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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Pulse 9:35-9:50 EST:
Bohemian Rhapsody: 142/15 minutes - Halloween had 158 sold tickets same day and almost (minimal to the disfavor of Halloween) same time of the day
Nutcracker: 37/15
Nobody's Fool: 30/15 - not bad

The Grinch: 4/15
Fantastic Beasts 2: 10/15
Creed II: 2/15

And Pulse 10:50-11:04 EST:
BR: 201/15 minutes
Nutcracker: 44/15 – a bit slow today (or maybe on Halloween people aren't in the right mood for that film), still in front of e.g. Goosebumps 2 with 35 tickets same day and time of the day
NF: 27/15

Grinch: 10/15
FB 2: 15/15
Girl in the Spider's Web: 2/15
Creed II: 1/15

Edited by el sid
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Overlord really isn't made for the GA. It's for a small niche audience who may or may not bother to catch it in theaters. It could be great but it's clearly not going to be what you'd call a hit.

 

3 hours ago, Poseidon said:

Overlord, Robin Hood and Spider's Web will be the big losers of November due to way too many movies. 

 

Robin Hood would still be a big loser even if it was the only movie coming out all month long.

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Updated by @akvalley: 2018-10-31 20:57:35 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-10-31 20:00:00	772	Halloween (2018)
2018-10-31 20:00:00	583	Bohemian Rhapsody
2018-10-31 20:00:00	145	A Star Is Born (2018)
2018-10-31 20:00:00	99	Venom (2018)
2018-10-31 20:00:00	97	The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
2018-10-31 20:00:00	71	Bohemian Rhapsody The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-10-31 20:00:00	58	Mid90s
2018-10-31 20:00:00	53	Nobodys Fool
2018-10-31 20:00:00	53	Hunter Killer (2018)
2018-10-31 20:00:00	40	Goosebumps 2 Haunted Halloween
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8 hours ago, Poseidon said:

Overlord, Robin Hood and Spider's Web will be the big losers of November due to way too many movies. 

I don't think Spider's Web will be a BIG loser. I don't know and don't think that it'll make a profit or make enough to get a sequel, but with the budget being under $45 million, it should be able to at least double its budget overall. I imagine overseas might help, and I think it should AT LEAST hit $40m domestically. Robin Hood and Overlord on the other hand..... nah.

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Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 Days and counting

[Includes Limited Showings for Tuesday]

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

94

11831

13377

11.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:      48 

 

.2057x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 15 days before release. (IW had 11 more days of pre-sales)

.6006x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 15 days before release (BP had 8 more days of pre-sales) 

.6644x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 15 days before release (DP2 had 29 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

.4892x as many tickets sold as Solo 15 days before release (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

1.1460x as many tickets sold as JW:FK 156 days before release (JW:FK had 22 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

 

===

 

Tue/Thr Breakdown:

 

Tuesday Night Limited Engagement Seat Report: T-15 Days and counting:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

6

891

1399

36.31%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      11

 

Thursday Night Seat Report: T-15 Days and counting:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

88

10940

11978

8.67%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      37

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27 minutes ago, Porthos said:

.2057x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 15 days before release. (IW had 11 more days of pre-sales)

.6006x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 15 days before release (BP had 8 more days of pre-sales) 

.6644x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 15 days before release (DP2 had 29 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

.4892x as many tickets sold as Solo 15 days before release (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

1.1460x as many tickets sold as JW:FK 156 days before release (JW:FK had 22 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

$39M x 0.2057 = $8.02M

$25.2M x 0.6006 = $15.13M

$18.6M x 0.6644 = $12.36M

$14.1M x 0.4892 = $6.9M

$15.3M x 1.1460 = $17.53M

 

These five avarage to $11.99M, with Tuesday's screenings making 32.9% of that figure, or $3.94M (though I'd consider it part of the regular previews, as anyone who'll see it on Tuesday wouldv'e seen it on opening night regardless). For reference, the first one earned $8.75M in its previews. 

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1 hour ago, TomeRide said:

$39M x 0.2057 = $8.02M

$25.2M x 0.6006 = $15.13M

$18.6M x 0.6644 = $12.36M

$14.1M x 0.4892 = $6.9M

$15.3M x 1.1460 = $17.53M

 

These five avarage to $11.99M, with Tuesday's screenings making 32.9% of that figure, or $3.94M (though I'd consider it part of the regular previews, as anyone who'll see it on Tuesday wouldv'e seen it on opening night regardless). For reference, the first one earned $8.75M in its previews. 

It's a little dangerous to do comps right now, due to the wide disparity of release patterns.  For instance, BP already had its World Premiere by this point.  Other films weren't out as nearly long, so FB2 had more presale days.

 

I do think that I am a TINY, and I do mean tiny, bit more confident of it doing 10m+ on Thur previews (including Tue limited) than I was a couple of weeks ago.

 

Mostly because while the ticket-per-day pace is the lowest of all the movies I've tracked this far out after the initial rush of sales, it's still enough that it should have a nice base when the presales take off just before release.  

 

If they do. 

 

As an example, one of the warning signs for Solo was its dogshit M/T/W/Th presales the week of release.  And it gives me no joy to say that as a diehard SW fan.  That was on top of the flat per-day sales leading into its last week of presales.

 

FB2 has been doing about 45 tickets per day the last 12 days or so.  At that clip, that means it'll fall behind JW2 in about 6 days or so.  Unless numbers pick up when the first fan screening start filtering out of course.

 

OTOH, I was really afraid that FB2 might fall flat on its face after a couple of the days I tracked.  But I did some back of the envelope calculations and it should be past where AM&TW was when it entered the week of release.  Maybe even past it.  For reference, AM&TW (11.2m in previews) had sold 2,023 tickets locally three days before release.  I'm thinking FB2 has a decent chance to beat that as it currently sits at 1,546.  Likewise, Venom (10m) had 2,258 tickets sold locally two days before release. 

 

Of course both AM&TW and Venom went nuts on the day of release (1,967 and 1,737 sold respectively at stop of tracking), so there's still a danger that FB2 won't copy their success.  Solo (902) certainly didn't, for instance. 

 

If FB2 pulls a Solo the week of release, I doubt very seriously that it will sniff 10m in previews.

 

So the next thing I want to see is how much tickets will bump up, again IF they do, once the World Premiere happens.  Then I'll want to see how much the ticket per day goes up in the M/T/W leading into release.

 

Still, not gonna lie, the tickets-per-day IS worrying.  Enough so that I think sub-10m preview is very much in the cards. I should have a much better feel if this will squeak by 10m or not once the World Premiere occurs and what sort of bounce it gets from that.

Edited by Porthos
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Fandango App Monday Tues Wed Thursday
         
A Wrinke In Time   4,864   15,601
A Quiet Place 2,177 4,003 10,665  
Blockers  504 1,106 2,931  
Rampage 705 1,508 4,109  
Truth Or Dare 385 760 2,133  
Super Troopers 2,825 3,447 6,881  
I Feel Pretty 871 1,610 4,423  
Avengers: Infinity War 49,836 54,892 68,826 206,000
Overboard 84 409 1,044  
Breaking In 727 1204 2,899  
Life Of The Party 587 1,310 3,010  
Deadpool 2 23,134 28,896 41,212  
Show Dogs 6 128 369  
Book Club 836 1,599 3,283  
SW: Solo 13,688 15,855 28,533  
Action Point  17 48 197  
Upgrade  9 119 522  
Adrift 63 308 1,268  
Oceans 8 3,009 4,372 11,114  
Hereditary 659 1,178 3,181  
Hotel Artemis 26 166 520  
Incredibles 2 20,872 23,430 39,337  
Tag 314 660 1,448  
Jurassic World 2 9,310 12,761 23,266  
Sicario 2 788 1282 3,403  
Uncle Drew 274 473 1,201  
Antman & The Wasp  6,613 5,990 11,108  
Purge (Wed) 2,885 8,308    
Hotel Transylvania 3 1,753 2,674 6,605 14,754
Skyscraper 586 1,019 2,868 7,134
Mamma Mia 2 4,427 5,099 12,117 17,226
Equalizer 1,418 2,297 6,073 11,875
Unfriended   71 240 975
MI6   *3328 13,575 27,261
Teen Titans   *462 2,125 4,526
Christopher Robin 1,560 2,442 5,355 11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me 234 542 1,561 4,222
The Darkest Minds 130 244 579 1,777
Eighth Grade 494 508 720 936
Death of A Nation 148 194 375 1,239
The Meg 1,539 2,944 6,723 16,202
Slender Man 177 418 1,091 3,737
BlackkKlansman  432 682 1,934 5,017
Dog Days (Wed) 115 631 1,536 1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed) 3,651 5,742 20,173 20,102
Alpha 181 283 943 2,069
Mile 22 282 519 1,833 5,200
Happytime Murders 382 *488 1,954 5,602
A.X.L. 32 *60 310 911
Kin 21 141 263 741
Operation Finale (Wed) 415 2,083 4,879 3,915
Searching 303 588 1,194 2,862
The Nun 2,082 5,938 13,806 28,881
Peppermint  286 863 2,508 4,441
God Bless The Broken Road 6 33 152 282
Predator 1,295 2,476 4,545 13,063
A Simple Favor 564 2,126 4,410 10,381
White Boy Rick 136 567 1,458 4,587
Unbroken 2 88 180 360 659
House With Clocks 897 1469 3607 8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9 164 281 713 1,715
Life Itself 79 162 394 953
Assassination Nation   36 94 382
Night School 1,045 1,756 3,566  
Small Foot 734 1,261 2,448  
Hellfest 195 304 661  
Little Women   65 134  
Venom 13,602 13,818 20,867 31,569
A Star Is Born 9,115 11,383 22,641 21,501
First Man 654 909 3,610 7,586
Goosebumps 2 300 631 1,733 3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale 264 481 1,257 3,350
Halloween 9,563 12,980 21,600 36,126
The Hate U Give (2k expansion) 1,026 1,542 1,559 2,055
Hunter Killer 91 368 1,062 2,726
Indivisible 33 89 204 440
Bohemian Rhapsody 7,255 9,026 12,546  
The Nutcracker & the Four Realms 1,659 1,949 2,567  
Nobody's Fool 436 900 1,719  
*4pm-12am        
         
Nov 9th        
Grinch 437 461 535  
Girl In The Spider's Web 29 36 31  
Overlord 28 27 19  
         
Nov 16th        
Fantastic Beasts 2 1,299 949 1,025  

 

 

 

Nutcracker now looking at possibly missing $20m rather than hitting $30m.  Nobody's Fool is pacing at about half of School's Out.  Bohemian Rhapsody seems to be looking at mid $30s (ASIB had Wed shows so that skews things.  BR seems to have some as well but to the same extent)

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4 hours ago, Porthos said:

It's a little dangerous to do comps right now, due to the wide disparity of release patterns.  For instance, BP already had its World Premiere by this point.  Other films weren't out as nearly long, so FB2 had more presale days.

 

I do think that I am a TINY, and I do mean tiny, bit more confident of it doing 10m+ on Thur previews (including Tue limited) than I was a couple of weeks ago.

 

Mostly because while the ticket-per-day pace is the lowest of all the movies I've tracked this far out after the initial rush of sales, it's still enough that it should have a nice base when the presales take off just before release.  

 

If they do. 

 

As an example, one of the warning signs for Solo was its dogshit M/T/W/Th presales the week of release.  And it gives me no joy to say that as a diehard SW fan.  That was on top of the flat per-day sales leading into its last week of presales.

 

FB2 has been doing about 45 tickets per day the last 12 days or so.  At that clip, that means it'll fall behind JW2 in about 6 days or so.  Unless numbers pick up when the first fan screening start filtering out of course.

 

OTOH, I was really afraid that FB2 might fall flat on its face after a couple of the days I tracked.  But I did some back of the envelope calculations and it should be past where AM&TW was when it entered the week of release.  Maybe even past it.  For reference, AM&TW (11.2m in previews) had sold 2,023 tickets locally three days before release.  I'm thinking FB2 has a decent chance to beat that as it currently sits at 1,546.  Likewise, Venom (10m) had 2,258 tickets sold locally two days before release. 

 

Of course both AM&TW and Venom went nuts on the day of release (1,967 and 1,737 sold respectively at stop of tracking), so there's still a danger that FB2 won't copy their success.  Solo (902) certainly didn't, for instance. 

 

If FB2 pulls a Solo the week of release, I doubt very seriously that it will sniff 10m in previews.

 

So the next thing I want to see is how much tickets will bump up, again IF they do, once the World Premiere happens.  Then I'll want to see how much the ticket per day goes up in the M/T/W leading into release.

 

Still, not gonna lie, the tickets-per-day IS worrying.  Enough so that I think sub-10m preview is very much in the cards. I should have a much better feel if this will squeak by 10m or not once the World Premiere occurs and what sort of bounce it gets from that.

 

At this point I think sub $10m is far more likely than $10m+.    Great reviews could give a push to late but pre-sales and walk ups but the series has a strong core fan base that will buy earlier - closer to SW in that regard than JW or even AM&TW. 

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