The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[HouseOfTheSun]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'll wait until previews start at 7, but it's looking massive at both theaters

[grim22]

26 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Venom also outperformed tracking meaning that presales were weak 

Presales have nothing to do with tracking. Tracking is awareness measurement and presales don’t factor into it at all, it just measures how much each demo is aware of the movie and are interested in watching it.

[Hiccup23]

$5 Tuesday is fueling this weekend's openers at my theater and really throwing off projections for the weekend. 

 

Coco's preview numbers. It opened on Tuesday night as well. 

 

Coco

283

312

90.7%

 

This year's numbers. 

Wreck-It Ralph 2	775	1,034	75.0%
Creed II	384	792	48.5%
Robin Hood	155	312	49.7%

 

[HouseOfTheSun]

9 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Presales have nothing to do with tracking. Tracking is awareness measurement and presales don’t factor into it at all, it just measures how much each demo is aware of the movie and are interested in watching it.

Oh come on. Do you really think they don’t incorporate sales data into their tracking numbers?

Edited November 20, 2018 by HouseOfTheSun

[grim22]

5 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Oh come on. Do you really think they don’t incorporate sales data into their tracking numbers?

They don’t. We get tracking even before tickets go on sale a lot of times. Presales and tracking are 2 independent things. It's not like tracking numbers are a new thing which just popped up overnight. 

[WrathOfHan]

7:00 previews:

 

Local:

 

Creed II: 59/78

Robin Hood: 50/78

Green Book: 22/124

 

I don't have many good comps for Creed, but it's running at half of MI Fallout (30.6M). That's pretty close to tracking, and it'll only go up with the late show. I'll keep you guys posted.

Shockingly strong start for Robin Hood, and this theater isn't a fluke either. Spamming the trailer seems to have paid off.

Pretty good start for Green Book; it's running at 60% of The Post (11.6M). The 1k TC makes things a bit hard to predict (it also isn't selling too much at my theater tomorrow but it's also not dead), but a 5 day over 8-9M wouldn't be surprising.

 

Tallahassee:

 

Ralph: 

 

6:00: 96/104

6:00 Dolby: 87/236

7:00 3D: 24/40

Running Total: 207/380

 

Creed: 102/107

Robin Hood: 80/104

Green Book: 23/40

The Front Runner: 8/51

[el sid]

Yes, also at Pulse Robin Hood (and Green Book) improved during the day from what I saw. Not that bad given these reviews for RH and these trailers. Either T. Egerton has his fans or the brandmark Robin Hood is not completely out...

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours

Since: 2018-11-19 19:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

 

RANK PERCENT TICKETS MOVIE

1 21.238% 14706 Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald

2 15.970% 11058 Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)

3 15.752% 10907 Creed II

4 15.402% 10665 Ralph Breaks the Internet

5 07.566% 5239 Bohemian Rhapsody

6 05.468% 3786 Instant Family (2018)

7 04.256% 2947 Widows (2018)

8 02.709% 1876 Robin Hood (2018)

9 01.805% 1250 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

10 01.750% 1212 A Star Is Born (2018)

I think these are strong performances from Ralph 2 and Creed II. Not much longer and they will overtake The Grinch (and Ralph 2 will overtake FB 2 at MT). I'm so curious which presale numbers they will have .

 

[HouseOfTheSun]

2 hours ago, grim22 said:

They don’t. We get tracking even before tickets go on sale a lot of times. Presales and tracking are 2 independent things. It's not like tracking numbers are a new thing which just popped up overnight. 

Just because you get initial tracking before presales doesn’t mean they don’t incorporate them later. And even if the concept of tracking isn’t new, it doesn’t mean it hasn’t evolved. Why would you keep using an archaic model when you can use actual sales data. 

[grim22]

12 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Just because you get initial tracking before presales doesn’t mean they don’t incorporate them later. And even if the concept of tracking isn’t new, it doesn’t mean it hasn’t evolved. Why would you keep using an archaic model when you can use actual sales data. 

They keep evolving it, but none of the metrics include presales yet. Social media is included but NRG does not have access to presale data. Maybe in the future they will but not right now.

[WrathOfHan]

Final Ralph sales locally:

 

6:00: 66/78

8:45 3D: 39/78

Total: 99/156

 

This is outpacing Coco by 80% (91.4M), but it also had a extra show. Even with the second show removed, it's still 20% ahead (61M).

 

9:00 Creed: 14/113

Final Total: 73/191

 

Tallahassee update:

 

Ralph:

6:00: 96/104

6:00 Dolby: 87/236

7:00 3D: 24/40

9:00: 82/104

Running Total: 289/484

 

Creed II:

7:00: 102/107

8:45 Dolby: 162/236

Running Total: 264/343

 

 

Edited November 21, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[John Marston]

Grinch overtakes FB In Movietickets. Ouch 

[narniadis]

1 hour ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Just because you get initial tracking before presales doesn’t mean they don’t incorporate them later. And even if the concept of tracking isn’t new, it doesn’t mean it hasn’t evolved. Why would you keep using an archaic model when you can use actual sales data. 

 Because presales arent equal across all films. Presale data may work well for some (once we get it), especially heavy fan driven films. For others, particularly of the comedy or family genres it would be incredibly unreliable, especially as family films tend to not have much to report before a couple days prior. 

 

There is a reason that traditional tracking methods still work. 

[WrathOfHan]

Final Tallahassee sales:

 

Creed II:

7:00: 102/107

8:45 Dolby: 162/236

10:15: 83/107

11:45 Dolby: 39/236 (I'm not staying up to count this lol)

Total: 386/686

 

Ralph:

6:00: 96/104

6:00 Dolby: 87/236

7:00 3D: 24/40

9:00: 82/104

9:45 3D: 14/40

Total: 303/524 (265 2D/38 3D)

 

Robin Hood:

7:00: 80/104

10:00: 25/104

Total: 105/208

 

Green Book:

7:00: 23/40

10:15: 1/40

Total: 24/80

 

The Front Runner:

7:00: 8/51

10:00: 0/51

Total: 8/102

 

 

[Nova]

I was always under the impression that for these bigger tent pole type films, presales played a role in how tracking companies track the films of the presale data is available. I never thought they were the only factor in making predictions but I thought that if the data was available, it would be used. Similar to how social media tracking started to become a thing and has been used. I don’t know. Just seems silly to me to have that kind of data there and simply not use it at all. But i supposed they’re waiting until presales data is more reliable across the board before using it.

 

I learned something new today about box office. Thanks @grim22  

Edited November 21, 2018 by Nova

[HouseOfTheSun]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Final Tallahassee sales:

 

Creed II:

7:00: 102/107

8:45 Dolby: 162/236

10:15: 83/107

11:45 Dolby: 39/236 (I'm not staying up to count this lol)

Total: 386/686

 

Ralph:

6:00: 96/104

6:00 Dolby: 87/236

7:00 3D: 24/40

9:00: 82/104

9:45 3D: 14/40

Total: 303/524 (265 2D/38 3D)

 

Robin Hood:

7:00: 80/104

10:00: 25/104

Total: 105/208

 

Green Book:

7:00: 23/40

10:15: 1/40

Total: 24/80

 

The Front Runner:

7:00: 8/51

10:00: 0/51

Total: 8/102

 

 

Wow creed is killing it 😮

[YM!]

Starting to think Ralph 2 actually has a $90M five day.

[MattW]

1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Starting to think Ralph 2 actually has a $90M five day.

I'm not feeling over moana.

70-80, between coco and moana feels about right to me.

[That One Girl]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Robin Hood:

7:00: 80/104

10:00: 25/104

Total: 105/208

 

Green Book:

7:00: 23/40

10:15: 1/40

Total: 24/80

 

Hold the fuck up this is the first thing I see when I open the tracking thread.  Is Robin Hood gonna make like $30M for the 5-day or did I miss something?

[FantasticBeasts]

Some people forget Ralph is a sequrl with a lot if adult appeal. It will be presales heavy as fuck. Kind of a Moana case but more.

[filmlover]

5 hours ago, That One Guy said:

 

Hold the fuck up this is the first thing I see when I open the tracking thread.  Is Robin Hood gonna make like $30M for the 5-day or did I miss something?

It's been selling rather well around me. Headed for a 5-day opening in the high teens at least. My Red Dawn comparison from the other day is starting to look accurate.