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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Cap Summer Tentpole

Cap

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Porthos said:
 
 
 
12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I forget who it was up brought up walkup disappointment up-thread.  @captainwondyful, maybe? 

My friend and I were JUST talking about this.  She updated me that her 12 Screen Theater near State College has already sold out their 6PM and 10PM End Game showings in the big auditorium.  They're now down to a 6PM and 10PM in the small auditorium.  The theater's not reserved seating, you're gonna have a lot of people walking up to no showings.  

 

Quote

Anyway about those poor fools who try to walkup

 

420c.gif

 

As you and I have discussed before, after a decade of San Diego Comic Con, I have very little pity for people who didn't know you needed to be on the ticketing website at 7:45AM on April 2 to get tickets to Thursday OW.  That is just the fandom world we're living in.

 

That said, I have immense sympathy for the thousands of movie theater workers who will be dealing with people all weekend who don't know that.

 

Quote
 
 
 
Quote

I do wonder how many of them will decide to go see Captain Marvel as something of a backup plan. I mean, they'll be in a Marvel mood. 

I do think this is possible.  The other possibility is: 

 

 

85% Market Share locked?

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted 
RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	22.340%	15507	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	17.197%	11937	Shazam!
3	11.228%	7794	Little (2019)
4	07.553%	5243	Captain Marvel (2019)
5	05.941%	4124	Hellboy (2019)
6	05.773%	4007	Pet Sematary (2019)
7	05.209%	3616	Dumbo (2019)
8	04.669%	3241	Us (2019)
9	04.110%	2853	Missing Link (2019)
10	02.739%	1901	Avengers Endgame  (2019)

 

Comfortably at top in Fandango but Movie Tickets is lagging behind Shazam a bit.

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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: 

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	22.340%	15507	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	17.197%	11937	Shazam!
3	11.228%	7794	Little (2019)
4	07.553%	5243	Captain Marvel (2019)
5	05.941%	4124	Hellboy (2019)
6	05.773%	4007	Pet Sematary (2019)
7	05.209%	3616	Dumbo (2019)
8	04.669%	3241	Us (2019)
9	04.110%	2853	Missing Link (2019)
10	02.739%	1901	Avengers Endgame  (2019)

 

Comfortably at top in Fandango but Movie Tickets is lagging behind Shazam a bit.

MT is friendlier to young skewing movies, but perhaps more importantly hasn’t updated since 5 hours ago.

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted (edited)

So 60% of Shazam during FSS seems like a good number for Endgame. That would be $15mn. Say round down to $12mn.

 

$75-77mn Approx till Thursday + $12mn FSS. $87-89mn total.

 

Crossed The Last Jedi pre-sales. Only behind TFA now. Guess @Deep Wang number will be close to $34mn now.

Edited by Charlie Jatinder
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

Avengers: Endgame Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

11

243

5975

24576

75.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                  109

 

Infinity War Comps:

1.9816x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 11 days before release [Infinity War has 41 days of pre−sales compared to Endgame's 23 days]
1.1851x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night.
1.0526x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night at the exact same theaters in town.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally.

 

IW (T-11):          57 tickets sold that day  [3 sellouts/118 showings   | 3422/11295 seats left  | 69.70% sold]      

EG (adj*):             92 tickets sold today      [11 sellouts/243 showings | 4532/20133 seats left  | 77.49% sold]

EG (exact**):          79 tickets sold today      [11 sellouts/217 showings | 4063/17920 seats left  | 77.33% sold]

---

IW (final):   13164 tickets sold at stop [59 sellouts/182 showings | 1195/15159 seats left  | 86.64% sold]

EG (adj*):   15601 tickets sold so far   [11 sellouts/243 showings | 4532/20133 seats left  | 77.49% sold]

EG (exact**):  13857 tickets sold so far   [11 sellouts/217 showings | 4063/17920 seats left  | 77.33% sold]

----

* EG (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

** EG (exact) is the number of tickets sold at the EXACT same theaters in town for a pure like-for-like comparison.

 

OTHER COMPS:

Spoiler

Captain Marvel:

Spoiler

 

4.5535x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel 11 days before release. [CM had 58 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
1.7626x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel at stop of tracking..

 

CM (T-11):         82 tickets sold that day [2 sellouts/87 showings    | 6845/10930 seats left  | 37.37% sold]

CM (final):    10553 tickets sold at stop   [8 sellouts/216 showings  | 9439/19992 seats left  | 52.79% sold]

EG:               18601 tickets sold so far   [11 sellouts/243 showings  | 5975/24576 seats left | 75.69% sold]

NOTE: I have the same sources of tracking info for Endgame as I did Captain Marvel, so the unadjusted comp is being used here, even though Endgame is playing in a couple more theaters locally. Check the main stat box for the number of tickets sold today if you want to compare it to the number of tickets Captain Marvel sold on its second day.

 

Selected Other Comps (T-11 and Final):

Spoiler

5.0603x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 11 days before release. [BP had 30 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
5.5559x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 11 days before release. [DP2 had 29 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
4.5831x as many tickets sold as Solo 11 days before release. [Solo had 30 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
9.7142x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 11 days before release. [JW2 had 22 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]

 

BP (T-11)              78 tickets sold that day [1 sellout/68 showings      |  3732/6815 seats left    | 45.24% sold]

DP2 (T-11)            82 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/104 showings  | 10227/12969 seats left | 21.65% sold] 

Solo (T-11)           48 tickets sold that day [1 sellout/87 showings      |  5944/9348 seats left    | 36.41% sold]

JW2 (T-11)            76 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/97 showings     |  8507/10113 seats left  | 15.88% sold]

EG(adj*) (T-11)       92 tickets sold today     [11 sellouts/243 showings | 4532/20133 seats left  | 77.49% sold]

*EM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

----

 

1.9251x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at stop of tracking.
1.9182x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at stop of tracking.
2.6949x as many tickets sold as Solo at stop of tracking.
2.5050x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally.

 

BP (final):     8104 tickets sold at stop [26 sellouts/136 showings |  3377/11481 seats left  | 70.59% sold]

DP2 (final):   8133 tickets sold at stop [3 sellouts/169 showings   |  8357/16490 seats left  | 49.32% sold]

Solo (final):  5789 tickets sold at stop [5 sellouts/143 showings    |  7732/13521 seats left | 42.81% sold]

JW2 (final):   6228 tickets sold at stop [1 sellout/147 showings     |  7487/13715 seats left | 45.41% sold]

EG (adj*):   15601 tickets sold so far   [11 sellouts/243 showings | 4532/20133 seats left  | 77.49% sold]

*EM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

 

 

WEEKEND INFO: (all IW information is for 13 days before release)

Fri:   1 sellout/346 showings (+0/+8)    [IW: 0/214]

Sat:  0 sellouts/342 showings                [IW: 0/215]

Sun: 0 sellouts/328 showings                [IW: 0/209]

 

Sellouts:  11/243 [2D: 11/195  | 3D: 0/44]

 

Breakdown of seat information in spoiler box:

Spoiler

Reserved seating information: 214 screens [IW: 84 reserved seating info at same point in time]

 

100%:    11* [nc]  [IW: 3]

90-95%: 49  [+1] [IW: 10]

80-89%: 56  [-1]  [IW: 19]

70-79%: 32  [+2] [IW: 18]

60-69%: 23  [-2]  [IW: 15]

50-59%: 11  [nc]  [IW: 5]

40-49%:   6  [+2] [IW: 6]

30-39%:   5  [-1]  [IW: 3]

20-29%:   7  [-2]  [IW: 3]

10-19%:   7  [+1]  [IW: 2]

0-9%:       8  [-1]  [IW: 0]

 

* includes two sellouts from non-reserved seating showings

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Avengers: Endgame Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

11

243

5975

24576

75.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                  109

 

Infinity War Comps:

1.9816x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 11 days before release [Infinity War has 41 days of pre−sales compared to Endgame's 23 days]
1.1851x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night.
1.0526x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night at the exact same theaters in town.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally.

 

IW (T-11):          57 tickets sold that day  [3 sellouts/118 showings   | 3422/11295 seats left  | 69.70% sold]      

EG (adj*):             92 tickets sold today      [11 sellouts/243 showings | 4532/20133 seats left  | 77.49% sold]

EG (exact**):          79 tickets sold today      [11 sellouts/217 showings | 4063/17920 seats left  | 77.33% sold]

---

IW (final):   13164 tickets sold at stop [59 sellouts/182 showings | 1195/15159 seats left  | 86.64% sold]

EG (adj*):   15601 tickets sold so far   [11 sellouts/243 showings | 4532/20133 seats left  | 77.49% sold]

EG (exact**):  13857 tickets sold so far   [11 sellouts/217 showings | 4063/17920 seats left  | 77.33% sold]

----

* EG (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

** EG (exact) is the number of tickets sold at the EXACT same theaters in town for a pure like-for-like comparison.

 

OTHER COMPS:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

WEEKEND INFO: (all IW information is for 13 days before release)

Fri:   1 sellout/346 showings (+0/+8)    [IW: 0/214]

Sat:  0 sellouts/342 showings                [IW: 0/215]

Sun: 0 sellouts/328 showings                [IW: 0/209]

 

Sellouts:  11/243 [2D: 11/195  | 3D: 0/44]

 

Breakdown of seat information in spoiler box:

  Reveal hidden contents

The fact that it is selling IW every day is mindblowing. Remember you did a post during CM, that how great was IW run post opening few days of pre-sales.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

Detective Pikachu Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

72

7726

8009

3.53%

 

Total Showings Added Since Thr:           3

Total Seats Added Since Thr:              312

Total Seats Sold SInce Thr:                   72

 

I don't have any good comps like Incredibles 2, so these will have to do.  Use with caution:

 

.2284x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after five days of pre-sales.

.2362x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald after five days of pre-sales.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

JW2 (day 3-5)             280  tickets sold in that time period [0 sellouts/97 showings     |   9058/10113 seats left  | 10.43% sold]

Pika (JW adj)* (day 3-5)     52 tickets sold in that time period [0 sellouts/72 showings     |    6721/6962 seats left    |  3.46% sold]

FB2 (day 3-5)             231 tickets sold in that time period [0 sellouts/94 showings     |  12340/13377 seats left  |  7.75% sold] 

Pika (FBadj)** (day 3-5)    54 tickets sold in that time period [0 sellouts/72 showings     |    7230/7475 seats left     |  3.28% sold]    

*  Pika (JW adj) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

**Pika (FB adj) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

 

====

 

Next Update: Thursday Night (4/18).

 

Starting Thur, comps will shift to T-21 days and counting instead of 'x days of pre-sales'

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Mulder Global Phenomenon

Mulder

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Detective Pikachu Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

72

7726

8009

3.53%

 

Total Showings Added Since Thr:           3

Total Seats Added Since Thr:              312

Total Seats Sold SInce Thr:                   72

 

I don't have any good comps like Incredibles 2, so these will have to do.  Use with caution:

 

.2284x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after five days of pre-sales.

.2362x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald after five days of pre-sales.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

JW2 (day 3-5)             280  tickets sold in that time period [0 sellouts/97 showings     |   9058/10113 seats left  | 10.43% sold]

Pika (JW adj)* (day 3-5)     52 tickets sold in that time period [0 sellouts/72 showings     |    6721/6962 seats left    |  3.46% sold]

FB2 (day 3-5)             231 tickets sold in that time period [0 sellouts/94 showings     |  12340/13377 seats left  |  7.75% sold] 

Pika (FBadj)** (day 3-5)    54 tickets sold in that time period [0 sellouts/72 showings     |    7230/7475 seats left     |  3.28% sold]    

*  Pika (JW adj) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

**Pika (FB adj) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

 

====

 

Next Update: Thursday Night (4/18).

 

Starting Thur, comps will shift to T-21 days and counting instead of 'x days of pre-sales'

What would be your take on these numbers Porthos?

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DeeCee Global Phenomenon

DeeCee

Posted
Posted

The Thursday to Wednesday schedules are out for Event Cinemas now so other films now have times for Endgame’s OD on the Wednesday. 

 

Miranda Tuesday 

 

https://www.eventcinemas.com.au/Cinema/Miranda#date=2019-04-23

 

Miranda Wednesday 

 

https://www.eventcinemas.com.au/Cinema/Miranda#date=2019-04-24

 

(George St hasn’t updated yet.)

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Mulder said:

What would be your take on these numbers Porthos?

Never done a pure family film track before so... 

 

I guess... Decent?  The percentage is actually a little deflated locally since, for whatever reason, the three local Cinema West theaters posted a much larger slate, 9 to 15 showings, than everyone else who have 2 to 3 showings.

 

Not that we're talking about a HUGE difference in percentage.  If I take away all of those extra showings, then Pika Pika's percentage is 5.05% sold.  But that is a little better.

 

I guess "playing like a pure family film" is my take.  What's interesting is its two weeks away marker is Endgame's OW.  Really curious to see what happens that Sunday night.  From a pure anecdotal recollection, that's when I recall seeing quite a few Finding Dory sales on the actual Pulse stream,  But I never actually counted it, so who knows.

 

Don't think I'll have a great handle on Pika Pika until the 29th or 30th.  Not unless it breaks out before hand, and I REALLY doubt it will.

Edited by Porthos
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DeeCee Global Phenomenon

DeeCee

Posted
Posted

@Porthos Are sessions from 6pm onwards for your Sacramento theatres?  You have a capacity of 24,500 across 243 screenings. 

 

I just did the rough maths and Event George St currently has a capacity of around 15,000 for 50 sessions on opening day (8am onwards). 

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Jamiem Box Office Gold

Jamiem

Posted
Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

The Thursday to Wednesday schedules are out for Event Cinemas now so other films now have times for Endgame’s OD on the Wednesday. 

 

Miranda Tuesday 

 

https://www.eventcinemas.com.au/Cinema/Miranda#date=2019-04-23

 

Miranda Wednesday 

 

https://www.eventcinemas.com.au/Cinema/Miranda#date=2019-04-24

 

(George St hasn’t updated yet.)

No Captain Marvel showings is an interesting choice. I would’ve thought they would keep it on to benefit from double screening with Endgame. 

Edited by Jamiem
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

@Porthos Are sessions from 6pm onwards for your Sacramento theatres?  You have a capacity of 24,500 across 243 screenings. 

 

I just did the rough maths and Event George St currently has a capacity of around 15,000 for 50 sessions on opening day (8am onwards). 

Aside from 5 "fan event" showings at 5pm, yes. 6pm to 1am is pretty much the window, with a smattering of post 1am showings (5 region wide, all at one theater at the moment).

 

Hell, in all actuality, the window for start times is really 6pm to midnight, as only 4 out of the 18 theaters have a showing starting after 12:01am (13 total showings after 12:01a if my quick count is right). 

 

(also, 29 of the 243 local showings are at non-reserved seating, so I have no clue how many seats they have there)

Edited by Porthos
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cdsacken Summer Tentpole

cdsacken

Posted
Posted (edited)

Pure family film to me is unlikely. Many kids will have zero interest in this. It's targeting adults and older kids who like/love Pokemon. I think people exaggerate the size of the target market. It's a similar problem that Shazam faced due to darker content and PG-13 rating. Still the target market is much bigger for Pika. 

Edited by cdsacken
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Mulder Global Phenomenon

Mulder

Posted
Posted
Just now, cdsacken said:

Pure family film to me is unlikely. Many kids will have zero interest in this. It's targeting adults and older kids who like/love Pokemon. I think people greatly exaggerate the size of the target market. It's a similar problem that Shazam faced due to darker content and PG-13 rating.

Pokemon Go was massive and Detective Pikachu is PG. Stop this.

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cdsacken Summer Tentpole

cdsacken

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Pokemon Go was massive and Detective Pikachu is PG. Stop this.

Yeah I altered it to say exaggerate rather than greatly (before you responded)

 

It's not targeted to young kids and most have will not have an interest it. Yes I'm aware that my 800 million WW prediction is well below the numerous 1.5-2 billion predictions but imo they are way too high.

Edited by cdsacken
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Mulder Global Phenomenon

Mulder

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Yeah I altered it to say exaggerate rather than greatly (before you responded)

 

It's not targeted to young kids and most have will not have an interest it. Yes I'm aware that my 800 million WW prediction is well below the numerous 1.5-2 billion predictions but imo they are way too high.

I'm with you on 800-900 WW being more reasonable, but 1 billion isn't out of the realm of possibility. Pokemon is the biggest franchise of the biggest video game company in the world.

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cdsacken Summer Tentpole

cdsacken

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I'm with you on 800-900 WW being more reasonable, but 1 billion isn't out of the realm of possibility. Pokemon is the biggest franchise of the biggest video game company in the world.

Of course it is I agree. 250 Dom is the long term estimate, a bit under 200 for China. If it breaks out and has incredible reviews 1 billion is easily obtainable.

Edited by cdsacken
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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Yeah I altered it to say exaggerate rather than greatly (before you responded)

 

It's not targeted to young kids and most have will not have an interest it. Yes I'm aware that my 800 million WW prediction is well below the numerous 1.5-2 billion predictions but imo they are way too high.

Numerous? Apart from one or two no one is predicting $1.5B-$2B

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