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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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1 hour ago, el sid said:

Pulse today 8:35-8:49 EST:
 

Us: 128/15 minutes – yesterday it were 64/15 (so here too ca. on par with Halloween which had 71/15 on Monday at that time), up exactly 100% from yesterday; Halloween had on Tuesday at that time 112/15, Glass 31/15 and Happy Death Day 2U 17/15 (and that was a Wednesday release).
 

And Pulse today 10:35-10:49 EST:

Us: 197/15 minutes – yesterday it were 122/15, up 62%; Glass (where I have no Tuesday numbers) had 156/15 on Wednesday at that time and Happy Death Day 2U on Tuesday at that time 17/15. Even if Us manages it to only jump 50% from Tuesday to Wednesday (and most movies rather double their sales) it would have twice the presale numbers of Glass (40.3M OW)...

→ at both counting times today huge numbers for Us. So far it's indeed looking like 80M OW are reachable with the only problem that Us is probably a bit more frontloaded than Glass or Halloween but I'm not sure. But therefor its WOM could be better (at least compared to the WOM of Glass) and who says that its presales will slow down from now on...

 

Why would Us be more front-loaded than two franchise movies when it is not one? In addition, its selling more in pre-sales currently when it has been available for pre-sale since Christmas suggests otherwise when it oughta be selling less because of the moving being available for pre-sale for three months. Although Jordan Peele is extremely popular, the movie is still an original property, which generally equates to being based around general moviegoers, so the theories about it having similar sales patterns to fanboy movies is perplexing.  

Edited by PenguinHyphy
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So, I have the preview numbers and prior sales for Us together, and it looks like I was mostly right.  The gap between Halloween and Us last week was mostly related to a catch up in sales, since Us had more pre-sold in the weeks prior.  As of the monday before release the cumulative numbers look like:

  Us Halloween Ratio OW Proj OW
Total Tickets 25386 27307 0.929652 76.221

70.85899

 

The Thursday Preview numbers now look like this 

  Us Halloween Ratio Previews Proj Prev.
Thursday Previews 8964 8927 1.004145 7.7 7.731914

 

These are both plus projections on the numbers coming out last week, and give some backing to Us lining up for a probable 60+ opening, which is outstanding - and way above the initial tracking numbers.

45 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

Why would Us be more front-loaded than two franchise movies when it is not one?

If you look at the ratio of tickets sold in presale between Us and Halloween it looks like Us has sold 92% of the tickets Halloween did up to the same point.  However, Us has actually outsold Halloween in Thursday previews. To measure front-loadedness (if that's a word), we can figure out what the Thursday preview sales would have been if it had only sold as many tickets as Us by applying the presales ratio to the thursday preview tickets (.929 * 8927 = 8299).  Once that is calculated, you can look at the ratio between Us's actual Thursday preview tickets, and the Halloween's expected Thursday previews, and we find that 8964/8299 = 1.08.  So from this estimation Us looks like it may be 8% more frontloaded than Halloween.

 

I have not done this analysis for a large enough set of movies, but the numbers make sense to me, and provide a data driven forecast for the relative OW/PG ratio of Us.

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2 hours ago, EconomySize said:

So, I have the preview numbers and prior sales for Us together, and it looks like I was mostly right.  The gap between Halloween and Us last week was mostly related to a catch up in sales, since Us had more pre-sold in the weeks prior.  As of the monday before release the cumulative numbers look like:

  Us Halloween Ratio OW Proj OW
Total Tickets 25386 27307 0.929652 76.221

70.85899

 

The Thursday Preview numbers now look like this 

  Us Halloween Ratio Previews Proj Prev.
Thursday Previews 8964 8927 1.004145 7.7 7.731914

 

These are both plus projections on the numbers coming out last week, and give some backing to Us lining up for a probable 60+ opening, which is outstanding - and way above the initial tracking numbers.

If you look at the ratio of tickets sold in presale between Us and Halloween it looks like Us has sold 92% of the tickets Halloween did up to the same point.  However, Us has actually outsold Halloween in Thursday previews. To measure front-loadedness (if that's a word), we can figure out what the Thursday preview sales would have been if it had only sold as many tickets as Us by applying the presales ratio to the thursday preview tickets (.929 * 8927 = 8299).  Once that is calculated, you can look at the ratio between Us's actual Thursday preview tickets, and the Halloween's expected Thursday previews, and we find that 8964/8299 = 1.08.  So from this estimation Us looks like it may be 8% more frontloaded than Halloween.

 

I have not done this analysis for a large enough set of movies, but the numbers make sense to me, and provide a data driven forecast for the relative OW/PG ratio of Us.

So the tricky thing here is, yes Us has a slightly higher Thursday % than Halloween. Halloween’s Friday tickets are higher than Us, but Us also leads Sat/Sun advanced sales. Difficult to project frontloadedness imo 

Edited by The Fast and the Furiosa
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2 hours ago, EconomySize said:

So, I have the preview numbers and prior sales for Us together, and it looks like I was mostly right.  The gap between Halloween and Us last week was mostly related to a catch up in sales, since Us had more pre-sold in the weeks prior.  As of the monday before release the cumulative numbers look like:

  Us Halloween Ratio OW Proj OW
Total Tickets 25386 27307 0.929652 76.221

70.85899

 

The Thursday Preview numbers now look like this 

  Us Halloween Ratio Previews Proj Prev.
Thursday Previews 8964 8927 1.004145 7.7 7.731914

 

These are both plus projections on the numbers coming out last week, and give some backing to Us lining up for a probable 60+ opening, which is outstanding - and way above the initial tracking numbers.

If you look at the ratio of tickets sold in presale between Us and Halloween it looks like Us has sold 92% of the tickets Halloween did up to the same point.  However, Us has actually outsold Halloween in Thursday previews. To measure front-loadedness (if that's a word), we can figure out what the Thursday preview sales would have been if it had only sold as many tickets as Us by applying the presales ratio to the thursday preview tickets (.929 * 8927 = 8299).  Once that is calculated, you can look at the ratio between Us's actual Thursday preview tickets, and the Halloween's expected Thursday previews, and we find that 8964/8299 = 1.08.  So from this estimation Us looks like it may be 8% more frontloaded than Halloween.

 

I have not done this analysis for a large enough set of movies, but the numbers make sense to me, and provide a data driven forecast for the relative OW/PG ratio of Us.

 I am stating that if Us has a higher or similar Thursday previews than Halloween, then the movie oughta have a higher opening weekend than Halloween because one is a fanboy property while the other is an original property, which are historically more prone to having walk up business. If Us really does have eight million or more in Thursday previews, then it will probably going to have an opening Friday bigger than Halloween's $33,000,000 because there is not any precedent of an original horror movie's Thursday night previews being Halloween's 24% or more of the opening Friday. According to Deadline, 90%+ of Get Out's business was from walk ups, so I really do not see the rationale of Us being more front-loaded than fanboy/franchise properties, which are historically more front-loaded than original properties. 

Edited by PenguinHyphy
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4 hours ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

So the tricky thing here is, yes Us has a slightly higher Thursday % than Halloween. Halloween’s Friday tickets are higher than Us, but Us also leads Sat/Sun advanced sales. Difficult to project frontloadedness imo 

I hadn't checked that at all, and yeah, that's true and a little surprising (at least to me).  I agree, frontloadedness is pretty difficult to project, and those numbers are significantly higher on the SAT/SUN, so you are 100%. Who the hell knows.

 

I think we can toss out that part of the analysis, and just figure that if Us can keep pace with Halloween sales this week, then we can project a 60+ opening with room on the upside.

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My multiplex is booking Us for 3 theaters all day that becomes a total of 7 by the end of the night for the weekend. Other theaters around here are giving it similar blockbuster-esque treatment. Yeah, this thing is definitely primed to explode.

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Fandango App Monday Tues Wed Thursday

A Quiet Place 2,177 4,003 10,665  

Deadpool 2 23,134 28,896 41,212  

The Nun 2,082 5,938 13,806 28,881

Venom 13,602 13,818 20,867 31,569

Halloween 9,563 12,890 21,600 36,126

Glass 3,106 3,978 6,478 17,810

Us 10,742 13,597    

 

340% of A Quiet Place (170.5M)

47% of Deadpool 2 (59M)

229% of The Nun (123.2M)

98% of Venom (78.9M)

105% of Halloween (80.4M)

342% of Glass (137.8M)

 

Yep, still killing it. 70M+ is more and more likely, arguably even 80M+. Good stuff

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Pulse 8:35-8:49 EST:

Us: 230/15 minutes – yesterday it were 128/15, up 80% from yesterday; Halloween had 158/15 at that time (so now Us leads more comfortable than yesterday), Glass 113/15, Happy Death Day 2U 36/15 and Escape Room on Thursday also 36/15.
 

And Pulse 10:50-11:04 EST:

Us: 386/15 minutes – yesterday it were 197/15, up 96%; Glass had 156/15 at that time, Happy Death Day 2U 64/15 and Escape Room at the same time but on Thursday 80/15.

 

All I can say is that Us is also today on course for a really big weekend number.

MT:
#1 CM 42.4%
#2 Five Feet Apart 8.3%
#3 Wonder Park 7.9%
#4 Us 7.5% - Halloween had ca. 12.5% at that time, The Nun appeared a few hours later on Wednesday with 5.5% and Glass several hours later with also 5.5%
#5 HtTYD 6.2%

Edited by el sid
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5 minutes ago, el sid said:

Pulse 8:35-8:49 EST:

Us: 230/15 minutes – yesterday it were 128/15, up 80% from yesterday; Halloween had 158/15 at that time (so now Us leads more comfortable than yesterday), Glass 112/15, Happy Death Day 2U 36/15 and Escape Room on Thursday also 36/15.
 

And Pulse 10:50-11:04 EST:

Us: 386/15 minutes – yesterday it were 197/15, up 96%; Glass had 156/15 at that time, Happy Death Day 2U 64/15 and Escape Room at the same time but on Thursday 80/15.

 

All I can say is that Us is also today on course for a really big weekend number.

 At this point, what would you say is ‘Us’ shot at $100m opening weekend? 

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5 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Wrong. Hallloween had one-week-only IMAX, just like Us will.

He's talking about OW, which is true. First Man had IMAX screens on Halloween's OW. It wasn't until weekend two that Halloween got IMAX

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7 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 At this point, what would you say is ‘Us’ shot at $100m opening weekend? 

It's not impossible of course but it would surprise me. I mean, to reach 100M it would have to triple the result of Get Out which was (back then) already a surprisingly strong start. Personally I hope for 80M at the moment.

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