The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[BudStarr]

2 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Can't see the correlation for DP versus purely animated films. Will be curious to see. Shazam comp somewhat makes sense. 

The correlation is that they are PG films with similar presales windows (30ish days). Shazam has its own issues as well. There is no such thing as a perfect comp.

1 hour ago, Nova said:

I will probably look into it during my study break but other comps for Detective Pikachu could be Dumbo and Christopher Robin. 

Thanks for the suggestions, @Nova. Here we go...

 

First 9 days

93.8% of Dumbo (43.1m)

407% of Christopher Robin (99.98m)

 

I had dispensed with Dumbo because it only had 18 days of presales to Pikachu’s 30, so at this point we’re comparing “30-22 days out” with “18-10 days out” which isn’t like for like. Just dug into the archives for Christopher Robin, which had 25 days so is closer.

[Minnale101]

5 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Actually now that I think about Dragon 3 can also really work. That said I think Pikachu will open higher than all of them barring Incredibles 2.

 

I sort of like Incredibles 2 ticket comparisons the best as they have some similarities. High social media/trailer buzz, plays towards the nostalgic crowd, and it’s first major family movie in a while. The only problem is I2 is animated which cause presales to be a bit more deflated, then again it was a hyped up sequel. Shazam is also my second favorite but as it is PG-13, it was limited to truly benefiting from families as a PG film or an animated film. I sort of like Dumbo and Christopher Robin and they make a lot of sense, though I imagine the female audience was more prominent ergo higher sales.

 

5 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Actually now that I think about Dragon 3 can also really work. That said I think Pikachu will open higher than all of them barring Incredibles 2.

 

I sort of like Incredibles 2 ticket comparisons the best as they have some similarities. High social media/trailer buzz, plays towards the nostalgic crowd, and it’s first major family movie in a while. The only problem is I2 is animated which cause presales to be a bit more deflated, then again it was a hyped up sequel. Shazam is also my second favorite but as it is PG-13, it was limited to truly benefiting from families as a PG film or an animated film. I sort of like Dumbo and Christopher Robin and they make a lot of sense, though I imagine the female audience was more prominent ergo higher sales.

Dumbo was headed for fine opening until reviews was trashed 

 

I don’t see why that’s a bad comparison for detective pikachu. If detective pikachu gets positive reviews then it should do a lot more the dumbo. Tracking wise it should lineup until last week when the reviews dropped 

[Nova]

18 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Two big flops for Disney? Sorry I don't understand any of this data but that's not the comparison I want for DP.

Nothing about them being flops 

 

But they’re similar live action and considering the only other one that’s similar was BATB which was a monster, I would like all the comps we can get. Will the comps be perfect? Probably not. But best to look at a wide variety of data and then looking to see where Pikachu ends up. 

[YM!]

Just now, Minnale101 said:

 

Dumbo was headed for fine opening until reviews was trashed 

 

I don’t see why that’s a bad comparison for detective pikachu. If detective pikachu gets positive reviews then it should do a lot more the dumbo. Tracking wise it should lineup until last week when the reviews dropped 

It’s a good comparison, I’m just pointing out some of the circumstances. I also forgot about Dumbo’s reviews as well.

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, BudStarr said:

The correlation is that they are PG films with similar presales windows (30ish days). Shazam has its own issues as well. There is no such thing as a perfect comp.

Thanks for the suggestions, @Nova. Here we go...

 

First 9 days

93.8% of Dumbo (43.1m)

407% of Christopher Robin (99.98m)

 

I had dispensed with Dumbo because it only had 18 days of presales to Pikachu’s 30, so at this point we’re comparing “30-22 days out” with “18-10 days out” which isn’t like for like. Just dug into the archives for Christopher Robin, which had 25 days so is closer.

Thank you for doing the work! 

 

So pretty much any comp is all over the place for this movie 

 

Also I agree with you that there is no perfect comp. Each movie has its pros and cons in terms of comparison. 

Edited April 19, 2019 by Nova

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Want to thank everyone for all their wonderful, hard work you are doing tracking presales, from International numbers, Fandango, and individual theaters. It's been a blast to follow along.

[Nova]

22 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Long standing brand name that plays for children but also appeals to adults.  Not bad.  Though DP will probably have a stronger teen and young male audience b/c of Reynolds.

Yea I agree. Although if you had told me 5 years ago that Ryan Reynolds would have a positive effect on box office I would have laughed in your face.  I'm just trying to find all relevant comps. None of them are perfect but I'm hoping by the time release comes we will have a better picture of how the movie might play. 

[VanillaSkies]

You've all inspired me to post some data. 
I've been tracking one of the largest theaters here in Canada, Scotiabank Theatre Toronto.
I don't think anyone on here is tracking this one (forgive me if I missed it and this is duplicate info), so here we go. 

Of note. Cineplex is notorious for not booking a lot of shows well in advance, so Fri/Sat/Sun showtimes will definitely increase early next week when they release the full weekly schedule.  We also rarely have shows past 11pm here, so it will be interesting to see how late they are willing to go once most showings are completely sold out. 

 

Thursday 

 

AVX - 7pm (462/474)

          11pm (424/474)

 

IMAX - 6:30pm (413/415)

            10:30pm (409/415)

3D  -   6pm (541/558)

           6:45pm (232/313)

           10:00pm (424/558)

           10:45pm (105/313)

 

Regular - 7:20pm (126/192) *only recently added

                8:00pm (306/313)

               11:15pm (37/192) *only recently added 

Total (3481/4217) - 82.55% Sold 
 

Friday 

 

AVX - 11am (200/474)

          3pm (296/474)

          7pm (432/474)

          11pm (398/474)

 

IMAX - 10:30am (293/415)

            2:30pm (331/415)

            6:30pm  (392/415)

            10:30pm (362/415)

 

3D  - 2pm (193/320)

         6:00pm (397/558)

         10:00pm (301/558)

 

Regular - 12:45pm (203/313)

                5:00pm (256/313)

                9:15pm (278/313)

 

Total: (4332/5931) -70.04% sold

 

Saturday 

 

AVX - 11am (253/474)

          3pm (382/474)

          7pm (393/474)

          11pm (206/474)

 

IMAX - 10:30am (323/415)

            2:30pm (361/415)

            6:30pm  (350/415)

            10:30pm (331/415)

 

3D  - 10am (25/320)

         2pm (89/320)

         6:15pm (207/558)

         10:15pm (82/558)

 

Regular - 12:45pm (192/313)

                5:00pm (216/313)

                9:15pm (219/313)

 

Total: (3629/6251) - 58.05% sold

 

*edited at 1:30pm 2019/04/19 to include Saturday numbers, to show how strong Saturday presales are. Updated all 3 days at that time for consistency.

Edited April 19, 2019 by VanillaSkies
add Saturday figures

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

Yea I agree. Although if you had told me 5 years ago that Ryan Reynolds would have a positive effect on box office I would have laughed in your face.  I'm just trying to find all relevant comps. None of them are perfect but I'm hoping by the time release comes we will have a better picture of how the movie might play. 

We should get some type of tracking today I think.

[Cappoedameron]

30 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Long standing brand name that plays for children but also appeals to adults.  Not bad.  Though DP will probably have a stronger teen and young male audience b/c of Reynolds.

Pokemon has never really been a brand preferred by one gender over the other. It's been universally loved by all over the years.

[Geveeso]

25 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Very real, happening in 3 locations and iirc sold out at all quite fast.

12 theaters in the US, and you can still get a seat at a few of them.

[BudStarr]

16 minutes ago, Nova said:

Thank you for doing the work! 

 

So pretty much any comp is all over the place for this movie 

 

Also I agree with you that there is no perfect comp. Each movie has its pros and cons in terms of comparison. 

I totally agree. I don’t think truly valid comps can be done until we’re closer to release date anyway. A clearer picture will start to emerge, the range will narrow and there will be more options in a week or so.

31 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

In my honest opinion, Spider-Verse, Dumbo, Incredibles 2 and Shazam all seem like good comparisons as they skewed older for family films and had stronger presales. Venom or Ant Man and The Wasp can also work (for me at least) as both had low presales at my Cinema.

Thanks for these suggestions. Venom really can’t be used at this point because it only had 15 days of presales but it’s worth exploring later down the line. I’d have to look into Spider-Verse and AMATW as I don’t have the data for them right now.

[Nova]

I think Spider-verse also had very short presale window. The 99K that I mentioned earlier in the thread was after 2 days of sales (November 30th) and the film came out roughly 2 weeks later. So I shouldn’t have used it (at the time I didn’t know it was only after 2 days) 

 

Also @Cappoedameron I love you man and I get that you’re enthusiastic about Pokémon but trust me when I tell you that most people in this thread know that no comp is perfect but that doesn’t mean we don’t use them. The reality is that we actually have no idea how Pikachu will play out. It could very well perform like a CBM or it could perform like an animated family film. We of course won’t know until the movie comes out but man you’re making all of us Pikachu fans look bad when you consistently down play a comp. Again no comp is perfect. That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be used. 

 

Anyways based on all comps I’ve seen an OW range of $50-100M is where it’s headed and my half assed prediction will still be more accurate than Deadline’s. 

Edited April 19, 2019 by Nova

[Eric Duncan]

Movie/Time	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
Avengers: Endgame	26,081	27,623	33,668	26,817
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days
Detective Pikachu	350	258	240	234
	25 days	24 days	23 days	22 days
John Wick 3	1,361	734	601	291
	32 days	31 days	30 days	29 days
Secret Life of Pets 2	11	11	12	13
	53 days	52 days	51 days	50 days

 

Endgame

Last 7 Days (14-8)

181% of Black Panther (365M)

152% of Infinity War (393.1M)

349% of Captain Marvel (535.3M)

 

Day 17-8

186% of Black Panther (374.9M)

165% of Infinity War (426.4M)

411% of Captain Marvel (630.4M)

 

Day 22-8

198% of Infinity War (509.6M)

532% of Captain Marvel (815.7M)

 

Cumulative (minus first two days)

121% of Infinity War (312.8M)

329% of Captain Marvel (505.1M)

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, Nova said:

I think Spider-verse also had very short presale window. The 99K that I mentioned earlier in the thread was after 2 days of sales (November 30th) and the film came out roughly 2 weeks later. So I shouldn’t have used it (at the time I didn’t know it was only after 2 days) 

 

Also @Cappoedameron I love you man and I get that you’re enthusiastic about Pokémon but trust me when I tell you that most people in this thread know that no comp is perfect but that doesn’t mean we don’t use them. The reality is that we actually have no idea how Pikachu will play out. It could very well perform like a CBM or it could perform like an animated family film. We of course won’t know until the movie comes out but man you’re making all of us Pikachu fans look bad when you consistently down play a comp. Again no comp is perfect. That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be used. 

 

Anyways based on all comps I’ve seen an OW range of $50-100M is where it’s headed and my half assed prediction will still be more accurate than Deadline’s. 

Out fo likes but I agree.

[Stewart]

8 minutes ago, Nova said:

Anyways based on all comps I’ve seen an OW range of $50-100M is where it’s headed and my half assed prediction will still be more accurate than Deadline’s. 

Agreed that we don't know what comps are comparable for DP (though I'm like 90% certain it won't perform like a CBM).

 

Though I can imagine the trades will have just as much difficulty as we are, and we could see different trades reporting numbers anywhere from, heck, even $40-$140m. The film is just such a huge wildcard I don't think anybody knows what it'll gross when it releases. Personally I think this is why the DP weekend thread might actually be more fun than the EG weekend thread  

[Menor the Destroyer]

What do people think the chances of TFA previews going down are? Looking at updates in this thread it seems like it'll fall juuust short, but I'm not that experienced with predictions.

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

What do people think the chances of TFA previews going down are? Looking at updates in this thread it seems like it'll fall juuust short, but I'm not that experienced with predictions.

 

50/50 right now. It’s going to be close either way, but since it’s going to be so close we really need to see the data through at least Thursday afternoon.

[Cap]

8 minutes ago, Menor said:

 

 

1

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

What do people think the chances of TFA previews going down are? Looking at updates in this thread it seems like it'll fall juuust short, but I'm not that experienced with predictions.

AEG to TFA:

 

 

 

Edited April 19, 2019 by captainwondyful

[cdsacken]

3 hours ago, Nova said:

I will probably look into it during my study break but other comps for Detective Pikachu could be Dumbo and Christopher Robin. 

Those are good ones to use and it could easily outperform the comp if reviews are good.