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MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY HOLIDAYS!

grim22

The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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On 1/10/2019 at 12:08 AM, DAJK said:

BvS technically did have a better OD than Avengers. Star Wars is always pre-sale heavy, as is Beasts, while JW we already know is extremely walk-up heavy.

 

Your points are valid if looked at on their own, but there’s so much context missing from them.

Sure, but my overall point was that being high or low in pre-sales isn't the beginning of everything. Someone said it's not that special that Captain Marvel is only ahead of Ant-Man And The Wasp, to which I replied that not only is Ant-Man 2 not the best comparable, but it doesn't seem to be trailing that far behind Black Panther either and I feel like it will have a lot of walk-ups anyway.

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The Upside is dominating on Fandango:

2019-01-11 08:00:00	725	The Upside
2019-01-11 08:00:00	293	On the Basis of Sex
2019-01-11 08:00:00	258	A Dogs Way Home
2019-01-11 08:00:00	249	Aquaman
2019-01-11 08:00:00	169	Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
...
2019-01-11 08:00:00	39	Replicas

I believe we have a new #1 and a possible breakout.

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Okay, so I still had a lot of 2017's info readily available, so I made a chart!

 

Spoiler tagged to save some space, and if you wouldn't mind, let's keep them that way please!

 

Spoiler

ydxfhpG.png

 

This is the chart in order of opening weekends for movies that I tracked.  

 

Spoiler

0rS6vFY.png

 

This is the same list, but ordered by amount of presales.  I moved BATB up to second because the last info that I had was a week old and it would have AT LEAST doubled if not more in that time.  Thor's last number was the Monday before and it would have come close to doubling as well.

 

Justice League is an obvious outlier.  I don't know exactly what happened, but that number is why I was POSITIVE it wasn't going to do less than $100m.  But there are exceptions to every rule.  

 

Now, if you take those numbers and plug in CM(at 3.6), it's right around Thor/It which puts it at about $120m or so right now, after just 3 days.  

 

Does this mean it will get the March OW record, of course not!  But I def thing Hunger Games is the target right now, and we shall see as it gets closer.

Edited by Deep Wang
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1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

Okay, so I still had a lot of 2017's info readily available, so I made a chart!

 

Spoiler tagged to save some space, and if you wouldn't mind, let's keep them that way please!

 

  Hide contents

ydxfhpG.png

 

This is the chart in order of opening weekends for movies that I tracked.  

 

  Hide contents

0rS6vFY.png

 

This is the same list, but ordered by amount of presales.  I moved BATB up to second because the last info that I had was a week old and it would have AT LEAST doubled if not more in that time.  Thor's last number was the Monday before and it would have come close to doubling as well.

 

Justice League is an obvious outlier.  I don't know exactly what happened, but that number is why I was POSITIVE it wasn't going to do less than $100m.  But there are exceptions to every rule.  

 

Now, if you take those numbers and plug in CM(at 3.6), it's right around Thor/It which puts it at about $120m or so right now, after just 3 days.  

 

Does this mean it will get the March OW record, of course not!  But I def thing Hunger Games is the target right now, and we shall see as it gets closer.

IIRC, CW was near $10m and BVS was just under in the mid to high 9s which is why JL's $5.6m - almost two years later - did not bode well and it wound u doing 56% of BVS ow which is right in line with the pre-sales from this chain.

 

For your records, BATB I think was also slightly above above CW.

 

Edited by TalismanRing
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1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

IIRC, CW was near $10m and BVS was just under in the mid to high 9s which is why JL's $5.6m - almost two years later - did not bode well

 

For your records, BATB I think was also above CW

Yes, you are correct, this was just what I had access to from my own stuff.  @grim22 has already informed me CW was 9.8 and Thor was 5.6m.  He is pretty sure BATB was about 10m and BvS was about 8.9m.

 

If anything those just help prove that these numbers are pretty accurate at mega openings.  Anything less than 1m in presales are all over the place.  But if you hit in the range of 8-10m you are looking at 150m+.

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1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

Okay, so I still had a lot of 2017's info readily available, so I made a chart!

 

Spoiler tagged to save some space, and if you wouldn't mind, let's keep them that way please...

 

 

Now, if you take those numbers and plug in CM(at 3.6), it's right around Thor/It which puts it at about $120m or so right now, after just 3 days.  

 

Does this mean it will get the March OW record, of course not!  But I def thing Hunger Games is the target right now, and we shall see as it gets closer.

For Glass's $390K, not a whole lot of similar movies on that list - maybe Dark Tower and its $371K is closest...so, I guess we see where Glass is 1 day out and compare to how many multiples above Dark Tower (which probably had its own "King" base) it is to get a guesstimate on OW...

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5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

For Glass's $390K, not a whole lot of similar movies on that list - maybe Dark Tower and its $371K is closest...so, I guess we see where Glass is 1 day out and compare to how many multiples above Dark Tower (which probably had its own "King" base) it is to get a guesstimate on OW...

Well, it's 390k now, but I bet it approaches 1m by Thursday, if not more than that.  So I think $40-45m is a good bet.

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28 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Well, it's 390k now, but I bet it approaches 1m by Thursday, if not more than that.  So I think $40-45m is a good bet.

$40-45M would be disappointing. 

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2 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

$40-45M would be disappointing. 

Just like the movie apparently!  I mean, I think I am probably lowballing it some.  I just think the hype hasn't been there for a while and now that the reviews are out, yikes!  I think it will have a good Thursday night and Friday and crash over the weekend once word gets out.

 

Obviously it could still EASILY hit $50-60m, I just have no idea what to do with this info knowing that it's a letdown.  That makes it immensely harder to predict.

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1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

Just like the movie apparently!  I mean, I think I am probably lowballing it some.  I just think the hype hasn't been there for a while and now that the reviews are out, yikes!  I think it will have a good Thursday night and Friday and crash over the weekend once word gets out.

 

Obviously it could still EASILY hit $50-60m, I just have no idea what to do with this info knowing that it's a letdown.  That makes it immensely harder to predict.

Critics said the same thing about Venom and Aquaman though.

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8 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Critics said the same thing about Venom and Aquaman though.

The difference though is that this movie is mostly dialogue (from what I have read). I think people are going to be bored.

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The months of March, July and November this year are so barren as if every other major studio is giving Disney a pass.  So strange.

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18 minutes ago, Neucentro said:

The months of March, July and November this year are so barren as if every other major studio is giving Disney a pass.  So strange.

March has Us and to a lesser extent Wonder Park, while July has Spider-Man and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Not that barren. November's the only one that's arguable, but that's mainly because Wonder Woman and Bond left that month.

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23 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

March has Us and to a lesser extent Wonder Park, while July has Spider-Man and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Not that barren. November's the only one that's arguable, but that's mainly because Wonder Woman and Bond left that month.

March is spring break and July is prime summer.  I had expected one blockbuster from each week and some medium hits to counter-program. The two months are lacking both.

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I feel like Annapurna shafted Vice's theater count this week. Theater count went like 33% down. Weird after having small drops over the week and weekend

Edited by Pinacolada

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On 1/11/2019 at 6:31 AM, MrGlass2 said:

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	13.699%	8526	The Upside
2	10.445%	6501	Aquaman
3	06.994%	4353	Dragon Ball Super Broly
4	05.908%	3677	Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
5	05.669%	3528	On the Basis of Sex
Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-01-11 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	19.811%	14384	The Upside
2	10.644%	7728	Aquaman
3	06.362%	4619	A Dogs Way Home
4	06.285%	4563	On the Basis of Sex
5	06.020%	4371	Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
6	05.234%	3800	Escape Room (2019)
7	04.991%	3624	Mary Poppins Returns (2018)
8	04.476%	3250	Dragon Ball Super Broly
9	03.507%	2546	Bumblebee
10	03.456%	2509	The Mule (2018)
...
15	01.763%	1280	Replicas
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Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-55 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

81

8691

10608

18.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:               64

 

.3386x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after four days of pre-sales.

.9751x as many tickets sold as Black Panther after nine days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for BP]

1.1197x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 after nine-plus days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for DP2] 

.6329x as many tickets sold as Solo after four days of pre-sales. 

2.0010x as many tickets sold as JW:FK after four days of pre-sales.
1.9621x as many tickers sold as FB2 after four-plus days of pre-sales.

 

===

 

Day Four Comps:

 

IW:      195 tickets sold [1 sellout/106 showings |   4838/10500 seats left  | 53.92% sold] 

Solo:   116 tickets sold [0 sellouts/87 showings  |   6319/9348 seats left    | 32.40% sold]

JW:FK:   87 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings  |   9155/10113 seats left  |   9.47% sold]

FB2:      88 tickets sold [0 sellouts/94 showings  | 12400/13377 seats left  |   7.30% sold]

Edited by Porthos
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