The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[YM!]

North Shore Cinema update 

——————————————————————

The Grinch

 

6:00 - 57/139

[WrathOfHan]

Local:

 

Overlord: 33/124

Spider's Web: 31/78

 

Overlord is running at 120% of Annihilation (13.3M) and 150% of Hereditary (20.4M). This is a VERY strong start.

Spider's Web is running around the level of stuff like Red Sparrow and Acrimony. I have no idea what a good comp for this is.

 

Tallahassee:

 

The Grinch:

6:30 3D: 7/67

7:00: 25/104

Running Total: 41/543

 

Overlord: 41/107

Spider's Web: 37/107

Beautiful Boy: 17/40

Can You Ever Forgive Me?: 6/40

 

Tallahassee is lining up with what I'm seeing locally: Overlord is pacing ahead of Spider's Web. Overlord is doing well with its standard and IMAX late shows, but only Spider's Web standard late show is selling horribly. Dolby looks a tiny bit better but not too great. I'll keep you guys posted

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Local:

 

Overlord: 33/124

Spider's Web: 31/78

 

Overlord is running at 120% of Annihilation (13.3M) and 150% of Hereditary (20.4M). This is a VERY strong start.

Spider's Web is running around the level of stuff like Red Sparrow and Acrimony. I have no idea what a good comp for this is.

 

Tallahassee:

 

The Grinch:

6:30 3D: 7/67

7:00: 25/104

Running Total: 41/543

 

Overlord: 41/107

Spider's Web: 37/107

Beautiful Boy: 17/40

Can You Ever Forgive Me?: 6/40

 

Tallahassee is lining up with what I'm seeing locally: Overlord is pacing ahead of Spider's Web. Overlord is doing well with its standard and IMAX late shows, but only Spider's Web standard late show is selling horribly. Dolby looks a tiny bit better but not too great. I'll keep you guys posted

Maybe Peppermint as well as Sparrow

[WrathOfHan]

27 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Maybe Peppermint as well as Sparrow

Peppermint sold 28 tickets, so it's running slightly ahead of that. Wouldn't surprise me if both Spider's Web and Overlord do 12-13M (the former's TC is up above 2,900 again btw)

[DAJK]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Peppermint sold 28 tickets, so it's running slightly ahead of that. Wouldn't surprise me if both Spider's Web and Overlord do 12-13M (the former's TC is up above 2,900 again btw)

That would make for a solid weekend overall tbh. 85M or so for the openers

[WrathOfHan]

The Grinch update:

 

6:00 IMAX: 9/372

6:30 3D: 7/67

7:00: 25/104

7:45 Dolby: 22/236

Running Total: 63/779

 

It's close to beating The Nutcracker, but the remaining shows are an IMAX in 30 minutes that has sold nothing and two 3D shows that have sold two each. But again, this and my local theater seem to be underperforming, so we'll see what happens.

[YM!]

3 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

North Shore Cinema update 

——————————————————————

The Grinch

 

6:00 - 57/139

The Grinch 

 

6:00 - 57/139 

7:00 - 33/301 - UltraScreen DLX

8:15 - wasn’t able to find it in time  

9:15 - 9/301 - UltraScreen DLX

 

Yeah, I suspect Thursday previews will be weak for this.

Edited November 9, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord

[WrathOfHan]

Final Grinch sales in Tallahassee:

 

6:00 IMAX: 9/372

6:30 3D: 7/67

7:00: 25/104

7:45 Dolby: 22/236

8:15 IMAX: 0/372 (lmao)

8:30 3D: 1/67

9:00 3D: 2/40

Total: 66/1,258 (56 2D/10 3D)

 

So this came in right under The Nutcracker. Not great!

 

Beautiful Boy:

 

7:00: 17/40

9:55: 18/40

Total: 35/80

 

This is a little bit above Suspiria's 30 from last week. I imagine it has a 15-20% drop this weekend.

 

Can You Ever Forgive Me?:

 

7:00: 6/40

9:45: 4/40

Total: 10/80

 

This is a weak start, but it's also been a steady WOM player and not something that people would rush to see opening night.

 

I'll have Overlord and Spider's Web totals once the IMAX and Dolby shows start at 10:30.

[WrathOfHan]

Overlord:

 

7:00: 41/107

9:45: 19/107

10:30 IMAX: 19/372

Total: 79/586

 

Spider's Web:

 

7:00: 37/107

10:00: 4/107

10:30 Dolby: 14/236

Girls Night Out: 41/107

Total: 55/450 (96/557 with Girls Night Out)

[DAJK]

Victoria Update:

 

Grinch 7:00 - 29/161

 

That's just a hair above Bad Times a the fuckin El Royale. Not great Bob! 

Edited November 9, 2018 by DAJK

[a2k]

Thanks to all of you for sharing presales information!

 

Grinch numbers from what I glean don't look very healthy for such a well known property.

Mojo forecasts 62 while pro.BO is 69. 250 dom wouldn't be a sure thing even using the higher pro.BO number.

[Porthos]

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 Days and counting

[Includes Limited Showings for Tuesday]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	94	11165	13377	16.54%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:    123 

 

.2530x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 7 days before release. (IW had 11 more days of pre-sales)

.6090x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 7 days before release (BP had 8 more days of pre-sales) 

.6635x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 7 days before release (DP2 had 29 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

.5903x as many tickets sold as Solo 7 days before release (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

1.1110x as many tickets sold as JW:FK 7 days before release (JW:FK had 22 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

 

===

 

Tue/Thr Breakdown:

 

Tuesday Night Limited Engagement Seat Report: T-7 Days and counting:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	6	813	1399	41.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      15

 

Thursday Night Seat Report: T-7 Days and counting:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	88	10352	11978	13.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                    108

 

=========

 

T-7 Comps for other movies:

 

Black Panther:    178 tickets sold that day. 47.78% of all seats sold.

Infinity War:       359 tickets sold that day. 66.63% of all seats sold.

Deadpool 2:       119 tickets sold that day. 24.76% of all seats sold.

Solo:                  112 tickets sold that day. 36.93% of all seats sold.

Fallen Kingdom: 122 tickets sold that day. 17.68% of all seats sold.

[TomeRide]

17 minutes ago, Porthos said:

.2530x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 7 days before release. (IW had 11 more days of pre-sales)

.6090x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 7 days before release (BP had 8 more days of pre-sales) 

.6635x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 7 days before release (DP2 had 29 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

.5903x as many tickets sold as Solo 7 days before release (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

1.1110x as many tickets sold as JW:FK 7 days before release (JW:FK had 22 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

$39M x 0.2530 = $9.87M

$25.2M x 0.6090 = $15.35M

$18.6M x 0.6635 = $12.34M

$14.1M x 0.5903 = $8.32M

$15.3M x 1.111 = $17M

 

These five average to $12.58M, with Tuesday's screenings making 26.5% of that figure, or $3.33M (though I'd consider it part of the regular previews, as anyone who'll see it on Tuesday would've seen it on opening night regardless). For reference, the first one earned $8.75M in its previews. 

 

4 days ago it looked like this: 

Quote

$39M x 0.2251 = $8.79M

$25.2M x 0.5748 = $14.48M

$18.6M x 0.6311 = $11.74M

$14.1M x 0.5206 = $7.34M

$15.3M x 1.1034 = $16.88M

 

These five average to $11.85M, with Tuesday's screenings making 29.4% of that figure, or $3.48M.

It definitely looks like presales have picked up some steam these last few days, and the chances for $10M+ previews seem quite high at this point, but it remains to be seen how much of an impact the reviews will have during the final few days leading up to release. I'll probably make another follow up post in a couple of days. 

Edited November 9, 2018 by TomeRide
Punctuation mistake

[Porthos]

51 minutes ago, TomeRide said:

$39M x 0.2530 = $9.87M

$25.2M x 0.6090 = $15.35M

$18.6M x 0.6635 = $12.34M

$14.1M x 0.5903 = $8.32M

$15.3M x 1.111 = $17M

 

These five average to $12.58M, with Tuesday's screenings making 26.5% of that figure, or $3.33M (though I'd consider it part of the regular previews, as anyone who'll see it on Tuesday would've seen it on opening night regardless). For reference, the first one earned $8.75M in its previews. 

 

4 days ago it looked like this: 

It definitely looks like presales have picked up some steam these last few days, and the chances for $10M+ previews seem quite high at this point, but it remains to be seen how much of an impact the reviews will have during the final few days leading up to release. I'll probably make another follow up post in a couple of days. 

I hate to make a cop out and say, "I'll have a much greater idea on Sunday", because, like, duh.  Obviously.

 

But I will though.

 

What I want to see now is how it sells on Saturday and Sunday.  The two best comps I have that I actually tracked on Sat and Sun before the release are Solo and JW2 (AM&TW I started tracking Monday of release week and Venom Tuesday of release week).  Solo sold 240 tickets the weekend before release while JW2 finally started to pick up steam and sold 344 tickets.

 

That might not seem like a huge jump, but it's still a 43% increase over Solo and in retrospect was the first real sign that JW2 was indeed going to break out (JW2 had been pretty flat to that point, enough so that there was an open debate about where the hell its ticket sales were, along with an ever decreasing OW forecast - Whoops, as it turned out).  

 

If FB2 starts to falter, it could still very easily repeat Solo's flat sales leading into release.

 

That being said, it MIGHT not matter.  IF FB2 sells the EXACT number of tickets Solo did from now to release (which didn't exactly set the world on fire), it'll be about 250 or so tickets shy of Venom's final total when I stopped my tracking on Thur.  That in turn projects to a 9.45m preview number

 

So... We'll see.

Edited November 9, 2018 by Porthos

[el sid]

MT before the Friday update:

#1 The Grinch 37.5%
#2 BR 22.4%
#3 The Nutcracker 5.4%
#4 ASIB 4.7%
#5 Overlord 3.6% - Hunter Killer also entered the Top 5 to that time with 3.8% but had no Grinch as competition

[Eric Atreides]

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinke In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
Halloween	9,563	12,890	21,600	36,126
The Hate U Give (2K expansion)	1,026	1,542	1,559	2,055
Hunter Killer	91	368	1,062	2,726
Indivisible	33	89	204	440
Bohemian Rhapsody	7,255	9,026	12,546	26,476
Nutcracker	1,659	1,949	2,567	5,518
Nobody's Fool	436	900	1,719	4,437
The Grinch	3,580	4,860	10,092	17,046
Spider's Web	286	718	1,735	3,554
Overlord	299	604	1,599	4,522
*4pm-12am

 

Movie/Day	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
Fantastic Beasts	2,854	2,577	3,505	3,130
Instant Family	23	37	35	60
Widows	29	31	66	58
Ralph 2	1,449	680	604	467
Creed II	218	220	258	273
Robin Hood	46	18	22	29

[Valonqar]

My faith in Overlord is paying off. Bow now. 

Edited November 9, 2018 by Valonqar

[WrathOfHan]

Regal just sent me a free ticket that expires in a week. I haven't been to a Regal since Infinity War, so maybe they're trying to rope me back?

[75Live]

13 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Regal just sent me a free ticket that expires in a week. I haven't been to a Regal since Infinity War, so maybe they're trying to rope me back?

 

yeah that's usually a trick places do.  I've had restaurants and pizza places do that too.  I didn't order in say 2 or 3 months and I would get a coupon for a free pizza, or dessert or entree free(BOGO), just to entice me to come back

 

I never complained since I like free stuff 😛 

[DAJK]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Regal just sent me a free ticket that expires in a week. I haven't been to a Regal since Infinity War, so maybe they're trying to rope me back?

gosh, how dare they offer you free shit. Better not use it