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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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14 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Since you didn't update afterwards, not entirely sure what to make of these, but gonna try.

US Only
Monday-Wednesday: $3mn

Thursday: $1.1-1.3mn

Friday: $3.5-4mn

 

So around $4.6-5.3mn opening day in USA + $0.3mn Approx Canada giving $4.9-5.6mn OD.

 

My exact shot will be $5.1mn Friday in NA. Weekend $13.5mn weekend.

 

that would be very low wont be ?

 

 

if so with canada from last weekend what will be the total dom this weekend ?

Edited by john2000
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6 hours ago, john2000 said:

that would be very low wont be ?

 

 

if so with canada from last weekend what will be the total dom this weekend ?

Well, a 13.5m weekend adding the previews of about 4.3m puts it at 17.8m. I can't remember the estimates last week from Canada.. wasn't it speculated like 3-4m here? So about 21-22m Sunday total with all these factors. Really weak since it's below the 25m conservative tracking. 

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When we will start getting Mulan numbers/ Parituclraly interesting to see if the 30 buck PPV price will trun out.

IMHO there is a big psychological barrier to paying that much for a streaming movie. I know that m9ight be less then paying to see it with a family of four, but the mental barrier is still there.

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2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Sorry Guys. 

 

Here you go

 

Tenet 9/3 Thursday Previews

MTC1 - 20163/285942 233.5K (1805 shows)

MTC2 - 15414/286706 159K (2124 shows)

 

Tenet OD

MTC1 - 35783/500498 398.5K (3156 shows)

MTC2 - 30613/391823 328K (2789 shows)

 

Not sure how to extrapolate the numbers. I will let @charlie Jatinder do that. 

$1mn previews

$2.5-2.75mn Friday

 

 

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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So this is the future: release it in theaters in Europe/Asia/Latin America/Oceania 2-4 weeks before releasing it on VOD in America in order to not kill the theatrical run with piracy. 

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41 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

$1mn previews

$2.5-2.75mn Friday

 

 

To be crystal clear, my apoc face is @the numbers, not @ you for estimating them.   
 

Unless WB comes in with 30M tomorrow, then the meaning retroactively switches ;) 

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9 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

 

That looks horrible, I guess?

 

It'd be pretty disastrous, it's really no better than New Mutants' OD, granted Tenet burned off demand with previews and such. And of course we're working off limited data.

 

But this seems to imply there is a significant ceiling in terms of people willing to go back into theaters. Mixed reception may be a part of it, but Europe opened pretty well all things considered, so Tenet should be doing better than what would look like a sub 20m opening week. So all other things being equal, it's the COVID situation I feel.

Edited by MrPink
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23 hours ago, Eric #RIPChadwick said:

The Broken Hearts Gallery Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Unavailable Total Seats? % Unavailable
TOTALS 0 10 6 498 1.20%

 

Comps

0.039x of New Mutants 6 days before release (2.9K)

 

Didn't really plan on doing this earlier, but there's nothing else presales-wise to discuss, so might as well give this a shot. And yes, I am aware that New Mutants is a very flimsy comp...but I have literally nothing else to work with. Sorry.

The Broken Hearts Gallery Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Unavailable Total Seats? % Unavailable
TOTALS 0 10 6 498 1.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

 

Comps

0.036x of New Mutants 5 days before release (2.73K)

 

...welp.

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For a better analysis of @keysersoze123 numbers, doing some math. There are two ways to do it,

One is per show average performance.

Second is checking how many shows we tracked of Nationwide.

Spoiler

New Mutants OD

MTC1 - 26485/318633  293K (1807 shows)

MTC2 - 27326/329682  296K (2176 shows)

 

The New Mutants had an true Friday of $2.02mn Approx in USA.

 

Approach 1: Looking at show wise numbers, it had Per Show Average of $162 in MTC 1 and $136 in MTC 2 on OD. TNM had $960 approx PTA for True Friday, which assuming there were around 10 shows per locs on an average, means $96 approx, around 60% of MTC 1 and 70% of MTC 2.

 

Approach 2: MTC 1 had less than half of theaters open while MTC 2 had around 60%, which would be 475 Approx. That's about 22.5% of TNM'S total USA locs, but the show count seems extremely low for that many theaters open, usually a big film has 13-15 shows on an average per locs as per Keyser, in case of TNM it just 6.5 and 11 respectively. We have roughly 4k shows tracked, that's 19% Approx of total. So 19% tracked shows had 29% of total gross.

 

Coming to TENET,

Spoiler

Tenet OD

MTC1 - 35783/500498 398.5K (3156 shows)

MTC2 - 30613/391823 328K (2789 shows)

 

Approach 1: MTC 1 per show is $126 and MTC 2 is $117. That's lower than TNM. Yikes. I am thinking of on an average $80 per show avg across country. Assuming 12 shows per loc for TENET, we have around 30k shows, that gives about $2.4mn Approx US only True Friday.

 

Approach 2: MTC 1 and MTC 2 both have around 70% of theaters open, that will be around 27% of total US locs it is releasing, considerably up from 23% of TNM. Show wise, we have 19.75% of shows tracked, that should be 30% of total country box office. Again $2.42mn.

 

Canada I am thinking of $375k 2nd Friday Approx.

 

TL;DR: North America $2.8mn True Friday.  

 

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

For a better analysis of @keysersoze123 numbers, doing some math.

  Hide contents

New Mutants OD

MTC1 - 26485/318633  293K (1807 shows)

MTC2 - 27326/329682  296K (2176 shows)

 

The New Mutants had an true Friday of $2mn Approx in USA. So Keyser numbers were 29.5% (MTC 1 & 2 15% each approx). MTC 1 had less than half of theaters open while MTC 2 had over 60%. That's about 23% of TNM'S total USA locs, but the show cont seems extremely low for that many theaters open, usually a big film has 13-15 shows on an average per locs as per Keyser, in case of TNM it just 6.5 and 11 respectively.

 

Looking at show wise numbers, it had Per Show Average of $162 in MTC 1 and $136 in MTC 2 on OD. TNM had $950 approx PTA for True Friday, which assuming there were around 10 shows per locs on an average, means $95 approx, around 60% of MTC 1 and 70% of MTC 2.

 

Other way to look is, roughly 19% of shows tracked nationwide, gave 30% of the box office.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

In TENET case, MTC 1 and MTC 2 both have around 70% of theaters open, that will be around 31% of total US locs it is releasing, considerably up from 23% of TNM. 

 

MTC 1 per show is $126 and MTC 2 is $117. That's lower than TNM. Yikes. Anyways per loc show average is 7.5 for MTC 1 and 12 for MTC 2. A shift increase from TNM. I am thinking of on an average $80 per show avg across country. That gives about $2.3mn US only True Friday.

 

Second way is, 20.7% of shows were tracked, that should be 32% of total country box office. Again $2.25-2.3mn.

 

Canada I am thinking of $300-325k 2nd Friday Approx.

 

 

i hope not

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Tenet Opening Saturday

MTC1 - 45456/535242 442K (3403 shows)

MTC2 - 40123/451165 422K (3156 shows)

 

One thing to note is this is not complete MTC data. There are theaters without reserved seating. Normally they dont matter as big markets dominate overall gross. But with NY/CA theaters down, I feel they will have a bigger share than otherwise. 

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