The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[DAJK]

I think the level of front-loadedness/walk-ups going to depend on whether it's seen as more of a Split sequel or Unbreakable sequel by general audiences. Split was one of those instances (at my theater at least) that seemed destined to bomb due to lack of any pre-sales whatsoever (didn't hold Thursday night shows, and as of Friday afternoon there was like 1 or 2 tickets sold the entire weekend) then walk-ups went nuts. 

 

The initial rush of pre-sales before Monday definitely seem to indicate a hardcore fanbase inciting appeal. Not saying the movie isn't going to underperform, but I don't think any of the sub-30 comps are going to hold well throughout the weekend. Snow snort could definitely hurt it, but I've got no clue as to what extent. 

[MaxAggressor]

https://deadline.com/2019/01/the-lego-movie-2-what-men-want-box-office-projection-taraji-p-henson-1202536822/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

Warner Bros.’ The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part hit tracking today with a robust $45M-$55M opening. The sequel to the surprise 2014 movie opens on Feb. 8.

 

 

What Men Want, a twist on the Mel Gibson 2000 comedy What Women Want, is looking at a three-day around $20M. Cold Pursuit is eyeing an opening between $12.5M-$15M; Neeson’s The Commuter last January opened to $13.7M. The Prodigy is being projected between $5M-$6M.

[Eric Atreides]

Even the higher end is just barely above Lego Batman. Not great, Bob, but it's still a month away.

 

Everything else is decent tho

[filmlover]

They probably should’ve made Lego 2 before cranking out spin-offs. All those have done is decrease demand and dilute the brand.

[WrathOfHan]

All that tracking sounds spot on. LEGO is gonna underperform a lot

[YM!]

This makes me sad but it was never a lock to do too much over or even the same as Lego Batman, and likely evitable thanks to the spin-offs burning off demand, WB should’ve done Lego 2 first.

 

Luckily the lack of family friendly films as well as big animation (aside from Spider Verse) will help, however if it gets negative reviews I wouldn’t be surprised at sub $100M DOM.

Edited January 17, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Eric Atreides]

Just now, YourMother the Edgelord said:

This makes me sad but it was never a lock to do too much over or even the same as Lego Batman, and likely evitable thanks to the spin-offs burning off demand, WB should’ve done Lego 2 first.

 

Luckily the lack of family friendly films as well as big animation (aside from Spider Verse) will help, however if it gets negative reviews I wouldn’t be surprised at sub $100M DOM.

How? Even with negative reviews and Dragon 2 weeks later, it would have to open to less than 30M for it to miss 100M.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

How? Even with negative reviews and Dragon 2 weeks later, it would have to open to less than 30M for it to miss 100M.

It all depends on how much burnout the spin-offs have caused.

[DAJK]

I think LEGO and Dragon will be closer than a lot of people think.

 

LEGO - 48/160

Dragon - 42/135

[filmlover]

Also I’m gonna miss the trailer for The Prodigy after it comes out because the jump scare at the end always gets the funniest reactions.

[poweranimals]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

How? Even with negative reviews and Dragon 2 weeks later, it would have to open to less than 30M for it to miss 100M.

What negative reviews?

[Eric Atreides]

2 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

What negative reviews?

I was talking about YourMother's hypothetical about the movie garnering negative reviews

[MrGlass2]

Glass already at the top.

 

Updated by @akvalley: 2019-01-17 16:57:48 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2019-01-17 17:00:00	752	Glass (2019)
2019-01-17 17:00:00	676	Dragon Ball Super Broly
2019-01-17 17:00:00	231	The Upside
2019-01-17 17:00:00	116	Aquaman
2019-01-17 17:00:00	116	Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse

[Poseidon]

57 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Glass already at the top.

Of course. It's having a dragons balls.

[Shivampa]

I am 100% certain Captain Marvel will underperform by lot. It is not going do over 110/270 , from what I have heard movie is not that good also expecting around 70s in RT. 

 

160M by Pro is like turd in the wind. 

 

[Shivampa]

Beside Black Panther and Wonder Woman have already taken the mantle of cultural Phenomena this movie is just getting hype because of Endgame 

[Zakiyyah6]

There is not some limited amount of films that can be made about female Superheroes and Superheroes of color. Captain Marvel will do well, how well depends of how much people take to the marketing and as always, luck. It doesn't need to be a cultural phenomenon to do 350-400+mil. 

[DAJK]

Glass IMAX for 7:00 (PST) has only sold 33 tickets so far

Regular has 58 (in a small auditorium for the 7:00 before moving to the largest at 10:00 for some reason)

 

Dragon Ball is sold out (big auditorium too, 200+)

[HouseOfTheSun]

35 minutes ago, Shivampa said:

Beside Black Panther and Wonder Woman have already taken the mantle of cultural Phenomena this movie is just getting hype because of Endgame 

Aren’t you that guy that got banned from reddit /r/Boxoffice for being a baiting troll?

[Eric Atreides]

58 minutes ago, Shivampa said:

I am 100% certain Captain Marvel will underperform by lot. It is not going do over 110/270 , from what I have heard movie is not that good also expecting around 70s in RT. 

 

160M by Pro is like turd in the wind.