The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[john2000]

10 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 156/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 178/203

9:00 PM - 175/203

12:00 AM - 108/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 39/78

6:30 PM - 21/63

7:00 PM - 42/78

8:45 PM - 30/60

9:15 PM - 13/78

9:45 PM - 10/63

10:15 PM - 16/78

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 15/55

7:30 PM - 9/167

8:00 PM - 10/114

9:00 PM - 4/79*

10:30 PM - 5/167

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 41/63

8:00 PM - 44/61

8:30 PM - 44/63

10:45 PM - 40/63

11:15 PM - 37/61

11:45 PM - 20/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 25/44

6:15 PM - 34/55

6:30 PM - 158/217

6:45 PM (1) - 22/44

6:45 PM (2) NEW - ?/?*

7:00 PM - 56/79

7:15 PM - 14/44

7:45 PM - 26/44

8:00 PM - 24/45

8:15 PM - 97/167

8:30 PM (1) - 23/45

8:30 PM (2) - 69/114

8:45 PM - 22/44

9:00 PM - 27/49

9:15 PM - 15/44

9:30 PM (1) - 13/55

9:30 PM (2) - 6/55

9:45 PM - 30/217

10:00 PM (1) - 15/48

10:00 PM (2) NEW - 2/44

10:15 PM - 8/79

10:30 PM - 18/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 18/167

11:45 PM - 2/114

 

Total

 

1738(+119)/4089 (42.5%)

 

1.4459x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 one day before previews

 

*9:00 PM RealD 3D became a glitched sell-out so I can't add anymore seats to that show's total until it's fixed.

good jump right ?

[Inceptionzq]

40 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Deadline and THR going conservative.

After that TS4 150-200M prediction by THR, I’m not surprised.

[FlashMaster659]

22 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King - AMC Disney Springs 24 (Thursday)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 119/121

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 276/281

9:15 PM - 275/281

 

RealD 3D

 

6:30 PM - 243/360

6:45 PM - 72/120

7:00 PM - 226/360

10:00 PM - 73/360

10:15 PM - 6/120

10:30 PM - 35/360

 

2D Dine-In

 

6:30 PM - 48/50

7:30 PM - 48/50

10:00 PM - 46/50

11:00 PM - 45/50

 

2D

 

6:15 PM - 139/158

7:15 PM (1) - 109/135

7:15 PM (2) - 110/137

7:45 PM (1) - 122/159

7:45 PM (2) - 99/133

8:15 PM - 428/532

9:45 PM - 112/158

10:45 PM - 85/135

10:50 PM - 86/137

11:15 PM (1) - 61/159

11:15 PM (2) - 31/133

11:30 PM - 54/532

 

Total

 

2948(+132)/5071 (58.1%)

 

The Lion King - AMC Disney Springs 24 (Thursday)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 119/121

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 276/281

9:15 PM - 275/281

 

RealD 3D

 

6:30 PM - 260/360

6:45 PM - 75/120

7:00 PM - 249/360

10:00 PM - 104/360

10:15 PM - 6/120

10:30 PM - 38/360

 

2D Dine-In

 

6:30 PM - 48/50

7:30 PM - 48/50

10:00 PM - 46/50

11:00 PM - 45/50

 

2D

 

6:15 PM - 141/158

7:15 PM (1) - 111/135

7:15 PM (2) - 111/137

7:45 PM (1) - 122/159

7:45 PM (2) - 101/133

8:15 PM - 436/532

9:45 PM - 114/158

10:45 PM - 88/135

10:50 PM - 87/137

11:15 PM (1) - 64/159

11:15 PM (2) - 44/133

11:30 PM - 72/532

 

Total

 

3080(+132)/5071 (60.7%)

Edited July 17, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[FlashMaster659]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

good jump right ?

Better than yesterday but still losing ground to TS4

[CJohn]

@MCKillswitch123 The 6th ever OW over 200.000 tickets sold is about to be unleashed here. The King has arrived to Portugal.

 

Spoiler

For shits and giggles the others are by order: Endgame, Fast 8, Fast 7, Twilight 5, Minions. Only one of these didn't broke the OW record at the time of its release, and it was Minions. Lion King should join it in that small list.

 

Edited July 17, 2019 by CJohn

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

23 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

 

The Lion King -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 2 Days to Previews

 

 

40 show times, 938 (+159) tickets sold out of 3247 (+349) available (28.89%)

 

 

Comps

Captain Marvel - 1140 tickets sold by 5:30pm on Wednesday before previews

Toy Story 4 - 822 tickets sold by 3:30pm on previews night

Pikachu - 280 tickets sold by 7:30pm on Wednesday before previews 

Aladdin - 267 tickets sold by 7:30pm on Wednesday before previews 

 

 

Better jump than I expected. I was modeling a 50% increase in tickets sold over the previous 24 hours and got a nearly 79% increase. 

 

The Lion King -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 1 Day to Previews

 

 

41 show times, 1143 (+205) tickets sold out of 3394 (+147) available (33.68%)

 

 

Comps

Captain Marvel - 1140 tickets sold by 5:30pm on Wednesday before previews

Toy Story 4 - 822 tickets sold by 3:30pm on previews night

Pikachu - 280 tickets sold by 7:30pm on Wednesday before previews 

Aladdin - 267 tickets sold by 7:30pm on Wednesday before previews 

 

 

Passed Captain Marvel today (with 4.5 hours to spare) but I imagine the average ticket price is about 10% lower due to more kids tickets being sold. My final update tomorrow will be around 3:45pm.

[Giesi]

26 minutes ago, CJohn said:

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

For shits and giggles the others are by order: Endgame, Fast 8, Fast 7, Twilight 5, Minions. Only one of these didn't broke the OW record at the time of its release, and it was Minions. Lion King should join it in that small list.

 

Your country does at least have record-breaking numbers to celebrate in recent years....

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Gonna put a guess on tickets sold in Sacto today @Porthos

 

I’m locking in 1154. Final answer. 

[Taruseth]

31 minutes ago, CJohn said:

@MCKillswitch123 The 6th ever OW over 200.000 tickets sold is about to be unleashed here. The King has arrived to Portugal.

 

  Hide contents

For shits and giggles the others are by order: Endgame, Fast 8, Fast 7, Twilight 5, Minions. Only one of these didn't broke the OW record at the time of its release, and it was Minions. Lion King should join it in that small list.

 

That are all new movies from this decade.

 

In Germany that list would be: Harry Potter 1, 2, 4, Ice Age 2, (T)Raumschiff Surprise, The Force Awakens, Fack Ju Göhte 2, Return of the King, Finding Nemo, The Two Towers, so out of those only TFA and FJG2 are from this decade and they are both from within a few month (second half of 2015) and the others were all between 2001 and 2006. Also these ten movies are all that ever opened above 2M admissions.

 

And TLK won't get close.

 

 

7 minutes ago, Giesi said:

Your country does at least have record-breaking numbers to celebrate in recent years....

Yeah...

[el sid]

Ruined my evening with it. First I thought it wouldn't take that long, then I didn't want to give up.
The Lion King, sold tickets for the previews on Thursday and for Friday, counted today from 11am EST on:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 882 (total tickets sold for Thursday, 14 showtimes) / 1.160 (total tickets sold for Friday, 27 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 829 (8 showtimes) / 1.031 (21 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common): 829 + two cinema halls which I couldn't open + 1 sellout which I also couldn't count (27 showtimes – 1 sellout) / 809 + 2 sellouts (28 showtimes  – 2 sellouts)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 1.370 (36 showtimes) / 1.442 (45 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 480+ 1 sellout (23 showtimes – 1 sellout) / 463 (28 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 266 (8 showtimes) / 308 (14 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 373 (7 showtimes) / 410 (16 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 1.315 (10 showtimes) / 1.699 (20 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 1.009 (21 showtimes) / 959 (27 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal : 1.748 + 1 sellout (32 showtimes) / 1.519 (23 showtimes)
Tickets sold in 10 theaters till Wednesday for Thursday: 9.101 + 3 sellouts / for Friday: 9.800 + 2 sellouts.
And nice that it sold even more tickets for Friday than for Thursday.

To give you at least any comparison: Crawl had at that time 261/209, Stuber 312/285.

Edited July 17, 2019 by el sid

[Porthos]

IF Sacramento is still broadly predictive of @Menor's scraper (it's been fairly close so far), I'd expect they'll post around a 12.0m to 12.25m estimate for nationwide sales for Thr, should they do another update today.  

 

Curious to see what they have, if they did an update today.

 

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, el sid said:

Ruined my evening with it. First I thought it wouldn't take that long, then I didn't want to give up.
The Lion King, sold tickets for the previews on Thursday and for Friday, counted today from 11am EST on:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 882 (total tickets sold for Thursday, 14 showtimes) / 1.160 (total tickets sold for Friday, 27 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 829 (8 showtimes) / 1.031 (21 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common): 829 + two cinema halls which I couldn't open + 1 sellout which I also couldn't count (27 showtimes – 1 sellout) / 809 + 2 sellouts (28 showtimes  – 2 sellouts)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 1.370 (36 showtimes) / 1.442 (45 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 480+ 1 sellout (23 showtimes – 1 sellout) / 368 (28 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 266 (8 showtimes) / 308 (14 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 373 (7 showtimes) / 410 (16 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 1.315 (10 showtimes) / 1.699 (20 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 1.009 (21 showtimes) / 959 (27 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal : 1.748 + 1 sellout (32 showtimes) / 1.519 (23 showtimes)
Tickets sold in 10 theaters till Wednesday for Thursday: 9.101 + 3 sellouts / for Friday: 9.705 + 2 sellouts.
And nice that it sold even more tickets for Friday than for Thursday.

To give you at least any comparison: Crawl had at that time 261/209, Stuber 312/285.

Awesome stuff. 180m is looking good even if its PS heavier than family flicks.

[Porthos]

Oh yeah, as might be inferred from my last comment, in Sacto TLK passed TS4's sales at final check last night.

 

TS4 Final:          6706

TLK (last night): 6830

Still have the last two huge days to go.

 

===

 

38 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Gonna put a guess on tickets sold in Sacto today @Porthos

 

I’m locking in 1154. Final answer. 

That would be 1.41x TS4's T-1 for what it's worth.  Would also drag the overall comp down to 1.7368x TS4 (20.8m).  Just goes to show just what I meant about an uphill climb to get to 1.8x TS4 overall.

 

And since it was your final answer, can't change it now that I've mentioned these numbers.

Edited July 17, 2019 by Porthos

[ThomasNicole]

I live in Brazil, here in my city the previews is tonight.

 

Basically all the 13 screenings are sold out, really impressed. Still 6 hours to go, so the only few seats available is probably being sold soon too.

 

It seems like a superhero movie, not a family movie. Expecting an OW not so distant of something like Captain Marvel here...

[JB33]

So is a $200M OW pretty much dead at this point?

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, JB33 said:

So is a $200M OW pretty much dead at this point?

I wouldn't say that.  Not at all, actually.  

 

Let's say it gets a 9.5 internal multi (more based on the insane number of shows during the weekend [see my post on that coming up sometime today)].  21m x 9.5 = 199.5m OW.  Fudge it the tiniest amount over and voila, 200m OW.

 

If this still manages to get a near 10x internal (like I2 did) then 20.2m Thr does it (20.2 x 9.9 = 199.98m).

 

Mostly, I think, it's gonna come down to the internal multi.  If the RT score was higher, I'd be more confident of a 200m OW.  As it is, and given the complaints from critics on RT are different from Aladdin, I think it's still an open question even if it does come in 20 to 21 for Thr.

Edited July 17, 2019 by Porthos

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, JB33 said:

So is a $200M OW pretty much dead at this point?

Not dead, far from it, but this really depends on how frontloaded will be compared to previews.

 

Right now, previews is probably coming with around $ 20 - 22M. If it's more frontloaded than normal, then we're probably looking for an $ 180 - 190M OW, if it's frontloaded but not that much like let's say TS4, then we're looking at $ 200M or more.

 

We're gonna have a better idea with full friday number. 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Not dead, far from it, but this really depends on how frontloaded will be compared to previews.

 

Right now, previews is probably coming with around $ 20 - 22M. If it's more frontloaded than normal, then we're probably looking for an $ 180 - 190M OW, if it's frontloaded but not that much like let's say TS4, then we're looking at $ 200M or more.

 

We're gonna have a better idea with full friday number. 

FWIW, Menor is reporting strong Fri sales so far.  So that's a good sign of it not being hugely frontloaded.

[keysersoze123]

I looked at couple of Plexes in LA and it was like chalk and cheese. Cinemark has sold like shit while AMC at Universal(Disney loons have invaded universal as well 🙂 ) sales have been great.

 

Spoiler

Cinemark Baldwin Hills and XD

3D XD - 40/184 (A3 640PM), 4/184 (A3 940PM)  overall 44/368
3D - 31/172 (A7 7PM), 0/201(A8 8PM), 2/172 (A7 10PM), 0/201 (A8 11PM), 0/172 (A7 1AM) overall 33/818
3D DBOX - 11/20 (A17 7PM), 0/20 (A17 10PM), 0/20 (A17 1AM) overall 11/60
2D - 44/257(A1 620PM), 0/196(A9 720PM), 67/208(A13 740PM), 48/208(A14 830PM), 17/257(A1 920PM), 0/196(A9 1020PM), 11/208(A13 1040PM), 2/208(A14 1130PM),  0/122(A5 1145PM), 0/257(A1 1225AM) overall 189/2117
XD - 84/334 (A2 6PM), 37/334 (A2 9PM),0/334 (A2 1205AM), 0/184 (A3 1245AM) overall 121/1186
DBOX - 3/20 (A16 620PM),  3/20 (A16 920PM), 0/20 (A16 1225AM) 6/60

 

Overall 404/4609 (8.7 %)

AMC Universal Walk

 

Imax 3D - 252/377 (A19 6PM)
Imax - 277/377(A19 9pm), 73/377 (A19 12AM) overall 350/754
3D - 47/118 (A5 615PM), 47/116(A10 715PM),80/177(A14 8PM),51/118 (A5 915PM), 23/116(A10 1015PM),22/177(A14 11PM)   overall 270/822
2D:- 50/86 (A11 630PM), 33/62(A8 640PM), 58/86 (A13 645PM), 112/177(A1 7PM), 31/64 (A6 705PM), 47/86 (A4 730PM), 58/86(A2 745PM), 54/86(A12 815PM), 30/62(A7 820PM), 50/86 (A3 830PM), 34/63(A9 845PM), 44/86 (A11 630PM), 27/62(A8 940PM),29/86 (A13 945PM), 76/177(A1 10PM),14/64 (A6 1005PM), 25/86 (A4 1030PM), 86/86(A2 1045PM), 20/86(A12 1115PM), 9/62(A7 1120PM), 17/86 (A3 1130PM), 13/63(A9 1145PM)  overall 907/1888

 

Overall 1779/3841 ( 46.3%)

 

[Porthos]

Local drive-in FINALLY put up its double feature slate for FSS.

 

And the winner of the TLK sweepstakes is...

 

 

TOY STORY 4!!!!!

 

Sorry, Aladdin.

 

 

(FFH is still doubling with MIB:I as well, for what it matters)

Edited July 17, 2019 by Porthos