The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Nova]

6 minutes ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

Ok, somebody with knowledge about pulse tell me is this normal or aliens is in bad shape.

Aliens isn't really a pre-sales movie. It's more walk-up. Having said that, it's also a franchise film and judging by its preview/Friday number, we can assume that the film isn't going to be backloaded like initially thought. To summarize, I wouldn't worry. Aliens will still do high 30s for its OW but just don't expect it to have strong legs. 

[trifle]

2 hours ago, Nova said:

Aliens isn't really a pre-sales movie. It's more walk-up. Having said that, it's also a franchise film and judging by its preview/Friday number, we can assume that the film isn't going to be backloaded like initially thought. To summarize, I wouldn't worry. Aliens will still do high 30s for its OW but just don't expect it to have strong legs. 

 

they're guessing $40M ow for Aliens

 

Quote

BoxOffice‏ @BoxOffice 2m2 minutes ago

 

Weekend Projections: ‘Alien: Covenant’ Pacing for $40M; ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2’ Adds $35M...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quote

Weekend Projections: ‘Alien: Covenant’ Pacing for $40M; ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2’ Adds $35M; ‘Everything, Everything’ ($11M) Solid; ‘Wimpy Kid’ ($7.2M) Modest

 

http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-projections-alien-covenant-everything-everything-wimpy-kid-long-haul/

Edited May 20, 2017 by trifle

[The Panda]

40m OW would be much better for my Summer Game, so I hope it does it.

[nomyth]

I can't wait to get some tracking #'s for All Eyez on Me. I think it's heading towards a big breakout.

[dxmatrixdt]

So right now on the Fandango pulse, it looks like this:

1. Alien

2. GOTG

3. Everything

4. King Arthur

5. GOTG 3D

 

and for Movietickets, it is this...

1. GOTG - 30%

2. Alien - 25%

3. Everything - 8%

4. Wimpy - 8%

5. Snatched - 6%

 

 

Does movietickets combine 2d and 3d????   for Fandango Pulse it has two separate slots, so maybe combined GOTG is ahead of Alien. 

[drdungbeetle]

People really need to stop obsessing over advance sales on here. It's lending itself to some very dramatic miscalculations given how dependent most movies are on walkups. Visiting this thread you'd think that every single movie is like Deathly Hallows.

[Barnack]

14 minutes ago, drdungbeetle said:

People really need to stop obsessing over advance sales on here. It's lending itself to some very dramatic miscalculations given how dependent most movies are on walkups. Visiting this thread you'd think that every single movie is like Deathly Hallows.

 

Didn't follow them at all until very recently, but the correlation is extremely strong between those sales movie ranking and actual BO ranking no ?

 

I think people are wise enough to apply a target audience/sequel or not/genre adjustment.

[drdungbeetle]

Just now, Barnack said:

 

Didn't follow them at all until very recently, but the correlation is extremely strong between those sales movie ranking and actual BO ranking no ?

 

I think people are wise enough to apply a target audience/sequel or not/genre adjustment.

No, it isn't. People were acting like Alien Covenant would have a much higher opening than it did because the "high presales" basically applied to Thurs. screenings only.

It really isn't reliable and seems to lead people on this forum to disappointment more often than not (esp. since Thurs. screenings are much more numerous than they used to be)

[Barnack]

Just now, drdungbeetle said:

No, it isn't.

 

Source ?

 

If I am to look at pre-sales of 200 movies and their first weekend, you think I will not found a strong correlation ? You have an R2 of how much in mind, below 0.4 ?

 

That would surprise me a lot, did you find a study or did one or this is just a feeling ?

 

Convenant had high pre-sales that did lead to a high thur, if the movie would have been good that would have turned it in a nice 40m OW, it did not.

 

Obviously pre-sales will be much more correlated to thursday, than OW, than total run, but they are not a useless metric, they are one of the best it is actual people buying actual ticket.

[drdungbeetle]

52 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Source ?

 

If I am to look at pre-sales of 200 movies and their first weekend, you think I will not found a strong correlation ? You have an R2 of how much in mind, below 0.4 ?

 

That would surprise me a lot, did you find a study or did one or this is just a feeling ?

 

Convenant had high pre-sales that did lead to a high thur, if the movie would have been good that would have turned it in a nice 40m OW, it did not.

 

Obviously pre-sales will be much more correlated to thursday, than OW, than total run, but they are not a useless metric, they are one of the best it is actual people buying actual ticket.

Considering that presales tend to be concentrated on Thurs and some movies can be very front loaded, I'm really not buying this.

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, drdungbeetle said:

Considering that presales tend to be concentrated on Thurs and some movies can be very front loaded, I'm really not buying this.

 

Not buying what ? Aliens still opened number one destroying the other 2 new release and 36m is just 10% lower than 40m, all this with a mixed reception.

 

IT would not surprise me if we look at the ranking of the new release and how they ranked on those different metric, will see a strong link between those 2 ranking, same for the holdover.

[drdungbeetle]

Just now, Barnack said:

 

Not buying what ? Aliens still opened number one destroying the other 2 new release and 36m is just 10% lower than 40m, all this with a mixed reception.

 

IT would not surprise me if we look at the ranking of the new release and how they ranked on those different metric, will see a strong link between those 2 ranking, same for the holdover.

There were plenty of people suspecting 45, even 50 mil with the preview sales it got.

[Barnack]

19 minutes ago, drdungbeetle said:

There were plenty of people suspecting 45, even 50 mil with the preview sales it got.

 

Those people were over predicting imo that does not made pre-sales a useless metric, the trade did put it at 40 to 45 and studio too was aiming way below prometheus.

 

Prometheus had a 3.56m Thurs when they were midnight real preview numbers, Alien Convenant started at 7/7:30 pm and did a 4.2m, that was a clear sign that it would be below it Prometheus.

 

It the movie would have been really good (like Fury Road that did 45m from a 3.7 million Thursday), it could still have made 40-45m like expected.

Edited May 22, 2017 by Barnack

[drdungbeetle]

3 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Those people were over predicting imo that does not made pre-sales a useless metric, the trade did put it at 40 to 45 and studio too was aiming way below prometheus.

 

Prometheus had a 3.56m Thurs when they were midnight real preview numbers, Alient Convenant started at 7/7:30 pm and did a 4.2m, that was a clear sign that it would be below it Prometheus.

 

It the movie would have been really good (like Fury Road that did 45m from a 3.7 million Thursday), it could still have made 40-45m like expected.

Fury Road had close to 100% RT though, Covenant MIGHT have gotten it in an absolute best case scenario, but by that point it was clear that the reviews/reception were far more mixed. 36 mil was far below what people extrapolating solely from presales came out with though.

[Plain Old Tele]

Presales are interesting and helpful but when you use them to predict, your predictions will only be as good as your comparisons -- and the secret sauce is all about getting as good an understanding of the prospective audience and their viewing patterns, and gauging expectations based off other movies with similar patterns. And, of course, the caveat is that online ticket sales are still only a small percentage of total sales.

[nomyth]

I know on Thursday, we had said the "safe" range for predictions was 36-41M. It came in on the lowest side of that, but most people were close enough.

 

My prediction for Friday was close to 15M but I thought that would be good for a 38-39M weekend. It had the third worst Saturday boost of the year. That was just a tough call to make.

 

With that said, ticket sales are an incredibly useful source for making predictions. Naturally, there will always be those who greatly misinterpret that data. That doesn't make the data useless.

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, Tele Came Back said:

Presales are interesting and helpful but when you use them to predict, your predictions will only be as good as your comparisons -- and the secret sauce is all about getting as good an understanding of the prospective audience and their viewing patterns, and gauging expectations based off other movies with similar patterns. And, of course, the caveat is that online ticket sales are still only a small percentage of total sales.

 

I would be curious what percentage of franchise first weekend total sales they are (if we are purely talking about predicting first weekend from them), if online sales are now 13% of the annual sales(I'm going from memory here), they must be a significant percentage of movies first weekend sales (like 20+%).

 

It is not China market were they tell almost everything, but still a solid ground as long as the reader of them like you said does not compare a Marvel movie to going in style without taking into account audience buying habit.

[nomyth]

And on the topic of presales, POTC just popped up at #3 on pulse.

[The Panda]

Pirates has been popping off and on pulse the last week or so, it's looking like it should have a stronger opening then a lot of people are thinking.

 

90-110m range wouldn't surprise me.

[HesAPooka]

3 hours ago, The Panda of the Caribbean said:

Pirates has been popping off and on pulse the last week or so, it's looking like it should have a stronger opening then a lot of people are thinking wanting.

 

90-110m range wouldn't surprise me.