The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

What if indeed? A simple question deserves a simple answer — victory.

 

 

i'm so conflicted on whether to join this. I don't think it'll happen but if it does I wanna be able to gloat

[HouseOfTheSun]

Can you imagine if we didn’t have any Presales info and just saw 300 million unfold in real time over the weekend. 

[Ledmonkey96]

Just now, HouseOfTheSun said:

Can you imagine if we didn’t have any Presales info and just saw 300 million unfold in real time over the weekend. 

Imagine if that was the case WW and 1 billion came out of nowhere

[stfletch]

OK, so now the fun starts... this link from AKValley has now started showing Avenger Endgame http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt

 

From this we can see how many Fandango Pulse "tickets" (I will use units from now on, as we know it's not actual individual tickets that are tracked) have been sold for each day of the first weekend, by which day they were sold. In this calculation I have included an estimate of the number of units sold during the first couple of days when Pulse was down. Based on the comment from Fandango that AEG outsold AIW 5:1 in first week, I believe this to be around 360,000 units. I used the split of THU:FRI:SAT:SUN from the few days after Pulse was back to portion out the tickets to each of the days (in all likelihood the first day probably saw more sales weighted towards Thursday but I have no way of estimating by how much). In total this gives us as of Monday 4/22/2019, 9pm CST.

 

THU	220,543
FRI	186,674
SAT	173,416
SUN	119,706
TOTAL	700,338

 

We can compare this with how many units were sold for Infinity War as at the end of the Monday of opening week (using the historical data in the google docs on AKValleys FML website: https://fantasymovieleague.com/chatter/board/fml-main-chatter/topic/462064)

 

THU	135,699
FRI	119,025
SAT	95,621
SUN	51,258
TOTAL	401,603

And using the factor between the two and multiplying by AIW's actual box office totals during the weekend we can get the following estimate.

 

	AIW		Factor		AEG Est.
THU	$39,000,000	x	1.63	=	$63,384,138
FRI	$67,334,939	x	1.57	=	$105,605,430
SAT	$82,131,612	x	1.81	=	$148,951,640
SUN	$69,231,632	x	2.34	=	$161,680,661
TOTAL	$257,698,183				$479,621,869

 

Now obviously Fri through Sun are increasingly absurd. This is because the % walk-ups vs presales for AIW on those days would be much higher than what we are likely to get for AEG. But if we assume Thursday was almost entirely presales for both AIW and AEG (or at least that the % of presales to walk-ups won't be all THAT different), this could be a good estimate, or at least a good top estimate. One caveat is that there are still a couple of hours to go of Monday, so this estimate will actually increase until we get the final end-of-Monday total for AEG. I can also refine this estimate over the next few days using EOD presales from Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

TL;DR - Endgames has sold a fuck load of tickets already, and I believe the preview record is toast!

 

Edited April 23, 2019 by stfletch

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, stfletch said:

OK, so now the fun starts... this link from AKValley has now started showing Avenger Endgame http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt

 

From this we can see how many Fandango Pulse "tickets" (I will use units from now on, as we know it's not actual individual tickets that are tracked) have been sold for each day of the first weekend, by which day they were sold. In this calculation I have included an estimate of the number of units sold during the first couple of days when Pulse was down. Based on the comment from Fandango that AEG outsold AIW 5:1 in first week, I believe this to be around 360,000 units. I used the split of THU:FRI:SAT:SUN from the few days after Pulse was back to portion out the tickets to each of the days (in all likelihood the first day probably saw more sales weighted towards Thursday but I have no way of estimating by how much). In total this gives us as of Monday 4/22/2019, 9pm CST.

 

THU	220,543
FRI	186,674
SAT	173,416
SUN	119,706
TOTAL	700,338

 

We can compare this with how many units were sold for Infinity War as at the end of the Monday of opening week (using the historical data in the google docs on AKValleys FML website: https://fantasymovieleague.com/chatter/board/fml-main-chatter/topic/462064)

 

THU	135,699
FRI	119,025
SAT	95,621
SUN	51,258
TOTAL	401,603

And using the factor between the two and multiplying by AIW's actual box office totals during the weekend we can get the following estimate.

 

	AIW		Factor		AEG Est.
THU	$39,000,000	x	1.63	=	$63,384,138
FRI	$67,334,939	x	1.57	=	$105,605,430
SAT	$82,131,612	x	1.81	=	$148,951,640
SUN	$69,231,632	x	2.34	=	$161,680,661
TOTAL	$257,698,183				$479,621,869

 

Now obviously Fri through Sun are increasingly absurd. This is because the % walk-ups vs presales for AIW on those days would be much higher than what we are likely to get for AEG. But if we assume Thursday was almost entirely presales for both AIW and AEG (or at least that the % of presales to walk-ups won't be all THAT different), this could be a good estimate, or at least a good top estimate. One caveat is that there are still a couple of hours to go of Monday, so this estimate will actually increase until we get the final end-of-Monday total for AEG. I can also refine this estimate over the next few days using EOD presales from Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

TL;DR - Endgames has sold a fuck load of tickets already!

 

Ok, now I believe in preview record for sure

[JB33]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Ok, now I believe in preview record for sure

Yep. Don't want to say that seals it but....

[Porthos]

   NO CAPTAIN MARVEL/ENDGAME DOUBLE FEATURES AT THE LOCAL DRIVE-IN   

 

At least for Thr night.  They don't have the rest of the OW up yet.

 

===

 

Can't say anything else about other drive-ins, but looks like Disney is really cracking the whip on showtimes for EG.

 

(also perhaps slightly temper CM expectations if this is being repeated nationwide - though of course spillover from sold out EG shows might wreck that calculation entirely)

 

Edited April 23, 2019 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, stfletch said:

OK, so now the fun starts... this link from AKValley has now started showing Avenger Endgame http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt

 

From this we can see how many Fandango Pulse "tickets" (I will use units from now on, as we know it's not actual individual tickets that are tracked) have been sold for each day of the first weekend, by which day they were sold. In this calculation I have included an estimate of the number of units sold during the first couple of days when Pulse was down. Based on the comment from Fandango that AEG outsold AIW 5:1 in first week, I believe this to be around 360,000 units. I used the split of THU:FRI:SAT:SUN from the few days after Pulse was back to portion out the tickets to each of the days (in all likelihood the first day probably saw more sales weighted towards Thursday but I have no way of estimating by how much). In total this gives us as of Monday 4/22/2019, 9pm CST.

 

THU	220,543
FRI	186,674
SAT	173,416
SUN	119,706
TOTAL	700,338

 

We can compare this with how many units were sold for Infinity War as at the end of the Monday of opening week (using the historical data in the google docs on AKValleys FML website: https://fantasymovieleague.com/chatter/board/fml-main-chatter/topic/462064)

 

THU	135,699
FRI	119,025
SAT	95,621
SUN	51,258
TOTAL	401,603

And using the factor between the two and multiplying by AIW's actual box office totals during the weekend we can get the following estimate.

 

	AIW		Factor		AEG Est.
THU	$39,000,000	x	1.63	=	$63,384,138
FRI	$67,334,939	x	1.57	=	$105,605,430
SAT	$82,131,612	x	1.81	=	$148,951,640
SUN	$69,231,632	x	2.34	=	$161,680,661
TOTAL	$257,698,183				$479,621,869

 

Now obviously Fri through Sun are increasingly absurd. This is because the % walk-ups vs presales for AIW on those days would be much higher than what we are likely to get for AEG. But if we assume Thursday was almost entirely presales for both AIW and AEG (or at least that the % of presales to walk-ups won't be all THAT different), this could be a good estimate, or at least a good top estimate. One caveat is that there are still a couple of hours to go of Monday, so this estimate will actually increase until we get the final end-of-Monday total for AEG. I can also refine this estimate over the next few days using EOD presales from Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

TL;DR - Endgames has sold a fuck load of tickets already!

 

Also do you know what IW's Thursday #s for EOD Wednesday were? This is really great work btw

Edited April 23, 2019 by Menor

[XXR vs XXR]

Great job @stfletch 

 

 

 

[KP1025]

8 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Imagine if that was the case WW and 1 billion came out of nowhere

Endgame's going to smash the fastest to $1 billion WW record, and I suspect nothing else will challenge it for a very long time. Infinity War currently holds the record at 11 Days, but Endgame will do it in just 5 days thanks to China opening earlier this time. 

[stfletch]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

Also do you know what IW's Thursday #s for EOD Wednesday were? This is really great work btw

Indeed I do... By end of each day From Monday through Thursday it was:

 

		2018-04-23	2018-04-24	2018-04-25	2018-04-26
		MON	TUE	WED	THU
2018-04-26	THU	135,699	150,926	170,797	204,244
2018-04-27	FRI	119,025	136,046	156,701	177,694
2018-04-28	SAT	95,621	108,364	123,769	136,023
2018-04-29	SUN	51,258	58,847	67,711	74,892
	TOTAL	401,603	454,183	518,978	592,853

[Nero]

6 hours ago, terrestrial said:

 

 

How AMC Theatres Is Prepping For The ‘Avengers: Endgame’ Onslaught This Weekend

 

https://deadline.com/2019/04/avengers-endgame-amc-theaters-showtimes-advance-ticket-sales-1202599869/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

@Agafin It's happening 😮

[Jonan23]

11 hours ago, terrestrial said:

 

If I remember it right its either 2D and 3D or IMAX / non IMAX

 

The ones usually posting and reading here a lot should know more, but as no one had answered till now....

 

 

 

Not 100% sure but I think he meant to ask, if those numbers are actual at that moment numbers or estimates. Finish I am not sure if meant for the day or....

 

In my past I lived for many years in Munich (~ 1.1m plus suburbs). Now I live in a hamlet 😉

The first time in a sold out cinema was for Woodstook (documentary), repeatedly at times in a situation even a solo person got no place I was in the later '70 and '80. SW,... comes to mind.

Once they let a few of us in to sit on the floor at the wall (on thick motocycle leather jackets).

 

Later Speed, Avatar,....

Not that seldom 😉

Thanks a lot for the reply I really appreciate it.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, stfletch said:

Indeed I do... By end of each day From Monday through Thursday it was:

 

		2018-04-23	2018-04-24	2018-04-25	2018-04-26
		MON	TUE	WED	THU
2018-04-26	THU	135,699	150,926	170,797	204,244
2018-04-27	FRI	119,025	136,046	156,701	177,694
2018-04-28	SAT	95,621	108,364	123,769	136,023
2018-04-29	SUN	51,258	58,847	67,711	74,892
	TOTAL	401,603	454,183	518,978	592,853

 

So Endgame is already 20% above where IW was through Thursday.....

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, stfletch said:

Indeed I do... By end of each day From Monday through Thursday it was:

 

		2018-04-23	2018-04-24	2018-04-25	2018-04-26
		MON	TUE	WED	THU
2018-04-26	THU	135,699	150,926	170,797	204,244
2018-04-27	FRI	119,025	136,046	156,701	177,694
2018-04-28	SAT	95,621	108,364	123,769	136,023
2018-04-29	SUN	51,258	58,847	67,711	74,892
	TOTAL	401,603	454,183	518,978	592,853

So a final of 300k or so would get the preview record assuming similar ratios. Will only need about 80k to get there which should be very doable.

[FlashMaster659]

Well played @stfletch

[Ledmonkey96]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

 

So Endgame is already 20% above where IW was through Thursday.....

 

Mind you this is before the normal late additions that come in over the week as schedules are finalized. Sure some theaters might not be able to squeeze extra showings in but others can and will.

[Legion Again]

I have decided that @stfletch is no man, but a deity.

[XXR vs XXR]

One thing to keep in mind when accounting for this data is that presales are expanding. It’s not linear. I’d adjust IW numbers upward by at least 15-20% just to account for the conversion of buyers and Fandango expanding their range. 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

One thing to keep in mind when accounting for this data is that presales are expanding. It’s not linear. I’d adjust IW numbers upward by at least 15-20% just to account for the conversion of buyers and Fandango expanding their range. 

 

IW was only a year ago though. 20% seems like quite a bit. Also given Deadline's numbers these Pulse estimations seem to actually be lowballing Endgame! lol

Edited April 23, 2019 by Menor