The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Duncan]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Posting all the CBM & Tentpoles for comps though probably only AIW matters. 

 

AEG is so far ahead in early pre-sales so lets see how it matches late pre-sales and walk-ups.

 

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday		B.O.
Black Panther	35,429	36,302	39,934	65,453		$25.2m/$202m
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000		$39m/ $267.698m
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212			$18.6m/$125.5m
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533			$14.1m/$84.42m
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266			$15.3m/ $148m
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108			$11.5m/ $75.8m
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569		$10m/$80.2m
Fantastic Beasts 2	8,956	14,238	21,861	31,880		$9.1m/$62.16m
Aquaman	8,502	9,671	15,063	25,201		($4.7m)+$9m/$67.87m
Captain Marvel	33,951	37,060	49,745	64,456		$20.7m/$153.43m
Shazam!	5,083	N/A	**5,975	17,143		($3.2m)+ $5.9m/$53.5m
Avengers: End Game

 

 

Only number I'm not sure of is that 206k for AIW on Thur and if any one has any of the other Thur numbers listed that would be great. 

 

It looks like AEG's Sunday number will be higher than any other's Monday or Tues - except AIW

 

 

@stfletch made some posts a while back that mentioned akvalley's official archive, and that IW's final Thursday was at 76,734, which I think makes way more sense. Jumping from 68k to 206k in one day is basically unheard of, and would seem like a massive stretch to get a bounce that back, even for a movie like Infinity War.

[FlashMaster659]

3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

@stfletch made some posts a while back that mentioned akvalley's official archive, and that IW's final Thursday was at 76,734, which I think makes way more sense. Jumping from 68k to 206k in one day is basically unheard of, and would seem like a massive stretch to get a bounce that back, even for a movie like Infinity War.

How are the differences in estimation so huge for IW's Thursday?

[TalismanRing]

18 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

@stfletch made some posts a while back that mentioned akvalley's official archive, and that IW's final Thursday was at 76,734, which I think makes way more sense. Jumping from 68k to 206k in one day is basically unheard of, and would seem like a massive stretch to get a bounce that back, even for a movie like Infinity War.

76,734 looks more likely except it then seems much too close to BP and CM and a rather too small bounce up from Wed (just 11% compared to 60%+) . 

 

Somewhere around 100k would seem more likely

 

Edited April 22, 2019 by TalismanRing

[VanillaSkies]

I don't know about everyone else, but the theater in Toronto I've been tracking all week had quite a surge in sales beginning this afternoon, particularly Saturdays showings. I will post an update tomorrow afternoon when I have more time, but at this point I'm thinking it's not so far fetched to think that Saturday will match the true Friday number, or dare I say, possibly even slightly exceed. Saturday shows will be sold out from sun-up till sun-down it seems. 

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

I don't know about everyone else, but the theater in Toronto I've been tracking all week had quite a surge in sales beginning this afternoon, particularly Saturdays showings. I will post an update tomorrow afternoon when I have more time, but at this point I'm thinking it's not so far fetched to think that Saturday will match the true Friday number, or dare I say, possibly even slightly exceed. Saturday shows will be sold out from sun-up till sun-down it seems. 

Isn’t that what we’d expect? IW’s Sat was more than +20% the true Fri.

[VanillaSkies]

3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Isn’t that what we’d expect? IW’s Sat was more than +20% the true Fri.

Generally for a Marvel film, yes. 

But with the massive amount of tickets already sold for Thursday previews/Friday it is pretty up in the air how the weekend will play out. As someone mentioned in the last few pages, we could be looking at a Friday number (Thu + Fri) of 140 million+, which you would assume would soak up a large amount of demand. But Saturday presales are starting to say otherwise, and suggest that perhaps it will follow the regular Marvel internal weekend multiplier.... which would be insane if true Friday is as large as some of us think it might be based on presales. 

[stfletch]

Updated table...

 

AIW Date	Days to Open	AIW Tickets	AEG Date	AEG Tickets	AEG/AIW	Notes
2018-03-16	41	29,410
2018-03-17	40	16,237
2018-03-18	39	10,631
2018-03-19	38	14,574
2018-03-20	37	9,366
2018-03-21	36	8,281
2018-03-22	35	6,101
2018-03-23	34	3,753
2018-03-24	33	2,426
2018-03-25	32	3,655
2018-03-26	31	5,191
2018-03-27	30	4,647
2018-03-28	29	4,241
2018-03-29	28	3,060
2018-03-30	27	2,134
2018-03-31	26	2,471
2018-04-01	25	3,662
2018-04-02	24	7,257
2018-04-03	23	6,866	2019-04-02	330,000		Pulse down entire day
2018-04-04	22	7,917	2019-04-03	40,000		Pulse down until around 7pm CST
2018-04-05	21	5,692	2019-04-04	30,292	5.3
2018-04-06	20	3,618	2019-04-05	17,428	4.8
2018-04-07	19	3,383	2019-04-06	11,697	3.5
2018-04-08	18	6,363	2019-04-07	16,137	2.5
2018-04-09	17	10,828	2019-04-08	28,219	2.6
2018-04-10	16	8,670	2019-04-09	24,701	2.8
2018-04-11	15	13,960	2019-04-10	25,617	1.8
2018-04-12	14	13,332	2019-04-11	23,680	1.8
2018-04-13	13	7,614	2019-04-12	15,554	2.0
2018-04-14	12	5,602	2019-04-13	11,720	2.1
2018-04-15	11	9,314	2019-04-14	17,436	1.9
2018-04-16	10	18,403	2019-04-15	26,081	1.4
2018-04-17	9	19,431	2019-04-16	28,287	1.5
2018-04-18	8	23,790	2019-04-17	34,783	1.5
2018-04-19	7	18,788	2019-04-18	28,851	1.5
2018-04-20	6	14,281	2019-04-19	23,629	1.7
2018-04-21	5	12,368	2019-04-20	20,956	1.7
2018-04-22	4	27,180	2019-04-21	36,215	1.3
2018-04-23	3	48,861
2018-04-24	2	55,376
2018-04-25	1	68,137
2018-04-26	0	76,734
* Estimate based on using Fandango Comment that AEG outsold AIW 5:1 in first week
**Estimate based on the fact we had about 1/4th of the days data

Edited April 22, 2019 by stfletch

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, VanillaSkies said:

we could be looking at a Friday number (Thu + Fri) of 140 million+, which you would assume would soak up a large amount of demand.

Well, I would assume that 65 previews+80 true Fri would lead naturally into a 90+ Sat, but there’s about a 50% chance that this movie has turned me into a loon.

[VanillaSkies]

18 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Well, I would assume that 65 previews+80 true Fri would lead naturally into a 90+ Sat, but there’s about a 50% chance that this movie has turned me into a loon.

Haha, EG got us all feeling a little looney.. 

Yeah, if those figures of yours hold true that would pave the way for 300 million+ weekend. 

[Ledmonkey96]

22 hours ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Sold 149 Tickets today

As of 4/21/19	Tickets Sold	Total Tickets	% sold
Thursday	868	874	99.31%
Friday	1250	1389	89.99%
Saturday	1413	1651	85.58%
Sunday	955	1651	57.84%
Total	4486	5565	80.61%
IW full weekend	5869
% of IW	76.44%

 

 

We are now at 10 shows between 90 and 100% and 15 sold out. Also pre-sales are now less than 1.4k behind all ticket sales of IW's OW.

As of 4/22/19	Tickets Sold	Total Tickets	% sold
Thursday	868	874	99.31%
Friday	1282	1389	92.30%
Saturday	1472	1651	89.16%
Sunday	1041	1651	63.05%
Total	4663	5565	83.79%
IW full weekend	5869
% of IW	79.45%

 

Sold 177 tickets today, we are now up to 17 sold out shows, and 20 showings between 90% and 100%

[Menor the Destroyer]

Will reach about 37-38k at least once everything is updated, with even mediocre weekday bumps Endgame should get to 50m at @Deep Wang chain unless Fandango correlation breaks down. Very good bump today.

[Porthos]

 

Avengers: Endgame Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	28	254	5666	26037	78.24%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today:               6

Total Seats Sold Today:                  457

 

Infinity War Comps:

1.7715x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 4 days before release [Infinity War has 41 days of pre−sales compared to Endgame's 23 days]
1.2859x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night. [50.15m]
1.1374x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night at the exact same theaters in town. [44.36m]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally.

 

IW (T-4)                305 tickets sold that day   [5 sellouts/139 showings   | 3803/13359 seats left  | 71.53% sold]      

EG (adj*):                329 tickets sold today       [28 sellouts/254 showings | 4666/21594 seats left  | 78.39% sold]

EG (exact**):             220 tickets sold today       [28 sellouts/218 showings | 3062/18035 seats left  | 83.02% sold]

---

IW (final):   13164 tickets sold at stop [59 sellouts/182 showings | 1195/15159 seats left  | 86.64% sold]

EG (adj*):   16928 tickets sold so far   [28 sellouts/254 showings | 4666/21594 seats left  | 78.39% sold]

EG (exact**):  14973 tickets sold so far   [28 sellouts/218 showings | 3062/18035 seats left  | 83.02% sold]

----

* EG (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

** EG (exact) is the number of tickets sold at the EXACT same theaters in town for a pure like-for-like comparison.

 

OTHER COMPS:

Spoiler

Captain Marvel:

Spoiler

 

3.6612x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel 4 days before release. [CM had 58 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
1.9304x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel at stop of tracking.     [39.96m]

 

CM (T-4):          402 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/131 showings  | 8041/13605 seats left  | 40.90% sold]

CM (final):     10553 tickets sold at stop   [8 sellouts/216 showings  | 9439/19992 seats left  | 52.79% sold]

EG:                20371 tickets sold so far    [28 sellouts/254 showings | 5666/26037 seats left | 78.24% sold]

NOTE: I have the same sources of tracking info for Endgame as I did Captain Marvel, so the unadjusted comp is being used here, even though Endgame is playing in a couple more theaters locally. Check the main stat box for the number of tickets sold today if you want to compare it to the number of tickets Captain Marvel sold on its second day.

 

Selected Other Comps (T-4 and Final):

Spoiler

4.0286x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 4 days before release. [BP had 30 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
4.2373x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 4 days before release. [DP2 had 29 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
4.1602x as many tickets sold as Solo 4 days before release. [Solo had 30 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
6.9663x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 4 days before release. [JW2 had 22 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]

 

BP (T-4)             200 tickets sold that day [6 sellouts/74 showings     |  3508/7710 seats left    | 54.50% sold]

DP2 (T-4)          264 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/121 showings   |  9472/13467 seats left   | 29.67% sold] 

Solo (T-4)          151 tickets sold that day [1 sellout/92 showings      |  6077/10146 seats left   | 40.10% sold]

JW2 (T-4)           220 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/111 showings   |  8833/11263 seats left  | 21.58% sold]

EG(adj*) (T-4)      329 tickets sold today     [28 sellouts/254 showings | 4666/21594 seats left  | 78.39% sold]

*EM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

----

 

2.0888x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at stop of tracking.    [52.64m]
2.0814x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at stop of tracking.       [38.71m]
2.9242x as many tickets sold as Solo at stop of tracking.                  [41.23m]
2.7180x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking. [41.59m]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally.

 

BP (final):     8104 tickets sold at stop [26 sellouts/136 showings |  3377/11481 seats left  | 70.59% sold]

DP2 (final):   8133 tickets sold at stop [3 sellouts/169 showings   |  8357/16490 seats left  | 49.32% sold]

Solo (final):  5789 tickets sold at stop [5 sellouts/143 showings    |  7732/13521 seats left | 42.81% sold]

JW2 (final):   6228 tickets sold at stop [1 sellout/147 showings     |  7487/13715 seats left | 45.41% sold]

EG (adj*):   16928 tickets sold so far   [28 sellouts/254 showings | 4666/21594 seats left  | 78.39% sold]

*EM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

 

 

WEEKEND INFO: (all IW information is for 4 days before release)

Fri:   2 sellouts/380 showings (+0/+1)  [IW: 0/229]

Sat:  0 sellouts/376 showings                [IW: 0/225]

Sun: 0 sellouts/354 showings                [IW: 0/218]

 

Sellouts:  28/254  (+6/+0) [2D: 23/209 (+3/+0) | 3D: 5/45 (+3/+0)]

 

Breakdown of seat information in spoiler box:

Spoiler

Reserved seating information: 225 screens [IW: 102 reserved seating info at same point in time]

 

100%:    28* [+6] [IW: 5]

90-95%: 61  [+4] [IW: 15]

80-89%: 48  [-4]  [IW: 19]

70-79%: 33  [nc]  [IW: 29]

60-69%: 20  [-3]  [IW: 13]

50-59%: 14  [+2] [IW: 8]

40-49%:   2  [-1]  [IW: 3]

30-39%:   3  [-3]  [IW: 4]

20-29%:   7  [+2] [IW: 3]

10-19%:   2  [nc]  [IW: 0]

0-9%:       9  [-3]  [IW: 3]

 

* includes two sellouts from non-reserved seating showings

[Ledmonkey96]

I suppose hoping for 30k pre-sales is a bit much at this point. Unless a bunch of screens get added

[Eric Duncan]

Movie/Time	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
Avengers: Endgame	26,081	27,623	33,668	26,817	21,975	19,606	36,215
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days	7 days	6 days	5 days
Detective Pikachu	350	258	240	234	201	165	220
	25 days	24 days	23 days	22 days	21 days	20 days	19 days
John Wick 3	1,361	734	601	291	194	140	187
	32 days	31 days	30 days	29 days	28 days	27 days	26 days
Secret Life of Pets 2	11	11	12	13	10	8	10
	53 days	52 days	51 days	50 days	49 days	48 days	47 days

 

Endgame

Last 7 Days (11-5)

194% of Black Panther (391.7M)

143% of Infinity War (368.5M)

292% of Captain Marvel (448.9M)

 

Day 17-5

188% of Black Panther (379.4M)

160% of Infinity War (411.3M)

358% of Captain Marvel (550.2M)

 

Day 22-5

185% of Infinity War (476.5M)

444% of Captain Marvel (681.7M)

 

Cumulative (minus first two days)

125% of Infinity War (322.5M)

313% of Captain Marvel (481.2M)

 

Before we have more comps tomorrow, it feels like the sky's the limit for Endgame at the moment.

 

Pikachu

Day 23-19

49% of Shazam (26.4M)

 

Last 7 Days (25-19)

49% of Incredibles 2 (90.5M)

273% of The Grinch (184.7M)

96% of Dragon 3 (52.8M)

 

Day 28-19

59% of Incredibles 2 (107.1M)

312% of The Grinch (210.6M)

123% of Dragon 3 (67.6M)

 

Day 30-19

89% of Incredibles 2 (163.3M)

202% of Dragon 3 (111M)

 

Cumulative

40% of Incredibles 2 (73.1M)

173% of Dragon 3 (95M)

 

This still has a pretty wide open range, although I guess somewhere between the lowest and highest Incredibles comps is where we should see the movie land (I know, large range)

 

Wick

Last 7 Days (32-26)

35% of Captain Marvel (53M)

 

Day 39-26

23% of Captain Marvel (35.4M)

 

Also a pretty big range too, but it's a bit smaller, and 35-55 meets the expectations people here have. Hopefully it hits the upper range.

 

Pets

First 12 Days

12% of Lego 2 (4.1M)

 

Still can't do any legit comps with this yet lol

Edited April 22, 2019 by CoolEric258

[Porthos]

45 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

I suppose hoping for 30k pre-sales is a bit much at this point. Unless a bunch of screens get added

 

[Porthos]

Detective Pikachu Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	78	8763	9170	4.44%

 

Total Shows Added Since Thr:              6

Total Seats Added Since Thr:          1161

Total Seats Sold Since Thr:                 52

 

I don't have any good comps like Incredibles 2, so these will have to do.  Use with caution:

 

.3156x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 18 days before release.           [JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales while Pika Pika has 29]

.2518x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald 18 days before release. [FB2 had 30 days of pre-sales while Pika Pika has 29]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

JW2 (T-18)             280  tickets sold in that time period [0 sellouts/97 showings     |   9338/10113 seats left  |  7.66% sold]

Pika (JW adj)* (T-18)     22  tickets sold in that time period [0 sellouts/78 showings     |    7790/8123 seats left   |  4.10% sold]

FB2 (T-18)              142 tickets sold in that time period [0 sellouts/94 showings     |  11963/13377 seats left | 10.57% sold] 

Pika (FBadj)** (T-18)     40  tickets sold in that time period [0 sellouts/72 showings      |    8280/8636 seats left  |  4.12% sold]    

*  Pika (JW adj) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

**Pika (FB adj) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

 

====

 

Next Update: Thr Night (4/25).

Edited April 22, 2019 by Porthos
Forgot to clear out Thr info for # of tickets sold. Sigh.

[TalismanRing]

Local Regal NYC - Count as of Late Sunday Evening.

• I count all seats including wheel chair & companion which make up 5-6% of the seats per showing
• Thur: Fan Event, RPX & 2D are near sell outs. 
• Thur: Theater still hasn't made live two 2D showings 
• Thur: 3D filling up - only late night seats available so they'll eventually sell (damn it)

 

THURSDAY
FAN EVENT	257	251	97.66%
RPX
6pm	320	308
10pm	320	298
	640	606	94.69%
2D
6:15pm	255	228
6:30pm	301	280
7pm	301	287
8pm	248	237
9pm	301	292
10:15pm	255	232
10:30pm	301	271
	1,962	1,827	93.11%
3D
7:15pm	256	235
7:30pm	218	180
7:40pm	205	177
11pm	301	234
11:15pm	256	164
11:30pm	205	113
11:45pm	218	73
12:05am	218	88
	1,877	1,264	67.34%
TOTAL	4,736	3,948	83.36%
FSS	SEATS	FRIDAY	%	SATURDAY	%	SUNDAY	%
RPX
11am	320	256		269		230
3pm	320	264		252		254
7pm	320	270		242		137
11pm	320	265		238		38
	1,280	1,055	82.42%	1,005	78.51%	659	51.48%
2D
9am	301	191		185		63
9:30am	246	101		143		37
10:30am	255	154		188		100
11:30am	257	164		182		127
12:50pm	301	185		215		144
1:20pm	246	168		188		127
2:30pm	255	188		212		155
3:30pm	257	188		200		180
4:45pm	301	236		226		161
5:15pm	246	205		180		118
6:30pm	255	231		197		144
7:30pm	257	224		181		126
8:40pm	301	259		217		83
9:10pm	246	215		181		39
10:30pm	255	206		194		25
11:30pm	257	189		156		x
12:30am	301	185		43		x
	4,537	3,289	72.49%	3,088	68.06%	1,629	40.94%
3D
9:15am	205	37		17		7
10am	256	80		75		35
12pm	301	85		95		54
1:05pm	205	11		30		7
1:50pm	246	66		74		51
2:45pm	248	8		19		18
4pm	301	100		125		61
5:45pm	256	160		115		34
6:45pm	248	97		27		20
8pm	301	234		158		27
9:40pm	256	205		84		18
10:45pm	248	128		11		6
12am	301	40		8		x
	3,372	1,251	37.09%	838	24.85%	338	11.00%
TOTAL	9,189	5,595	60.88%	4,931	53.66%	2,626	31.52%
	[8,330]
FSS TOTAL	26,708	13,152	49.24%
TFSS	31,444	17,100	54.38%

 

Tickets sold since my Late Friday Night Sales Count

 

FSS - 1,608  & Increased from 43.22%

TFSS - 1,741 & Increased from 48.84%

Edited April 22, 2019 by TalismanRing

[Darth Lehnsherr]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Heh.

 

====

 

Maybe I should expand on my... hesitation on seeing 30k worth of pre-sales for Thr in the Greater Sacto region.

Right now I can track the seat level info of 225 showings out of 254 total showings.  In those 225 showings, there are 26,037 seats that were/are for sale (78.24% sold at the moment).

 

That means that the "average" showing is around 116 seat capacity (rounded up).

 

To just get to 30k total seats available, never mind sold, would require 34 more reserved seating showings at 117 seats on average (30,015 total).  THEN every last showing has to sell out (well except for 15 seats). 

 

If we presume something like 90% of all seats sold (IW finished at 86.64%), that'd require 33,333 total seats available.  Again at around 116 seats per showing, we'd be looking at needing 63 more reserved seating showings.

 

And since i reckon that the showings that are going to get squeezed in will probably be the smaller auditoriums, that number of reserved seating showings needed will probably go up.

 

---

 

Now, this IS Endgame, so I refuse to say 30k worth of pre-sales can't happen/is impossible.

 

But... I stand by my gif choice is how I will put it.

Edited April 22, 2019 by Porthos

[Krissykins]

20 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

 

The Force Awakens @ $57 million. For comparison, Infinity War was $39m and 2nd place is Last Jedi @ $45m.

Shows started at 7pm.

Thanks!