have started.

[cdsacken]

@Porthos your previews number prediction was incredible. 

 

I'm in the 55-60m camp with that number. Thoughts?

[The Wild Eric]

Because I know Fandango gon' fuck up somehow this weekend, might as well start this.

 

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

John Wick 3	1,076	1,134	1,355	1,178
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days
Aladdin	663	687	804	747
	18 days	17 days	16 days	15 days
Pets 2 Early		1,402	531	234
		18 days	17 days	16 days
Godzilla	16	180	426	376
	25 days	24 days	23 days	22 days
Secret Life of Pets 2	28	33	26	24
	32 days	31 days	30 days	29 days
Dark Phoenix	0	12	56	89
		31 days	30 days	29 days
Spider-Man FFH	13,647	3,356	1,669	1,073
	57 days	56 days	55 days	54 days

 

And here we go...

John Wick

Day 11-8

165% of Glass (66.6M)

170% of Alita (63.2M using the first 4 days of release)

 

Day 18-8 (minus days 14-12)

13% of Captain Marvel (19.6M)

 

Day 32-8 (minus days 21-19 and 14-12)

16% of Captain Marvel (24M)

 

Day 39-8 (minus days 21-19 and 14-12)

15% of Captain Marvel (22.5M)

 

With Glass and Alita, I finally have comps that actually work. Captain Marvel was fine, but was too big to be perfect. And using the first set of comps...yeah, this is doing wonderful.

 

Aladdin

Day 18-15

57% of Incredibles 2 (103.7M)

412% of Lego 2 (140.8M)

166% of Dragon 3 (91.4M)

126% of Dumbo (58.2M)

249% of Shazam (133.5M)

 

Day 23-15 (minus days 21-19)

63% of Incredibles 2 (116.1M)

550% of Lego 2 (187.6M)

178% of Dragon 3 (97.7M)

145% of Shazam (77.7M)

 

Day 25-15 (minus days 21-19)

74% of Incredibles 2 (135.9M)

211% of Dragon 3 (116.1M)

 

Cumulative (minus days 21-19)

35% of Incredibles 2 (64.5M)

155% of Dragon 3 (85.6M)

 

So generally speaking, almost all of the comps show great results for Aladdin, except Dumbo, which is arguably the best one to use. Hmm...next week might be the determining factor for this movie's potential.

 

Pets 2 Early Access

First 3 Days

16% of Dragon 3's Early Access shows (396K)

86% of Lego 2's Early Access shows (519K)

 

Day 18-16

25% of Dragon 3's Early Access shows (632.7K)

 

Yeesh. This is not looking too good. Even if you want to argue that this might not be presales-driven...you have to use Fandango in order to get tickets. But hey, maybe it'll pick up in the next few days as we get closer and closer.

 

Godzilla

Day 23-22

53% of Shazam (28.2M)

 

Day 25-22

16% of Captain Marvel (24M)

136% of Us (97M)

 

@Mulder Before you pronounce Doomsday, it's important to recognize that it's very early, and I don't have the best comps right now. John Wick seems like a perfect candidate, but there's no numbers to use yet, and I'm sure there are plenty of great comps available in 2018, but I don't have them at the moment. Either way, this seems like a decent enough start, though it will really depend on the boost it gets in the future.

 

Pets

Day 32-29

3% of Incredibles 2 (6.2M)

27% of Dragon 3 (14.9M)

 

Finally, I have days I can work with. And...shockingly, I still can't work with these movies. The big issue is that both Incredibles and Dragon are likely way more pre-sales driven than something like Pets. We are getting Grinch, Hotel, and Lego comps shortly, all of which started pretty low in pre-sales, so at least the movie's got that going for it.

 

Dark Phoenix

Day 31-29

3% of Captain Marvel (5.1M)

83% of Us (59.1M)

 

Like with Godzilla, it's very early and I don't have any good comps right now. So...shrug emoji.

 

Far From Home

First 4 Days

100.1% of Captain Marvel (153.5M)

 

Tricky to look at, since this is opening on a Tuesday, but that seems like a good 6-day to reach for.

[Mulder]

12 hours ago, Mulder said:

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Aladdin-68 (-1), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

John Wick-103 (+3), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular) Final Week

 

Jesus christ Aladdin's situation gets worse every day. It literally lost a seat today. Wick's increase is small but I'm not too worried about it. In total today John Wick sold 3 tickets and Aladdin lost a ticket.

 

First count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-26, 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular)

Aladdin-68, 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

John Wick-103, 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular) Final Week

 

KoTM's ticket sales are already higher then Aladdin's first day in only the first half hour at my theater.

[Mulder]

4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Because I know Fandango gon' fuck up somehow this weekend, might as well start this.

 

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

John Wick 3	1,076	1,134	1,355	1,178
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days
Aladdin	663	687	804	747
	18 days	17 days	16 days	15 days
Pets 2 Early		1,402	531	234
		18 days	17 days	16 days
Godzilla	16	180	426	376
	25 days	24 days	23 days	22 days
Secret Life of Pets 2	28	33	26	24
	32 days	31 days	30 days	29 days
Dark Phoenix	0	12	56	89
		31 days	30 days	29 days
Spider-Man FFH	13,647	3,356	1,669	1,073
	57 days	56 days	55 days	54 days

 

And here we go...

John Wick

Day 11-8

165% of Glass (66.6M)

170% of Alita (63.2M using the first 4 days of release)

 

Day 18-8 (minus days 14-12)

13% of Captain Marvel (19.6M)

 

Day 32-8 (minus days 21-19 and 14-12)

16% of Captain Marvel (24M)

 

Day 39-8 (minus days 21-19 and 14-12)

15% of Captain Marvel (22.5M)

 

With Glass and Alita, I finally have comps that actually work. Captain Marvel was fine, but was too big to be perfect. And using the first set of comps...yeah, this is doing wonderful.

 

Aladdin

Day 18-15

57% of Incredibles 2 (103.7M)

412% of Lego 2 (140.8M)

166% of Dragon 3 (91.4M)

126% of Dumbo (58.2M)

249% of Shazam (133.5M)

 

Day 23-15 (minus days 21-19)

63% of Incredibles 2 (116.1M)

550% of Lego 2 (187.6M)

178% of Dragon 3 (97.7M)

145% of Shazam (77.7M)

 

Day 25-15 (minus days 21-19)

74% of Incredibles 2 (135.9M)

211% of Dragon 3 (116.1M)

 

Cumulative (minus days 21-19)

35% of Incredibles 2 (64.5M)

155% of Dragon 3 (85.6M)

 

So generally speaking, almost all of the comps show great results for Aladdin, except Dumbo, which is arguably the best one to use. Hmm...next week might be the determining factor for this movie's potential.

 

Pets 2 Early Access

First 3 Days

16% of Dragon 3's Early Access shows (396K)

86% of Lego 2's Early Access shows (519K)

 

Day 18-16

25% of Dragon 3's Early Access shows (632.7K)

 

Yeesh. This is not looking too good. Even if you want to argue that this might not be presales-driven...you have to use Fandango in order to get tickets. But hey, maybe it'll pick up in the next few days as we get closer and closer.

 

Godzilla

Day 23-22

53% of Shazam (28.2M)

 

Day 25-22

16% of Captain Marvel (24M)

136% of Us (97M)

 

@Mulder Before you pronounce Doomsday, it's important to recognize that it's very early, and I don't have the best comps right now. John Wick seems like a perfect candidate, but there's no numbers to use yet, and I'm sure there are plenty of great comps available in 2018, but I don't have them at the moment. Either way, this seems like a decent enough start, though it will really depend on the boost it gets in the future.

 

Pets

Day 32-29

3% of Incredibles 2 (6.2M)

27% of Dragon 3 (14.9M)

 

Finally, I have days I can work with. And...shockingly, I still can't work with these movies. The big issue is that both Incredibles and Dragon are likely way more pre-sales driven than something like Pets. We are getting Grinch, Hotel, and Lego comps shortly, all of which started pretty low in pre-sales, so at least the movie's got that going for it.

 

Dark Phoenix

Day 31-29

3% of Captain Marvel (5.1M)

83% of Us (59.1M)

 

Like with Godzilla, it's very early and I don't have any good comps right now. So...shrug emoji.

 

Far From Home

First 4 Days

100.1% of Captain Marvel (153.5M)

 

Tricky to look at, since this is opening on a Tuesday, but that seems like a good 6-day to reach for.

Those weren't official presales so you can't compare them to announced presales like we're getting today.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

 

The system continues to roll

 

2 hours ago, Deja23 said:

@Porthos with accurate estimates as usual. 

Now I know why my notifications were lit up like a Xmas tree this morning.

 

I admit I got nervous last night seeing @DAJK's reports come in, but decided to just let the chips fall where they may.

 

Pleasantly surprised at seeing 5.7.  Makes me wish I put a little more conviction behind it now.  Oh well, good to be humble, I guess.

 

54 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

@Porthos your previews number prediction was incredible. 

 

I'm in the 55-60m camp with that number. Thoughts?

 

I don't know why, but I'm kinda feeling 12x.  Gut level read on that though.  That's certainly reasonable for 10x.  Doubt it'll be much higher than 70m. I'd be very surprised at a low 50. So sure, could see it.

 

But internal multi talk is something I'm really poor at so just take it as a surface level read and not much more.

[Porthos]

Thanks for the tags on KotM, by the way.  Daily reports start up tonight along side Aladdin. 👍

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Thanks for the tags on KotM, by the way.  Daily reports start up tonight along side Aladdin. 👍

Excited to see how it's doing. So far at my theater it's easily the best Day 1 I've seen since Endgame. Already over Aladdin and the day's still early.

 

EDIT: Oh and FFH @Best Day 1 

Edited May 10, 2019 by Mulder

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Minnale101 said:

Just posting the numbers didn’t see it was good or not. Lol

 

 

I know I'm saying it's not.