The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Shawn Robbins]

21 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

@Shawn Any reason why such a horrible multi is predicted for Joker. Early reviews are not that bad.

Being cautious since it sounds like it will be  very divisive (second hand info, I didn't see the movie myself) + the usual DC fan front loading.

 

Hoping it goes much higher, but also kinda feels like Watchmen on steroids. Comic book source + no family audience is tricky.

[keysersoze123]

13 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Being cautious since it sounds like it will be  very divisive (second hand info, I didn't see the movie myself) + the usual DC fan front loading.

 

Hoping it goes much higher, but also kinda feels like Watchmen on steroids. Comic book source + no family audience is tricky.

Thanks.But this seems to have strong reviews with so many 10/10. So its not as divisive like Watchmen. Plus Joker is lot more mainstream than Watchmen. You could still be right if its not entertaining enough.

[Shawn Robbins]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Thanks.But this seems to have strong reviews with so many 10/10. So its not as divisive like Watchmen. Plus Joker is lot more mainstream than Watchmen. You could still be right if its not entertaining enough.

Yeah, that's a fair point too. I could see a 2.5x multi being doable if WOM really leans positive, I'd just rather under shoot than overshoot.

 

My gut says this could be this year's It in terms of blowing away expectations on OW in fall, largely because it feels like the closest we'll ever get to the kind of interest a second Ledger Joker movie would have had a decade ago. The downside there is it will be hard to live up to that kind of fermented expectation (regarding Ledger-level performance) if this really does breakout into the 100-120+ range from the outset. But maybe this changes the game on what constitutes a "comic book audience" like Deadpool and Logan did.

[Tinalera]

Im interested to see how it plays out. Its getting critical good reviews, will the tickets also respond in kind.

 

Very good point made Shawn about the changing game. Could be one of those movies.

 

Im also interested if what any discussion starts about "comic book joker character" vs "a man becoming joker" (all it takes is one bad day).

[LegendaryBen]

How is pre-sales looking for Hustlers? I'm hoping for 30+ OW with all the positive buzz and reviews it's been getting so far.

[el sid]

15 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

How is pre-sales looking for Hustlers? I'm hoping for 30+ OW with all the positive buzz and reviews it's been getting so far.

Good. Wanted to add it tomorrow but since it's asked here already... 
In "my" 10 theaters I counted last Thursday 457/535 sold tickets which is e.g. on par with what Good Boys had on Tuesday (= 2 days before its previews), namly 567/447 (means: sold tickets for Thursday/sold tickets for Friday). Only even less frontloaded.

Edited September 8, 2019 by el sid

[Inceptionzq]

1 hour ago, LegendaryBen said:

How is pre-sales looking for Hustlers? I'm hoping for 30+ OW with all the positive buzz and reviews it's been getting so far.

92/1784 in 7 theaters yesterday. Don’t have any good comps for it, but I’ll post the count on Thursday with a Good Boys comp

[Tinalera]

So im reading 91 million approx for wekend preliminary. If the numbers stay in that area then im now watching wom and legs. Will be interesting to see how it plays.

[Valonqar]

Hustlers Over Dark Fate and Charlie's Angels OW Club. There, I said it. Hustlers will open bigger than Terminator 46478 and Charlie's Angels Remake of a Remake. People will be curious to see Lopez in Oscar buzz performance. other 2 movies have nothing like it going for them. 

Edited September 8, 2019 by Valonqar

[reddevil19]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

Hustlers Over Dark Fate and Charlie's Angels OW Club. There, I said it. Hustlers will open bigger than Terminator 46478 and Charlie's Angels Remake of a Remake. People will be curious to see Lopez in Oscar buzz performance. other 2 movies have nothing like it going for them. 

Definitely agree on Charlie's Angels. Had the movie at least been cast right, I would argue mid-30s, but as is, yeah, I agree with you. Dark Fate... I still think there's enough of a fanbase that will at least return as they are glutons for punishment. I wouldn't be surprised with a low 50s opening...

Edited September 8, 2019 by reddevil19

[Valonqar]

3 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Definitely agree on Charlie's Angels. Had the movie at least been cast right, I would argue mid-30s, but as is, yeah, I agree with you. Dark Fate... I still think there's enough of a fanbase that will at least return as they are glutons for punishment. I wouldn't be surprised with a low 50s opening...

Very true. never underestimate those types especially in a combo with nostalgia (Arnie and Linda return).

[TLK]

I don't think Hustlers will go over $30 million . It is a R-rated stripper movie and they have a ceiling. It should have a good multiplier though. Both CA and T6 should open above that.

[Tinalera]

A ways off but Doctor Sleep box office is going to be intriguing, reading reactions to final trailer. Discussion about how it is/isnt like the book, how the movie is/isnt following kubricks shining vs not, people and places that are or not in book/shining novel/kubrick shining. Like there are people who do/dont want to see it for any combination of the above. Really hard to tell how this might do by the sheer varied amount of opinions, and im fascinated

Edited September 9, 2019 by Tinalera

[lorddemaxus]

 

[Parasite]

Joker pre-sales started today in France. 

Any idea on the US date? 

[Inceptionzq]

7 hours ago, Parasite said:

Joker pre-sales started today in France. 

Any idea on the US date? 

I’m 99.9% sure this week. I’d be really surprised otherwise. Tomorrow makes sense because of the TIFF showing tonight

Edited September 10, 2019 by Inceptionzq

[Porthos]

Been checking a few times every day.  Joker is NOT yet up, but Maleficent 2 tickets started to pop up locally at a few theaters sometime today but are NOT yet for sale.

 

Looks to be 7pm previews with 3D and PLF.   No Opening Night Fan Event, so pure 7pm near as I can tell.

 

So that'll be starting up any day now.  Probably won't track Maleficent 2 full time based on Shawn's estimates for the OW. But I might take a look at it once it does start and decide to track it after all if Shawn has lowballed it.

Edited September 10, 2019 by Porthos

[Tinalera]

Its like we are all sitting here just waiting for tickets for joker to go on sale not to buy but to track "just start giving us those number counts dangnabit!"🕦🕢  tick tick tick

 

Edited September 10, 2019 by Tinalera

[The Wild Eric]

Hustlers Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	26	272	3,525	7.72%

 

Comp

0.418x of Once Upon 3 days before release (2.42M)

2.211x of Scary Stories 3 days before release (5.15M)

5.44x of Good Boys 3 days before release (11.42M)

 

 

 

This is crazy good, especially for a Monday. Even using some more lolcomps like Lion King or It 2, it still is something like 1.5M+. Those comps will probably go down a bit (the Good Boys one especially. Its last day was just bonkers), but it's very comfortably ahead that we should see a great preview number either way.

[Cap]

Hustlers - Downton Abbey - Ad Astra

Thursday Previews

 

Lincoln Square 13
Movie	Today		9/9	Total	%		SOs	Tele SOs	Shows
Hustlers	--		142	648	21.91%		0	0	2
Downton Abbey	--		405	891	45.45%		0	1	3
Ad Astra	--		228	1694	13.45%		0	0	4

 

Downton Abbey includes the Sneak Peak showing on September 12th.  That showing is 217/297.

 

Hustlers looks solid.

 

@JB33 Ad Astra's another "all tickets but two are IMAX" situation.  

 

First Day Comps (Not including DA cause I don't know when those went on sales):

 

LS13 - First Day Sales
Endgame	4665
Lion King	1002
Dark Phoenix	479
Godzilla	434
John Wick 3	313
It: Chapter 2	306
Toy Story 4	287
Aladdin	277
Ad Astra	229
Thorkyrie AU	203
Yesterday	182
Pika Pika	155
Hustlers	142
Rocketman	122
Hobbs & Shaw	65
Secret Lives of Pets 2	9

 

 

Southern Maine Cinemagic
Movie	Today		9/1	Total	%		SOs	Tele SOs	Shows
Downton Abbey	--		70	522	13.40%		0	0	3

 

These are just for the September 12 Sneak Peak.  Tickets are not showing up for any of the future releases at Cinemagic, which doesn't shock me.  They usually put on their non-"EVENT" schedules on Tuesday.