The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Biggestgeekever]

13 minutes ago, Superdeluxe said:

AMC Lakewood has added another screen during normal movie going hours, and tacked on another showing with the rest of the other screens (several 12:30/1 am showings)

That theater is fucking crazy, it looks very likely to sell out every show this weekend. 

 

I've never actually been there, but I assume it's a pretty good AMC? (assuming you're also in the Seattle area).

[Cappoedameron]

Ugly Dolls was never gonna win. It was either gonna be destroyed by Endgame or completely overshadowed by Detective Pikachu opening the same weekend which is what was slated and then it moved.

 

I guess it hopes that parents will take their kids to go see a kids movie over a 3 hr epic.

Edited April 24, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[Nova]

8 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

No. Because Pikachu comes out in EG 3rd weekend and JW comes out it's 4th weekend. After this weekend demand won't be as high anymore.

 

Endgame is severely frontloaded for obvious reasons(Disney wants that record) and this likely means second weekend is going to have a big drop off and even more in the 3rd one.

 

Pikachu and Wick won't be effected by Endgame. Pikachu is safe according to many BOA's on Twitter and YT.

 

The same cannot be said for Ugly Dolls, that is R.I.P indeed.

Pikachu and Wick's sales are really bad the last couple days...if not more. There's no way to front that. They were both doing good initially and then dropped off and haven't recovered. They would both need to increase by a whole lot starting next to make up the ground they have lost. Wick is in a better spot since it has an extra weekend between it and End Game though to make up ground. 

 

Also what is with your weird obsession with Ugly Dolls? It's a movie that's on very little people's radar. Sucks that it's not looking to do well but it not doing well has no impact on your stan film Pikachu so what's the deal? 

 

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Endgame is severely frontloaded

Is it, though?

[Eric Duncan]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

Also what is with your weird obsession with Ugly Dolls? It's a movie that's on very little people's radar.

I'll have you know as a Kelly Clarkson stan who listens to Underneath the Tree every day in December that I am very offended by this erasure.

[Nova]

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

I'll have you know as a Kelly Clarkson stan who listens to Underneath the Tree every day in December that I am very offended by this erasure.

I love Kelly Clarkson. She is a national treasure. 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Is it, though?

This is semi-trolly, semi-serious.

 

Just what IS frontloaded for a film poised to make more than 300 its OW?  And  one that has a RT score currently off the charts?

 

Like, a lot of people might try to claim 2.5x would be a sign of average legs,  I would in turn say, hypothetically, that 310/775 would be pretty damn good.

 

At some point multiplier has to be ignored and the total much more important when viewing how the GA thought of a film.

 

[Biggestgeekever]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

This is semi-trolly, semi-serious.

 

Just what IS frontloaded for a film poised to make more than 300 its OW?  And  one that has a RT score currently off the charts?

 

Like, a lot of people might try to claim 2.5x would be a sign of average legs,  I would in turn say, hypothetically, that 310/775 would be pretty damn good.

 

At some point multiplier has to be ignored and the total much more important when viewing how the GA thought of a film.

 

Honestly, given the enormous Thursday presales, and the near nonstop blockbuster train from May 10 onwards, I think hitting a 2.4 multiplier would be great for this movie. Matching IW's multiplier would be incredible.

[el sid]

Pulse today 8:35-8:49 EST:

 

Avengers: Endgame: 1.560/15 minutes (probably +/- 5 tickets) – last Wednesday at that time it were 390/15, so factor 4. Due to the Pulse crash caused by exactly that movie I have only Thursday numbers for Shazam! (53.5M OW) which were 175/15, Captain Marvel (153.1M OW) had on Wednesday at that time 650/15. So A:E sold about 2.4x as many tickets as CM at the same time.
 

And Pulse 10:50-11:04 EST:

Avengers: Endgame: 3.622/15 minutes (I counted 5 minutes and took the average per minute) – last Wednesday at that time it were 576/15, so ca. factor 6.3. Shazam! had on Thursday at that time 322/15 and CM had on Wednesday at that time 884/15. Unbelievable, A:E at the moment sells more than 4x as many tickets as CM did at the same time.

I thought because of the giant presales of A:E over the last weeks that it could slow down a little bit in its last week before the release but it doesn't seem so at all. Idk what to predict for OW, I'm completely clueless...

PS: I also don't worry about the not so high tickets sales for other movies especially John Wick 3 and Detective Pikachu. Almost nobody is interested in anything else than A:E at the moment and later there's still enough time left to recover.

Edited April 24, 2019 by el sid

[Nova]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

This is semi-trolly, semi-serious.

 

Just what IS frontloaded for a film poised to make more than 300 its OW?  And  one that has a RT score currently off the charts?

 

Like, a lot of people might try to claim 2.5x would be a sign of average legs,  I would in turn say, hypothetically, that 310/775 would be pretty damn good.

 

At some point multiplier has to be ignored and the total much more important when viewing how the GA thought of a film.

 

I think what @Cappoedameron was trying to say (which they've mentioned in the Pikachu thread) is that since End Game is gonna open so big, they're thinking it's bound to fall much more than the typical CBM. So it would be "front loaded" in that sense.

 

But it has not slowed down on Pulse at all and its sales are through the roof.....so I wouldn't make statements like that until I see the second weekend drop, which maybe good because of spill over and repeat viewings. I mean End Game is a film that can make anywhere from $750M-$1B domestically imo 

Edited April 24, 2019 by Nova

[YM!]

25 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

No. Because Pikachu comes out in EG 3rd weekend and JW comes out it's 4th weekend. After this weekend demand won't be as high anymore.

 

Endgame is severely frontloaded for obvious reasons(Disney wants that record) and this likely means second weekend is going to have a big drop off and even more in the 3rd one.

 

Pikachu and Wick won't be effected by Endgame. Pikachu is safe according to many BOA's on Twitter and YT.

 

The same cannot be said for Ugly Dolls, that is R.I.P indeed.

Dude, I say this as someone who wants PikaPika to do big you need to freshen up on your box office/tracking knowledge. These few days have been bad and Endgame is obviously going to affect Pikachu and judging from presales from Endgame, I think it’s obvious it won’t be as frontloaded as CW or DH2. It could jump from IT and it can fall. 

 

Also why slam Uglydolls, I agree it’ll be lucky for $50M DOM but it’s such low hanging fruit at this point and uncalled for.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Honestly, given the enormous Thursday presales, and the near nonstop blockbuster train from May 10 onwards, I think hitting a 2.4 multiplier would be great for this movie. Matching IW's multiplier would be incredible.

There's soooo much spillover that I think the multi is gonna get boosted simply from that.

 

Like, it's a weird hybridization of Black Panther and The Force Awakens when it comes to spillover.  EG has the hype of TFA (if not more), but TFA had the xmas holidays, so it was able to maximize spillover in a way that Endgame simply won't be able to replicate.  BP had a holiday Monday followed by Discount Tuesday.  But the sheer amount of spillover from the OW I'm already seeing is just amazing.

 

I really don't know where this is gonna go before it starts to taper off.

 

[YM!]

16 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I'll have you know as a Kelly Clarkson stan who listens to Underneath the Tree every day in December that I am very offended by this erasure.

Man I don’t know what but there’s been so much men of culture these past few days.

[cdsacken]

310 with 2.5 legs is 775 which means a monster 3rd week probably 70+ million.

[Cappoedameron]

23 minutes ago, Nova said:

Pikachu and Wick's sales are really bad the last couple days...if not more. There's no way to front that. They were both doing good initially and then dropped off and haven't recovered. They would both need to increase by a whole lot starting next to make up the ground they have lost. Wick is in a better spot since it has an extra weekend between it and End Game though to make up ground. 

 

Nothing has recovered cause Endgame is here and that's what all the trades said. Why not wait till Monday to start this? Geez in the other thread you said sales are good and now it's bad. I don't understand this back and forth mentality but then again I don't understand tracking box office yet. So IDK how it works.

[fabiopazzo2]

2019-04-24 17:00:33.134669 UTC
1	62.9%	Avengers: Endgame
2	6.7%	The Curse of La Llorona
3	5.2%	Captain Marvel
4	4.2%	Jersey (Telugu)
5	4.1%	Shazam!

[Cappoedameron]

3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

310 with 2.5 legs is 775 which means a monster 3rd week probably 70+ million.

Pika is tracking on BOP for a 90+ OW.

[TalismanRing]

14 minutes ago, el sid said:

Pulse today 8:35-8:49 EST:

 

Avengers: Endgame: 1.560/15 minutes (probably +/- 5 tickets) – last Wednesday at that time it were 390/15, so factor 4. Due to the Pulse crash caused by exactly that movie I have only Thursday numbers for Shazam! (53.5M OW) which were 175/15, Captain Marvel (153.1M OW) had on Wednesday at that time 650/15. So A:E sold about 2.4x as many tickets as CM at the same time.
 

And Pulse 10:50-11:04 EST:

Avengers: Endgame: 3.622/15 minutes (I counted 5 minutes and took the average per minute) – last Wednesday at that time it were 576/15, so ca. factor 6.3. Shazam! had on Thursday at that time 322/15 and CM had on Wednesday at that time 884/15. Unbelievable, more than 4x the sold tickets for CM at the moment.

I thought because of the giant presales of A:E over the last weeks that it could slow down a little bit in its last week before the release but it doesn't seem so at all. Idk what to predict for OW, I'm completely clueless...

Some comps

 

Film Monday Tues Wed Thursday           Wonder Woman 15 avg (1pm) 41avg (4pm) 45 (4pm) 46 (10am), 125 (5pm) Spider-Man 15 avg (11am) 20 (3pm) 25 (10pm) 39 avg (12:30pm) 42 avg (3pm) , 54.2 (4pm) 49avg (9am), 110 (12pm), 138( 1pm) 174 (3:50pm), 216 (5:20pm) IT 20 avg (9pm)   90 (10:30pm) 25 (8:20am) 41(9am) 102 (12:20pm) 140 (1pm) 186 (4:50pm) Thor  13.5 (12pm) 25 (10am), 32 (10:30pm) 35 (9:55am), 49 (3:40), 47 (4:10pm) 103 (12:15) 112 (1:15pm), 145 (4pm) 175 (4:50) Justice League 11.4 (10:10am), 13.2 (11am), 19.8 (3pm) 16 (9am), 19.2 (10am), 20.4 (11.30am), 22.2 (4:45) 26.5 (9:10), 27 (10:10am), 37.2 (12:25), 36.6 (4:10pm), 47 (5:30) 45.2 (10.am), 78 (12pm), 92 (1:30pm), 103 (3:30pm), 124 (4:15pm), 145 (5:30pm), 156 (7:45) Star Wars: TLJ   80 (4pm) 175 (6:30pm) 275 (10:45am) Black Panther 65-70 (3:30pm) 82.33 (3:45pm) 107 (2:45pm)   244 (2:30) Avengers: Infinity War 88.33 (1pm)   85 (8:55am), 91 (9:10am) 157 (3pm), 200 (6:30) 240 (11:15am), 305 (3pm) Deadpool 2     60 (6pm) 55 (9:30 am), 60 (10am), 98.75 (12pm), 165.5 (3:20pm), 204 (5:20pm) Han Solo   22 (2:15pm), 32 (6:45pm) 51 (11:40am), 41.75  (4:30pm) 45 (10:10am), 57 (10.30am), 73 (12:30pm), 89 (3:30pm), 92.6 (4pm), 134 (5:45pm) Jurassic World: FK     74.67 (8:30pm) 120 (2pm), 121 (3:30pm), 120 (3:45pm), 156.7 (5:30pm) Ant-man    15.5 (1pm), 16.333 (3pm)   135 (5:15pm) Captain Marvel 14.67 (8:45am) 23.4 (8:45am)     Avengers Endgame     104 (8:45am), 241.47 (11am)

[HouseOfTheSun]

Since we are talking about Kelly Clarkson, someone once described American Idol back in its prime as the Death Star of teleivison. Likewise, endgame is the Death Star of ticket sales. Much like American Idol put the squeeze on television ratings of anything around it, Endgame is muting everything else. 

 

I don’t think any of the movies failing to recover at this juncture is a bad sign. This was always going to happen. 

Edited April 24, 2019 by HouseOfTheSun

[stfletch]

 

As expected, my Thursday Previews Estimate went down slightly based on Tuesday EOD Fandango figures. Still over $60M though!

 

AIW:

	MON	TUE	WED	THU
THU	135,699	150,926	170,797	204,244
FRI	119,025	136,046	156,701	177,694
SAT	95,621	108,364	123,769	136,023
SUN	51,258	58,847	67,711	74,892
TOTAL	401,603	454,183	518,978	592,853

 

AEG:

	MON	TUE
THU	222,280	236,062
FRI	188,824	206,303
SAT	175,121	188,747
SUN	120,786	129,471
TOTAL	707,010	760,582

 

Factor:

	MON	TUE
THU	1.64	1.56
FRI	1.59	1.52
SAT	1.83	1.74
SUN	2.36	2.20

 

Estimate:

	AIW		Factor		AEG Est.
THU	$39,000,000	x	1.56	=	$60,999,464
FRI	$67,334,939	x	1.52	=	$102,108,138
SAT	$82,131,612	x	1.74	=	$143,055,485
SUN	$69,231,632	x	2.20	=	$152,318,286
TOTAL	$257,698,183				$458,481,374

 

Estimate based on Monday EOD and Methodology in Spoiler Tags below.

 

Spoiler

AEG Fandango Units Sold as of EOD Opening Week Monday

THU	222,280
FRI	188,824
SAT	175,121
SUN	120,786
TOTAL	707,010

 

AIW Fandango Units Sold as of Opening Week Monday

THU	135,699
FRI	119,025
SAT	95,621
SUN	51,258
TOTAL	401,603

 

Hence, estimates are:

	AIW		Factor		AEG Est.
THU	$39,000,000	x	1.64	=	$63,883,353
FRI	$67,334,939	x	1.59	=	$106,821,730
SAT	$82,131,612	x	1.83	=	$150,416,114
SUN	$69,231,632	x	2.36	=	$163,139,363
TOTAL	$257,698,183				$484,260,560

 

 

Spoiler

OK, so now the fun starts... this link from AKValley has now started showing Avenger Endgame http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt

 

From this we can see how many Fandango Pulse "tickets" (I will use units from now on, as we know it's not actual individual tickets that are tracked) have been sold for each day of the first weekend, by which day they were sold. In this calculation I have included an estimate of the number of units sold during the first couple of days when Pulse was down. Based on the comment from Fandango that AEG outsold AIW 5:1 in first week, I believe this to be around 360,000 units. I used the split of THU:FRI:SAT:SUN from the few days after Pulse was back to portion out the tickets to each of the days (in all likelihood the first day probably saw more sales weighted towards Thursday but I have no way of estimating by how much). In total this gives us as of Monday 4/22/2019, 9pm CST.

 

THU	220,543
FRI	186,674
SAT	173,416
SUN	119,706
TOTAL	700,338

 

We can compare this with how many units were sold for Infinity War as at the end of the Monday of opening week (using the historical data in the google docs on AKValleys FML website: https://fantasymovieleague.com/chatter/board/fml-main-chatter/topic/462064)

 

THU	135,699
FRI	119,025
SAT	95,621
SUN	51,258
TOTAL	401,603

And using the factor between the two and multiplying by AIW's actual box office totals during the weekend we can get the following estimate.

 

	AIW		Factor		AEG Est.
THU	$39,000,000	x	1.63	=	$63,384,138
FRI	$67,334,939	x	1.57	=	$105,605,430
SAT	$82,131,612	x	1.81	=	$148,951,640
SUN	$69,231,632	x	2.34	=	$161,680,661
TOTAL	$257,698,183				$479,621,869

 

Now obviously Fri through Sun are increasingly absurd. This is because the % walk-ups vs presales for AIW on those days would be much higher than what we are likely to get for AEG. But if we assume Thursday was almost entirely presales for both AIW and AEG (or at least that the % of presales to walk-ups won't be all THAT different), this could be a good estimate, or at least a good top estimate. One caveat is that there are still a couple of hours to go of Monday, so this estimate will actually increase until we get the final end-of-Monday total for AEG. I can also refine this estimate over the next few days using EOD presales from Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

TL;DR - Endgames has sold a fuck load of tickets already, and I believe the preview record is toast!