The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Stewart]

4 minutes ago, bcf26 said:

My parents asked me if Endgame is Avengers 4 or Avengers 3 Part 2. I told them to give me a minute and I'll ask the experts.

 

So, what you guys say?

Well, I'd go with MCU: Part 22 to be completely safe

[CloneWars]

22 minutes ago, bcf26 said:

My parents asked me if Endgame is Avengers 4 or Avengers 3 Part 2. I told them to give me a minute and I'll ask the experts.

 

So, what you guys say?

Both

[sahmeelg]

25 minutes ago, bcf26 said:

My parents asked me if Endgame is Avengers 4 or Avengers 3 Part 2. I told them to give me a minute and I'll ask the experts.

 

So, what you guys say?

It's movie 4 under the Avengers franchise, but it's basically season finale, as Feige dubbed the 22-episodic films The Infinity Saga.

[Porthos]

Avengers: Endgame Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	31	283	5903	26925	78.08%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today:               3 (including one non-reserved seating theater)

Total Showings Added Today:          29 (including 13 non-reserved seating theaters [7 of which were from the local drive-in])

Total Seats Added Today:               888

Total Seats Sold Today:                  651

 

Infinity War Comps:

1.7291x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 3 days before release [Infinity War has 41 days of pre−sales compared to Endgame's 23 days]
1.3273x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night. [51.77m]
1.1625x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night at the exact same theaters in town. [45.34m]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally.

 

IW (T-3)                549 tickets sold that day   [  6 sellouts/151 showings | 3858/13693 seats left  | 72.37% sold]      

EG (adj*):                545 tickets sold today       [31 sellouts/283 showings | 5009/22482 seats left  | 77.72% sold]

EG (exact**):             330 tickets sold today       [30 sellouts/236 showings | 3168/18471 seats left  | 82.85% sold]

---

IW (final):   13164 tickets sold at stop [59 sellouts/182 showings | 1195/15159 seats left  | 86.64% sold]

EG (adj*):   17473 tickets sold so far   [31 sellouts/283 showings | 5009/22482 seats left  | 77.72% sold]

EG (exact**):  15303 tickets sold so far   [30 sellouts/236 showings | 3168/18471 seats left  | 82.85% sold]

----

* EG (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

** EG (exact) is the number of tickets sold at the EXACT same theaters in town for a pure like-for-like comparison.

 

OTHER COMPS:

Spoiler

Captain Marvel:

Spoiler

 

3.4378x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel 3 days before release. [CM had 58 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
1.9920x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel at stop of tracking.     [41.24m]

 

CM (T-3):          551 tickets sold that day   [1 sellout/155 showings  | 10034/16149 seats left  | 37.87% sold]

CM (final):     10553 tickets sold at stop   [8 sellouts/216 showings    | 9439/19992 seats left  | 52.79% sold]

EG:                21022 tickets sold so far    [31 sellouts/283 showings  | 5903/26925 seats left   | 78.08% sold]

NOTE: I have the same sources of tracking info for Endgame as I did Captain Marvel, so the unadjusted comp is being used here, even though Endgame is playing in a couple more theaters locally. Check the main stat box for the number of tickets sold today if you want to compare it to the number of tickets Captain Marvel sold on its second day.

 

Selected Other Comps (T-3 and Final):

Spoiler

3.8717x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 3 days before release. [BP had 30 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
3.9993x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 3 days before release. [DP2 had 29 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
4.0968x as many tickets sold as Solo 3 days before release. [Solo had 30 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
6.0818x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 3 days before release. [JW2 had 22 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]

 

BP (T-3)             311 tickets sold that day [6 sellouts/81 showings     |  3766/8279 seats left    | 54.51% sold]

DP2 (T-3)          374 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/127 showings   |  9812/14181 seats left   | 30.81% sold] 

Solo (T-3)          196 tickets sold that day [1 sellout/103 showings    |  6745/11010 seats left   | 38.74% sold]

JW2 (T-3)           443 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/118 showings   |  9224/12097 seats left  | 23.75% sold]

EG(adj*) (T-3)      545 tickets sold today     [31 sellouts/283 showings | 5009/22482 seats left   | 77.72% sold]

*EM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

----

 

2.1561x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at stop of tracking.    [54.33m]
2.1484x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at stop of tracking.       [39.96m]
3.0183x as many tickets sold as Solo at stop of tracking.                  [42.56m]
2.8056x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking. [42.93m]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally.

 

BP (final):     8104 tickets sold at stop [26 sellouts/136 showings |  3377/11481 seats left  | 70.59% sold]

DP2 (final):   8133 tickets sold at stop [3 sellouts/169 showings   |  8357/16490 seats left  | 49.32% sold]

Solo (final):  5789 tickets sold at stop [5 sellouts/143 showings    |  7732/13521 seats left | 42.81% sold]

JW2 (final):   6228 tickets sold at stop [1 sellout/147 showings     |  7487/13715 seats left | 45.41% sold]

EG (adj*):   17473 tickets sold so far   [31 sellouts/283 showings | 5009/22482 seats left  | 77.72% sold]

*EM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

 

 

WEEKEND INFO: (all IW information is for 3 days before release)

Fri:   2 sellouts/389 showings (+0/+9)   [IW: 0/271]

Sat:  0 sellouts/389 showings (+0/+13) [IW: 0/271]

Sun: 0 sellouts/366 showings (+0/+12) [IW: 0/254]

 

Sellouts:  31/283  (+3/+29) [2D: 25/231 (+2/+22) | 3D: 6/52 (+1/+7)]

 

Breakdown of seat information in spoiler box:

Spoiler

Reserved seating information: 241 screens [+16] [IW: 112 reserved seating info at same point in time]

 

100%:    31* [+3] [IW: 6]

90-95%: 63  [+2] [IW: 16]

80-89%: 49  [+1] [IW: 23]

70-79%: 35  [+2] [IW: 29]

60-69%: 23  [+3] [IW: 15]

50-59%: 10  [-4]  [IW: 5]

40-49%:   1  [-1]  [IW: 2]

30-39%:   6  [+3] [IW: 4]

20-29%:   4  [-3]  [IW:4]

10-19%:   8  [+6] [IW: 3]

0-9%:     14  [+5] [IW: 5]

 

* includes three sellouts from non-reserved seating showings

[Legion Again]

Forgot to check the Fandango at the right time with the stuff happening in Endgame thread. Looks like it was probably ~54k? That’s less than 1.1x IW, but I don’t think more could really be expected with IW’s crazy week of release and all the good tickets gone already.

Edited April 23, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[TalismanRing]

15 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Forgot to check the Fandango at the right time with the stuff happening in Endgame thread. Looks like it was probably ~54k? That’s less than 1.1x IW, but I don’t think more could really be expected with IW’s crazy week of release and all the good tickets gone already.

 

From the hourly chart

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

 

It's 53,999

 

so yeah close to 54k

[That One Girl]

2 hours ago, JB33 said:

Wh...what?? How is any cinema in the world NOT showing EG?

 

My indie theater is not showing Endgame

[terrestrial]

3 hours ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Can you imagine if we didn’t have any Presales info and just saw 300 million unfold in real time over the weekend. 

Imagine looking at first loosely into BO in the '70, and increasingly in the '80 and have to travel to air-ports or main train stations to get your hands on cinema magazines, that got released with luck once a month to get input.

3 hours ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Imagine if that was the case WW and 1 billion came out of nowhere

see above

3 hours ago, dakus said:

In other news, my local 10 screen has officially put its weekend slate up, and it officially is NOT playing Endgame this weekend. I guess it truly needed to have room for 4 different showtimes for After, Missing Link, and Little each on Saturday. To make it even weirder, the theatre had (and is still airing) Captain Marvel and Penguins, so its clearly not an anti-Disney or anti-Marvel thing.

 

I can't believe that in a city of 130k people I need to literally travel to another city to see a non-3D showing of the widest release of all time.

 

3 hours ago, dakus said:

I really wish I knew

https://www.landmarkcinemas.com/showtimes/kelowna-grand-10

 

Quote

ATTENTION MOVIE LOVERS: We are currently experiencing difficulties with online ticketing. We apologize for the inconvenience and hope to restore service shortly.

 

Maybe they took it down bcs of that? I read repeatedly about cinemas having done that bcs of their computers could not handle the rush at all.

 

Or they wait for 2 weeks or so, knowing the most wont drive to another city, and screen it with better conditions for them? I think Disney want a high split for that one, one of our biggest cinema chains only started pre-sales rather recently, the others at the same time they started in the US, for that very reason. Depending on the kind of contracts they offer, the first ~ two weeks might be the worst.

 

Maybe one of the people here working for a cinema knows if the conditions this time got harsher again, see last years A IW too.

 

You could try to contact them in person

Edited April 23, 2019 by terrestrial

[terrestrial]

It got pointed out as correction I think, maybe its the term 'additional'?

 

Pamela McClintock‏Verified account @PamelaDayM 6 hours ago

More

Pamela McClintock Retweeted Hollywood Reporter

Lot’s of overtime pay for AMC employees: as of now, 29 locations will be open around the clock Thurs-Friday (2 days straight) while 18 more will be open Thurs-Sat or Friday-Sun (3 days straight). An additional 17 [corrected] will remain open open Thurs-Sun (4 days, 96 hours).

[Porthos]

With the pretty hefty increase in theaters for EG over IW, I'm becoming more confident in my adj comp (no extra sources of tracking) versus the exact comp (exact same theaters in town). Also, eyeballing it, the adj comp has been pretty much running neck and neck with IW over the last few days (not going to pull up the posts to check the exact ratio).

 

With both those points in mind, a thought experiment:

 

If EG (adj) sells EXACTLY the same amount of tickets as IW did over the next three days:

 

1.5597x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night. [60.83m]

2.5336x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at stop of tracking.    [63.85m]
2.5245x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at stop of tracking.       [46.96m]
3.5467x as many tickets sold as Solo at stop of tracking.                  [50.01m]
3.2967x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking. [50.44m]

 

Two comps says it makes it over TFA. Three others say it falls well short.  Throw out DP2 comp, as that didn't have 3D sales and it over-performed locally.  The cautionary tales are Solo and JW2, then.

 

I think this shows that EG has a very good chance at topping 57m.  But I might caution it being a cinch.  Those extra theaters will probably really help, along with the round-the-clock showings as some locations.

Even so, as has been mentioned, projections break down at high ends.  It's very possible, if not probable, that I can't catch a projection at the very upper end of tracking. So really your guess is as good as mine.

 

Just consider this a Thought Experiment, and nothing more.

 

(didn't put in the CM comp, as that's unadj and I don't have a good baseline estimate for this scenario)

Edited April 23, 2019 by Porthos

[Stewart]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

With the pretty hefty increase in theaters for EG over IW, I'm becoming more confident in my adj comp (no extra sources of tracking) versus the exact comp (exact same theaters in town). Also, eyeballing it, the adj comp has been pretty much running neck and neck with IW over the last few days (not going to pull up the posts to check the exact ratio).

 

With both those points in mind, a thought experiment:

 

If EG (adj) sells EXACTLY the same amount of tickets as IW did over the next three days:

 

1.5597x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night. [60.83m]

2.5336x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at stop of tracking.    [63.85m]
2.5245x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at stop of tracking.       [46.96m]
3.5467x as many tickets sold as Solo at stop of tracking.                  [50.01m]
3.2967x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking. [50.44m]

 

Two comps says it makes it over TFA. Three others say it falls well short.  Throw out DP2 comp, as that didn't have 3D sales and it over-performed locally.  The cautionary tales are Solo and JW2, then.

 

I think this shows that EG has a very good chance at topping 57m.  But I might caution it being a cinch.  Those extra theaters will probably really help, along with the round-the-clock showings as some locations.

Even so, as has been mentioned, projections break down at high ends.  It's very possible, if not probable, that I can't catch a projection at the very upper end of tracking. So really your guess is as good as mine.

 

Just consider this a Thought Experiment, and nothing more.

 

(didn't put in the CM comp, as that's unadj and I don't have a good baseline estimate for this scenario)

Interesting you post this, since I was wondering about Solo as a comparison.

 

Primarily because release dates aren't that far off, and with the excessive presales, this is looking to have a presale:WE ratio alike to SW, and we know that Solo played very much like a SW movie and lacked the walkups people expected. 

 

Though I think that'd be more accurate for the whole weekend than for Thursday, since on Thursday EG has just a bonkers numbers of showtimes never seen before, and likely never again.

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Interesting you post this, since I was wondering about Solo as a comparison.

 

Primarily because release dates aren't that far off, and with the excessive presales, this is looking to have a presale:WE ratio alike to SW, and we know that Solo played very much like a SW movie and lacked the walkups people expected. 

 

Though I think that'd be more accurate for the whole weekend than for Thursday, since on Thursday EG has just a bonkers numbers of showtimes never seen before, and likely never again.

Well, I never track into the OW and then we're dealing with all of the different internal multipliers.  But a point well taken.

 

--

 

The other caution I might throw out is that CM just went bananas here locally the last three/four days (fueled in part by a ridiculous amount of showings).  Enough so that the comps against IW and BP suggested around a 27m-28m preview number while the Solo/JW2/AM2 trifecta suggested a much closer to the mark 22m.

 

Ironically, it was the Venom comp (21.5m) which came the closest to the actual number (20.7m).

 

Frankly, I'd be worried that Sacto is once again over-predicting a Marvel movie if it wasn't for all of the nutty pre-sales everywhere else.

 

Starting tomorrow, I'll probably add in the Venom and AM&tW comps.  Mostly if I have time to pre-prep it on my spreadsheets.

[Biggestgeekever]

2019-04-23 01:00:00	1900	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2019-04-23 01:00:00	268	Avengers Endgame 3D (2019)
2019-04-23 01:00:00	128	Avengers Endgame The IMAX 2D Experience (2019)
2019-04-23 01:00:00	55	Avengers Endgame An IMAX 3D Experience (2019)
2019-04-23 01:00:00	54	The Curse of La Llorona

 

ABSOLUTE UNIT

[cdsacken]

4 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

 

I would just say look at the final 4 days for Captain Marvel vs Black Panther on Pulse. CM actually had more total sales, but we know that previews and OW came in 25% below BP. 

 

All I’m saying is, don’t be surprised if the linear numbers are off of the final by a decent margin.

Black Panther can't be compared to anything. It had the lasting effect of Star Wars films. It's my favorite CBM film yet still surprises me that it did that well. It basically equals the adjusted inflation of Avengers. I still can't believe that. DOM performance exceeded my wildest expectations by 250+ million.

 

[cdsacken]

7 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Ohh.

Not happening.

Lets shoot for previews and be happy. 

 

Star Wars Phantom Menace adjusts to 815 DOM and I've rarely been more disappointed in a film. It's amazing how much margin of error they have. It can almost suck and still do amazing.

[DeeCee]

The standard we don’t report is the standard we accept. 

[XXR vs XXR]

We will see how the trend continues, but as of right now Endgame is running 92% ahead of where it was through 5 updates yesterday.

[RealLyre]

my theater just added 3 more showings for "Wednesday previews"... 

 

we are officially opening the movie on a fucking Wednesday 

 

[Biggestgeekever]

11 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

We will see how the trend continues, but as of right now Endgame is running 92% ahead of where it was through 5 updates yesterday.

I could see Endgame having a very strong increase today because movies had an inflated Monday due to the holiday. 

[Blaze Heatnix]

6 hours ago, sahmeelg said:

It's movie 4 under the Avengers franchise, but it's basically season finale, as Feige dubbed the 22-episodic films The Infinity Saga.

 

It's not season finale. Kevin Feige says Phase 3 ends with Spider Man Far From Home.