The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[FlashMaster659]

Is this a lot?

 

https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/1119980538423431170

 

[charlie Jatinder]

@Thanos Legion do we admantly need 307 or we will do fine with say 323.

[Sam]

Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

@Thanos Legion do we admantly need 307 or we will do fine with say 323.

Yes. Yes, we do. 

 

For Thanos. For the universe.

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

@Thanos Legion do we admantly need 307 or we will do fine with say 323.

307 is the most perfectly balanced option, but I will also allow 303, 313, or 323 on ground of symmetry. 308-312, 314-322, 324+ are not allowed.

[excel1]

INFINITY WAR is the only Marvel film to open above expectations in a dogs age. 

 

Thinking we're looking at the $270-275 range; $300m = impossible

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, Menor said:

I think y'all are being a little too confident about the preview record. If you look at the data @Porthos and others have provided, its far from a lock (I might actually bet against at this point, but its close). Presales are insane yes, but that's for the whole OW, not just Thursday.

I mean, I DID say "Outlook Good" as opposed to "It Is Certain" or even "Signs Point To Yes" for a reason.

 

As of last night if EG didn't sell another ticket for Thr, it'd get the following:

 

Adjusted Comps:

1.2609x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night. [49.18m]
1.1207x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night at the exact same theaters in town. [43.71m]

2.0482x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at stop of tracking.    [51.62m]
2.0409x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at stop of tracking.       [37.96m]
2.8673x as many tickets sold as Solo at stop of tracking.                  [40.43m]
2.6652x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking. [40.78m]

 

No Adjustment:

1.8870x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel at stop of tracking.     [39.06m]

 

(For the record, that new theater in town is at the moment fairly irrelevant to the above comps, having sold just over thirty tickets so far [not being up yet on Fandango, this isn't surprising IMO])

 

But the thing is, there's still five full (well, four and three-quarters for my purposes) of days of sales left.  Historically the busiest ones (though it is literally impossible in this case for the last 4.75 days to match the first day locally).

 

And while it is true that there's only so much room to grow in current showings (not none, I'll add), there's still a decent amount of room for growth on showings locally.  I won't name a figure on the number of showings I think will get added, but more than two dozen wouldn't surprise me.

 

tl;dr: Is the preview record going down a sure 100% thing?  I mean, I meant it earlier when I said projection systems break down at the extremes.  Hell, I personally think only the two IW comps I have will be worth a damn when all is said and done.  If one put with a gun to my head, I'd probably pick the exact mid-range between the two, especially with the added wildcard of a brand spanking new theater.

 

That being said, I sure as hell wouldn't bet against EG at this point. 

[XXR vs XXR]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I mean, I DID say "Outlook Good"

 

@Porthos confirms $70m previews!!!

 

 

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, excel1 said:

INFINITY WAR is the only Marvel film to open above expectations in a dogs age. 

 

Thinking we're looking at the $270-275 range; $300m = impossible

Yeah, it’s the first to open above expectation since... the movie right before it, which came out a whole 3 months earlier 

Edited April 21, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[excel1]

3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Yeah, it’s the first to open above expectation since... the movie right before it, which came out a whole 3 months earlier 

 

Was referring to the dramatic over predictions for CIVIL WAR and DULLTRON, sorry.

[Biggestgeekever]

3 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

All of these presales have to go somewhere, and if it isn't for previews, then fuck me that True Friday will be insane.  Or maybe it's just going to go for $100m Saturday...

I'm kind of thinking the runtime might work in favor of that latter scenario (well, maybe not quite 100M ). 3 hour movies tend to better Saturday bumps, even fan driven ones; Return of the King had a noticeably better Saturday bump than Two Towers or Fellowship https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=vs-lotr.htm.

 

Plus, it seems like Saturdays increases in general have been stronger than usual this year.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, excel1 said:

INFINITY WAR is the only Marvel film to open above expectations in a dogs age. 

 

Thinking we're looking at the $270-275 range; $300m = impossible

Your range may very well be correct but I do not believe $300m is impossible by any stretch. The numbers we’re seeing bare out the capacity for well over $300m, and the ticket sales in comparison to IW draw a similar conclusion thus far.

Edited April 21, 2019 by VenomXXR

[Porthos]

in regards to the runtime, one thing I am seeing is a lot of pre-10am showings.  This, along with more post 10pm showings than normal, does appear to be one way local theaters are trying to get around the 3 hour run time.

 

That is, have a screen crunch in the 'normal' 10am to 10pm window?  Just schedule extra showings on either side of that window.

[Rumpot]

1 hour ago, excel1 said:

INFINITY WAR is the only Marvel film to open above expectations in a dogs age. 

 

Thinking we're looking at the $270-275 range; $300m = impossible

Aw man I wanted to be the one who stands out by something that is quite likely is actually impossible.  Congrats

 

[Ledmonkey96]

Wednesday could get pretty close to day 1 in terms of pre-sales, in certain areas at least. Tuesday is the day that the movie schedules are going to be finalized after all. My area currently has only 54 Thursday shows, 22 of which are sold out already. For the entire weekend my area has 325 showings, 33 of which are sold out. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

I mean, I DID say "Outlook Good" as opposed to "It Is Certain" or even "Signs Point To Yes" for a reason.

 

As of last night if EG didn't sell another ticket for Thr, it'd get the following:

 

Adjusted Comps:

1.2609x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night. [49.18m]
1.1207x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night at the exact same theaters in town. [43.71m]

2.0482x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at stop of tracking.    [51.62m]
2.0409x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at stop of tracking.       [37.96m]
2.8673x as many tickets sold as Solo at stop of tracking.                  [40.43m]
2.6652x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking. [40.78m]

 

No Adjustment:

1.8870x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel at stop of tracking.     [39.06m]

 

(For the record, that new theater in town is at the moment fairly irrelevant to the above comps, having sold just over thirty tickets so far [not being up yet on Fandango, this isn't surprising IMO])

 

But the thing is, there's still five full (well, four and three-quarters for my purposes) of days of sales left.  Historically the busiest ones (though it is literally impossible in this case for the last 4.75 days to match the first day locally).

 

And while it is true that there's only so much room to grow in current showings (not none, I'll add), there's still a decent amount of room for growth on showings locally.  I won't name a figure on the number of showings I think will get added, but more than two dozen wouldn't surprise me.

 

tl;dr: Is the preview record going down a sure 100% thing?  I mean, I meant it earlier when I said projection systems break down at the extremes.  Hell, I personally think only the two IW comps I have will be worth a damn when all is said and done.  If one put with a gun to my head, I'd probably pick the exact mid-range between the two, especially with the added wildcard of a brand spanking new theater.

 

That being said, I sure as hell wouldn't bet against EG at this point. 

Oh I wasn't referring to you, your analyses are normally very levelheaded. But there were some in here who were claiming it was a lock due to the crazy overall presales which I don't think is true.

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

in regards to the runtime, one thing I am seeing is a lot of pre-10am showings.  This, along with more post 10pm showings than normal, does appear to be one way local theaters are trying to get around the 3 hour run time.

 

That is, have a screen crunch in the 'normal' 10am to 10pm window?  Just schedule extra showings on either side of that window.

Thank god for them. Going on at 905 or 925am I think in Cambridge UK

 

[Morieris]

Our third party theater has a big banner on the site that says PREORDER ENDGAME TICKETS with a link but no times, and the times for Thursday and Friday are just.....5 showings. Of the first Avengers.

 

I don't know if those are placeholders or what but I think they might genuinely be playing the first one bc they list the 2hr 22 minute time instead of 3hr 2m

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Wednesday could get pretty close to day 1 in terms of pre-sales, in certain areas at least. Tuesday is the day that the movie schedules are going to be finalized after all. My area currently has only 54 Thursday shows, 22 of which are sold out already. For the entire weekend my area has 325 showings, 33 of which are sold out. 

When I said "literally impossible" to match Day 1 sales, I was only referring to Thursday showtimes.

 

(Yes, yes, @Thanos Legion I'll take the "Challenge Accepted" comment as read, thanks. )

 

Thing is, locally EG did just a tiny bit shy of 15,000 tickets on its Day 1.  As of last night there were just over 6,000 tickets left locally for Thr.  And while I'm expecting some more expansion for Thr, I'm not expecting 9,000 seats worth of expansion.

 

The other thing is, while the final Thr+OW lineup hasn't been set at some theaters, it's not only expanded once, but two or three times for others.  Esp on Thr.

 

But you are right that the places/areas that haven't set much of their OW slate should see a ton of sales.  That I 100 percent agree with.

 

So, sure.  Wed could be a monster day of pre-sales.  But most of it I reckon will be for the actual OW.  And I just don't think it'll be that close to Day 1 overall.

 

...

 

Or maybe I should say "I hope not" coz I'd really rather not have Pulse crash again.

[XXR vs XXR]

Fandango Tracking -- 14 Updates

 

Endgame, April 20 - 8746

Endgame, April 21 - 13872 (+58.6%)

 

IW Equivalent Sunday - 27180

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Fandango Tracking -- 14 Updates

 

Endgame, April 20 - 8746

Endgame, April 21 - 13872 (+58.6%)

 

IW Equivalent Sunday - 27180

estimate it finish ? or it stared now ?