Jump to content

grim22

The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

Recommended Posts

I don't think $175 million total for Aquaman is very realistic considering the recent history of comic book movies. Of all 28 live action movies based on Marvel and DC heroes released in the last 5 years only 3 missed 180m. One of them is Fantastic Four, the other two are X-Men Apocalypse ($163m adjusted) and The Wolverine ($154m adjusted). I know Justice League was awful but I don't think the DC brand is that damaged. 

 

Not to mention the $45m opening weekend prediction. This same weekend in the past few years always had movies opening between $35-40 million adjusted and Aquaman with such a build in audience will only do $45m? Tron Legacy 2010 opened to $50m adjusted and Sherlock Holmes in 2009 to $75m. I'm sorry that prediction is not very realistic. Even Venom is doing over $210m with Suicide Squad-level reviews and smear campaign.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites



2 hours ago, Napoleon said:

I don't think $175 million total for Aquaman is very realistic considering the recent history of comic book movies. Of all 28 live action movies based on Marvel and DC heroes released in the last 5 years only 3 missed 180m. One of them is Fantastic Four, the other two are X-Men Apocalypse ($163m adjusted) and The Wolverine ($154m adjusted). I know Justice League was awful but I don't think the DC brand is that damaged. 

 

Not to mention the $45m opening weekend prediction. This same weekend in the past few years always had movies opening between $35-40 million adjusted and Aquaman with such a build in audience will only do $45m? Tron Legacy 2010 opened to $50m adjusted and Sherlock Holmes in 2009 to $75m. I'm sorry that prediction is not very realistic. Even Venom is doing over $210m with Suicide Squad-level reviews and smear campaign.

I think if it's at all good, it's got a good chance at $300M over Christmas...I see Aquaman and Mary Poppins doing the 1-2 punch like TLJ/Jumanji last year with the other movies getting some of the extra slack that exists when you don't have a $600M movie, but $300M ones - yeah, I'll go there - if these movies are both good (quality is important), I think they are gonna do very well this holiday and be the "top tier"...

Edited by TwoMisfits
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



3 hours ago, Napoleon said:

I don't think $175 million total for Aquaman is very realistic considering the recent history of comic book movies. Of all 28 live action movies based on Marvel and DC heroes released in the last 5 years only 3 missed 180m. One of them is Fantastic Four, the other two are X-Men Apocalypse ($163m adjusted) and The Wolverine ($154m adjusted). I know Justice League was awful but I don't think the DC brand is that damaged. 

 

Not to mention the $45m opening weekend prediction. This same weekend in the past few years always had movies opening between $35-40 million adjusted and Aquaman with such a build in audience will only do $45m? Tron Legacy 2010 opened to $50m adjusted and Sherlock Holmes in 2009 to $75m. I'm sorry that prediction is not very realistic. Even Venom is doing over $210m with Suicide Squad-level reviews and smear campaign.

Tron: Legacy opened the week before Christmas and Sherlock Holmes actually opened on Christmas Day itself (which landed on a Friday). If Aquaman opened to $45M it would still be able to do $200M. Keep in mind this is the first comic book movie to open around Christmas since the genre was reinvigorated by X-Men in 2000.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 Days and counting

[Includes Limited Showings for Tuesday]

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

94

12011

13377

10.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:       44 

 

.2169x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after twelve days of pre-sales.

.1903x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 19 days before release. (IW had 11 more days of pre-sales)

[Missing Data for Black Panther for the equivalent pre-sale date]

.7186x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 19 days before release (DP2 had 29 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

.3865x as many tickets sold as Solo after twelve days of pre-sales (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

.8506x as many tickets sold as JW:FK after twelve days of pre-sales (JW:FK had 22 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

 

[Starting tomorrow, "X days before the release" will be the comp for all movies]

 

===

 

Tue/Thr Breakdown:

 

Tuesday Night Limited Engagement Seat Report: T-19 Days and counting:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

6

919

1399

34.31%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      13

 

Thursday Night Seat Report: T-19 Days and counting:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

88

11092

11978

7.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      31

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites





I think the goal for this weekend should be the openers combining for 75M, anything lower than that and I'd consider it a disappointment (let's say 35 for BR, 25 for Nutcracker, 15 for Nobody's Fool). 

 

Optimistic goal should be 80-85 but I wouldn't be disappointed if it wound up in the high 70's

Link to comment
Share on other sites



Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 Days and counting

[Includes Limited Showings for Tuesday]

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

94

11963

13377

10.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:       48 

 

.1950x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 18 days before release. (IW had 11 more days of pre-sales)

.6468x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 18 days before release (BP had 8 more days of pre-sales) 

.7127x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 18 days before release (DP2 had 29 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

.4854x as many tickets sold as Solo 18 days before release (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

1.3403x as many tickets sold as JW:FK 18 days before release (JW:FK had 22 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

 

[Starting today, "X days before the release" is the comp for all movies regardless of how many days of pre-sales there were]

 

===

 

Tue/Thr Breakdown:

 

Tuesday Night Limited Engagement Seat Report: T-18 Days and counting:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

6

915

1399

34.60%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                        4

 

Thursday Night Seat Report: T-18 Days and counting:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

88

11048

11978

7.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      44

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 Days and counting

[Includes Limited Showings for Tuesday]

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

94

11963

13377

10.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:       48 

 

.1950x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 18 days before release. (IW had 11 more days of pre-sales)

.6468x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 18 days before release (BP had 8 more days of pre-sales) 

.7127x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 18 days before release (DP2 had 29 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

.4854x as many tickets sold as Solo 18 days before release (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

1.3403x as many tickets sold as JW:FK 18 days before release (JW:FK had 22 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

 

[Starting today, "X days before the release" is the comp for all movies regardless of how many days of pre-sales there were]

 

===

 

Tue/Thr Breakdown:

 

Tuesday Night Limited Engagement Seat Report: T-18 Days and counting:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

6

915

1399

34.60%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                        4

 

Thursday Night Seat Report: T-18 Days and counting:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

88

11048

11978

7.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      44

I really am not an expert on this stuff but seems to me that those comparisons should put it in place for a bigger preview number than the first. But then again I don't know how frontloaded it should be....

Link to comment
Share on other sites



3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Pulse:

 

1. Bohemian Rhapsody

2. Halloween

3. A Star is Born

4. The Nutcracker

5. The Hate U Give

 

BAH GAWD

Nutcracker is selling really well around me for the weekend. Would be really surprised if it did less than the mid-$20M tracking range it's projected for.

Link to comment
Share on other sites









29 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

MY CLUB WILL LIVE TO SEE ANOTHER DAY

I was about to say that :rofl: Well, we don't know, but a family movie like that popping on Pulse in what should be the morning or early afternoon of Monday for Americans is an impressive sign. Might hit 30M+ for the opening with some luck (and Rhapsody could hit 40+).

 

Damn, Disney bout to make history. Even though they had two gigantic bombs (Solo and AWIT), I think a year with nothing but 100M+ DOM movies is unprecedented.

Link to comment
Share on other sites







14 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

i'm joining Nucracker over 30M club but BR goes over 40M for sure. 

If that were to happen I wonder what would be considered an underperformance for The Grinch next week. FWIW I have that movie pegged for a $45-50M opening right now but wouldn't be surprised if it underperformed (especially if Nutcracker overperforms).

Link to comment
Share on other sites



Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.