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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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47 minutes ago, MattW said:

So by all measures it's tracking higher than force awakens, but no one is willing to assign it a higher number than force awakens (which is wise IMO, I'd bet on it opening lower as well). The nuts and bolts are interesting, when the numbers get bigger the uncertainty is higher as well.

Yeah I find it striking that it's tracking higher than TFA in these measures. Thinking I'm gonna raise my predict to $225M OW.

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7 hours ago, MattW said:

So by all measures it's tracking higher than force awakens, but no one is willing to assign it a higher number than force awakens (which is wise IMO, I'd bet on it opening lower as well). The nuts and bolts are interesting, when the numbers get bigger the uncertainty is higher as well.

Exactly. It honestly really annoys me because the idiotic other sites besides Deadline / Hollywood Reporter / Variety report things (Google The Last Jedi box office tracking) like Last Jedi definitely will fall from TFA, or it’s official TLJ can’t match predecessor. Huh?!? The tracking said NOTHING of the kind. It was above TFA in every metric but one. By all means you wouldn’t be wrong to conclude it’s on track for a $250 million Opening. But the reality is nobody goes into a baseball season saying, “Yankees won’t just win this year, they will set the new record for regular season wins at 118.” No, you’d look like an idiot to say that. You’re better off just predicting they’ll be a very good team and saying how good depends on a few factors yet to be determined. Same with tracking. The tracking said above $200M. How much above is anyone’s guess. Nobody will know until it happens.

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12 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

After topping out at 27.8% Friday morning, Coco slowly inching down on MT...current rates...

25.5% Coco
17.8% Justice League
15.1% Wonder
8% Thor: Ragnarok
7% Murder on the Orient Express

Why would it go down?

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23 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said:

Why would it go down?

Ummm, it's getting less a percent of ticket buyers than its 1st opening days:)...

 

I mean JL is also inching down, so Coco isn't the only one:)...I know some of the other holdovers had great Fridays, better than those 2 movies, so this helps show that wasn't a surprise...

 

EDIT: I mean this is the next hour update...they are still inching down

25.2% Coco
17.7% Justice League
15% Wonder
8.2% Thor: Ragnarok
6.9% Murder on the Orient Express

 

Seems Thor is still doing really well, and it may be some of the non-listed movies (like Daddy's Home and The Star) are also doing pretty well at pulling viewers from the overall market of buyers:)...

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How my theatre is looking for TLJ on preview night, Thursday, December 14.

 

Cineplex Scotiabank Theatre Chinook 

Calgary, AB 

 

Star Wars: The Force Awakens/The Last Jedi double feature - IMAX

3:30PM | 275 seats | 75% full 

 

Star Wars: The Last Jedi opening night fan event - UltraAVX

6:00PM | 407 seats | 79% full

 

Star Wars: The Last Jedi - AVX 3D DOLBY ATMOS

8:15PM | 395 seats | 85% full

11:40PM | 395 seats | 60% full

 

Star Wars: The Last Jedi - UltraAVX 3D

9:30PM | 407 seats | 76% full

 

Star Wars: The Last Jedi - IMAX 3D

10:00PM | 275 seats | 97% full

 

 

The majority of seats remaining in all shows are very front row seats and reserved seating for people in wheelchairs anď their companions. In the 10:00 IMAX show, the only 8 seats left are wheelchair seats and companion seats. Needless to say, decent seats in all shows are long taken.

 

 

 

 

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My Cinemark local is giving Star Wars 3 screens (for now) for Fri-Sun, but they have also already put up 5 7pm shows and 6 10pmish shows for opening Thursday...so if nothing else, holdover movies that Thursday are gonna crash b/c usually they add more shows the week and day before...and it's already got 5 and 6 screens out of 12 that Thursday (without counting what Ferdinand might get)...

 

My Regal local is giving Star Wars 2 screens (for now) for Fri-Sun, but they have also given more to Thursday - 2 screens for 7pm, but 4 for 10pmish shows...as these undoubtedly grow, I'll post...

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