The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

 

At this point I think sub $10m is far more likely than $10m+.    Great reviews could give a push to late but pre-sales and walk ups but the series has a strong core fan base that will buy earlier - closer to SW in that regard than JW or even AM&TW. 

Yeah, I mean if you put a gun to my head and forced me to pick sub-10m or 10m+, I'd go sub-10m.  Mostly because of the per-day pace.  That's why I said "tiny bit" in my post, after all.

 

But I keep looking at that Venom total (and to a lesser degree, AM&TW) and wondering. 

Still, the point of the buying pattern is a very good one. It's just...  Solo has been SUCH an outlier on things that I've been tracking, even if only for a couple of days, that I'm wary of pulling the trigger and saying that FB2 is repeating it, if on a smaller scale.  

 

But if the bounce from the World Premiere is muted/flat, then yeah I will be a lot more convinced of the sub-10m preview number.

[Stewart]

10 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Along with sellouts, I'll start doing the Tallahassee AMC's auditorium placements and showtimes (I'll scrap my other local theater considering I never do sellout reports there):

 

Bad Times at the El Royale, Free Solo, Hell Fest, London Fields, The Nun, Silencio, and The Sisters Brothers are gone.

 

Bohemian Rhapsody: 10 (IMAX, Dolby x0.4, and Biggest)

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms: 10 (Dolby x0.6, Biggest, and Smallest x0.5)

Nobody's Fool: 9 (Biggest x2)

Suspiria: 4 (Smallest)

The Happy Prince: 2 (Average x0.5)

 

Halloween: 7 (Average x1.5)

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween: 5 (Below Average)

Mid90s: 5 (Above Average)

Night School: 5 (Smallest)

The Old Man and the Gun: 5 (Smallest)

Smallfoot: 5 (Smallest)

Venom: 5 (Average)

The Hate U Give: 4 (Smallest)

Hunter Killer: 4 (Below Average)

Indivisible: 4 (Average)

A Star Is Born: 4 (Above Average)

Fahrenheit 11/9: 1 (Smallest x0.25)

First Man: 1 (Smallest x0.25)

 

During the weekend, The Nutcracker and Nobody's Fool gain extra shows at the expense of Smallfoot, Mid90s, Indivisible, and Goosebumps.

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:

  Reveal hidden contents

IMAX: 372 seats

Dolby: 236 seats

Biggest: 104-107 seats (4 auditoriums are this size)

Above Average: 77 seats (2 auditoriums are this size)

Average: 67-70 seats (4 auditoriums are this size)

Below Average: 51-54 seats (2 auditoriums are this size)

Smallest: 40 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

 

Congrats on your new local having IMAX and Dolby! 

[WrathOfHan]

11 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Congrats on your new local having IMAX and Dolby! 

I get to use A List on them too 🙏

[Stewart]

17 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I get to use A List on them too 🙏

So many advantages in moving!

 

IMAX, Dolby, A-List and you won't be the only under-30 in the cinema now!

[Valonqar]

3 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Also of note, Nutcracker's projections are now lowered to $20M. #ohnoes

but its RT is rising steadily. it's at 35% now, may reach 50% by tomorrow. 

Edited November 1, 2018 by Valonqar

[WrathOfHan]

56 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

So many advantages in moving!

 

IMAX, Dolby, A-List and you won't be the only under-30 in the cinema now!

[DAJK]

Honestly if Nutcracker is really this bad, I hope it bombs spectacularly for Disney. Pan 2.0 please. 

 

No disdain for any of the actors/directors etc. But Disney's got such a monopoly at this point and they don't have any likely bombs on the horizon so

[Napoleon]

5 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Honestly if Nutcracker is really this bad, I hope it bombs spectacularly for Disney. Pan 2.0 please. 

 

No disdain for any of the actors/directors etc. But Disney's got such a monopoly at this point and they don't have any likely bombs on the horizon so

What about Artemis Fowl

[DAJK]

Just now, Napoleon said:

What about Artemis Fowl

I really really like Branagh and I remember the books fondly from when I was young so I think it could do solid numbers (I'm cheering for it to at least). 

[filmlover]

16 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Honestly if Nutcracker is really this bad, I hope it bombs spectacularly for Disney. Pan 2.0 please. 

Honestly, if it weren't for the Disney brand, I think Pan numbers would be incoming. That said, it'll probably play more like Alice Through the Looking Glass.

[Eric Atreides]

19 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Honestly if Nutcracker is really this bad, I hope it bombs spectacularly for Disney. Pan 2.0 please. 

 

No disdain for any of the actors/directors etc. But Disney's got such a monopoly at this point and they don't have any likely bombs on the horizon so

My club tho

 

Also somebody’s forgetting about Maleficent 2

[DAJK]

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

My club tho

 

Also somebody’s forgetting about Maleficent 2

Maleficent 2 will do 150/500 at least. 

[YM!]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

My club tho

 

Also somebody’s forgetting about Maleficent 2

Maleficent 2 will be another Alice 2 maybe even less.

[FantasticBeasts]

Sure all the way for Nutcracker flopping. Disney is the worst big studio for sure. I can't remember their last good live action film...

[Eric Atreides]

Bohemian Rhapsody	528	1977	26.71%
Nobodys Fool	366	1326	27.60%
Nutcracker	106	1987	5.33%

 

Bohemian Rhapsody Comps:

200% of Orient Express (59.3M)

412% of Greatest Showman (36.3M)

316% of Pitch Perfect 3 (63M)

143% of Mamma Mia (50M)

97% of A Star is Born (41.9M)

 

ASIB feels like the safest comp to make. Regardless, it's already gunning to be a great success.

 

Nobody's Fool Comps:

77% of Acrimony (13.2M)

238% of Uncle Drew (36.2M)

85% of Night School (23.1M)

 

I wanna say the Night School one was more likely, but that also had Kevin Hart attached to it, so maybe NF do somewhere around Acrimony's comp and Night School's?

 

Nutcracker Comps:

145% of My Little Pony (12.9M)

30% of Coco (15.1M)

81% of Ferdinand (10.9M)

28% of Hotel Transylvania 3 (12.3M)

29% of Christopher Robin (7.3M)

46% of House w/ Clock (12.4M)

58% of Smallfoot (13.4M)

 

Welp, my club is fucked lmao

[WrathOfHan]

The first Nutcracker only sold 16 tickets at my theater  The next show (which is 3D) is selling a lot more, but I don't even think it'll make half of A Wrinkle in Time here. The first show in Tallahassee sold 22 tickets; obviously I don't have comps because this is my first night tracking the theater, but that doesn't seem too hot.

 

Something interesting to note for Tallahassee: Dolby is down for the night, so Bohemian Rhapsody's shows there were canned. Fortunately, IMAX and standard are picking up the pace quite nicely  

Edited November 1, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[WrathOfHan]

Local shows:

 

Bohemian Rhapsody: 47/78

Nobody's Fool: 16/78

 

The 8:00 BR was upped to the 2nd biggest auditorium, and it's selling a lot. Comps coming in an hour.

Nobody's Fool is at 55% of Acrimony (9.5M) and 75% of Boo 2! (15.9M). That isn't particularly strong for a Tyler Perry joint.

 

Tally:

 

Bohemian Rhapsody:

IMAX: 105/372

Standard: 72/104

 

Nobody's Fool: 43/107

Suspiria: 23/40

Edited November 1, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[WrathOfHan]

Final Bohemian Rhapsody sales at my theater:

 

7:00: 47/78

8:00: 50/113

Total: 97/191

 

Comps:

 

110% of A Star Is Born (47.2M)

110% of Mamma Mia 2 (38.5M)

140% of Orient Express (40.2M)

270% of The Post (52.4M)

 

If it does that ASIB comp, my club LIVES  

 

The Nutcracker:

 

6:00: 16/78

8:30 3D: 28/78

Total: 44/156

 

This is actually three tickets ahead of A Wrinkle in Time (I was looking at Friday comps earlier lol oops). Granted, WIT only had a single show vs Nutcracker's two.

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Final Bohemian Rhapsody sales at my theater:

 

7:00: 47/78

8:00: 50/113

Total: 97/191

 

Comps:

 

110% of A Star Is Born (47.2M)

110% of Mamma Mia 2 (38.5M)

140% of Orient Express (40.2M)

270% of The Post (52.4M)

 

If it does that ASIB comp, my club LIVES  

 

The Nutcracker:

 

6:00: 16/78

8:30 3D: 28/78

Total: 44/156

 

This is actually three tickets ahead of A Wrinkle in Time (I was looking at Friday comps earlier lol oops). Granted, WIT only had a single show vs Nutcracker's two.

But how is it compared to CR or the House Clock Wall thing?

 

[WrathOfHan]

39 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

But how is it compared to CR or the House Clock Wall thing?

 

It's 50% of CR (12.3M) and 90% of House (23.9M). The latter wasn't saved in my document so I had to dig back in the thread for it lol