The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

I wonder if 175k is even possible 👀

 

MTC 1 has already 37% of its shows sold out. Now this is where Regal absence shall start hurting the movie. Not for like Raya missed Cinemark because it wasn't even selling AMC.

Edited March 31, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Borobudur]

Unlike Tenet and WW84, GvK is the first true tentpole since pandemic hit with the support from both NY and LA where they are back online. The only "disappointment" is the absence of Canada market. Based on that improvement alone, GvK should make 30m in 3 days instead of 5 days like how Variety and Deadline projected.

 

Edited March 31, 2021 by Borobudur

[charlie Jatinder]

I think folks here stopped caring about Deadline or Variety says a long time ago.

 

Tracking thread >>>> All the agencies Hollywood pay money to tell what their film is opening to.

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla vs Kong - (T-1) //End of day. 

MTC1 - 122819/546894 1556731.00 3313 shows(322 theatres) +24640 // 129 shows have not sold any tickets and 1222(+407) sellouts

MTC2 -  121014/599297 1302857.32 4417 shows(293 theatres) +26544 // 255 shows have not sold any tickets and 590(+161) sellouts

 

MTC1 PWP -  data cannot be pulled. All PWP at MTC1 have been removed for same day. 

MTC2 PWP - 1799 sellouts (+86)

 

HUGE increase from the afternoon. Showtimes have gone up huge and ticket sales are up more in 10 hours than previous 20 hours. At this rate its looking like 175K+ at both MTC !!! MTC2 is also selling more pace than MTC1 at this point. 

Quick morning update. MTC1 started at 128629 tickets and MTC2 at 127394. Sold out shows at MTC1 is at 1677(+455) !!! and MTC2 is at 693(+103). MTC2 PWP is at 1849(+50). You cannot do same day booking of PWP at MTC1. As @charlie Jatinder said issue with increase today is lack of shows. MTC1 has sold out 40% of shows in reserved theatres and over half the shows in non reserved theatres. Theatres are adding shows (Empire 25 is up to 48 shows from 24 shows couple of days ago. 35 shows have sold out already). But there is only so much that can be added. Issue would be lack of Regal, Arclight and many AMC theatres that operate only Friday to Sunday. So MTC will skew bigger. 

 

@charlie Jatinder One thing missing from $ value above is for non-reserved theatres. I can see sellouts about 400+ from there. But dont know how many seats or ticket price for the show. There are also close to 500 shows that have not sold out in non reserved shows. That could add another $1 million to the gross. 

[john2000]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Quick morning update. MTC1 started at 128629 tickets and MTC2 at 127394. Sold out shows at MTC1 is at 1677(+455) !!! and MTC2 is at 693(+103). MTC2 PWP is at 1849(+50). You cannot do same day booking of PWP at MTC1. As @charlie Jatinder said issue with increase today is lack of shows. MTC1 has sold out 40% of shows in reserved theatres and over half the shows in non reserved theatres. Theatres are adding shows (Empire 25 is up to 48 shows from 24 shows couple of days ago. 35 shows have sold out already). But there is only so much that can be added. Issue would be lack of Regal, Arclight and many AMC theatres that operate only Friday to Sunday. So MTC will skew bigger. 

 

@charlie Jatinder One thing missing from $ value above is for non-reserved theatres. I can see sellouts about 400+ from there. But dont know how many seats or ticket price for the show. There are also close to 500 shows that have not sold out in non reserved shows. That could add another $1 million to the gross. 

Warner Bros. will release GODZILLA VS. KONG in 2,409 domestic locations today, expanding to 3,064 on Friday. This will mark the first time during the pandemic any film has played at 3,000+ theaters in North America.

[Borobudur]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Quick morning update. MTC1 started at 128629 tickets and MTC2 at 127394. Sold out shows at MTC1 is at 1677(+455) !!! and MTC2 is at 693(+103). MTC2 PWP is at 1849(+50). You cannot do same day booking of PWP at MTC1. As @charlie Jatinder said issue with increase today is lack of shows. MTC1 has sold out 40% of shows in reserved theatres and over half the shows in non reserved theatres. Theatres are adding shows (Empire 25 is up to 48 shows from 24 shows couple of days ago. 35 shows have sold out already). But there is only so much that can be added. Issue would be lack of Regal, Arclight and many AMC theatres that operate only Friday to Sunday. So MTC will skew bigger. 

 

@charlie Jatinder One thing missing from $ value above is for non-reserved theatres. I can see sellouts about 400+ from there. But dont know how many seats or ticket price for the show. There are also close to 500 shows that have not sold out in non reserved shows. That could add another $1 million to the gross. 

Didn't they know this week is Easter week? Also, the capacity restriction and absence of Regal will end up killing off the holdovers more than usual so it is likely to witness some notable drop this week

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

@charlie Jatinder One thing missing from $ value above is for non-reserved theatres. I can see sellouts about 400+ from there. But dont know how many seats or ticket price for the show. There are also close to 500 shows that have not sold out in non reserved shows. That could add another $1 million to the gross.

So does the sellout and total shows include these shows but not their gross or admits or altogether nothing?

 

Just tell me one thing, the number of ticket sold and gross are from the 320 theaters only from MTC 1 and doesn't miss anything in those 320?

 

If nothing else works, we just have data from 610 theaters and its playing in 2400, will probably use some method to work on that, let's just get the final numbers.

[Porthos]

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	90	214	2194	7643	5449	71.29%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	41
Total Showings Added Today	9*
Total Seats Added Today	108
Total Seats Sold Today	1414

* Includes five non-reserved seating showings at the local drive-in

 

====

 

T-1 Comps (100% guaranteed lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM (Thr Prev)	274.09		351	1988		0/125	13495/15483	12.84%		17.26m
KotM adj (Thr Prev)	250.05		351	1988		0/125	13495/15483	12.84%		15.75m

KotM adj accounts for the two theaters that have moved to fully reserved seating since KotM debuted.

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	74
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	8
Adjusted Seats Approximation	1296

 

 

EDIT::::

Wild-Assed Guesstimate Comp based on reasoning/formula in this post:  11.02m

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: OPENING DAY MID DAY REPORT [12:00 - 12:55]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	124	231	1634	8024	6390	79.64%

 

Total Sellouts Added Since Last Night	34
Total Showings Added Since Last Night	17
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	381
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	941

 

====

 

T-0 Comps (100% guaranteed lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM (Thr Prev) [12:00 - 12:55]	267.78		398	2386		0/125	13097/15483	15.41%		16.87m
KotM adj (Thr Prev) [12:00 - 12:55]	235.25		398	2386		0/125	13495/15483	15.41%		14.82m

KotM adj accounts for the two theaters that have moved to fully reserved seating since KotM debuted.

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	77
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	8
Adjusted Seats Approximation	1344

All PWP in the area are SOLD OUT

Wild-Assed Guesstimate Comp based on reasoning/formula in this post:  10.22m

 

======

 

Wild-assed guesstimate came down simply because there aren't enough seats to keep up with demand.  Corporate sites are sluggish as all get out (almost certainly because they haven't been paying for bandwidth allocation), and the only real amount of seats left (uncapped) are the least trafficked theaters in town.

 

No idea whatsoever where this is landing.  Just that Sacramento is damn near capped today.

Edited March 31, 2021 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: OPENING DAY MID DAY REPORT [12:00 - 12:55]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	124	231	1634	8024	6390	79.64%

 

Total Sellouts Added Since Last Night	34
Total Showings Added Since Last Night	17
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	381
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	941

 

====

 

T-0 Comps (100% guaranteed lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM (Thr Prev) [12:00 - 12:55]	267.78		398	2386		0/125	13097/15483	15.41%		16.87m
KotM adj (Thr Prev) [12:00 - 12:55]	235.25		398	2386		0/125	13495/15483	15.41%		14.82m

KotM adj accounts for the two theaters that have moved to fully reserved seating since KotM debuted.

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	77
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	8
Adjusted Seats Approximation	1344

All PWP in the area are SOLD OUT

Wild-Assed Guesstimate Comp based on reasoning/formula in this post:  10.22m

 

======

 

Wild-assed guesstimate came down simply because there aren't enough seats to keep up with demand.  Corporate sites are sluggish as all get out (almost certainly because they haven't been paying for bandwidth allocation), and the only real amount of seats left (uncapped) are the least trafficked theaters in town.

 

No idea whatsoever where this is landing.  Just that Sacramento is damn near capped today.

Sacramento is 25% capped right? If so, that seems quite decent for a final midday. I expect that areas with bigger caps will see more sizable jumps. 

Edited March 31, 2021 by Menor

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Menor said:

Sacramento is 25% capped right? If so, that seems quite decent for a final midday. I expect that areas with bigger caps will see more sizable jumps. 

One theater is 50% capped due to being in a neighboring county, but otherwise, yes.

 

And, yes, very very decent I think.

 

EDIT:::

 

I would also add that the showings added today were getting snapped up left and right, which suggests that walkup/day-of is pretty damn strong.  Well that and the damn near 1000 tickets sold between last night and 30 minutes ago. 

Edited March 31, 2021 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

43 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So does the sellout and total shows include these shows but not their gross or admits or altogether nothing?

 

Just tell me one thing, the number of ticket sold and gross are from the 320 theaters only from MTC 1 and doesn't miss anything in those 320?

 

If nothing else works, we just have data from 610 theaters and its playing in 2400, will probably use some method to work on that, let's just get the final numbers.

Sellout does include non reserved as I get the numbers. Total Shows I should probably add them but for now they are only the reserved shows I track. I will try to fix it with the next update. Gross I cannot get for non reserved as I have no idea about the capacity for Individual show and ticket price etc get the gross. but overall it wont make a huge difference. Today the sellouts from non reserved is big and so it will add ~ 200K to MTC1 gross, but I just dont want to put an adhoc number. The $ value seen in my data is calculated for all reserved shows using the adult ticket price for the show. 

 

I am tracking every reserved show and that is bigger than what I did with SW9 or Joker. So it will be a big % of overall BO. How big let us find out today. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Ok so if 941 tickets were sold between last night and midday, lets say it adds another 600-700 in Sacramento. That will be slightly above yesterday which was 1414. Now the 24-hour for T-1 at the 2 MTC was probably let's say ~35k at each. If it follows that ratio in Sac then it would add about another 40k at both MTC to finish at maybe 165x2 = 330k. But I suspect regions with higher capacity limits will see more growth. So I think 170k+ is possible. If low-capacity areas are basically selling out then the higher-capacity areas will certainly see big boosts. 

Edited March 31, 2021 by Menor

[keysersoze123]

On 3/29/2021 at 7:31 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla vs Kong (Day 3 Friday BO)

MTC1 - 37434/605291 501815.00 3143 shows(410 theatres) // 800 shows with no tickets sold and 166 sellouts

MTC2 - 35611/606604 415885.18 4006 shows (292 theatres) // 1311 shows with no tickets sold and 109 sellouts

 

PWP MTC1 has 1137 sellouts and MTC2 has 2053 sellouts. 

 

As I mentioned yesterday more theatres are playing GVK from friday onwards at MTC1 and so tracked theatres shoot up big time. Obviously its highly skewed towards OD sales at this point but PWP numbers are good though it may not be just GVK. 

Godzilla vs Kong (Day 3 Friday BO) // last update was Monday night

MTC1 - 59792/874045 773583.00 4788 shows(427 theatres) +22358 // 1199 shows with no tickets sold and 279(+113) sellouts

MTC2 -  52319/673711 604502.39 4533 shows(293 theatres) +16708 // 1311 shows with no tickets sold and 150(+41) sellouts

 

PWP MTC1 has 1716(+579) sellouts and MTC2 has 2284(+231) sellouts. 

 

Day 3 its playing wide in MTC1 and has more shows at both MTC. PS will be well below OD PS but walk ups should be better. Let us wait and watch. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

20 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla vs Kong (Day 3 Friday BO) // last update was Monday night

MTC1 - 59792/874045 773583.00 4788 shows(427 theatres) +22358 // 1199 shows with no tickets sold and 279(+113) sellouts

MTC2 -  52319/673711 604502.39 4533 shows(293 theatres) +16708 // 1311 shows with no tickets sold and 150(+41) sellouts

 

PWP MTC1 has 1716(+579) sellouts and MTC2 has 2284(+231) sellouts. 

 

Day 3 its playing wide in MTC1 and has more shows at both MTC. PS will be well below OD PS but walk ups should be better. Let us wait and watch. 

It's at like 80% of what OD PS was at this point, and the pace is better. I think PS can come close to matching OD. 

Edited April 1, 2021 by Menor

[Porthos]

28 minutes ago, Menor said:

Ok so if 941 tickets were sold between last night and midday, lets say it adds another 600-700 in Sacramento. That will be slightly above yesterday which was 1414.

As a reminder, I'll take my final sample around 4pm to give it a like-for-like comp against KotM.  Might decide to wait 'till 5pm or 5:30pm to more match my other comps that I normally took at those times.  But it might not matter all that much given so many late shows are sold out. 

 

We'll see.  But I won't be surprised at all if my "wild-assed guesstimate" comes in around 9m. 

 

As an aside, the ratio of Wed GvK to Thr Prev KotM comes in pretty nicely to my guesstimate from local theaters.

 

2409/4108 = 58.64%

11/19 = 57.89%

 

Nice to see when a plan comes together.

 

Pity about the difference in matinee tickets, though. 😕 

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

As a reminder, I'll take my final sample around 4pm to give it a like-for-like comp against KotM.  Might decide to wait 'till 5pm or 5:30pm to more match my other comps that I normally took at those times.  But it might not matter all that much given so many late shows are sold out. 

 

We'll see.  But I won't be surprised at all if my "wild-assed guesstimate" comes in around 9m. 

 

As an aside, the ratio of Wed GvK to Thr Prev KotM comes in pretty nicely to my guesstimate from local theaters.

 

2409/4108 = 58.64%

11/19 = 57.89%

 

Nice to see when a plan comes together.

 

Pity about the difference in matinee tickets, though. 😕 

I wasn't extrapolating from hourly pace but from KOTM. Since KOTM added another 492 tickets between your noon and 4pm, GvK should be able to do ~600 more even if it starts getting hit hard by capacity limits. The midnight-noon pace was more than double KOTM. 

Edited March 31, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

@keysersoze123 can we get the number of MTC 1 open today. I assume on Friday all of them open since count will bump to 3k, but today it's 2.4k only nationwide 

[charlie Jatinder]

With 3,064 locs reported, actual may go 3.1k plus by Friday. 

 

There are 250+ locs missing in Canada & 500 approx  Regal. That means there are atleast 400 theaters which used to release a film of this size won't be open.

Edited March 31, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

42 minutes ago, Menor said:

I wasn't extrapolating from hourly pace but from KOTM. Since KOTM added another 492 tickets between your noon and 4pm, GvK should be able to do ~600 more even if it starts getting hit hard by capacity limits. The midnight-noon pace was more than double KOTM. 

I would take the "under" on that, personally, simply due to the fact that the most trafficked theaters in town are already slammed by capacity limits.

 

Like, Century Arden?  Three tickets left.  For the rest of the night. Other "A tier" theaters aren't much better.

 

To hit that number you're looking for, gonna have to really do well in the outlying/underperforming theaters in town.

 

(also don't forget two of the theaters aren't going to the wild-assed guesstimate owing to the fact that they weren't reserved seating at the time of KotM.

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

(also don't forget two of the theaters aren't going to the wild-assed guesstimate owing to the fact that they weren't reserved seating at the time of KotM.

Just to drive this point home.  If I exclude the seat count for showings that I shouldn't be comping against KotM, as of right now, more or less:

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	139	233	477	6282	5805	92.41%

(they're still in the showing count, just not the seat level data)

 

That's... That's not many seats left.

 

And as I said a ton of them are at a couple of theaters which don't usually see as much foot traffic.

 

I mean, it could happen.  But, like I said, I'd take the under and then be pleasantly surprised if it manages to do that after all.

Edited March 31, 2021 by Porthos