The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Duncan]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Lol jesus those are horrible sales for hunter killer. Bohemian rhapsody finna break out though. MY CLUB WILL WIN

My theater just put Hunter Killer in the second-largest screen, and I'm mystified as to why.

[filmlover]

I keep forgetting Hunter Killer is even coming out. I feel like video stores would have an entire section devoted to forgotten Gerard Butler flops if those still existed.

[filmlover]

Hunter Killer isn't even getting one of the biggest auditoriums here which is a pretty ominous sign for a new release. Mid90s is actually getting put in one of the biggest auditoriums (the other openers here are Johnny English and Beautiful Boy).

[WrathOfHan]

2 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

My theater just put Hunter Killer in the second-largest screen, and I'm mystified as to why.

It was scheduled to be in the biggest auditorium at my theater, but it's been downgraded to an average one. Halloween has the two biggest auditoriums during the weekend (may be different during the weekend)

 

BTW, Hell Fest is returning to my theater for one showing a day  We're not getting Indivisible, so that tells you how much it'll flop given my theater has good luck with Christian films

Edited October 23, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

I just checked the auditoriums at my theater and Hunter Killer is actually getting one of the smallest theaters. That's pretty deadly for a new release. Sub-$5M doesn't look impossible.

[dxmatrixdt]

9 hours ago, filmlover said:

Coco is coming back to a few theaters around me this weekend for day shows, I'm guessing to capitalize on the Day of the Dead.

and possibly one of the reasons being... It could be for charity for people with grieving problems

Edited October 23, 2018 by gravestonedt

[WrathOfHan]

On 10/16/2018 at 6:43 PM, WrathOfHan said:

The House with a Clock in Its Walls is gone.

 

Halloween: 14 (XL x2 and Average)

The Hate U Give: 5 (Average)

The Sisters Brothers: 5 (Average)

 

First Man: 5 (Down 5; Smallest)

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween: 5 (Down 3; Average)

Smallfoot: 5 (Flat; Smallest)

A Star Is Born: 5 (Down 3; Biggest)

Venom: 5 (Down 7; Biggest)

Bad Times at the El Royale: 4 (Down 1; Smallest)

Night School: 4 (Down 1; Smallest)

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:

  Hide contents

 

XL: 300 (two screens are this size)

Biggest: 130 (two screens are this size)

Average: 100 (four screens are this size; one has five extra seats)

Smallest: 47 (four screens are this size)

 

 

Bad Times at the El Royale, First Man, and The Sisters Brothers are gone.

 

Hunter Killer: 10 (XL and Average)

Indivisible: 5 (Average)

The Old Man and the Gun: 5 (Smallest)

 

Halloween: 10 (Down 4; XL and Average)

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween: 5 (Flat; Smallest)

The Hate U Give: 5 (Flat; Average)

Smallfoot: 5 (Flat; Smallest)

A Star Is Born: 5 (Flat; Biggest)

Venom: 5 (Flat; Biggest)

Night School: 4 (Flat; Smallest)

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:

Spoiler

 

XL: 300 (two screens are this size)

Biggest: 130 (two screens are this size)

Average: 100 (four screens are this size; one has five extra seats)

Smallest: 47 (four screens are this size)

 

 

Edited October 23, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[DAJK]

What is Hunter Killer's budget? Could see if being a fun dopey Netflix watch if it's got a budget similar to Geostorm of Gods of Egypt (which would be a DISASTER but fun as hell). 

[DAJK]

Shiiiiiiit Halloween is taking IMAX away from First Man 

[dxmatrixdt]

Bohemian Rhapsody getting lukewarm reviews. 

Possibly looking at Walk the Line, MJ-This is It, & All Eyez on Me #s of 25-mill opening weekend

Halloween could get 33 this week setting up a potential 20 million 3rd weekend.  

If everyone ignores Nutcracker, #1 possible 3-way race

[WrathOfHan]

On 10/16/2018 at 9:37 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Cinderella (2015), Colette, and A Simple Favor are gone.

 

Halloween: 9 (Biggest and Average)

The Hate U Give: 4 (Average)

The Sisters Brothers: 4 (Smallest)

 

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween: 5 (Up 1; 2nd Smallest)

Bad Times at the El Royale: 4 (Flat; Average x0.5 and 3rd Smallest x0.5)

First Man: 4 (Down 2; Average)

The House with a Clock in Its Walls: 4 (Flat; 4th Smallest)

Night School: 4 (Flat; Average)

Smallfoot: 4 (Flat; Average x0.5 and 3rd Smallest x0.5)

A Star Is Born: 4 (Flat; 2nd Biggest)

Venom: 4 (Down 4 and lost 3D; Average)

 

During the weekend, the biggest auditorium is split between Halloween and ASIB while the second biggest auditorium is split between Goosebumps and First Man. Halloween steals shows from The Sisters Brothers, Smallfoot, Night School, and House with a Clock.

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:  

  Hide contents

 

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats



 

 

The House with a Clock in Its Walls and The Sisters Brothers are gone.

 

Hocus Pocus: 4 (Average)

Hunter Killer: 4 (Average)

Hell Fest: 2 (Return; Average x0.5)

 

Halloween: 8 (Down 1; Biggest and Average)

Bad Times at the El Royale: 4 (Flat; 4th Smallest)

First Man: 4 (Flat; 2nd Smallest) 

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween: 4 (Flat; Average)

The Hate U Give: 4 (Flat; 3rd Smallest)

Night School: 4 (Flat; Smallest)

A Star Is Born: 4 (Flat; 2nd Biggest)

Venom: 4 (Flat; Average)

Smallfoot: 2 (Down 2; Average x0.5)

 

Halloween has the two biggest auditoriums during the weekend and takes most shows away from El Royale.

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:  

Spoiler

 

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats



 

 

Edited October 23, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[Valonqar]

2 hours ago, gravestonedt said:

Bohemian Rhapsody getting lukewarm reviews. 

Possibly looking at Walk the Line, MJ-This is It, & All Eyez on Me #s of 25-mill opening weekend

Halloween could get 33 this week setting up a potential 20 million 3rd weekend.  

If everyone ignores Nutcracker, #1 possible 3-way race

what's the tracking for Nutcracker? It seems like it's a forgone conclusion it'll bomb but I'm curious about numbers.

[DAJK]

Halloween's drop ain't gonna be pretty after the 31st. No way is it in contention for #1 that weekend. 

[WrathOfHan]

Bohemian Rhapsody is locked for #1 next weekend. The reviews aren't strong, but borderline fresh on RT isn't bad by any stretch.

[dxmatrixdt]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

what's the tracking for Nutcracker? It seems like it's a forgone conclusion it'll bomb but I'm curious about numbers.

probably something like 18-36 opening weekend.  it could be anticipated to be a movie that flies over everyone's head and no one goes out to see it.  

Christopher Robin did 25 and Wrinkle in Time did 33.  

The Grinch opens on its second weekend, Fantastic Beasts on its third weekend, and Wreck-it-Ralph on its fourth weekend.  

Santa Clause 2 and 3 were still playing heavily over T-break, I don't think one will be expecting to see Nutcracker there.  Nutcracker has no reviews, no IMDB ratings, but it should outsell Bohemian Rhapsody and Halloween's third weekend if cinemagoers are deprived and the weather is in order.  Nutcracker looks like it has lollipop-land written all over it, but it also looks like a stage play...  no production budget listings yet.

Edited October 24, 2018 by gravestonedt

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

what's the tracking for Nutcracker? It seems like it's a forgone conclusion it'll bomb but I'm curious about numbers.

$23-26M according to Variety last week.

[Porthos]

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 Days and counting

[Includes Limited Showings for Tuesday]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	94	12173	13377	9.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:       48 

 

.1973x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after eight days of pre-sales.

.1769x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 23 days before release. (IW had 11 more days of pre-sales)

.6124x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 22 days before release (BP had 8 more days of pre-sales) [I do not have info for the first ten days of pre-sales for BP]

.7033x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 21 days before release (DP2 had 29 days* of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

[I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for DP2]

.3643x as many tickets sold as Solo after eight days of pre-sales (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

.8925x as many tickets sold as JW:FK after eight days of pre-sales (JW:FK had 22 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

* Like FB2, some theaters also had seats on sale early for DP2 for a couple of days.

 

[Sometime in the next few days or so, "X days before the release" will be the comp for all movies]

 

===

 

Tue/Thr Breakdown:

 

Tuesday Night Limited Engagement Seat Report: T-23 Days and counting:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	6	957	1399	32.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                        6

 

Thursday Night Seat Report: T-23 Days and counting:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	88	11264	11978	6.31%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      42

[Eric Duncan]

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinke In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
Halloween	9,563	12,890	21,600	36,126
The Hate U Give (2K expansion)	1,026	1,542	1,559	2,055
Hunter Killer	91	368
Indivisible	33	89
*4pm-12am

 

 

Movie/Day	Monday	Tuesday
Bohemian	1035	1049
Nutcracker	191	204
Nobodys Fool	39	46
The Grinch	153	192
Overlord	18	15
Fantastic Beasts	1018	769
Instant Family	0	4
Green Book	0	1

[Valonqar]

@gravestonedt @filmlover Thanks for Nutcracker numbers! Not as bad as I expected. Maybe Disney will be able to fudge its way to 100M given holiday season. should keel over OS though. 

[WrathOfHan]

Bohemian Rhapsody is selling pretty close to A Star Is Born. If it doesn’t hit 40M, it’ll be right under that mark

Edited October 24, 2018 by WrathOfHan