The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Valonqar]

@lor15 and @MCKillswitch123 Ah, thanks! 

[Poseidon]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 Days and counting

[Includes Limited Showings for Tuesday]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	94	11388	13377	14.87%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:    112 

 

.2432x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 9 days before release. (IW had 11 more days of pre-sales)

.6066x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 9 days before release (BP had 8 more days of pre-sales) 

.6494x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 9 days before release (DP2 had 29 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

.5628x as many tickets sold as Solo 9 days before release (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

1.1206x as many tickets sold as JW:FK 9 days before release (JW:FK had 22 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

 

===

 

Tue/Thr Breakdown:

 

Tuesday Night Limited Engagement Seat Report: T-9 Days and counting:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	6	840	1399	39.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      20

 

Thursday Night Seat Report: T-9 Days and counting:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	88	10548	11978	11.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      92

 

FB is slowly, but steadily gaining ground on most of them and is holding pace with JW2, which was more of a backloaded sell as well. So far, so good. Could be looking way worse tbh. 

[Mojoguy]

Will Spider Web's boxoffice run be the biggest unintentional comedy of year along with Solo?

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Mojoguy said:

Will Spider Web's boxoffice run be the biggest unintentional comedy of year along with Solo?

It could make sub-$10M total and I doubt anyone would be moved enough to care tbh.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Poseidon said:

FB is slowly, but steadily gaining ground on most of them and is holding pace with JW2, which was more of a backloaded sell as well. So far, so good. Could be looking way worse tbh. 

Right now FB2 is seeing something akin to the review/premeire bump when movies first get their initial reaction on social media and elsewhere.

 

The interesting thing here is though, that it's from fan screenings and perhaps other limited showings (haven't fully kept up on EXACTLY what is going on).  As I understand it, the review embargo is lifting soon, and the world premiere is tomorrow.  So we'll see if this keeps up and/or how the ticket pace is impacted when more discussion comes out about the film.

 

On the other hand, as @TalismanRing will rightfully remind us, the presale buying pattern for a Harry Potter themed movie is different from a CBM one.  So how well it does in the immediate days leading before release remains to be seen.

 

Still, as you say, it does seem to be doing better than it might have. How much that actually matters when all is said and done is still an open question.

[MrGlass2]

20 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

On the other hand, as @TalismanRing will rightfully remind us, the presale buying pattern for a Harry Potter themed movie is different from a CBM one.  So how well it does in the immediate days leading before release remains to be seen.

FB isn't Harry Potter, you can only compare FB2 to the first one (but a bit more frontloaded probably).

[DAJK]

12 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinke In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
Halloween	9,563	12,980	21,600	36,126
The Hate U Give (2k expansion)	1,026	1,542	1,559	2,055
Hunter Killer	91	368	1,062	2,726
Indivisible	33	89	204	440
Bohemian Rhapsody	7,255	9,026	12,546	26,476
The Nutcracker & the Four Realms	1,659	1,949	2,567	5,518
Nobody's Fool	436	900	1,719	4,437
Grinch	3,580	4,860
Girl In The Spider's Web	286	691
Overlord	299	605
*4pm-12am
Nov 16th
Fantastic Beasts 2	2,854	2,577
Widows	29	31
Instant Family	23	37
Nov 21st
Creed II	218	220
Ralph 2	1,449	680

I'm always curious how strong the correlations are between these numbers and the actual weekend numbers. Grinch's sales suggest 50M should definitely happen IMO, it's almost twice Hotel Transylvania, but also neck-and-neck with Wrinkle in Time. 

[filmnerdjamie]

My feeling is Crimes of Grindelwald will be the lowest grosser (domestically) in the franchise. 

[KeepItU25071906]

11 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

My feeling is Crimes of Grindelwald will be the lowest grosser (domestically) in the franchise. 

yeap, his only 5th on Pulse today. All signs point on this...

[Poseidon]

16 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

My feeling is Crimes of Grindelwald will be the lowest grosser (domestically) in the franchise. 

Isn't this everyones guess? 

[KeepItU25071906]

4 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

Isn't this everyones guess? 

 no 

[James]

10 hours ago, Poseidon said:

Isn't this everyones guess? 

No way. 300m here we come.

[FantasticBeasts]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

Right now FB2 is seeing something akin to the review/premeire bump when movies first get their initial reaction on social media and elsewhere.

 

The interesting thing here is though, that it's from fan screenings and perhaps other limited showings (haven't fully kept up on EXACTLY what is going on).  As I understand it, the review embargo is lifting soon, and the world premiere is tomorrow.  So we'll see if this keeps up and/or how the ticket pace is impacted when more discussion comes out about the film.

 

On the other hand, as @TalismanRing will rightfully remind us, the presale buying pattern for a Harry Potter themed movie is different from a CBM one.  So how well it does in the immediate days leading before release remains to be seen.

 

Still, as you say, it does seem to be doing better than it might have. How much that actually matters when all is said and done is still an open question.

OTOH, the first movie did not perform like a Harry Potter film in any sort of way. It was absolutely backloaded, there was no fan rush.  I admit I don't know what it was doing on presales though.

[TalismanRing]

54 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

OTOH, the first movie did not perform like a Harry Potter film in any sort of way. It was absolutely backloaded, there was no fan rush.  I admit I don't know what it was doing on presales though.

Han Solo had smaller previews at $14.1m than any recent SW  and it was also significantly less front loaded over the weekend with it's 7.3 internal multi (even accounting for the MD boost). 

 

But it still had a stronger % of pre-buy than a comparable CBM let alone a late buy and walk up movie like JW2  ($15.3m in previews and a 9.7 internal multi)
 

FB had much lower preview numbers than any HP and a bigger internal multi but at 8.5 it had the same (or close) multi as CBM like Thor:R and GOTG2 which had far bigger previews ($14.5 & $17m).  The larger the preview usually the smaller the w/e internal.

 

Edited November 7, 2018 by TalismanRing

[Porthos]

The other minor complication around the margins for FB2 is that Regal looks to be enacting matinee pricing for the non-PLF 5pm shows, much like it did for Venom.  At least it is locally.  Even seen one for as late a showing as 5:40pm.  

 

Now Cinemark, again at least locally, isn't doing this.  And I don't have an AMC locally.  But if Regal is doing this nationwide, that will play a bit with the total.  On the one hand, it's less revenue per ticket.  On the other hand, it might entice people to go to a showing they might not otherwise go to.  On the third hand, it might just shift from a more expensive 6pm ticket to a cheaper 5pm one.

 

As it stands, the 5pm to 6pm showings aren't nearly as popular as the ones starting later.  Not as bad as a 2D -> 3D dropoff, but still noticeable.

 

Might start tracking the matinee showings on my spreadsheet (already track 2D/3D) if I think it's actually worth it.

[tonytr87]

4 hours ago, filmnerdjamie said:

My feeling is Crimes of Grindelwald will be the lowest grosser (domestically) in the franchise. 

 

I'm thinking just under 200 mil. But it's Thanksgiving so who knows. 

[dxmatrixdt]

The box office was pretty bad when Interstellar and Big Hero 6 opened following the 2014 depressing election where the Republicans impossibly took over.

Mon-Wed ratios were normal indicating no election hangover, but Thursday was not good and Interstellar did not break out.

There could be a similar situation this year with Wednesday being good, but Thursday previews slowly depreciating from Wednesday #1, and an overall subpar weekend.

Fantastic Beasts in 2016 opened to disappointing #s after Trump won, still too early to tell where November will land this time.

*Gone Girl did increase on Thursday though

Rank* Title Monday 11/3 Tuesday 11/4 Wednesday 11/5 Thursday 11/6 1 FURY (2014) Sony / Columbia 3,313 $835,167 -66.7% / $252 $60,992,074 / 18 $1,103,445 +32.1% / $333 $62,095,519 / 19 $852,441 -22.7% / $257 $62,947,960 / 20 $820,269 -3.8% / $248 $63,768,229 / 21 2 INTERSTELLAR Paramount 249 N/A N/A $1,350,209 -- / $5,423 $1,350,209 / 1 $801,244 -40.7% / $3,218 $2,151,453 / 2 3 NIGHTCRAWLER Open Road Films 2,766 $950,530 -63% / $344 $11,391,530 / 4 $1,235,750 +30% / $447 $12,627,280 / 5 $865,025 -30% / $313 $13,492,305 / 6 $752,572 -13% / $272 $14,244,877 / 7 4 GONE GIRL Fox 2,834 $696,332 -68.4% / $246 $136,978,838 / 32 $892,670 +28.2% / $315 $137,871,508 / 33 $723,567 -18.9% / $255 $138,595,075 / 34 $733,347 +1.4% / $259 $139,328,422 / 35 5 JOHN WICK Lionsgate/Summit 2,589 $767,466 -66.7% / $296 $28,300,636 / 11 $996,790 +29.9% / $385 $29,297,426 / 12 $738,984 -25.9% / $285 $30,036,410 / 13 $633,249 -14.3% / $245 $30,669,659 / 14 6 ST. VINCENT Weinstein Company 2,552 $567,907 -69.1% / $223 $19,569,234 / 25 $850,686 +49.8% / $333 $20,419,920 / 26 $601,996 -29.2% / $236 $21,021,916 / 27 $627,115 +4.2% / $246 $21,649,031 / 28 7 OUIJA Universal 2,899 $766,715 -66.7% / $264 $35,570,665 / 11 $871,120 +13.6% / $300 $36,441,785 / 12 $491,480 -43.6% / $170 $36,933,265 / 13 $521,820 +6.2% / $180 $37,455,085 / 14 8 ALEXANDER AND THE TERRIBLE, HORRIBLE, NO GOOD, VERY BAD DAY Buena Vista 2,896 $426,144 -79.3% / $147 $54,152,435 / 25 $943,849 +121.5% / $326 $55,096,284 / 26 $257,760 -72.7% / $89 $55,354,044 / 27 $359,286 +39.4% / $124 $55,713,330 / 28 9 THE BOOK OF LIFE (2014) Fox 2,794 $464,895 -84.3% / $166 $40,895,487 / 18 $864,904 +86% / $310 $41,760,391 / 19 $335,504 -61.2% / $120 $42,095,895 / 20 $319,030 -4.9% / $114 $42,414,925 / 21 10 THE JUDGE Warner Bros. 1,942 $274,017 -68.4% / $141 $39,787,945 / 25 $401,466 +46.5% / $207 $40,189,411 / 26 $312,709 -22.1% / $161 $40,502,120 / 27 $307,125 -1.8% / $158 $40,809,245 / 28 11 THE BEST OF ME Relativity 2,327 $283,034 -63.7% / $122 $22,177,717 / 18 $379,667 +34.1% / $163 $22,557,384 / 19 $250,785 -33.9% / $108 $22,808,169 / 20 $280,172 +11.7% / $120 $23,088,341 / 21

[dxmatrixdt]

Ouija looks to have shit a brick on Wednesday after the Tuesday/8 election

Rank* Title Monday 11/7 Tuesday 11/8 Wednesday 11/9 Thursday 11/10 1 DOCTOR STRANGE Buena Vista 3,882 $6,209,922 -70.6% / $1,600 $91,268,233 / 4 $7,658,060 +23.3% / $1,973 $98,926,293 / 5 $5,061,877 -33.9% / $1,304 $103,988,170 / 6 $5,993,999 +18.4% / $1,544 $109,982,169 / 7 2 TROLLS Fox 4,060 $2,501,324 -82.2% / $616 $49,082,466 / 4 $5,322,216 +112.8% / $1,311 $54,404,682 / 5 $1,738,586 -67.3% / $428 $56,143,268 / 6 $2,821,047 +62.3% / $695 $58,964,315 / 7 3 HACKSAW RIDGE Lionsgate 2,886 $1,451,498 -63.3% / $503 $16,642,256 / 4 $1,918,052 +32.1% / $665 $18,560,308 / 5 $1,346,938 -29.8% / $467 $19,907,246 / 6 $1,582,075 +17.5% / $548 $21,489,321 / 7 4 THE ACCOUNTANT Warner Bros. 2,688 $511,247 -65.7% / $190 $71,291,744 / 25 $670,105 +31.1% / $249 $71,961,849 / 26 $573,753 -14.4% / $213 $72,535,602 / 27 $620,153 +8.1% / $231 $73,155,755 / 28 5 INFERNO Sony / Columbia 3,576 $501,037 -67.6% / $140 $26,474,954 / 11 $745,140 +48.7% / $208 $27,220,094 / 12 $542,827 -27.2% / $152 $27,762,921 / 13 $569,094 +4.8% / $159 $28,332,015 / 14 6 JACK REACHER: NEVER GO BACK Paramount 3,079 $470,375 -65.5% / $153 $49,583,648 / 18 $684,531 +45.5% / $222 $50,268,179 / 19 $470,793 -31.2% / $153 $50,738,972 / 20 $522,739 +11% / $170 $51,261,711 / 21 7 BOO! A MADEA HALLOWEEN Lionsgate 2,234 $495,127 -74% / $222 $65,416,979 / 18 $696,961 +40.8% / $312 $66,113,940 / 19 $322,373 -53.7% / $144 $66,436,313 / 20 $421,766 +30.8% / $189 $66,858,079 / 21 8 THE GIRL ON THE TRAIN (2016) Universal 1,572 $235,640 -63.2% / $150 $70,883,580 / 32 $288,335 +22.4% / $183 $71,171,915 / 33 $257,975 -10.5% / $164 $71,429,890 / 34 $273,240 +5.9% / $174 $71,703,130 / 35 9 OUIJA: ORIGIN OF EVIL Universal 2,380 $335,550 -62.2% / $141 $31,594,565 / 18 $375,120 +11.8% / $158 $31,969,685 / 19 $232,985 -37.9% / $98 $32,202,670 / 20 $307,420 +31.9% / $129 $32,510,090 / 21 10 MISS PEREGRINE'S HOME FOR PECULIAR CHILDREN Fox 1,710 $134,009 -76.3% / $78 $83,418,627 / 39 $250,556 +87% / $147 $83,669,183 / 40 $121,770 -51.4% / $71 $83,790,953 / 41 $156,154 +28.2% / $91 $83,947,107 / 42 11 MOONLIGHT (2016) A24 83 $112,856 -66.1% / $1,360 $3,102,829 / 18 $78,746 -30.2% / $949 $3,181,575 / 19 $108,142 +37.3% / $1,303 $3,289,717 / 20 $127,943 +18.3% / $1,541 $3,417,660 / 21 12 KEEPING UP WITH THE JONESES Fox 1,064 $90,677 -59.7% / $85 $13,398,215 / 18 $126,037 +39% / $118 $13,524,252 / 19 $93,966 -25.4% / $88 $13,618,218 / 20 $108,360 +15.3% / $102 $13,726,578 / 21 - DEEPWATER HORIZON Lionsgate/Summit 783 $62,570 -65.6% / $80 $59,981,792 / 39 $77,293 +23.5% / $99 $60,059,085 / 40 $63,537 -17.8% / $81 $60,122,622 / 41 $67,665 +6.5% / $86 $60,190,287 / 42 - SULLY Warner Bros. 454 $44,837 -62.8% / $99 $123,331,377 / 60 $55,850 +24.6% / $123 $123,387,227 / 61 $50,096 -10.3% / $110 $123,437,323 / 62 $47,736 -4.7% / $105 $123,485,059 / 63 - STORKS Warner Bros. 1,155 $61,170 -81% / $53 $70,029,232 / 46 $134,103 +119.2% / $116 $70,163,335 / 47 $45,827 -65.8% / $40 $70,209,162 / 48 $66,572 +45.3% / $58 $70,275,734 / 49

[WrathOfHan]

Spider's Web Girls Night Out: 41/107

 

No comps bc it's Tallahassee and I just started tracking. I'll group these numbers in with full previews tomorrow

Edited November 8, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[dxmatrixdt]

Spider's Web not going to 3,200 theaters.  Who knew.  It could have lured 15M+ OW easily.

Overlord should win in the standings.

November 9	Theaters
The Grinch	4,140
Girl in the Spider's Web	2,400+
Overlord	2,850
Beautiful Boy (2018)	840