The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[FlashMaster659]

Fandango 24 hr tracker has Endgame at 13.8k with 4 updates to go

[Cap]

1 hour ago, Rebeccas said:

I have no idea how important this will be, but literally days before IW came out, moviepass got rid of its repeat viewing policy therefore anyone who wanted to watch the film twice HAD to pay. A-list allows as many repeat viewings as you want. Not sure if membership is significant enough to affect anything. 

That was the saddest day ever.  I was so prepared for my month of the daily showing.

[XXR vs XXR]

14 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Fandango 24 hr tracker has Endgame at 13.8k with 4 updates to go

 

Definitely not hitting that 80% over IW rate today. Sitting at 10202 with 3 updates on the hourly tracker. Might hit 50% over.

 

[FlashMaster659]

Is 23:00 the last update of the day or is it 00:00?

[XXR vs XXR]

9 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Is 23:00 the last update of the day or is it 00:00?

23:00

[stfletch]

28 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Fandango 24 hr tracker has Endgame at 13.8k with 4 updates to go

Up to 14,708 now:

1	18.461%	13084	Shazam!
2	18.393%	13036	Avengers Endgame (2019)
3	12.016%	8516	Little (2019)
4	08.024%	5687	Captain Marvel (2019)
5	06.314%	4475	Pet Sematary (2019)
6	06.262%	4438	Hellboy (2019)
7	05.428%	3847	Dumbo (2019)
8	05.298%	3755	Us (2019)
9	04.185%	2966	Missing Link (2019)
10	02.579%	1828	After (2019)
11	02.322%	1646	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
12	01.580%	1120	The Best of Enemies

50	00.034%	24	Avengers Endgame Opening Night Fan Event (2019)

163	00.001%	1	Avengers Endgame Breakfast Event

205	00.001%	1	Marvel Studios 22 Movie Marathon

[XXR vs XXR]

6 minutes ago, stfletch said:

Up to 14,708 now:

1	18.461%	13084	Shazam!
2	18.393%	13036	Avengers Endgame (2019)
3	12.016%	8516	Little (2019)
4	08.024%	5687	Captain Marvel (2019)
5	06.314%	4475	Pet Sematary (2019)
6	06.262%	4438	Hellboy (2019)
7	05.428%	3847	Dumbo (2019)
8	05.298%	3755	Us (2019)
9	04.185%	2966	Missing Link (2019)
10	02.579%	1828	After (2019)
11	02.322%	1646	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
12	01.580%	1120	The Best of Enemies

50	00.034%	24	Avengers Endgame Opening Night Fan Event (2019)

163	00.001%	1	Avengers Endgame Breakfast Event

205	00.001%	1	Marvel Studios 22 Movie Marathon

 

3 updates left. The last 3 updates yesterday accounted for 2563 tickets. Would be nice to get 3500 out of the last 3 tonight, would put us at 15.7k for Sunday 

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

 

3 updates left. The last 3 updates yesterday accounted for 2563 tickets. Would be nice to get 3500 out of the last 3 tonight, would put us at 15.7k for Sunday 

 

 

 

Of note though, the 18:00 - 19:00 - 20:00 updates yesterday accounted for 1413 subsets. The same times tonight account for 3294. I doubt the same increase rate holds up in the final 3 hours, as it would be nearly 6k. We will see though. 

 

[DeeCee]

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[stfletch]

AIW Date	Days to Open	AIW Tickets	AEG Date	AEG Tickets	AEG/AIW	Notes
2018-03-16	41	29,410
2018-03-17	40	16,237
2018-03-18	39	10,631
2018-03-19	38	14,574
2018-03-20	37	9,366
2018-03-21	36	8,281
2018-03-22	35	6,101
2018-03-23	34	3,753
2018-03-24	33	2,426
2018-03-25	32	3,655
2018-03-26	31	5,191
2018-03-27	30	4,647
2018-03-28	29	4,241
2018-03-29	28	3,060
2018-03-30	27	2,134
2018-03-31	26	2,471
2018-04-01	25	3,662
2018-04-02	24	7,257
2018-04-03	23	6,866	2019-04-02	330,000		Pulse down entire day*
2018-04-04	22	7,917	2019-04-03	40,000		Pulse down until around 7pm CST**
2018-04-05	21	5,692	2019-04-04	30,292	5.3
2018-04-06	20	3,618	2019-04-05	17,428	4.8
2018-04-07	19	3,383	2019-04-06	11,697	3.5
2018-04-08	18	6,363	2019-04-07	16,137	2.5
2018-04-09	17	10,828	2019-04-08	28,219	2.6
2018-04-10	16	8,670	2019-04-09	24,701	2.8
2018-04-11	15	13,960	2019-04-10	25,617	1.8
2018-04-12	14	13,332	2019-04-11	23,680	1.8
2018-04-13	13	7,614	2019-04-12	15,554	2.0
2018-04-14	12	5,602	2019-04-13	11,720	2.1
2018-04-15	11	9,314	2019-04-14	17,436	1.9
2018-04-16	10	18,403
2018-04-17	9	19,431
2018-04-18	8	23,790
2018-04-19	7	18,788
2018-04-20	6	14,281
2018-04-21	5	12,368
2018-04-22	4	27,180
2018-04-23	3	48,861
2018-04-24	2	55,376
2018-04-25	1	68,137
2018-04-26	0	76,734
* Estimate based on using Fandango Comment that AEG outsold AIW 5:1 in first week
**Estimate based on the fact we had about 1/4th of the days data

Edited April 15, 2019 by stfletch

[MattW]

I didn't think I'd get quoted for my meager presales report, so here's a bit of a more in depth one at just one theater.  I think it's a 14 screen theater, and currently there are 9 showtimes for Thursday night, with only one IMAX showtime at 10pm, so either the 6pm time is reserved by a very prestigious group or they're waiting to post that showtime bc it'll sell out instantly.

 

	sold	capacity	%
	427	482	87
	233	277	84
	179	250	71
	111	178	62
imax	548	616	89
	114	210	54
	85	225	38
	304	482	63
	10	277	3
Total	2011	2997	67

 

I must have been counting the imax seats when there was a 3d showing bc counting now there are 616 total seats in there.  At normal adult prices this currently represents $22,417.78 but many of the tickets will seniors and many will be children, hard to estimate what the true value will be, but even if every ticket was senior/child priced it would still be $15,962.47 and if you multiplied that by 3800* theaters that would be a total Thursday preview of $60m.  

 

Obviously a bigger theater like this one is not representative, but still, it's gonna be big.  After presales started I was thinking 45-55, now I'm thinking it could land more in the 50-60m range Thursday night.

 

*TDKR had 3700 locations for midnights, HPDH2 had 3800, the other big movies didn't have a theater count anywhere but that's probably the upper limit for preview showings like this.

Edited April 15, 2019 by MattW

[XXR vs XXR]

12,708 with 2 more updates. Also of note, at the 21:00 update the 20:00 update jumped another 500. 

Feel like 15,000 is almost certain at this point and maybe 16,000 is possible. 

[Ledmonkey96]

As of 4/11/19	Tickets Sold	Total Tickets	% sold
Thursday	828	870	95.17%
Friday	1039	1386	74.96%
Saturday	1116	1647	67.76%
Sunday	691	1647	41.96%
Total	3674	5550	66.20%

 

 

Sold another 54 today, definitely slowing down

Edited April 15, 2019 by Ledmonkey96

[Legion Again]

On 4/13/2019 at 8:12 PM, Thanos Legion said:

17:00 Pacific 4/13/2019 (End of Sat)

1	22.3%	Shazam!
2	10.4%	Little
3	9.9%	Dumbo
4	9.8%	Avengers: Endgame
5	9.1%	Captain Marvel

All the way down to #4, poor Flopgame   

 

On a more serious note we see yesterday’s trend of only 1/4 new openers continue, but rounding out the top 5 is now Captain Marvel again. Perhaps it will see a strong Saturday bump.

17:00 Pacific 4/14/2019 (End of Sun)   

1	20.4%	Shazam!
2	13.5%	Avengers: Endgame
3	9.8%	Dumbo
4	9.5%	Little
5	8.8%	Captain Marvel   

 

This is it. The final day Endgame relinquishes the crown for probably over a month. I find myself wondering it CM can remain in the top 5 until AEG releases as well — could be above Little and Dumbo in time for Breakthorugh and La Llorona?

[Porthos]

I think there's one thing we should probably remember when it comes to the "double the presales in the week of" rule of thumb.

 

A decent part of that is theaters actually putting up expanded slates.  Even for the larger films, the showings will go up quite a bit on the MTW of release week.

 

In EG's case a lot of that expansion has already happened.  Not all of it.  Not nearly all of it.  But it is a factor that should be kept in mind, I think.

 

Like, take Infinity War locally.  IW was at 118 showings locally this far away from it's release. It finished at 182 showings.  Endgame, on the other hand is at 217 showings USING the same theater metric. 

 

Now don't get me wrong, there's still room to expand, so there will be a burst.  Just not a 54% jump in showings.

Edited April 15, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

I forget who it was up brought up walkup disappointment up-thread.  @captainwondyful, maybe?  Anyway about those poor fools who try to walkup and purchase a ticket for Endgame on Thur (and possibly Fri), and find they either get a shittastic seat or no film at all, I do wonder how many of them will decide to go see Captain Marvel as something of a backup plan.

 

I mean, they'll be in a Marvel mood.  And, sure, many of these folks probably would have already seen it.  But I have to think if any films are going to, CM along with perhaps Shazam! are going to be the films to most benefit from day-of spillover.  I realize many folks might just go home, but I still wonder if the water spilling over the dam will 'help' them at all.

 

I have to put 'help' in semi-scare quotes since they're getting decimated otherwise.  But of all the films that are going to get bugsplatted by EG, maybe they'll be bugsplatted to a lesser degree.  

Edited April 15, 2019 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

I think that’s a very real dynamic, and part of why Black Panther dropped only 4% on IW weekend despite -15% in TC.

Edited April 15, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[XXR vs XXR]

There can be no realistic expectation to double presales this time. I just want it to match what IW did in its lead up week.

[Nero]

5 hours ago, James said:

Can't wait for all this Endgame thing to go away so we can properly track Pika.

Use burnol... 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, VenomXXR said:

12,708 with 2 more updates. Also of note, at the 21:00 update the 20:00 update jumped another 500. 

Feel like 15,000 is almost certain at this point and maybe 16,000 is possible. 

 

14,450 before the final update. Added about 300 to 21:00 when 22:00 updated.

 

70% over IW equivalent looks likely.