The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Barnack]

14 minutes ago, DAJK said:

If Instant Family bombs I'll be super disappointed, given it seems like a shockingly endearing movie. 

 

Legit, I thought it would get trashed by critics. But if it turns out that it's actually pretty good from a concept/trailer that could have gone so, so wrong, then they deserve something for their efforts. 

That could leg really well anyway Instant Family.

[Valonqar]

15 minutes ago, Barnack said:

It is a best seller book author making a streamed in theater conference I think, never heard of her before.

Ah, thanks. 

[Porthos]

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: 

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:15pm - 1pm]

[Includes Limited Showings for Tuesday]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	11494	15841	27.44%

 

Total Showings Added Today:              3 (1 non reserved  seating showing) 

Total Seats Added Today:                 124

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night:     570 

 

.3538x as many tickets sold as Infinity War mid day of premiere.

.6326x as many tickets sold as Black Panther mid day of premiere. 

.6327x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2  mid day of premiere.

.8197x as many tickets sold as Solo mid day of premiere.

.8776x as many tickets sold as JW:FK mid day of premiere.

1.2297x as many tickets sold as AM&tW mid day of premiere.

1.2488x as many tickets sold as Venom mid day of premiere.

 

===

 

Tue/Thr Breakdown:

 

Tuesday Night Limited Engagement Seat Report: FINAL REPORT

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	6	563	1399	59.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                    n/a

 

Thursday Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:15pm - 1pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	128	10931	14442	24.31%

 

Total Showings Added Today:              3 (1 non reserved  seating showing) 

Total Seats Added Today:                 124

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night:     570 

=========

 

Detailed T-0 Mid-Day comps:

 

Black Panther:             943 tickets sold that half day. 63.54% of all seats sold. [3944/10816 seats left - 136 showings]

Infinity War:                752 tickets sold that half day. 81.05% of all seats sold. [3625/15159 seats left - 182 showings]

Deadpool 2:                942 tickets sold that half day. 42.41% of all seats sold. [9330/16201 seats left - 167 showings]

Solo:                           425 tickets sold that half day. 39.42% of all seats sold. [8150/13453 seats left - 142 showings]

Fallen Kingdom:          761 tickets sold that half day. 36.11% of all seats sold. [8762/13715 seats left - 147 showings]

Ant-Man & the Wasp:  897 tickets sold that half day. 32.44% of all seats sold. [7361/10896 seats left - 112 showings]

Venom:                       725 tickets sold that half day. 26.31% of all seats sold. [9748/13229 seats left - 127 showings]

Edited November 15, 2018 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: 

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:15pm - 1pm]

[Includes Limited Showings for Tuesday]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	11494	15841	27.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night:     570 

 

 

Solo:                           425 tickets sold that half day. 39.42% of all seats sold. [8150/13453 seats left - 142 showings]

 

Even Fantastic Beasts 2  is beating up on my poor Solo movie on the day of premiere. 

 

Just...     

[Porthos]

More seriously, it does not appear that the Limited Showings are cutting into FB2's sales that much tonight.  So far at least.

It's still behind the Marvel Movie Walkups, including the lower tier ones like Venom* and Ant-Man 2, but that's to be expected.

 

* Yes, it's a Marvel Movie.  Hush.

 

Since I close tracking shortly before first main showings of the night when I do my final update, I'll miss whatever sales are from 5pm - 6pm, but I did for Venom as well.  We'll see how much it matters.

 

It does appear that for whatever reason FB2 is over-performing in the Sacramento region, so I suspect my metric will be off by more than it usually is.  Still, does appear that 10m+ is a decent bet.  

 

OW?  Well, frontloading was always a thing for HP, so we'll see how it goes in a situation where there might be even MORE frontloading (sequel of a property getting mixed reaction at best)  than normal.

 

Edited November 15, 2018 by Porthos

[Alli]

Quote

online ticket retailer Fandango.com reports Grindelwald is pacing similarly to Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them at the same point in the Fandango sales cycle.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4457&p=.htm

[SoSaysI]

5 minutes ago, Alli said:

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4457&p=.htm

That’s really really bad if true.  Presales have increased dramatically since FB1 came out so if this isn’t out selling it is basically certain to underperform.

[Eric Duncan]

Fantastic Beasts	606	1764	34.01%
Instant Family	36	1366	2.64%
Widows	245	994	24.65%

 

Beasts Comps:

66% of Ragnarok (81.5M)

56% of Solo (47.4M)

44% of JW2 (65.8M)

91% of Ant-Man and the Wasp (69.1M)

145% of M:I Fallout (88.6M)

86% of Venom (69.3M)

 

A thing to keep in mind is my area got hit by a bad snowstorm today, so Thursday numbers will be deflated. There were even a few people who refunded their Thursday showings for that reason.

 

Regardless, the Ant-Man and Venom ones seem like a pretty strong comparison here. Also FWIW, there's a pretty sizable jump from Friday to Saturday, so this could play like a family movie similar to the first Beasts

 

Instant Family Comps:

45% of Game Night (7.6M)

55% of Blockers (11.4M)

86% of Tag (12.8M)

81% of Spy Who Dumped Me (9.9M)

33% of Crazy Rich Asians (8.7M)

 

No beating around the bush. This is doing awful at my theater. They're really gonna regret putting it in the second-largest auditorium while Widows got the smallest. Speaking of...

 

Widows Comps:

158% of Den of Thieves (24M)

57% of Breaking In (10.1M)

236% of Superfly (16.2M)

59% of Equalizer 2 (21.3M)

199% of BlacKkKlansman (21.6M)

 

It would be amazing to see Widows at those numbers, but given my theater I have some doubts. Hoping it overperforms tho

 

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

A thing to keep in mind is my area got hit by a bad snowstorm today, so Thursday numbers will be deflated. There were even a few people who refunded their Thursday showings for that reason.

 

Got my excuse bookmarked! 👍

 

(try to stay warm out there, okay?)

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Got my excuse bookmarked! 👍

 

(try to stay warm out there, okay?)

That snow storm was a nightmare! They told us this morning that we’d be getting a coating to an inch of snow and my area got 4.5 inches of snow 😩 It took me two hours to drive back home from classes. The roads are a mess. 

 

Id be weary of FB2 Thursday number as a result. Or any of the new openers numbers. 

[RealLyre]

FB2 better make all the money it can on opening weekend, cus after seeing the movie I predict it will have ugly legs 

 

 

[clockwork]

I will be very disappointed if it goes below 600 mil. Even if FB2 flops I don't see Warner Brothers dropping the 5 movie plan, pulling it down to 4 would be pushing it. This story feels very much like a slow burn which could turn into a catastrophe if they try to rush it, so I feel like WB may be stuck with making the whole 5 for now at least. 

[Eric Duncan]

And after just one quick check, my theater's closed up shop due to weather. I believe the 5 PM show for Beasts did go through, but I could be wrong. 

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, clockwork said:

I will be very disappointed if it goes below 600 mil. Even if FB2 flops I don't see Warner Brothers dropping the 5 movie plan, pulling it down to 4 would be pushing it. This story feels very much like a slow burn which could turn into a catastrophe if they try to rush it, so I feel like WB may be stuck with making the whole 5 for now at least. 

If the grosses for this one sink far enough they definitely won't be going through with five movies. Other studios will see a weak franchise with diminishing returns that they can easily release their blockbusters around with no fear of being overshadowed.

[Porthos]

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: 

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [4:10pm - 4:55pm]

[Includes Limited Showings for Tuesday]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	135	10784	15887	32.12%

 

Total Showings Added since 1pm:       1

Total Sets Added Since 1pm:             46

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:             756

 

.3876x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at final report.

.6297x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at final report. 

.6274x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at final report.

.8815x as many tickets sold as Solo at final report.

.8194x as many tickets sold as JW:FK at final report.

1.1081x as many tickets sold as AM&tW at final report.

1.1358x as many tickets sold as Venom at final report.

 

===

 

Tue/Thr Breakdown: (now spoilered for space)

Spoiler

Tuesday Night Limited Engagement Seat Report: FINAL REPORT

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	6	563	1399	59.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                    n/a

 

Thursday Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	129	10221	14488	29.45%

 

Total Showings Added since 1pm:       1

Total Sets Added Since 1pm:             46

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:             756 

 

===============

 

More detailed Final comps:

 

IW:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	59	182	1995	15159	86.84%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm(ish):       878

 

BP:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	26	136	3377	11481	70.59%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm(ish):     1232

 

DP2:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	169	8357	16490	49.32%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm(ish):     1262

 

Solo:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	5	143	7732	13521	42.81%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm(ish):       486

 

JW2:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	147	7487	13715	45.41%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:           1275

 

AM&tW:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	114	6515	11120	41.41%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:            1070

 

Venom

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	127	8736	13229	33.96%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:            1012

[Porthos]

35 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: 

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [4:10pm - 4:55pm]

[Includes Limited Showings for Tuesday]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	135	10784	15887	32.12%

 

Total Showings Added since 1pm:       1

Total Sets Added Since 1pm:             46

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:             756

 

.3876x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at final report.

.6297x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at final report. 

.6274x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at final report.

.8815x as many tickets sold as Solo at final report.

.8194x as many tickets sold as JW:FK at final report.

1.1081x as many tickets sold as AM&tW at final report.

1.1358x as many tickets sold as Venom at final report.

 

Deadpool 2 was my previous 'big miss', and I'm convinced most of it was the lack of 3D tickets skewing things.  It was in more theaters locally than BP, plus a few other things around the margins.

 

If it wasn't for the snowstorm causing the East Coast to look like it wanted to be the scene of Season 9 of Game of Thrones, I'd feel fairly confident in calling for around 10.5 to 11.5m in previews.

 

As it is though, I just think Sacto over-performed for whatever reason.  But if we go with the above numbers we get:

 

IW comp: 15.11m

BP comp: 15.86m

DP2 comp: 11.67m

Solo comp: 12.42m

JW2 comp: 12.53m

AM2 comp: 12.41m

Venom comp: 11.35m

 

If it wasn't for that freakin' storm, I'd be tempted to lay my reputation (such as it is) on the line and call for 11m in previews.  But since half the US is in the middle of an ice box, probably not.

 

Still, that's what my local numbers point to, so take it for what it's worth.

 

Edited November 16, 2018 by Porthos

[TomeRide]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

.3876x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at final report.

.6297x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at final report. 

.6274x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at final report.

.8815x as many tickets sold as Solo at final report.

.8194x as many tickets sold as JW:FK at final report.

1.1081x as many tickets sold as AM&tW at final report.

1.1358x as many tickets sold as Venom at final report.

 

$39M x 0.3876 = 15.12M

$25.2M x 0.6297 = $15.87M

$18.6M x 0.6274 = $11.67M

$14.1M x 0.8815 = $12.43M

$15.3M x 0.8194 = $12.54M

$11.5M x 1.1081 = $12.74M

$10M x 1.1358 = $11.36M 

 

These seven films average to $13.1M. It seems to me like the bigger numbers of Infinity War and Black Panther are skewing the comps, considering the rest of them all fell within a range of just $1.38M. Excluding Infinity War and Black Panther, the average goes down to $12.15M, which seems more reasonable. Now, the Tuesday sales ended up as 16.38% of all sales, which translates into $1.99M. Without those sales, the average for Thursday alone is $10.14M. 

 

So, either this this area really overperformed, or this film will need to be more frontloaded than Solo or BvS in order to fall to pre-opening expectations (even their slightly below 6x multipliers would get it to around $73M). I lean on the former, but still these presales suggest to me that below $10M is highly unlikely at this point (at least when counting in the Tuesday previews, which everyone will), and I stand by my prediction from earlier today of $10.5M-$11M for the full previews, and $75M for the weekend.

[WrathOfHan]

I was looking at apartments all day (got a lease!) so I son’t have any sellouts. That said, I’m gonna lowball all three openers based on what I’m reading in here.

[WrathOfHan]

Green Book is only opening in 1k theaters next week. Hm.

[Porthos]

The one thing here I don't think we can forget is the limited shows on Tuesday.  Now I know that ASIB's Thur number got hit by its Wed sneaks, as @TalismanRing showed (and my local data showed that as well), but I don't know if we have enough data points to truly know how limited/sneaks will affect movies going forward.

 

The only other recent big movie that had sneaks that I can recall was last year's Jumanji, which had an Amazon promotion of some sort the week before.

 

Probably others, but that's the only one that comes to mind.

 

I only mention this because while FB2 DID have less Thursday ticket sales than most of the movies listed, it still did beat out Solo by around 45% (1326 vs 911).

 

So, maaaaaaaaaaaybe FB2 will be 'saved' by those Tuesday Sneaks, even with the East Coast being slammed by the weather.

 

Really makes me wonder what FB2 might have gotten otherwise.   Or maybe FB2 just over-performed here even without the snow and everything else. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited November 16, 2018 by Porthos