The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Atreides]

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinke In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
Halloween	9,563	12,890	21,600	36,126
The Hate U Give (2K expansion)	1,026	1,542	1,559	2,055
Hunter Killer	91	368	1,062	2,726
Indivisible	33	89	204	440
Bohemian Rhapsody	7255	9026	12546	26476
Nutcracker	1659	1949	2567	5518
Nobody's Fool	436	900	1719	4437
The Grinch	3580	4860	10092	17046
Spider's Web	286	718	1735	3554
Overlord	299	604	1599	4522
Fantastic Beasts	8956	14238	21861	31880
Widows	310	868	2219	4179
Instant Family	230	565	1325	2584
Ralph 2 (Wed)	7005	12131
Creed II (Wed)	6712	12083
Robin Hood (Wed)	1602	1846
Green Book (Wed) (1K expansion)	387	922
*4pm-12am

 

Movie/Day	Monday	Tuesday
Aquaman	1116	573

[WrathOfHan]

7 hours ago, That One Guy said:

 

Hold the fuck up this is the first thing I see when I open the tracking thread.  Is Robin Hood gonna make like $30M for the 5-day or did I miss something?

It’s looking like another Red Dawn/47 Ronin. Keep in mind it had a $5 promo with Atom yesterday

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

It’s looking like another Red Dawn/47 Ronin. Keep in mind it had a $5 promo with Atom yesterday

Bingo, it was $5 off with no fees...so Atom theaters with cheap Tuesdays were literally free tickets.  I almost bought one, but I'm so deep in Thanksgiving prep (and a second adult party prep for Saturday - no idea why I was thinking that was a good idea), that I just don't have time yet...so I'll watch good movies next week, vs free ones yesterday (although, I guess I could still go free next Tuesday:)...

[grim22]

2 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinke In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
Halloween	9,563	12,890	21,600	36,126
The Hate U Give (2K expansion)	1,026	1,542	1,559	2,055
Hunter Killer	91	368	1,062	2,726
Indivisible	33	89	204	440
Bohemian Rhapsody	7255	9026	12546	26476
Nutcracker	1659	1949	2567	5518
Nobody's Fool	436	900	1719	4437
The Grinch	3580	4860	10092	17046
Spider's Web	286	718	1735	3554
Overlord	299	604	1599	4522
Fantastic Beasts	8956	14238	21861	31880
Widows	310	868	2219	4179
Instant Family	230	565	1325	2584
Ralph 2 (Wed)	7005	12131
Creed II (Wed)	6712	12083
Robin Hood (Wed)	1602	1846
Green Book (Wed) (1K expansion)	387	922
*4pm-12am

 

Movie/Day	Monday	Tuesday
Aquaman	1116	573

Maybe it’s time to start using spoiler tags for archive data. It’s getting too big to scroll on mobile now.

[Hiccup23]

Wreck-It Ralph 2	862	3,246	26.6%
Creed II	150	1,406	10.7%
Robin Hood	67	468	14.3%

 

 

My theater today. Started with showings that started at 9am. Wreck-It Ralph II is benefiting from schools being out greatly. It also has more presales than Creed II.

 

Creed II seems to be selling tickets on a walk up basis at my theater. Unfortunately, most of its showings are after 7pm with a decent amount 9pm or later. This is kind of hurting it at my theater. 

 

Robin Hood is extremely limited since it is on the smallest screens at my theater and this will limit its audience size. Its showings are pretty well sprinkled throughout the day though and it is doing best at its 4pm and 7pm showtimes. 

[MaxAggressor]

https://deadline.com/2018/11/spider-man-into-the-spider-verse-early-projection-mortal-engines-clint-eastwood-the-mule-1202505970/

 

As such, Sony’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse is the first big movie to hit the marquee following Thanksgiving, and should the film –which we hear is great– comes up short in its opening weekend, it will likely find an audience in the post-season holiday.

 

We’re hearing a $30M+ start is reasonable for this movie, but it could jump up as high as $40M. At this point the pic is strong with males younger and older (25) and young females under 25. As a comp, as animated superhero movies based off comic books typically are released directly into the home entertainment market (i.e. DC pics), Spider-Verse‘s opening would be higher than Warner Bros./Miramax’s toon revival of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, TMNT which bowed to $24.2M.

[MaxAggressor]

Also

 

Given adults’ to-do list before Christmas, Warner Bros.’ The Mule may be one of those pics that gets pushed until after the holiday. That said, a $15M-$17M is possible. If the Clint Eastwood-directed movie, which also stars him, truly dynamites adults out, it could see $20M, but a $15M beginning is reasonable. Film is tracking best with older males and females over 25.

 

Universal’s sci-fi/fantasy Mortal Engines based on the Philip Reeve book and produced by Peter Jackson, and adapted/produced by his wife Fran Walsh is looking low in the $12M-$15M range. It is currently bes with younger males under 25.

[TomeRide]

10 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

https://deadline.com/2018/11/spider-man-into-the-spider-verse-early-projection-mortal-engines-clint-eastwood-the-mule-1202505970/

 

As such, Sony’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse is the first big movie to hit the marquee following Thanksgiving, and should the film –which we hear is great– comes up short in its opening weekend, it will likely find an audience in the post-season holiday.

 

We’re hearing a $30M+ start is reasonable for this movie, but it could jump up as high as $40M. At this point the pic is strong with males younger and older (25) and young females under 25. As a comp, as animated superhero movies based off comic books typically are released directly into the home entertainment market (i.e. DC pics), Spider-Verse‘s opening would be higher than Warner Bros./Miramax’s toon revival of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, TMNT which bowed to $24.2M.

Just a reminder that Box Office Pro predicted $22M, lol.

[grim22]

12 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

https://deadline.com/2018/11/spider-man-into-the-spider-verse-early-projection-mortal-engines-clint-eastwood-the-mule-1202505970/

 

As such, Sony’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse is the first big movie to hit the marquee following Thanksgiving, and should the film –which we hear is great– comes up short in its opening weekend, it will likely find an audience in the post-season holiday.

 

We’re hearing a $30M+ start is reasonable for this movie, but it could jump up as high as $40M. At this point the pic is strong with males younger and older (25) and young females under 25. As a comp, as animated superhero movies based off comic books typically are released directly into the home entertainment market (i.e. DC pics), Spider-Verse‘s opening would be higher than Warner Bros./Miramax’s toon revival of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, TMNT which bowed to $24.2M.

 

10 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

Also

 

Given adults’ to-do list before Christmas, Warner Bros.’ The Mule may be one of those pics that gets pushed until after the holiday. That said, a $15M-$17M is possible. If the Clint Eastwood-directed movie, which also stars him, truly dynamites adults out, it could see $20M, but a $15M beginning is reasonable. Film is tracking best with older males and females over 25.

 

Universal’s sci-fi/fantasy Mortal Engines based on the Philip Reeve book and produced by Peter Jackson, and adapted/produced by his wife Fran Walsh is looking low in the $12M-$15M range. It is currently bes with younger males under 25.

Sounds about right for the movies. I can see Mortal Engines going lower as well. It will be about legs than a big opening.

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

Is it too late to delay Mortal Engines?

[grim22]

1 minute ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Is it too late to delay Mortal Engines?

It's going to bomb wherever it opens tbh. It's the designated casualty of the holiday season because all the audiences it is targeting will have a different first choice movie over the holidays.

[DAJK]

I mean I want to see Spiderverse, but I haven’t met a single person who also does. Person I saw Beasts with last night said she thought it looked “awful” after the trailer.

[WrathOfHan]

That sounds right for tracking. Spider-Verse needs strong reviews for 40M, but 30M would likely lock 120+

[grim22]

Box office pro updating the tracking based on actual tracking numbers

 

12/14/2018	Mortal Engines	$14,000,000	-13%	$50,000,000	-10%		Universal
12/14/2018	The Mule	$15,000,000	7%	$80,000,000			Warner Bros.
12/14/2018	Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse	$29,000,000	32%	$130,000,000	44%		Sony / Columbia

[kitik]

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-glass/

 

Box Office Pro predicting awesome numbers for Glass, 67/180

 

Also upped their Spider-Verse numbers to 29/130

[MaxAggressor]

@WrathOfHan

 

https://deadline.com/2018/11/bumblebee-sneak-previews-hailee-steinfeld-december-paramount-1202506008/

 

Following the Warner Bros./Amazon Prime announcement that they’re holding paid sneaks for Aquaman on Dec. 15 in 1,000 locations, Paramount will be holding one-day previews for their Transformers spinoff Bumblebee on Saturday, Dec. 8 ahead of its Dec. 21 opening.

[WrathOfHan]

2 hours ago, MaxAggressor said:

@WrathOfHan

 

https://deadline.com/2018/11/bumblebee-sneak-previews-hailee-steinfeld-december-paramount-1202506008/

 

Following the Warner Bros./Amazon Prime announcement that they’re holding paid sneaks for Aquaman on Dec. 15 in 1,000 locations, Paramount will be holding one-day previews for their Transformers spinoff Bumblebee on Saturday, Dec. 8 ahead of its Dec. 21 opening.

DAMMIT IT'S NOT PLAYING NEAR ME 

[filmlover]

I have no idea who the audience for Mortal Engines is supposed to be. Hopefully it doesn't cost something crazy like $200M.

[Jonwo]

If The Mule opens higher than Mortal Engines, that'll be a disaster for Universal.  $15-20m does seem about right for The Mule although I'm surprised WB decided to go wide with it rather than starting it off limited then opening wide in January.

Edited November 22, 2018 by Jonwo

[filmlover]

Just now, Jonwo said:

If The Mule opens higher than Mortal Engines, that'll be a disaster for Universal.  $15-20m does seem about right for The Mule although I'm surprised WB decided to go wide with it rather than starting it off limited then opening wide in January.

Maybe they just see it as a potential moneymaker over the holidays and awards are secondary. FWIW it's still not up on their FYC page (yet, at least).