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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Just now, VenomXXR said:

 

12 days before Infinity War released, the Fandango number was 9314. So far, EG has been ahead in equivalent sales by at least 80% every day. Today though, it does not look like EG will be able to match this number. I think 50% is going to be the max (50% over 9314 = 13971). EG is currently at 7414 with 7 updates to go. 

 

still very good though this is probably the last week when endgame will be normal crazy next week the week of release then OH BOY  i still find it remarkable though that endgame with W WAY BIGGER launch that iw still continues to blow it out of the water every day

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So is $300M+ for the weekend now becoming a distinct possibility to more than a few people here? 

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12 minutes ago, john2000 said:

still very good though this is probably the last week when endgame will be normal crazy next week the week of release then OH BOY  i still find it remarkable though that endgame with W WAY BIGGER launch that iw still continues to blow it out of the water every day

 

I'm very curious how these last few days look. Endgame is already so far ahead of IW that by Tuesday (10 days before OD) it will surpass what IW's Fandango Pulse numbers THROUGH opening day Friday.

 

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2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

So is $300M+ for the weekend now becoming a distinct possibility to more than a few people here? 

 

It is, but I'm still not on that wagon yet. I believe previews is going over $60m and Friday will be over $70m, the question is how much. Realistically, I think we need a full Friday of at least $135m for a $300m opening to happen. 

 

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8 minutes ago, JB33 said:

So is $300M+ for the weekend now becoming a distinct possibility to more than a few people here? 

Not me. I don't want to set my expectations too high and disappoint myself.

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16 minutes ago, JB33 said:

So is $300M+ for the weekend now becoming a distinct possibility to more than a few people here? 

Depends on frontloaded the Thursday/Friday is. I think it has a chance and if any movie is doing it’s this one but I’m more in the $270M-$280M range.

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42 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

12 days before Infinity War released, the Fandango number was 9314. So far, EG has been ahead in equivalent sales by at least 80% every day. Today though, it does not look like EG will be able to match this number. I think 50% is going to be the max (50% over 9314 = 13971). EG is currently at 7414 with 7 updates to go. 

 

I think it will get to around 16,000-17,000 by the end of the day. It has been tracking almost identical to last weekend so far, and there was a big pick-up towards the end of Sunday last week. If it ends at 17,000, it won't be far off a 2 multiplier again (around 1.8). I don't know how long it will keep that up over the next few days though.

 

  Individual Cumulative
  04/07/19 04/14/19 04/07/19 04/14/19
00:00:00 1,008 754 1,008 754
01:00:00 440 507 1,448 1,261
02:00:00 391 286 1,839 1,547
03:00:00 218 160 2,057 1,707
04:00:00 118 114 2,175 1,821
05:00:00 116 71 2,291 1,892
06:00:00 186 169 2,477 2,061
07:00:00 457 370 2,934 2,431
08:00:00 561 552 3,495 2,983
09:00:00 515 393 4,010 3,376
10:00:00 438 484 4,448 3,860
11:00:00 454 554 4,902 4,414
12:00:00 514 546 5,416 4,960
13:00:00 543 580 5,959 5,540
14:00:00 530 622 6,489 6,162
15:00:00 581 537 7,070 6,699
16:00:00 631 782 7,701 7,481
17:00:00 692 785 8,393 8,266
18:00:00 884 0 9,277  
19:00:00 1,152 0 10,429  
20:00:00 1,026 0 11,455  
21:00:00 1,631 0 13,086  
22:00:00 1,444 0 14,530  
23:00:00 1,607 0 16,137  
Edited by stfletch
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IMO 265 is floor. Below that, I will be disappointed. 265-275 is default expectations. 275-290 I will be happy (with one condition, FSS trend is healthy). Above 290 its all good.

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11 minutes ago, stfletch said:

I think it will get to around 16,000-17,000 by the end of the day. It has been tracking almost identical to last weekend so far, and there was a big pick-up towards the end of Sunday last week. If it ends at 17,000, it won't be far off a 2 multiplier again (around 1.8). I don't know how long it will keep that up over the next few days though.

 

If it just stays pace with IW starting tomorrow, I'll be happy. EG would finish at nearly 1 million, compared to IW @ 623k. 

 

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41 minutes ago, JB33 said:

So is $300M+ for the weekend now becoming a distinct possibility to more than a few people here? 

Distinct possibility? Yeah, I’d say so. If being deadly serious I still can’t give it more than like a 30% chance, but that’s up from ~10% at start of year.

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Detective Pikachu is a family movie, I totally expected presales to be much lower than they are. 

 

I am still optimistic about 200M+ OW. 

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1 hour ago, JB33 said:

LOL! That's like saying "Can't wait for the weekend to go away so I can get to Monday". DP box office is going to be booooring compared to EG OW.

The one interesting thing about Pikachu is that its a wildcard. We all know Endgame is going to be enormous, the only question is how enormous. Meanwhile, Pikachu has predictions ranging from well over a billion (I've seen Jurassic World numbers thrown around unironically) to under 500M. I'm super curious to see how it shakes out.

Edited by dakus
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@JB33

 

In all seriousness, I think the biggest factors for Endgame reaching 300M is how frontloaded the movie will be, as well as the massive jump from 257 to 300.

 

Looking at the latter, Endgame would have to increase at ~42M to reach 300M on OW.

 

When IW broke TFA's record, it was above it by about ~10M with about 3 years of ticket price inflation. When TFA broke JW, it was a jump of about ~39M...in only a few months, but we'll get to that. When Avengers broke DH2's record, it was a jump of about ~38M...in just under a year, but we'll get to that too. And then DH2 beat TDK's record with a jump of about ~11M after 3 years of ticket price inflation.

 

So already, none of these movies jumped over 42M. And while some of these movies broke records after a few months, both cases, Avengers especially, had certain factors going for them. TFA obviously beat JW, because it was one of the most anticipated movies of all time. But the one thing Avengers had going for it was it being shiny and new compared to Potter. DH2 was super frontloaded on its OW (-53% drop on Saturday, even taking out midnight previews the movie still dropped from Saturday by quite a bit), because of the huge fan rush as the final movie, an "end of an era" if you will. Avengers didn't have that issue, because it was still seen as a "new thing" to people.

 

Endgame's playing almost the exact same playbook as DH2 (minus the fact that Fantastic Beasts didn't come out two months later, but I digress), and while this won't be as frontloaded as DH2, I feel like it's almost certain it will be one of the most frontloaded MCU movies. If it follows Ant-Man 2's OW/OD ratio, the lowest of the bunch, it would need about 133.4M for its OD to reach that mark. That's about 14.3M more than TFA's OD. I guess that's not totally impossible with around 4 years of inflation, but it still seems like a big jump to me. Even TFA adjusted to 2018 inflation would only be 124.7M. It probably won't be as frontloaded as AMatW (although there's still a decent chance it could go below even that), but no matter what the multiplier, that OD really matters here.

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Looking at raw $ jumps instead of % seems weird. TA and TFA % jumps should both be sufficient. And I think

5 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

had certain factors going for them

Applies to Endgame at least as much as TA or TFA. Which is not to say that 300 will happen, just... with the “look at previous record breakers” approach, the history to support it is there.

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4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Endgame's playing almost the exact same playbook as DH2 (minus the fact that Fantastic Beasts didn't come out two months later, but I digress), and while this won't be as frontloaded as DH2, I feel like it's almost certain it will be one of the most frontloaded MCU movies. If it follows Ant-Man 2's OW/OD ratio, the lowest of the bunch, it would need about 133.4M for its OD to reach that mark. That's about 14.3M more than TFA's OD. I guess that's not totally impossible with around 4 years of inflation, but it still seems like a big jump to me. Even TFA adjusted to 2018 inflation would only be 124.7M. It probably won't be as frontloaded as AMatW (although there's still a decent chance it could go below even that), but no matter what the multiplier, that OD really matters here.

 

I believe your $133.4m number is well within reach. 

Consider that IW only beat the true Friday record by 6% while the Saturday record by 17%, I think there is a lot of room to improve the Friday numbers. If EG can beat Jurassic World's Friday number by the same % that IW did it's Saturday number, we're looking at a $75m true Friday. TFA's previews numbers are a beast, but with about 350 more theaters than TFA and 7% ticket inflation coupled with the insane presales we're already seeing, I think $60m+ is in the cards. 

 

All that being said, I still wouldn't bet money on $300m. I would bet money on $280m though. 

 

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Yeah, IW’s Sat and Sun were batshit but there was some slack in its Thurs and pure Fri figures. AEG will get there if and only if it can play like SW Thurs and Fri but Marvel Sat and Sun — which is a tall ask, but 🤷‍♂️ 

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I have no idea how important this will be, but literally days before IW came out, moviepass got rid of its repeat viewing policy therefore anyone who wanted to watch the film twice HAD to pay. A-list allows as many repeat viewings as you want. Not sure if membership is significant enough to affect anything. 

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5 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

I have no idea how important this will be, but literally days before IW came out, moviepass got rid of its repeat viewing policy therefore anyone who wanted to watch the film twice HAD to pay. A-list allows as many repeat viewings as you want. Not sure if membership is significant enough to affect anything. 

The 2 main subscriber bases left - AMC and Cinemark (Sinemia doesn't release subscriber counts, so it can't be huge) have 740K+ and 560k+ members, respectively...so not as big together as MoviePass's 3M number, but it's starting to get there...

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11 hours ago, cax16 said:

 

April 4th

 

6:15pm Dbox 3d - 141/306

6:45pm Dbox Avx 3d- 286/336

7:15pm Avx 3d - 280/392

7:45 regular 2d -233/345

10:15pm Dbox 3d - 142/306

10:45pm Dbox Avx 3d - 237/336

11:15pm Avx 3d - 119/392

 

 

 

 

April 14, endgame 

 

6:15pm Dbox 3d - 230/306

6:45pm Dbox Avx 3d - 296/336

7:15pm Avx 3d - 290/392

7:45 regular 2d - 260/345

10:15 Dbox 3d -  165/306

10:45pm Dbox Avx 3d - 296/336

11:15 Avx 3d - 242/392

 

Also, my theatre has added the following,

 

Regular 3d theatre showtimes at 6:30/10:30pm

 

Regular 2d theatre showtimes at 7:00/11:00pm

 

These are not showing up as reserved seating so I can’t track them yet. I will do a final number on Thursday before I go to my show at 6:45pm.

 

 

Another Canadian I see, nice.

 

I noticed that the premium screens are the ones that are sold out. The regular 3D/2D is not nearly as sold out, but I expect that sales will pick up over the next few days for standard screens...

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Thanks for the responses guys! 

 

Yeah, I think the unreal presales points to a higher possibility of a $300M+ weekend than I would have thought before - in fact, until not long ago I gave it no shot whatsoever - but I still wouldn't predict it at this point. I like the $280M number.

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