The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

It’s Box Office Mojo predictions for this weekend....

i understood that but like wtf ?

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

It’s Box Office Mojo predictions for this weekend....

Yeah, it’s just that they’re so low 

[Deep Wang]

6 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

And if I said I wanted to see this number at 50m, one week from right now. You’d say I’m crazy or.... 👀

 

Man, I just have no idea, lol.

 

On one hand, yes, I could totally see Endgame making another 16m in presales over the last week. Hype and anticipation are going to peak and people will want to get their tickets.  

 

On the other hand, we are reaching a point in presales that we have never reached before and what the hell else is left to even be able to buy, lol.

 

So, they might not increase that much because there isn't a lot left to buy.  I have no fucking clue 😂

 

[Porthos]

@Charlie Jatinder

 

Endgame currently is playing in 18 theaters locally (not counting a drive-in which will check in next week).

 

As of last night it has 243 showings across all screen times.  134 screens are currently devoted to showing EG at least once.  The maximum number of screens in the area is 215.

 

The max screens available are:

 

1 screen:    1 (the local TrueIMAX joint)

6 screens:   2

9 screens:   2

10 screens: 1

12 screens: 2

14 screens: 5

16 screens: 5

 

Any other info you might want, I may or may not be able to give, just depends on what you're looking for.

[terrestrial]

3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

My theater is getting ridiculous: Now there are 15 showtimes for Endgame on Wednesday - one at 12:00 pm - like, Wednesday is a workday, its so early in the day - and despite that that showing has already sold 61 tickets lol.

see under the next quote

3 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Only in Germany would that be considered unusual.    We have matinees earlier than that for all movies - albeit no on the day of previews.

 

The big difference is in the US and other countries AEG will be having 5am and 6am starts and/or continuations from the night before.

 

It is not that atypical during school holidays, especially in the cold months

= bad weather - good for cinema

= good weather - bad for cinema

 

Many people without children take long weekends, half weeks vacation time around double public holidays too.

 

I see children and 6 years up movies, especial local movies aimed at pupils during such days repeatedly even in small-sized cities (20.000 and up). And if they are already open, they like to test out material.

Weekend even more so.

Blockbusters too, they react.

One cinema offers OV movies released within 2 weeks prior regular over the year, always around 14:00 o'clock, and that's not during school holidays.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

On the other hand, we are reaching a point in presales that we have never reached before and what the hell else is left to even be able to buy, lol.

 

Discount Tuesday sales at Century Arden for the 6pm to 8:45pm window are doing fairly brisk business.  

 

[XXR vs XXR]

9 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Yeah, it’s just that they’re so low 

 

Very. In fact, if they hold true it would be the lowest April weekend since the last weekend of 2013. 

[Nova]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Very. In fact, if they hold true it would be the lowest April weekend since the last weekend of 2013. 

People are saving their coins for the event film coming up 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

People are saving their coins for the event film coming up 

No need to soft sell it, we all know that you're referring to Pika Pika here. 

[Nova]

So I haven’t tracked End Game at my theater at all because well I know it’s gonna be a monster but my theater has to be on something. For Thursday night it’s only giving End Game 9 showtimes (including 3D). And not even on the biggest screens for all 9 showtimes. Mind you every single showtime is sold out so like what are they doing? I swear to god I feel like this theater just likes to give money away by not putting enough showtimes or not putting showtimes out on time. 

 

I mean this is the same theater that has SLOP2 starting with 6 showtimes for Thursday night. The hell 

[XXR vs XXR]

 

Endgame sitting @ 12668 through 15 updates on Fandango Pulse. Yesterday through 15 updates it was @ 16400. Gives us a % of 77.2

 

This is on par with the drop Infinity War experienced last year (18788/23790 = 79%)

[HouseOfTheSun]

6 minutes ago, Nova said:

So I haven’t tracked End Game at my theater at all because well I know it’s gonna be a monster but my theater has to be on something. For Thursday night it’s only giving End Game 9 showtimes (including 3D). And not even on the biggest screens for all 9 showtimes. Mind you every single showtime is sold out so like what are they doing? I swear to god I feel like this theater just likes to give money away by not putting enough showtimes or not putting showtimes out on time. 

 

I mean this is the same theater that has SLOP2 starting with 6 showtimes for Thursday night. The hell 

Contractual obligations maybe?

[Deep Wang]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Discount Tuesday sales at Century Arden for the 6pm to 8:45pm window are doing fairly brisk business.  

 

Yeah, I think spillover and WOM, if on the right level, could lead to a crazy Monday/Tuesday double whammy.

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Contractual obligations maybe?

That’s what I thought but its an AMC and i checked the others in the area and they have showtimes anywhere from 15-35 showtimes for it on Thursday night. 

 

Im honestly confused cause typically CBM play really well at my theater to the point where I usually over predict CBM based on how they sell there. And I know they can do more than 9 showtimes on Thursday night cause they’ve done it before lol 

Edited April 18, 2019 by Nova

[Biggestgeekever]

Decided to get in on the sellout report fun for Seattle. I don't feel like counting seats (seriously, bless ya'll who do that because I would go insane if I did lol) and my sellout method is a little different: basically, around 80% or if only the last two rows are taken up is what I count. It's a bit crude, but consistent across what I've done. First off, here's TFA which was done the morning of previews:

 

 

And now TLJ, which was done Wednesday afternoon of release week:

 

Finally, here's Endgame for today. Note that an asterisk denotes a theater I did not track for TLJ:

 

The thing that stick out to me is that Endgame is getting considerably fewer Fan Events than TLJ, and that theaters haven't scheduled around the clock IMAX and PLF showings for it. I'll be curious if that changes by opening or not. Besides that Endgame is, of course, doing phenomenally and what's lost in my chart is the number of AMC theaters using Dolby now. I included those in 2D showings and with a 50% higher ticket price, they're no small boost.

 

I'll try to do another update Wednesday night and possibly Thursday morning. 

[Porthos]

As we get closer and closer to the event horizon that is Endgame, I do want to point something out.

 

At some point, projection systems just break down due to the lack of relevant historical data.  We saw this in the runup to TFA, for instance.  Back in the day, the projection systems that the trades would use just couldn't handle the 200m+ OWs and more or less said:

 

 

Now over the last few years, we've had more data points/examples when it comes to mega openers, so it's gotten a little better.

 

But now Endgame is coming and just shattering even those meager priors we had.

 

My point is to not to say 300m isn't happening.  It's to say it probably can't be predicted/projected very accurately.  And, yes, having that missing Fandango data is a huge hinderance here (though with sources like @Deep Wang and various reports in the trades [like that AMC one], we can try to piece things together).

 

So our comps might point to a 65m Thr or larger (who knows at the moment, I haven't sat down to figure out a trajectory).  And our selection of various theaters and showtimes might point to some sort of OW range.

 

But we really are in uncharted territory here.  The biggest uncharted territory since TFA.

 

Recognizing that we are in uncharted territory and that all of our comps we are breaking out can only tell us so much is probably a good idea.  At least keeping it in the back of our heads.

 

NB: This isn't to say that we shouldn't keep bringing the comps.  We absolutely positively should.  Just... don't expect perfection out of them as we try to analyze everything, is more or less what I am saying here.

Edited April 18, 2019 by Porthos

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

But we really are in uncharted territory here.  The biggest uncharted territory since TFA.

 

Recognizing that we are in uncharted territory and that all of our comps we are breaking out can only tell us so much is probably a good idea.  At least keeping it in the back of our heads.

 

As Doctor Strange said, "We're in the endgame now..."

 

Lets all enjoy this ride because it may not be replicated again for a good while. 

[Legion Again]

What you say: At this point we’re doing extrapolation instead of interpolation. Models break down and there’s unusually high uncertainty, so exercise caution.   

 

What I hear: At this point we’re doing extrapolation instead of interpolation. Models break down and there’s unusually high uncertainty, so no one can definitively deny the 325M train 

Edited April 18, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[MattW]

Deathly Hallows 2 jumped the equivalent of about 50m over DH1 in today's dollars, but then I believe 3D was a big part of that and I'm not sure how much the effect was.  Episode 3 jumped over Ep2 about 50m (for the 4 day opening for both movies) as well adjusting both up to today's prices, in that case though 3 years had passed. Not apples to apples in either case but the opportunity seems to be there.

Edited April 18, 2019 by MattW

[Biggestgeekever]

The factor that does make me want to join the $300M OW train is that, even though Friday presales are huge right now... just like other Marvel movies, Saturday is just off the charts, with 7AM showings already over 50% capacity and afternoon showings selling out left and right. It's clear that it is still the day to see it, even with all this must-see-it-right-away hype. I genuinely think this has a shot at hitting $90M on Saturday.