The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[terrestrial]

Weekend Forecast

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, April 21	% Change from Last Wknd
Shazam!	Warner Bros.	$17,500,000	$121,000,000	-28%
The Curse of La Llorona	Warner Bros. / New Line	$16,900,000	$16,900,000	NEW
Breakthrough	Fox	$13,000,000	$16,100,000	NEW
Little	Universal	$8,000,000	$28,600,000	-48%
Captain Marvel	Disney / Marvel	$6,400,000	$397,000,000	-26%
Dumbo	Disney	$6,000,000	$100,600,000	-36%
Penguins	Disney / Disneynature	$4,500,000	$6,200,000	NEW
Pet Sematary (2019)	Paramount	$4,200,000	$48,700,000	-57%
Missing Link	United Artists Releasing	$4,100,000	$13,000,000	-31%
Hellboy (2019)	Lionsgate / Summit	$4,000,000	$19,700,000	-67%

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

 

the reasonings as usual...

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-forecast-breakthrough-the-curse-of-la-llorona-penguins/

 

 

[Porthos]

57 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Wait a 2 AM IMAX show has sold, 130 tickets? Holy fuck.

 

54 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

AMC Prime @ 2am, yes. 

 

I believe if the 230am IMAX 3D was a regular 2D IMAX, it would be about the same but they always try to push the 3D when they can.

This is actually interesting and I'd like to rope in a few folks here ( @DAJK @Deep Wang @Ledmonkey96).

 

How many tickets, roughly, would a special showing like a 2am or 3am have to sell for it to be 'worth it'. Either by percentage or by raw number.

 

NOTE:  I realize it's very likely you'll say "it's never worth it ", but you know what I mean.   Basically at what point would it go from "theater is losing money by having a 3am showing" versus "breaking even" versus "yeah, it was worth it".  Roping in expected concession sales as well.  

 

I ask because while the 2am showings at Arden are doing pretty brisk business (over 50% sold on both showings [157/260 tickets sold at the XD 2am showing | 87/160 tickets sold at the normal sized 2:20a showing]) the 3am ones aren't quite as stellar yet:

 

2:50a (3D): 28/110 tickets sold

3:20a (2D): 13/110 tickets sold

3:50a (2D): 14/161 tickets sold

 

Kinda curious to see just how much they do end up selling and what would be a threshold for a theater manager thinking "Yeah, it was worth it"

 

SECOND NOTE:  I realize this is a little difficult without payroll info and the like.  Still, general idea might be doable.

Edited April 18, 2019 by Porthos

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

This actually interesting and I'd like to rope in a few folks here ( @DAJK @Deep Wang @Ledmonkey96).

 

How many tickets, roughly, would a special showing like a 2am or 3am have to sell for it to be 'worth it'. Either by percentage or by raw number.

 

NOTE:  I realize it's very likely you'll say "it's never worth it ", but you know what I mean.   Basically at what point would it go from "theater is losing money by having a 3am showing" versus "breaking even" versus "yeah, it was worth it".  Roping in expected concession sales as well.  

 

I ask because while the 2am showings at Arden are doing pretty brisk business (over 50% sold on both showings [157/260 tickets sold at the XD 2am showing | 87/160 tickets sold at the normal sized 2:20a showing]) the 3am ones aren't quite as stellar yet:

 

2:50a (3D): 28/110 tickets sold

3:20a (2D): 13/110 tickets sold

3:50a (2D): 14/161 tickets sold

 

Kinda curious to see just how much they do end up selling and what would be a threshold for a theater manager thinking "Yeah, it was worth it"

 

SECOND NOTE:  I realize this is a little difficult without payroll info and the like.  Still, general idea might be doable.

I remember when I worked at a theater the Rogue One 2 AM show ((Only one I was around for)) barely sold anything and from what I've seen just besides that they tend to barely sell. It's why I'm shocked that this one's selling so many tickets.

[DAJK]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

This actually interesting and I'd like to rope in a few folks here ( @DAJK @Deep Wang @Ledmonkey96).

 

How many tickets, roughly, would a special showing like a 2am or 3am have to sell for it to be 'worth it'. Either by percentage or by raw number.

 

NOTE:  I realize it's very likely you'll say "it's never worth it ", but you know what I mean.   Basically at what point would it go from "theater is losing money by having a 3am showing" versus "breaking even" versus "yeah, it was worth it".  Roping in expected concession sales as well.  

 

I ask because while the 2am showings at Arden are doing pretty brisk business (over 50% sold on both showings [157/260 tickets sold at the XD 2am showing | 87/160 tickets sold at the normal sized 2:20a showing]) the 3am ones aren't quite as stellar yet:

 

2:50a (3D): 28/110 tickets sold

3:20a (2D): 13/110 tickets sold

3:50a (2D): 14/161 tickets sold

 

Kinda curious to see just how much they do end up selling and what would be a threshold for a theater manager thinking "Yeah, it was worth it"

 

SECOND NOTE:  I realize this is a little difficult without payroll info and the like.  Still, general idea might be doable.

I mean I work at a small town theatre so a show like that would be never worth it because there simply isn’t the volume. Unless you get a group buyout for exams, which has happened where say the entire staff of a restaurant or an Indigenous band rents out the whole theatre. But that’s like 75-100+ people in a 200 seat auditorium. And even then it would likely only be 2-3 people working max

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I remember when I worked at a theater the Rogue One 2 AM show ((Only one I was around for)) barely sold anything and from what I've seen just besides that they tend to barely sell. It's why I'm shocked that this one's selling so many tickets.

The 2am ones for EG seem to be more or less  what I remember for overnight showings for the SW films that had them locally.  Might have been 30% full though.

 

But it's so rare out here in Sacramento that I don't have vivid/complete recollection of the percentages when it did happen.  

[XXR vs XXR]

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	43.263%	30004	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	08.447%	5858	Shazam!
3	05.149%	3571	Captain Marvel (2019)
4	04.885%	3388	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
5	04.858%	3369	Little (2019)
6	04.724%	3276	Breakthrough (2019)
7	03.161%	2192	Pet Sematary (2019)
8	02.892%	2006	The Curse of La Llorona
9	02.802%	1943	Dumbo (2019)
10	02.724%	1889	Us (2019)
11	02.675%	1855	Hellboy (2019)
12	02.216%	1537	Missing Link (2019)
13	01.614%	1119	Penguins (2019)
14	01.599%	1109	Kalank
15	01.365%	947	After (2019)
16	00.966%	670	The Pilgrims Progress
17	00.874%	606	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
18	00.539%	374	The Best of Enemies
19	00.366%	254	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
20	00.345%	239	Unplanned (2019)
21	00.319%	221	Five Feet Apart
22	00.284%	197	Ben-Hur 60th Anniversary (1959) presented by TCM
23	00.275%	191	Penguins
24	00.247%	171	Hotel Mumbai

 

Endgame outselling the next 22 films combined over the past 24 hours.

Edited April 18, 2019 by VenomXXR

[Menor the Destroyer]

22 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	43.263%	30004	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	08.447%	5858	Shazam!
3	05.149%	3571	Captain Marvel (2019)
4	04.885%	3388	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
5	04.858%	3369	Little (2019)
6	04.724%	3276	Breakthrough (2019)
7	03.161%	2192	Pet Sematary (2019)
8	02.892%	2006	The Curse of La Llorona
9	02.802%	1943	Dumbo (2019)
10	02.724%	1889	Us (2019)
11	02.675%	1855	Hellboy (2019)
12	02.216%	1537	Missing Link (2019)
13	01.614%	1119	Penguins (2019)
14	01.599%	1109	Kalank
15	01.365%	947	After (2019)
16	00.966%	670	The Pilgrims Progress
17	00.874%	606	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
18	00.539%	374	The Best of Enemies
19	00.366%	254	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
20	00.345%	239	Unplanned (2019)
21	00.319%	221	Five Feet Apart
22	00.284%	197	Ben-Hur 60th Anniversary (1959) presented by TCM
23	00.275%	191	Penguins
24	00.247%	171	Hotel Mumbai

 

Endgame outselling the next 22 films combined over the past 24 hours.

On track to hit that 35k target. I think it'll remain at ~1.5x IW until Sunday. After that I have no idea, but hopefully it gets a healthy release week bump.

[FlashMaster659]

Avengers: Endgame: Edwards Ontario Palace Stadium 22 IMAX & RPX - Thursday Night

 

IMAX 2D

 

6:00 PM - 532/532 SOLD OUT

2:20 AM - 192/532

 

IMAX 3D

 

10:10 PM - 532/532 SOLD OUT

 

RPX 2D

 

7:00 PM - 744/744 SOLD OUT

 

RPX 3D

 

11:10 PM - 503/744

 

RealD 3D

 

7:15 PM - 86/150 Aud. 18

10:40 PM - 48/404 Aud. 1

11:25 PM - 4/150 Aud. 18

 

2D

 

6:30 PM - 404/404 Aud. 1 SOLD OUT

7:30 PM - 344/411 Aud. 22

7:45 PM - ?/? SOLD OUT

8:00 PM - 247/322 Aud. 8

8:30 PM - 156/211 Aud. 21

11:40 PM - 218/411 Aud. 22

 

Total (without the unknown sold out show)

 

4010/5547 (72.3%)

[FlashMaster659]

MT

 

Endgame - 33.5%

Shazam! - 10.6%

Dumbo - 6.2%

CM - 6.1%

Breakthrough - 5.8%

[Legion Again]

53 minutes ago, Porthos said:

2:50a (3D): 28/110 tickets sold

3:20a (2D): 13/110 tickets sold

 3:50a (2D): 14/161 tickets sold

Final sales 90%+ all 3. Will quote this post on the 25th  

[FlashMaster659]

The late night Dolby show at my AMC (Sat. 4:00 AM) looked about 70% full when I skimmed over it yesterday

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

Wait a 2 AM IMAX show has sold, 130 tickets? Holy fuck.

 

Of course it's Lincoln Center but still....it's  2:30 am

 

Friday 6am is also filling up - so round the clock IMAX

 

[Porthos]

58 minutes ago, Porthos said:

2:50a (3D): 28/110 tickets sold

3:20a (2D): 13/110 tickets sold

3:50a (2D): 14/161 tickets sold

 

4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Final sales 90%+ all 3. Will quote this post on the 25th  

Even the 3D one, huh?  Well if you feel lucky.

 

Spoiler

Remember, I won't be checking anything after my final report, submitted sometime before 6pm

Spoiler

Also, I don't post the theater totals here off my spreadsheet anyway.

 

 

Edited April 18, 2019 by Porthos

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

On track to hit that 35k target. I think it'll remain at ~1.5x IW until Sunday. After that I have no idea, but hopefully it gets a healthy release week bump.

 

Using @stfletch chart as a barometer, Endgame is currently running 132.7% ahead of IW on Fandango Pulse in absolute presale numbers. Lets assume a 25% uptick in online pre-sale purchases / Fandango coverage in the last year, and the adjusted number is 86.3% ahead.

 

IW did 359,796 on Pulse in the final 8 days through previews. If Endgame merely matches that, it would still be 61.7% ahead of IW. If it matches with the 25% adjustment, we're 76% ahead. If it does 1.5x like it has been the past few days then we're looking at 90.4% over IW.

 

 

 

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Even the 3D one, huh?  Well if you feel lucky.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Remember, I won't be checking anything after my final report, submitted sometime before 6pm

  Hide contents

Also, I don't post the theater totals here off my spreadsheet anyway.

 

 

I did in fact miss that that one was 3D, let’s drop it 

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

IW did 359,796 on Pulse in the final 8 days through previews. If Endgame merely matches that, it would still be 61.7% ahead of IW. If it matches with the 25% adjustment, we're 76% ahead. If it does 1.5x like it has been the past few days then we're looking at 90.4% over IW.

TFA previews are only 46% over IW...

[Mulder]

13 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Of course it's Lincoln Center but still....it's  2:30 am

 

Friday 6am is also filling up - so round the clock IMAX

 

The 2 AM at my IMAX theater-

[charlie Jatinder]

Waiting for Indian pre-sales to start now. Its getting boring now with China frozen.

[Menor the Destroyer]

https://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/16/star-wars-the-force-awakens-surpasses-100m-in-advanced-ticket-sales-report.html

 

So opening weekend presales for TFA were only $50-60 million (holiday boost). And with Endgame I think it's reasonable to assume that 90%+ of presales are for OW, which makes this performance significantly more impressive than it already was (which was a lot).

[XXR vs XXR]

13 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

TFA previews are only 46% over IW...

 

This is true but it's important to remember the math isn't linear. You'll recall that when Deep Wang provided the EG number a few days back, he showed us that TFA and TLJ had basically the same final numbers from his MTC ($36m) but TFA previews were 27% ahead of TLJ. 

So I'm not willing to go into this thinking if it matches my numbers that it'll be 75% ahead of IW for previews, but the numbers are looking exceptionally good right now for a few mythical numbers next weekend  

Edited April 18, 2019 by VenomXXR