The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

It's gonna be interesting at small and midsize theaters next weekend...

 

My 12s have booked 2 and 3 movies already...and while they have an easy 1.5 screens to cut (Ralph/Grinch/Beasts at one and Ralph/Grinch at the other), they are gonna have to pare either a very recent open (Holmes and Watson, are you listening?:) or something like Second Act (it will be tougher at the theater with 3 booked movies b/c neither theater has any of the holiday losers - like Marwen or Mortal Engines - left)...some of the lesser Xmas openers could feel a bigger than expected pinch next weekend...and then the following one, probably everyone will feel the hit from Glass:)...

[MrGlass2]

On 1/6/2019 at 6:27 AM, MrGlass2 said:

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	21.267%	14608	Aquaman
2	12.085%	8301	Escape Room (2019)
3	11.054%	7593	Mary Poppins Returns (2018)
4	09.829%	6751	Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
5	07.721%	5303	Bumblebee

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-01-06 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	21.504%	14847	Aquaman
2	12.559%	8671	Escape Room (2019)
3	10.225%	7060	Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
4	09.792%	6761	Mary Poppins Returns (2018)
5	08.095%	5589	Bumblebee

[Neucentro]

It looks like Spider-Verse, Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody are going to get a boost today from the Golden Globe.

 

[DAJK]

Any chance On the Basis of Sex hits 10M this weekend? BOM has its TC at 2k and its PTA has been relatively strong the past few weeks. Could see a mini Hidden Figures happen and have it end with over 50M. 

[MrGlass2]

23 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	21.504%	14847	Aquaman
2	12.559%	8671	Escape Room (2019)
3	10.225%	7060	Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
4	09.792%	6761	Mary Poppins Returns (2018)
5	08.095%	5589	Bumblebee

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-01-07 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	15.296%	6245	Aquaman
2	09.540%	3895	Captain Marvel (2019)
3	08.734%	3566	Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
4	08.090%	3303	Escape Room (2019)
5	07.539%	3078	Mary Poppins Returns (2018)
6	05.966%	2436	Dragon Ball Super Broly
7	05.562%	2271	Bumblebee
8	04.269%	1743	Vice (2018)
9	03.840%	1568	The Mule (2018)
10	03.779%	1543	Captain Marvel

[Porthos]

Since Captain Marvel has only been selling for a few hours, I'll pull a Solo and wait 'till tomorrow and post a full 24 hour+ report and do my first Sacramento report then.

[Porthos]

BTW, by my count there's gonna be something like 57 58 days of presales for Captain Marvel.  Well, 58 and a third.

 

That is by far the longest I have tracked on a seat count, so the comps are gonna be pretty screwy in some respects.  In fact, I probably won't do any sort of compare beyond the first few days of sales [if I have that info] until much later into the run.  There's just no point to doing a like-for-like compare for something that has been on sale for three weeks but still is over a month plus away from premiering with something that's been on sale for two weeks yet premieres the next week.

 

The only one I might keep up a compare on is Infinity War, as that had 41 days of presales, which is kinda sorta close to 58.  But, then again, IW is just a different beast altogether, so perhaps not.

 

It's also possible/probable I'll shift down to a two-a-week update on the seat count after the initial rush dies down, though I'll still update on my home spreadsheet.  Might depend on just how low the tickets-per-day goes.

 

Play it by ear, in other words. Like usual.

Edited January 9, 2019 by Porthos
Can't freaking count. Bah

[WrathOfHan]

On 1/1/2019 at 10:22 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Zero is gone.

 

Escape Room: 5 (Average)

If Beale Street Could Talk: 5 (Biggest)

Bohemian Rhapsody: 2 (Return; Smallest x0.5)

 

Aquaman: 11 (Down 1 and lost 3D; IMAX, Biggest x1.2, and Smallest x0.5)

Mary Poppins Returns: 10 (Up 1; Dolby, Biggest x0.8, and Below Average x0.67)

Bumblebee: 9 (Down 3 and lost 3D; Biggest and Above Average)

Holmes and Watson: 6 (Flat; Smallest)

The Favorite: 5 (Up 1; Average)

Mary Queen of Scots: 5 (Up 1; Smallest)

The Mule: 5 (Flat; Average)

Second Act: 5 (Flat; Smallest)

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse: 5 (Down 5 and lost 3D; Above Average)

Vice: 5 (Up 1; Average)

Dr. Seuss' The Grinch: 4 (Flat; Smallest x0.8)

Ralph Breaks the Internet: 4 (Flat; Below Average x0.8)

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald: 2 (Flat; Smallest x0.5)

Creed II: 1 (Down 1; Smallest x0.25)

Instant Family: 1 (Flat; Smallest x0.25)

Mortal Engines: 1 (Down 4; Smallest x0.2)

Simmba: 1 (Down 3; Below Average x0.33)

Welcome to Marwen: 1 (Down 4; Below Average x0.2)

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:

  Hide contents

 

IMAX: 372 seats

Dolby: 236 seats

Biggest: 104-107 seats (4 auditoriums are this size)

Above Average: 77 seats (2 auditoriums are this size)

Average: 67-70 seats (4 auditoriums are this size)

Below Average: 51-54 seats (2 auditoriums are this size)

Smallest: 40 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

 

 

 

A Dog's Way Home: 5 (Below Average)

On the Basis of Sex: 5 (Biggest and Smallest x0.2)

Replicas: 5 (Average)

The Upside: 5 (Average and Smallest x0.2)

Ben Is Back: 4 (Smallest)

A Star Is Born: 4 (Return; Dolby)

 

Aquaman: 8 (Down 3; IMAX and Biggest)

Bumblebee: 5 (Down 4; Average x0.2 and Below Average)

Escape Room: 5 (Flat; Biggest)

Mary Poppins Returns: 5 (Down 6; Average and Smallest x0.2)

Ralph Breaks the Internet: 5 (Up 1; Smallest)

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse: 5 (Flat; Biggest)

The Favourite: 4 (Down 1; Smallest)

If Beale Street Could Talk: 4 (Down 1; Above Average)

Mary Queen of Scots: 4 (Down 1; Smallest)

The Mule: 4 (Down 1; Smallest)

Vice: 4 (Down 1; Above Average)

Bohemian Rhapsody: 2 (Flat; 1 2D/1 Sing A Long; Average x0.4)

Holmes and Watson: 2 (Down 4; Smallest x0.4)

Second Act: 2 (Down 3; Average x0.4)

Dr. Seuss' The Grinch: 1 (Down 3; Smallest x0.2)

 

During the weekend, A Dog's Way Home pushes Spider-Verse out of one of the biggest auditoriums, and Escape Room gets extra shows from Mary Queen of Scots.

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:

Spoiler

IMAX: 372 seats

Dolby: 236 seats

Biggest: 104-107 seats (4 auditoriums are this size)

Above Average: 77 seats (2 auditoriums are this size)

Average: 67-70 seats (4 auditoriums are this size)

Below Average: 51-54 seats (2 auditoriums are this size)

Smallest: 40 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

 

 

[MrGlass2]

On 1/8/2019 at 6:23 AM, MrGlass2 said:

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	15.296%	6245	Aquaman
2	09.540%	3895	Captain Marvel (2019)
3	08.734%	3566	Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
4	08.090%	3303	Escape Room (2019)
5	07.539%	3078	Mary Poppins Returns (2018)

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-01-08 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	15.783%	10176	Aquaman
2	09.818%	6330	Captain Marvel (2019)
3	09.762%	6294	Escape Room (2019)
4	07.836%	5052	Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
5	05.951%	3837	Bumblebee
6	05.486%	3537	Mary Poppins Returns (2018)
7	04.903%	3161	Dragon Ball Super Broly
8	04.442%	2864	The Mule (2018)
9	04.261%	2747	Vice (2018)
10	03.826%	2467	Captain Marvel

[Porthos]

 

 

===========

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-58 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	63	7206	8704	17.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:      1498 (Includes tickets on sale a few hours yesterday)

 

.3213x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after one day of pre-sales.

.7620x as many tickets sold as Black Panther after nine days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for BP]

.8750x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 after nine-plus days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for DP2] [Some theaters went on sale early for DP2, allowing for a stronger reported 'first day' of sales]

.5696x as many tickets sold as Solo after one day of pre-sales. 

2.5176x as many tickets sold as JW:FK after one day of pre-sales.
2.2835x as many tickers sold as FB2 after one day of pre-sales. [some theaters went on sale early for FB2, allowing for a stronger reported 'first day' of sales]

Edited January 16, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

I think I'll keep up the comps for all of these films for about a week or so, then drop them all except for possibly Infinity War next Thursday until much closer to release night.  The first week of sales should be a decent enough benchmark despite the wide disparity of release pattens.  Still including the BP and DP2 sale info right now, even though I don't have the first week-plus of sales, as they might be the best comps at the moment.

 

The interesting, but probably not surprising thing this far out, is that I don't have any info for a couple of theaters that I expect to get Captain Marvel. Others only have a very partial schedule up and I expect them to fill out in the weeks to come, so that number of showings will go up dramatically.  Also, I now have reserved seating information for yet another theater complex in Sacramento (Century Greenback) where before I only had sellout information. It'll be interesting to see how that theatre compares to others in the region, now that I can get like for like info on it finally.

 

Overall a strong start.  We'll see just how strong of a start in the coming days.

 

Naturally, with the exceedingly long period of ticket sales, the pace per day is gonna drop through the floor for a looooooong time (yes, it did even for IW).  What I'm interesting in seeing is the compare and contrast in just how low the per-day gets and how many tickets are still sold in the 'fallow' period.

 

Should be fun to find out.

Edited January 9, 2019 by Porthos

[fabiopazzo2]

IW is another type of monster, the best comp is BP but for me Captain Marvel has 0 chance to pass T'challa 

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

IW is another type of monster, the best comp is BP but for me Captain Marvel has 0 chance to pass T'challa 

I'm mostly looking for the percentage based comps when it comes to both IW and BP, not if Captain Marvel can approach Black Panther. Personally I'm with you with thinking it is exceedingly unlikely, if only because of unique circumstances surrounding BP.

 

But at the same time, comps on a percentage base are probably the best when it comes to BP (Marvel solo movie that introduces [for the most part] a character at the beginning of the year) and perhaps to a lesser extent DP2 (mega CBM movie that had 18.6m on its preview night).  Curious to see how much better it does than DP2, if it does indeed do better (DP2 not having 3D hurt it, IMO).

 

Also the asymmetric jump BP had toward the end starting when the world premiere happened was wild, even for a Marvel movie.  So the comps can only go so far (unless Captain Marvel has a similar O-M-G buzz out of its world premiere). 

 

Still, data is data.  Just don't expect too much out of it.

Edited January 9, 2019 by Porthos

[Napoleon]

I see no hype for Captain Marvel. It will need fantastic reviews and word of mouth.

Edited January 9, 2019 by Napoleon

[Eric Atreides]

DO NOT QUOTE THIS WHEN QUOTED THE SPOILER IS REMOVED FROM ITS BOX

 

Spoiler

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinkle In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1,282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade (1K expansion)	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Smallfoot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
Halloween	9,563	12,890	21,600	36,126
The Hate U Give (2K expansion)	1,026	1,542	1,559	2,055
Hunter Killer	91	368	1,062	2,726
Indivisible	33	89	204	440
Bohemian Rhapsody	7,255	9,026	12,546	26,476
Nutcracker	1,659	1,949	2,567	5,518
Nobody's Fool	436	900	1,719	4,437
The Grinch	3,580	4,860	10,092	17,046
Spider's Web	286	718	1,735	3,554
Overlord	299	604	1,599	4,522
Fantastic Beasts	8,956	14,238	21,861	31,880
Widows	310	868	2,219	4,179
Instant Family	230	565	1,325	2,584
Ralph 2 (Wed)	7,005	12,131	19,183	15,559
Creed II (Wed)	6,712	12,083	15,354	15,870
Robin Hood (Wed)	1,602	1,846	2,621	2,632
Green Book (Wed) (1K expansion)	387	922	1,701	2,268
Possession of Hannah Grace	105	285	893	3,053
Mortal Engines	465	785	1,504	3,475
The Mule	791	1,779	3,882	6,235
Spider-Verse	3,715	5,208	9,858	19,972
Once Upon A Deadpool (Wed)	1,732	3,402	3,621	2,310
Mary Poppins (Wed)	7,713	9,137	16,304
Aquaman	8,502	9,671	15,063
Bumblebee	1,553	1,817	3,157
Second Act	353	611	1,204
Marwen	299	403	658
Escape Room	111	368	1,543	7,297
Dogs Way Home	259	623
Replicas	21	133
Upside	394	1,431
*4pm-12am

 

 

 

Dogs Way Home	259	623
Replicas	21	133
Upside	394	1,431

 

 

Dog's Tuesday is

487% of Show Dogs': 29.3M

23% of Hotel Transylvania 3's: 10.3M

42% of House w/ Clock's: 11.3M

49% of Smallfoot's: 11.4M

99% of Goosebumps 2's: 15.6M

110% of Instant Family's: 16M

 

Replicas' Tuesday is:

112% of Upgrade's: 5.2M

80% of Hotel Artemis': 2.6M

187% of Unfriended 2's: 6.8M

94% of Kin's: 2.9M

36% of Hunter Killer's: 2.4M

 

Upside's Tuesday is:

88% of I Feel Pretty's: 14.2M

109% of Life of the Party's: 19.5M

89% of Book Club's: 12.1M

883% of Life Itself's: 18.8M

81% of Night School's: 22.2M

159% of Nobody's Fool's: 21.8M

234% of Second Act's (X-Mas): 15.2M

 

With Dog and Replicas, it's easy to find good comps. Upside is a little tricky. I was going for star-driven comedies, but this is also a dramedy, and it's hard to find any recent examples within that genre, apart from maybe Life Itself (well, it's an unintentional dramedy ya kna i mean). Either way, it seems like if any of this weekend's new releases sees a breakout, it should be Upside.

[reddevil19]

High teens, maybe even just over 20 could happen for Dogs Way Home, which would spoil Aquaman's run (would be nice for it to be number 1 domestically when it hits the billion). 

[DAJK]

Dogs Way Home looks good for 14-15M or so. I think Goosebumps and IF are pretty good comps for this one. 

Replicas I never thought would go above 3-3.5M so these comps don't surprise me. 

Upside is looking actually pretty strong. I was originally thinking 10-11M but 14-15 could happen, challenging Dog for #1 opener. 

 

Anything for On the Basis of Sex @CoolEric258? I think that one was semi-breakout potential and could top 10M this weekend. 

[Valonqar]

On 1/7/2019 at 6:51 PM, Neucentro said:

It looks like Spider-Verse, Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody are going to get a boost today from the Golden Globe.

 

Good. BR should pass 200M and Spidey will sweep awards and extend those long legs. 

[Eric Atreides]

5 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Dogs Way Home looks good for 14-15M or so. I think Goosebumps and IF are pretty good comps for this one. 

Replicas I never thought would go above 3-3.5M so these comps don't surprise me. 

Upside is looking actually pretty strong. I was originally thinking 10-11M but 14-15 could happen, challenging Dog for #1 opener. 

 

Anything for On the Basis of Sex @CoolEric258? I think that one was semi-breakout potential and could top 10M this weekend. 

It's always a bit hard to do comps for expansions, but I'll try.

 

On the Basis (2K expansion)

537

1,043

 

Basis' Tuesday is:

205% of Eighth Grade's 1K theater expansion: 5.8M

68% of Hate U Give's 2K theater expansion: 5.1M

113% of Green Book's 1K theater expansion (Wed. opening): 6.2M

 

I know people may argue "what about x and y as comps?" But I believe that when it comes to tracking movies like On the Basis, which opened in limited and is expanding to a large amount of theaters, you can't compare it to say First Man or Widows. Those movies don't have the movie playing in theaters to inflate their ticket grosses. Eighth Grade and Hate U Give and the like have.

 

I guess this makes 10M iffy, but Wednesday is still to come, and we don't have much to work off either way.

[dxmatrixdt]

big jumps Tuesday after good drops on Monday.  

good during political climate with govt. shutdown, might see light holds this weekend w/ holdovers & a repeat with top 5 films in double digits

dunno how pre-sales are with Glass, opens in 8 days, no reason why the 3rd weekend in Jan. could plummet

NFL playoffs seemed to affect Sat+Sun, 4 games are on Sat+Sun

curious how Europe is doing compared to past years, Aquaman's success makes it seem like next VFX tentpole should have high demand

hoping Netflix will add more movie customers at theaters, advertising probably always has most control to direct movie awareness to people

Netflix customers probably prefer Netflix over tv/cable bc of no commercials and will continue to stray from tv/cable to recordings and Netflix and movie theaters

perhaps regular TV viewing #s will decline like music industry and different media platforms will take over