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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
Just now, Minnale101 said:

the soccer moms who think pikachu is adorable and cute or kids who like Pikachu 

 

this his is not a action heavy movie with a crazy story 

Without pulling in a certain user who shall remain nameless here, I think the Pokemon Go demo might be the one you're thinking about here.  How it goes over with them will be interesting to see.

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Minnale101 Box Office Gold

Minnale101

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Without pulling in a certain user who shall remain nameless here, I think the Pokemon Go demo might be the one you're thinking about here.  How it goes over with them will be interesting to see.

Yeah exactly. More casual audience.

 

If it can attract both hardcore and casuals then movie is onto something 

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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Menor said:

The expectation that it'll play like a family film is essentially an argument that the presale multiplier will be more like a Pixar release than a superhero film right? That's where the hardcore fanbase comes in. Something like Coco doesn't have a dedicated group of fans who are gonna buy presale tickets the way Pokemon does. That's my argument for Shazam being the comp, I'm not disputing the fact that it's daily grosses played more like a normal CBM.

Not necessarily. I think it has more to do with how it plays on Saturdays and Sundays. Which coincidently happens to effect the IM of a movie but doesn't really have to do with presales. I mean presales obviously come into play at some point especially when they get really high for a family movie (Incredibles 2 for example) but when I talk about a family friendly movie, I'm more referring to how it'll play on the weekend. 

 

Having said that, I'm still sticking with my 10x multiplier for Pikachu though so I dont expect it to play like a Pixar film at all but more of a hybrid of a CBM and a mini family movie if that makes sense lol 

Edited by Nova
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stealthyfrog Sleeper Hit

stealthyfrog

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Mulder said:

If somehow May 2019 is like March 2017 I'm going to be hyped as hell. ((March 2017 had 80+ OW for Logan, 150+ OW for BATB, and 60+ OW for Kong: Skull Island))

I don't really see a replacement for BatB. Pikachu could be the 80 million OW if it blows up. Aladdin and Godzilla will probably be 60 million each.

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Mulder Global Phenomenon

Mulder

Posted
Posted
Just now, stealthyfrog said:

I don't really see a replacement for BatB. Pikachu could be the 80 million OW if it blows up. Aladdin and Godzilla will probably be 60 million each.

I feel like Endgame's operating as the BATB. In an ideal world Godzilla'd also be an 80 million OW....but to not jinx it for myself I'm still on the 60 million train.

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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted

Aladdin's presales are only worrisome if you expect it to play out like BATB but imo I dont expect that. 

 

And looking at the numbers DW provided, I'm not getting these $60M predictions for it. It should be good for at least $80M for the 3-day. I guess a caveat is that since it IS a holiday release, its presales could be more spread out which would depress the 3 day but be made up for it on Monday. 

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Mulder Global Phenomenon

Mulder

Posted
Posted
Just now, Nova said:

Aladdin's presales are only worrisome if you expect it to play out like BATB but imo I dont expect that. 

 

And looking at the numbers DW provided, I'm not getting these $60M predictions for it. It should be good for at least $80M for the 3-day. I guess a caveat is that since it IS a holiday release, its presales could be more spread out which would depress the 3 day but be made up for it on Monday. 

BOP was very bull-ish on it only to revise it downwards heavily, and it's tracking was for the four day apparently. That's enough to make me skeptical especially considering how much it's slowed down at my theater (One showing at 10 PM on Thursday still has no tickets sold).

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)

Current Top Ten (and ties) for last 17 hours:

  

Fandango Sales Past 17 Hours
Since: 2019-05-05 17:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	47.294%	19079	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	20.827%	8402	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)
3	06.083%	2454	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
4	05.027%	2028	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
5	04.789%	1932	Spider-Man Far From Home  (2019)
6	02.623%	1058	Long Shot
7	02.424%	978	The Intruder (2019)
8	01.358%	548	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
9	01.182%	477	Captain Marvel (2019)
10	00.977%	394	UglyDolls
11	00.726%	293	Aladdin (2019)
12	00.545%	220	Shazam!
13	00.545%	220	Breakthrough (2019)

===

 

Anyone feel like trawling through the thread to find any CM numbers from a similar point in time?

 

EDIT:::

 

Since I checked right at the hour mark, here it is for the last 18 hours:

  

Fandango Sales Past 18 Hours
Since: 2019-05-05 18:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	48.001%	21284	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	20.013%	8874	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)
3	06.051%	2683	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
4	05.031%	2231	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
5	04.531%	2009	Spider-Man Far From Home  (2019)
6	02.736%	1213	Long Shot
7	02.472%	1096	The Intruder (2019)
8	01.355%	601	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
9	01.211%	537	Captain Marvel (2019)
10	00.988%	438	UglyDolls
11	00.715%	317	Aladdin (2019)
12	00.582%	258	Breakthrough (2019)
13	00.557%	247	The Curse of La Llorona
14	00.555%	246	Shazam!
Edited by Porthos
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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Current Top Ten (and ties) for last 17 hours:

  


Fandango Sales Past 17 Hours
Since: 2019-05-05 17:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	47.294%	19079	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	20.827%	8402	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)
3	06.083%	2454	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
4	05.027%	2028	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
5	04.789%	1932	Spider-Man Far From Home  (2019)
6	02.623%	1058	Long Shot
7	02.424%	978	The Intruder (2019)
8	01.358%	548	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
9	01.182%	477	Captain Marvel (2019)
10	00.977%	394	UglyDolls
11	00.726%	293	Aladdin (2019)
12	00.545%	220	Shazam!
13	00.545%	220	Breakthrough (2019)

===

 

Anyone feel like trawling through the thread to find any CM numbers from a similar point in time?

 

EDIT:::

 

Since I checked right at the hour mark, here it is for the last 18 hours:

  


Fandango Sales Past 18 Hours
Since: 2019-05-05 18:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	48.001%	21284	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	20.013%	8874	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)
3	06.051%	2683	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
4	05.031%	2231	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
5	04.531%	2009	Spider-Man Far From Home  (2019)
6	02.736%	1213	Long Shot
7	02.472%	1096	The Intruder (2019)
8	01.355%	601	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
9	01.211%	537	Captain Marvel (2019)
10	00.988%	438	UglyDolls
11	00.715%	317	Aladdin (2019)
12	00.582%	258	Breakthrough (2019)
13	00.557%	247	The Curse of La Llorona
14	00.555%	246	Shazam!

CM day 1 from whenever it started presales (I believe it was sometime in the afternoon) to midnight was 5,983. At a similar timeframe FFH was at at least 8,000.

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Minnale101 Box Office Gold

Minnale101

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Nova said:

Aquaman did 2M 

MPR did 1.5 

are others one off the top of my head from the Monday before release (MPR was a Wednesday release though and of course Aqauman had the holidays so its presales were more spread out. 

Was today monday pre sales included in that 1.5 million ?

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

I think you over estimating die hard Pokémon fans buying tickets for this movie 

 

this is not a typical Pokémon.

 

Its about a Talking pikachu being a detective. This is not anyone expected and more so this is chasing the family crowd.

 

the soccer moms who think pikachu is adorable and cute or kids who like Pikachu 

 

 

It’s  not a action heavy movie with a crazy complicated story 

It's the first live-action Pokemon movie and has a shit ton of Pokemon in it. No matter what the premise hardcore fans will be hyped.

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Perfundle Cult Classic

Perfundle

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Nova said:

Not necessarily. I think it has more to do with how it plays on Saturdays and Sundays. Which coincidently happens to effect the IM of a movie but doesn't really have to do with presales. I mean presales obviously come into play at some point especially when they get really high for a family movie (Incredibles 2 for example) but when I talk about a family friendly movie, I'm more referring to how it'll play on the weekend. 

 

Having said that, I'm still sticking with my 10x multiplier for Pikachu though so I dont expect it to play like a Pixar film at all but more of a hybrid of a CBM and a mini family movie if that makes sense lol 

This is what I'm thinking too. A fairly high Thursday number for a PG film, but similar Friday (or rather, Thursday+Friday) and Saturday numbers, splitting the difference between CBMs, which have higher Fridays, and true family films, which have higher Saturdays.

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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted
Just now, Minnale101 said:

Was today monday pre sales included in that 1.5 million ?

No clue. DW just drops off numbers on Monday sometimes and I just refer to them as the Monday before release. I doubt it would include Monday since its actual sales (and Monday isnt over yet) but Monday just gets calculated in the final presale number

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Minnale101 Box Office Gold

Minnale101

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Menor said:

It's the first live-action Pokemon movie and has a shit ton of Pokemon in it. No matter what the premise hardcore fans will be hyped.

I disagree. I’m a huge Pokémon fan and have plenty of friends who like Pokémon and are definitely wait and see if it’s good approach with movie 

 

 

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Nova said:

No clue. DW just drops off numbers on Monday sometimes and I just refer to them as the Monday before release. I doubt it would include Monday since its actual sales (and Monday isnt over yet) but Monday just gets calculated in the final presale number

Yes it does since FFH was included in his update.

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Minnale101 Box Office Gold

Minnale101

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Nova said:

No clue. DW just drops off numbers on Monday sometimes and I just refer to them as the Monday before release. I doubt it would include Monday since its actual sales (and Monday isnt over yet) but Monday just gets calculated in the final presale number

Alright cool. I think it will double that 1.5 million number with how Monday is looking right now 

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Minnale101 said:

I disagree. I’m a huge Pokémon fan and have plenty of friends who like Pokémon and are definitely wait and see if it’s good approach with movie 

 

 

Hmm, guess we have different experiences then. I'm not a massive Pokemon fan but several of my friends are and are quite excited for this. We'll see how it goes I guess.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Menor said:

CM day 1 from whenever it started presales (I believe it was sometime in the afternoon) to midnight was 5,983. At a similar timeframe FFH was at at least 8,000.

I just checked.  They went on sale at 6pm EST.


So that is a bit apples to oranges, unfortunately since FFH would have had all today (it went on sale at, what, 5am, 6am EDT 8am, or 9am EDT or so?) and CM didn't.

Edited by Porthos
Freakin time zones.
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