The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Minnale101]

The thing about Shazam is movie never played like family movie 

 

1st Saturday didn’t see a increase but actually decreased from Friday 

 

Detective pikachu being PG will help a lot and it will actually see the increase on Saturday 

Edited May 6, 2019 by Minnale101

[Eric Duncan]

On 4/22/2019 at 12:49 PM, Deep Wang said:

DP - 421k

 

JW3 - 418k

This was two weeks ago. Seems like solid jumps for both, especially Wick.

 

On 11/30/2018 at 8:47 AM, Deep Wang said:

MPR - 194k

This was 19 days before Poppins' release, which is only a day off from Aladdin at the moment.

 

On 2/4/2019 at 12:28 PM, Deep Wang said:

LM2 - 346k

 

HTTYD - 142k

 

For Lego, it's 4 days before release (same as Pikachu), while Dragon is 18, the exact same as Aladdin.

 

So for Pikachu, more than quadrupling Lego 2 seems solid. Don't know an exact number, but very solid. Aladdin being at 722K is leaps and bounds above both Poppins and Dragon, but Poppins being more spread out in sales does complicate things quite a bit, and there is the possibility of Aladdin being a more teen/YA-driven movie that could inflate presales a touch. Don't know how to extrapolate this stuff, but good ol' Al seems fine? Maybe I'll have to wait until the next update and see the bump this could get.

[Mulder]

I feel like BOP's prediction of 60+ for Aladdin's 3 day seems to be about right. If it gets good reviews it could go up to 70-80, if it gets bad reviews like i'm predicting tbh it'll go go sub-60/lows 60s 3 day.

[cdsacken]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

Yea since people buy tickets for days besides the weekend (like Christmas for example) presales are more spread out for movies hence why you get relatively smaller OW but much better legs during that time. 

I mean I don't think Coco is a good comp anyways but I just wanted to point out that its final number was 1M. 

 

I think the presales for Pikachu are solid imo but they still don't tell me anything simply because I still have no idea how its going to play out ie more family friendly or front loaded. Depending on how it plays out, the weekend could go one of two which ways for it. 

Agreed. I'm at 65 but comfortable with thinking anywhere from 50-80. Huge range

[Mulder]

I just can not see 50-60 at this point in time with DP. 60-70 sounds reasonable to me.

[That One Girl]

Pikachu over 80M and John Wick over 70M.  It's happening.

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Agreed. I'm at 65 but comfortable with thinking anywhere from 50-80. Huge range

I think that’s a good range imo. $65M is probably where it will end up if I had to guess based on the data we’ve been given thus far. And I know I sound like I’m making excuses for the movie (I’m really not) but I truly don’t know how it’s going to play out and we all know that a family movie vs any other kind of movie makes a big difference in its box office 

Edited May 6, 2019 by Nova

[Minnale101]

Other movies didn’t have to do pre sales during the biggest of all time release like detective pikachu and John wick 

 

IMO the audience that were so focused  on endgame is starting to turn attention to other movies 

 

the room for growth for DP and John wick is there. Final numbers will be interesting 

[Mulder]

If somehow May 2019 is like March 2017 I'm going to be hyped as hell. ((March 2017 had 80+ OW for Logan, 150+ OW for BATB, and 60+ OW for Kong: Skull Island))

Edited May 6, 2019 by Mulder
Wrong MonsterVerse movie oops

[cdsacken]

6 minutes ago, Nova said:

I think that’s a good range imo $65M is probably where it will end up if I had to guess based on the data we’ve been given thus far. 

That would be funny because initially it was just my dart toss guess

I was off on US OW big time but I got the total right.

 

cant believe how well it did in OW yet failed to beat Get Out

Edited May 6, 2019 by cdsacken

[Minnale101]

Just now, Nova said:

I think that’s a good range imo $65M is probably where it will end up if I had to guess based on the data we’ve been given thus far. 

You finally come around 😆. That 50 million tracking always been BS

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

You finally come around 😆. That 50 million tracking always been BS

I mean it’s still not bs because again the movie didn’t come out yet. I still have it within a $50M+ range BUT like I’ve said if the movie plays more family friendly, I’d expect it to be on the higher end of the range but if it ends up not playing family friendly, then I could totally see $50-60M 

 

If it can double its presales and get to $3M, I’d argue that’s very very solid for it and should put it in position to have a solid weekend. We shall see. 

Edited May 6, 2019 by Nova

[Menor the Destroyer]

12 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

The thing about Shazam is movie never played like family movie 

 

1st Saturday didn’t see a increase but actually decreased from Friday 

 

Detective pikachu being PG will help a lot and it will actually see the increase on Saturday 

It was much more family-oriented than your usual superhero movie though. The reason why I feel like Shazam is a good comp is that it has a hardcore fanbase (like Pika) but is targeted more toward a family demographic (like Pika). It comes the closest to approximating that odd mix.

[Minnale101]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

I mean it’s still not bs because again the movie didn’t come out yet. I still have it within a $50M+ range BUT like I’ve said if the movie plays more family friendly, I’d expect it to be on the higher end of the range but if it ends up not playing family friendly, then I could totally see $50-60M 

It will play like a family friendly movie. Nothing to suggest wise. Especially with Saturday shows matinee and evening shows pre sales I been seeing 

[Nova]

8 minutes ago, Menor said:

It was much more family-oriented than your usual superhero movie though. The reason why I feel like Shazam is a good comp is that it has a hardcore fanbase (like Pika) but is targeted more toward a family demographic (like Pika). It comes the closest to approximating that odd mix.

FWIW Shazam! actually didn’t play like a family film though. The expectation was for it to be more family friendly but if you look at its drops on weekends and what not, it played like a typical CBM. 

 

BUT I’m using Shazam! as a comp since it has a fan base and since Pika is tracking near it so I think it’s the best comp as well btw And also if Pikachu plays more like a CBM, then it’ll be interesting to see how it stacks up against Shazam! in the end 

Edited May 6, 2019 by Nova

[Minnale101]

Just now, Menor said:

It was much more family-oriented than your usual superhero movie though. The reason why I feel like Shazam is a good comp is that it has a hardcore fanbase (like Pika) but is targeted more toward a family demographic (like Pika). It comes the closest to approximating that odd mix.

But it didn’t though play like one. 

 

Even dumbo which had much worse reviews and wom saw a increase for Saturday 

 

Pokemon has a built in kids fan base also the kids who grew up with Pokémon are now older and have kids theme selves might take them to watch their first Pokémon movie 

[Poseidon]

23 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Coco was also 97% rt and fully animated. 

And surely a bigger hit with adults, than with kids. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

But it didn’t though play like one. 

 

Even dumbo which had much worse reviews and wom saw a increase for Saturday 

 

Pokemon has a built in kids fan base also the kids who grew up with Pokémon are now older and have kids theme selves might take them to watch their first Pokémon movie 

The expectation that it'll play like a family film is essentially an argument that the presale multiplier will be more like a Pixar release than a superhero film right? That's where the hardcore fanbase comes in. Something like Coco doesn't have a dedicated group of fans who are gonna buy presale tickets the way Pokemon does. That's my argument for Shazam being the comp, I'm not disputing the fact that it's daily grosses played more like a normal CBM.

[Minnale101]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

The expectation that it'll play like a family film is essentially an argument that the presale multiplier will be more like a Pixar release than a superhero film right? That's where the hardcore fanbase comes in. Something like Coco doesn't have a dedicated group of fans who are gonna buy presale tickets the way Pokemon does. That's my argument for Shazam being the comp, I'm not disputing the fact that it's daily grosses played more like a normal CBM.

I think you over estimating die hard Pokémon fans buying tickets for this movie 

 

this is not a typical Pokémon.

 

Its about a Talking pikachu being a detective. This is not anyone expected and more so this is chasing the family crowd.

 

the soccer moms who think pikachu is adorable and cute or kids who like Pikachu 

 

 

It’s  not a action heavy movie with a crazy complicated story 

Edited May 6, 2019 by Minnale101

[Cappoedameron]

20 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Pikachu over 80M and John Wick over 70M.  It's happening.

Pika will be 80M and John Wick potentially 60M. Aladdin is 60M