The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Taruseth]

53 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

My place has 10 screens for midnight, 12 for peak Thursday. 

What???

How many screens does the cinema have??

 

The local cinema (11 screens) has 3 for tonight (1 Double Feature, 1 Englisch, 1 German) and 2.5 for tomorrow (3 for Thursday-Sunday), 5 showings tomorrow and 6 on Thursday-Sunday, but the earliest show starts at 2 pm.

[SchumacherFTW]

14 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

What???

How many screens does the cinema have??

 

The local cinema (11 screens) has 3 for tonight (1 Double Feature, 1 Englisch, 1 German) and 2.5 for tomorrow (3 for Thursday-Sunday), 5 showings tomorrow and 6 on Thursday-Sunday, but the earliest show starts at 2 pm.

16 screens, one is an IMAX, another is 4DX. 

[poweranimals]

Wow. Captain Marvel is currently #3 on MT.com and #1 isn't even out yet. That's pretty impressive.

[Ars]

Hey all, longtime lurker, first time poster, figured I'll join in on the fun here before Thanos destroys this weekend 😉

 

Here's some numbers I've pulled from the newest Cineplex here in Ottawa for Endgame(bolded are effectively sell outs):

 

Cineplex Cinemas Lansdowne and VIP

Thursday April 25, 2019

 

VIP 3D

6:40pm - 75/78 (96% sold) - Only handicap seats left

8:00pm - 76/82 (92.7% sold)

10:50pm - 73/78 (93.6% sold)

12:15pm - 59/82 (72% sold)

 

VIP

6:00pm - 63/66 (95.5% sold) - Only handicap seats left

7:20pm - 106/111 (95.5% sold) - Only handicap seats left

10:10pm - 61/66 (92% sold)

11:30pm - 106/111 (95.5% sold) - Only handicap seats left

 

UltraAVX 3D Atmos

7:00pm - 245/253 (96.8% sold) - Only handicap seats left

11:00pm - 233/253 (92% sold)

 

Regular 3D

6:30pm - 193/276 (69.9% sold)

10:30pm - 98/276 (35.5% sold)

 

Regular

6:00pm - 186/245 (75.9% sold)

10:00pm - 85/245 (34.7% sold)

11:15pm - 35/150 (23% sold)

 

Premium formats are destroying the non premium formats at this particular theatre. Surprised that even some of the late night showings are almost sold out for the premium formats.

[Ledmonkey96]

I thought my theater was done adding shows but they just added another for Friday morning 12:15PM, currently at 80 shows for the weekend.

[VanillaSkies]

17 minutes ago, Ars said:

Hey all, longtime lurker, first time poster, figured I'll join in on the fun here before Thanos destroys this weekend 😉

 

Here's some numbers I've pulled from the newest Cineplex here in Ottawa for Endgame(bolded are effectively sell outs):

 

Cineplex Cinemas Lansdowne and VIP

Thursday April 25, 2019

 

VIP 3D

6:40pm - 75/78 (96% sold) - Only handicap seats left

8:00pm - 76/82 (92.7% sold)

10:50pm - 73/78 (93.6% sold)

12:15pm - 59/82 (72% sold)

 

VIP

6:00pm - 63/66 (95.5% sold) - Only handicap seats left

7:20pm - 106/111 (95.5% sold) - Only handicap seats left

10:10pm - 61/66 (92% sold)

11:30pm - 106/111 (95.5% sold) - Only handicap seats left

 

UltraAVX 3D Atmos

7:00pm - 245/253 (96.8% sold) - Only handicap seats left

11:00pm - 233/253 (92% sold)

 

Regular 3D

6:30pm - 193/276 (69.9% sold)

10:30pm - 98/276 (35.5% sold)

 

Regular

6:00pm - 186/245 (75.9% sold)

10:00pm - 85/245 (34.7% sold)

11:15pm - 35/150 (23% sold)

 

Premium formats are destroying the non premium formats at this particular theatre. Surprised that even some of the late night showings are almost sold out for the premium formats.

Welcome fellow Ottawa-ian!

 

Edited April 23, 2019 by VanillaSkies

[Porthos]

On 4/22/2019 at 2:26 AM, Porthos said:

Now if you want something to root for, I do think there is an outside shot of EG hitting 300 showtimes for Thr.

 

Spoiler

Spoiler

A theater just added six showings to its Thr previews.  Greater Sacto total now at 289 showings with SMG's expansion still outstanding (not to mention other theaters' last minute additions).

 

 

Edited April 23, 2019 by Porthos

[Ledmonkey96]

So what do we think is a possibility for Previews at this point? Because Thursday previews over say Thor of CA:TFA OW would be hilarious.

 

Huh, the 8 screen Cinemark near me has a showing at 12:05AM.... Not sure I've ever seen any movie after midnight in the area.....

Edited April 23, 2019 by Ledmonkey96

[DeeCee]

Final Event George St update for sessions scheduled for today.  Sessions started about 40 minutes ago.

 

Basically all 8 VMAX are now sold out, all 4 4DX are sold out and all 16 Gold Class are sold out.

 

There's still plenty of seats available in regular 2D sessions.  Note these are mostly pretty crappy theatres and people know that.

 

The 7:30pm session in the 806 seat theatre only has 30 seats available.

 

https://www.eventcinemas.com.au/Cinema/George-Street

 

 

 

[Legion Again]

I won’t be around for the MT end of day until about an hour after, so someone else grab it if you’re in the mood. CM went crazy.

[TwoMisfits]

2nd local (Regal) posted...LOTS of splits (6 movies)...

 

NEW

Endgame (7 - 30 showings)

 

RETURNING

Curse of LL (1 - 6 showings)

Breakthrough (1 - 5 showings) - surprised, but this is one of the few theaters around showing this movie

Penguins/Dumbo (1 - 3 showings each) - seeing Penguins drop to a half screen again, but Dumbo staying, I gotta think this was a deal for booking Penguins last weekend - you can slice it, as long as you keep Dumbo, too:)...

Little/Pet Semetary (1 - Little only gets 1 showing while PS gets 4)

Shazam/Us (1 - Shazam gets 4 showings and Us just gets 1)

Captain Marvel (1 - 6 showings)

 

GONE

After, Hellboy, Missing Link, The Best of Enemies, HTTYD 3

[VanillaSkies]

Wow, Empire 25 in NYC just released it's full Thursday schedule and hardly anything is playing after 5pm that day that's not called Endgame, which isn't really a surprise. 

 

What is a surprise though. Shazam's last show of the day is 4:45pm, while Captain Marvel has a 7:20pm and 10:30pm show. 

I take it Disney ensures Captain Marvel would have full showings for the weekend... 

They haven't released their FSS schedule yet, but very interested to see if this pans out over the entire weekend too. I was definitely joking when I hinted in last weekends thread that Captain Marvel could move up to #2 this weekend..... but if it's the only other movie with full showtimes, that just might be true.

[Geveeso]

 

[XXR vs XXR]

2 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

I know the whole forum is focusing on China right now (and rightfully so) but here’s a little update

 

Endgame - Fandango - 14 Updates 

 

April 22 - 22982

April 23 - 30014 (+30.6%)

 

Endgame - Fandango - 17 Updates 

 

April 22 - 31270

April 23 - 37323 (+19.4%) 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, VenomXXR said:

 

Endgame - Fandango - 17 Updates 

 

April 22 - 31270

April 23 - 37323 (+19.4%) 

 

Discount Tuesday kicking in, hopefully it can get 60k

[MattW]

18 minutes ago, Geveeso said:

 

Later in that thread:

 

 

 

[VanillaSkies]

On 4/20/2019 at 11:44 AM, VanillaSkies said:

So, I decided to take a look at how Endgame is currently performing on the Monday/Tuesday at the same theater I'm tracking , Scotiabank Theatre Toronto, and the results are too interesting not to post, considering we are over a week away from these dates and they will grow quickly as the weekend continues to sell out!

 

Monday, April 29th

 

AVX - 11am (15/474)

          3pm (21/474)

          7pm (133/474)

          11pm (15/474)

 

IMAX - 10:30am (86/415)

             2:30pm (133/415)

             6:30pm  (225/415)

             10:30pm (108/415)

 

Total: 736

 

Tuesday, April 30th (cheap tickets)

 

AVX - 11am (7/474)

          3pm (60/474)

          7pm (261/474)

          11pm (6/474)

 

IMAX - 10:30am (79/415)

             2:30pm (155/415)

             6:30pm  (303/415)

             10:30pm (147/415)

 

Total: 1018 

 

Over 1000 tickets sold for Tuesday, April 29th already, more than a week ahead of time and before the full schedule is posted. And it's not a holiday. INSANE!!

Since we already know the weekend is insane everywhere, I decided to focus on the update on the Monday/Tuesday numbers. I've never seen this many showings/seats available for a non summer/holiday week day. 

 

Monday, April 29th

 

AVX - 11am (17/474)

          3pm (32/474)

          7pm (177/474)

          11pm (21/474)

 

IMAX - 10:30am (107/415)

             2:30pm (143/415)

             6:30pm  (245/415)

             10:30pm (144/415)

Regular (reserved seating)

             12:00pm (0/192) *just added

             12:30pm (0/231) *just added

             12:45pm (58/313)

             1:15pm (36/481) - *First 3 rows (77 seats) unavailable for this 558 seater

             1:30pm (0/231 ) *just added

             2:00pm (72/313)

             4:00pm (0/192) *just added

             4:30pm (0/231) *just added

             5:00pm (51/262)

             5:30pm (0/231) *just added

             6:00pm (20/320) 

             7:00pm (0/481) *First 3 rows (77 seats) unavailable for this 558 seater

             8:00pm (3/192) *just added

             8:30pm (0/231) *just added

             9:15pm (62/313)

             9:30pm (0/231) *just added

            10:00pm (40/280) 

 

Total (reserved): 1228 / 8281 (14.8%)

 

Regular (non-reserved seating)

No data

11:30 am, 3:30pm, 7:30pm

 

 

Tuesday, April 30th (cheap tickets)

AVX - 11am (28/474)

          3pm (78/474)

          7pm (301/474)

          11pm (17/474)

 

IMAX - 10:30am (94/415)

             2:30pm (190/415)

             6:30pm  (317/415)

             10:30pm (172/415)

Regular (reserved seating)

             11:30am (0/192) *just added 

             12:00pm (0/231) *just added

             12:30pm (0/241) *just added / *First 3 rows (72 seats) unavailable for this 313 seater

             12:45pm (48/313)

             1:30pm (0/231 ) *just added

             2:00pm (4/481) - *First 3 rows (77 seats) unavailable for this 558 seater

             3:30pm (0/192) *just added

             4:00pm (0/231) *just added

             4:30pm (0/241) *just added / *First 3 rows (72 seats) unavailable for this 313 seater

             5:00pm (172/313)

             5:30pm (0/231) *just added

             6:00pm (72/481) - *First 3 rows (77 seats) unavailable for this 558 seater

             7:30pm (0/192)*just added

             8:00pm (0/231) *just added

             8:30pm (0/241) *just added / *First 3 rows (72 seats) unavailable for this 313 seater

             9:15pm (151/313)

             9:30pm (0/231) *just added

            10:00pm (2/481) - *First 3 rows (77 seats) unavailable for this 558 seater

 

Total (reserved): 1646 / 8623 (19.1%)

 

Regular (non-reserved seating)

No data

2:45pm, 6:45pm, 10:45pm

[Birdo Mandingo]

45 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Wow, Empire 25 in NYC just released it's full Thursday schedule and hardly anything is playing after 5pm that day that's not called Endgame, which isn't really a surprise. 

 

What is a surprise though. Shazam's last show of the day is 4:45pm, while Captain Marvel has a 7:20pm and 10:30pm show. 

I take it Disney ensures Captain Marvel would have full showings for the weekend... 

They haven't released their FSS schedule yet, but very interested to see if this pans out over the entire weekend too. I was definitely joking when I hinted in last weekends thread that Captain Marvel could move up to #2 this weekend..... but if it's the only other movie with full showtimes, that just might be true.

I called over a month ago CM would see a nice bump from Endgame. Theaters are smart to keep it on at least 1 screen. TONS of people are going to watch endgame that did not watch CM.  They are going to see the poster still up when they go into see Endgame, and are going to want to see her solo(while still on the big screen) movie after Endgame blows them away.

[VanillaSkies]

I know this is the tracking thread, but just throwing it out there 98% on RT with 56 reviews in.

[stfletch]

Updating my post (given in Spoiler tags below) for final EOD Monday for exact comparison

 

AEG Fandango Units Sold as of EOD Opening Week Monday

THU	222,280
FRI	188,824
SAT	175,121
SUN	120,786
TOTAL	707,010

 

AIW Fandango Units Sold as of Opening Week Monday

THU	135,699
FRI	119,025
SAT	95,621
SUN	51,258
TOTAL	401,603

 

Hence, estimates are:

	AIW		Factor		AEG Est.
THU	$39,000,000	x	1.64	=	$63,883,353
FRI	$67,334,939	x	1.59	=	$106,821,730
SAT	$82,131,612	x	1.83	=	$150,416,114
SUN	$69,231,632	x	2.36	=	$163,139,363
TOTAL	$257,698,183				$484,260,560

 

Same caveats as below apply. Estimate will probably come down slightly based on EOD Tuesday and EOD Wednesday as I imagine Thursday is already close to saturation point for AEG whereas at the same point AIW probably still had more room to grow. Still sticking with a $60-$65M previews prediction.

 

 

Spoiler

OK, so now the fun starts... this link from AKValley has now started showing Avenger Endgame http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt

 

From this we can see how many Fandango Pulse "tickets" (I will use units from now on, as we know it's not actual individual tickets that are tracked) have been sold for each day of the first weekend, by which day they were sold. In this calculation I have included an estimate of the number of units sold during the first couple of days when Pulse was down. Based on the comment from Fandango that AEG outsold AIW 5:1 in first week, I believe this to be around 360,000 units. I used the split of THU:FRI:SAT:SUN from the few days after Pulse was back to portion out the tickets to each of the days (in all likelihood the first day probably saw more sales weighted towards Thursday but I have no way of estimating by how much). In total this gives us as of Monday 4/22/2019, 9pm CST.

 

THU	220,543
FRI	186,674
SAT	173,416
SUN	119,706
TOTAL	700,338

 

We can compare this with how many units were sold for Infinity War as at the end of the Monday of opening week (using the historical data in the google docs on AKValleys FML website: https://fantasymovieleague.com/chatter/board/fml-main-chatter/topic/462064)

 

THU	135,699
FRI	119,025
SAT	95,621
SUN	51,258
TOTAL	401,603

And using the factor between the two and multiplying by AIW's actual box office totals during the weekend we can get the following estimate.

 

	AIW		Factor		AEG Est.
THU	$39,000,000	x	1.63	=	$63,384,138
FRI	$67,334,939	x	1.57	=	$105,605,430
SAT	$82,131,612	x	1.81	=	$148,951,640
SUN	$69,231,632	x	2.34	=	$161,680,661
TOTAL	$257,698,183				$479,621,869

 

Now obviously Fri through Sun are increasingly absurd. This is because the % walk-ups vs presales for AIW on those days would be much higher than what we are likely to get for AEG. But if we assume Thursday was almost entirely presales for both AIW and AEG (or at least that the % of presales to walk-ups won't be all THAT different), this could be a good estimate, or at least a good top estimate. One caveat is that there are still a couple of hours to go of Monday, so this estimate will actually increase until we get the final end-of-Monday total for AEG. I can also refine this estimate over the next few days using EOD presales from Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

TL;DR - Endgames has sold a fuck load of tickets already, and I believe the preview record is toast!

 

Edited April 23, 2019 by stfletch