The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Nova]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

This is when I2 showed up on MT.com. BTW.  It very quickly rose to the top within a day.  Of course, it didn't have EG or FFH to deal with.

 

I'm checking around this time to see if there was a Deep Wang update.

 

==

 

And, yes, I know Pika Pika won't come close to I2.  Basically thinking about the percentage comp.

I2s final number was 4M on its *Tuesday of release 

 

We never got an update for Fallen Kingdom or Ant-Man and The Wasp (that I could find) 

 

Only CBM I have are: 

Aquaman: 2M (Monday before release) 

 

Others are final numbers on their Thursday before release 

Thor 3: 4.5M 

Spider-man Homecoming: 4.8M 

GOTG2: 8.1M 

Justice League: 5.6M 

 

Edited May 7, 2019 by Nova

[Biggestgeekever]

If I recall correctly, Inside Out started low on MT and then was able to pass Jurassic World on Friday.

 

Also, anecdotally, Saturday matinees are doing noticeably better than Thursday or Friday night showings. So I don't have much concern about it frontloadedness on OW.

[Cappoedameron]

5 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Same here but I am hoping the hardcore fans push it to 65 OW. Same was said about Shazam, so many thought it was going to explode and then it didn't. I do think it's more family friendly than Shazam but the critical reception is much worse. Top critics dislike it, overall it's ok on critical reception.

What you term okay I view as miraculously successful. Why? Because it's a video game film, and also a Pokemon film.

 

Do you know how quick critics are to rip to shreds a video game film? And a Pokemon film none the less? Good lord they look at the title "Pokemon" and automatically say F.

 

And I could give two craps what those "top critics" think with their "clever" puns of "if you don't know a squirtle from a bulbasaur, you won't give a jigglypuff" or "you know pokemon go, this is pokemon don't go". 

 

Thunderbolt those lame ass "top critics"

 

Edited May 7, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[cdsacken]

Just now, Biggestgeekever said:

If I recall correctly, Inside Out started low on MT and then was able to pass Jurassic World on Friday.

 

Also, anecdotally, Saturday matinees are doing noticeably better than Thursday or Friday night showings. So I don't have much concern about it frontloadedness on OW.

Inside out was a great target to shoot for but again imo not a fair comp. It was universally loved by critics, an animated film and was specifically for kids and parents. That movie absolutely nailed the demographics

[Minnale101]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

Take away End Game and the number still seems fine to me *shrug* 

 

Its final number should be around $3M. If you go back through the Pika thread, I’d mentioned that that’s the target Id want for it when tickets first went on sale.

I expect tomorrow to be huge.

 

the Pokémon go event for detective pikachu starts 

 

Spider-Man today kinda stole its light in first hours but looking at the daily hours for pluse. Spider-Man is definitely dropping compared to morning 

 

so yeah it looks fine to me. Especially for family audience movie 

 

 

[Porthos]

On 6/13/2018 at 7:01 AM, Deep Wang said:

Well, no idea about comps, but I2 was at 4m yesterday.  Seems alright for an animated movie?

Wed Morning of release week for I2, giving Tue numbers at the MTC DW has access to.

 

Ended up doing 18.5m on Thr nationwide.

Edited May 7, 2019 by Porthos

[Tentatek]

As if critical reception has any impact on Pokémon 🤣

 

The games which sold millions(grossed BILLIONS) and are top sellers every year aren’t GOTY or awards contenders compared to say Sony exclusives which critics like to overhype but sell about 1/3 of Pokémon games.

 

This movie wouldnt be any different. 

Edited May 7, 2019 by Tentatek

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Wed Morning of release week for I2, giving Tue numbers at the MTC DW has access to.

 

Ended up doing 18.5m on Thr nationwide.

Yea I just remember 4M from somewhere. Wasn’t sure when it was given out though. Let me go edit my comment lol 

[Cappoedameron]

MT Update

 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Tentatek said:

As if critical reception has any impact on Pokémon 🤣

 

The games which sold millions(grossed BILLIONS) and are top sellers every year aren’t GOTY or awards contenders compared to say Sony exclusives which critics like to overhype but sell about 1/3 of Pokémon games.

 

This movie wouldnt be any different. 

Games ain't movies.

 

Nothing else needs to be said.

 

====

 

Okay, I'll say something else: Yes some movies and genres are more critic proof than others [horror especially], but to say critical reception has NO impact really is ignoring the vast amount of evidence out there.  Films like Venom are the exception, not the rule.

 

How the GA outside of the targeted main demos of a movie react to critical reception is how something goes from expected numbers to breakout hit.  Even the horror genre sees this, prime example being It.

[Legion Again]

46 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I think the run will be almost cloning. I expect around $50-55mn OD and then same legs. 

Thinking FFH might be a little bit more frontloaded to the 6-day, but likely pretty similar. Also, not sure if you saw, but I crunched some numbers in the FFH thread and it looks like TDKR caused TASM to be about 12.5% lower total than if the weekend 3 competition was normal. Expecting about 5-10% damage from TLK if it’s as big as some are thinking (I’m not sure it will even do that much more than FFH, want to see some BOP estimates, presales, etc).

Edited May 7, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Cappoedameron]

I remember us talking about Pikachu gettiing 6% by tomorrow evening, I guess it's a good sign it's happened a day earlier.

[Nova]

I went back through the thread. No DW numbers for Ant-Man, Fallen Kingdom or Shazam!  

[Legion Again]

22 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

17 PT 5/5/19 (EO 2nd Sun)

1	77.7%	Avengers: Endgame
2	4.7%	UglyDolls
3	3.9%	Long Shot
4	3.4%	The Intruder
5	1.8%	Captain Marvel

 

Waiting for Pika, by Samuel Beckett

No longer waiting for Pika  

17 PT 5/6/19 (End of 2nd Mon)  

1	71.3%	Avengers: Endgame
2	6.1%	Detective Pikachu
3	3.9%	Long Shot
4	3.5%	The Intruder
5	2.9%	Captain Marvel   

 

Pika all the way to 2nd. Roughly 1/12th of Endgame seems perfectly healthy to me 3 days before previews, expecting a close weekend race. In 5th place we swap one solo MCU for another, been a really crazy stretch of these updates now with 2 MCU movies in a row but it will end soon when FFH’s initial frenzy dies down.      

 

Uglydolls is the new release pushed out as the only kid skewing one. Don’t know if we’ll ever see it back, maybe tomorrow.

[DAJK]

Some theatres around me are actually dropping Uglydolls matinees to have an extra screening of Pikachu for matinees.

 

Dropping UGLYDOLLS for MATINEES... pretty much the only shows where Uglydolls does any business whatsoever (at least when I'm at work). The fact that they dropped matinees instead of evenings (because as far as I know, if a studio lets you split their movie on a screen, they don't care which shows you drop as long as you play X # of their movie per day) makes it seem like theatres are betting big of Pika being a matinee monster rather than a nighttime performer. 

Edited May 7, 2019 by DAJK

[Perfundle]

10 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Some theatres around me are actually dropping Uglydolls matinees to have an extra screening of Pikachu for matinees.

 

Dropping UGLYDOLLS for MATINEES... pretty much the only shows where Uglydolls does any business whatsoever (at least when I'm at work). The fact that they dropped matinees instead of evenings (because as far as I know, if a studio lets you split their movie on a screen, they don't care which shows you drop as long as you play X # of their movie per day) makes it seem like theatres are betting big of Pika being a matinee monster rather than a nighttime performer. 

Why would a studio do this? Is it like a tit-for-tat thing, where they allow other movies to take their showings if they get to reciprocate in the future?

[Neucentro]

Dumbo will be a good comp for DP. Both are PG, established brands, and have a cuteness factor on the title character.

[Minnale101]

STX has had some bombs lately 

 

Poms doesn’t seem like it’s gonna be any different 

[VanillaSkies]

12 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Some theatres around me are actually dropping Uglydolls matinees to have an extra screening of Pikachu for matinees.

 

Dropping UGLYDOLLS for MATINEES... pretty much the only shows where Uglydolls does any business whatsoever (at least when I'm at work). The fact that they dropped matinees instead of evenings (because as far as I know, if a studio lets you split their movie on a screen, they don't care which shows you drop as long as you play X # of their movie per day) makes it seem like theatres are betting big of Pika being a matinee monster rather than a nighttime performer. 

Interesting you say that. 

Two of the biggest AMC theatres in NYC, Empire and Lincoln Square have 3 afternoon showings in Dolby for Pike and then Dolby switches to 2 evening shows of Endgame. 

 

Endgame is keeping IMAX throughout the day at both theatres. 

 

But yes, it goes to your point that theatres are expecting strong mid-day business and weaker night business.

[Minnale101]

Just now, Neucentro said:

Dumbo will be a good comp for DP. Both are PG, established brands, and have a cuteness factor on the title character.

Not even close. Detective pikachu has way more hype than dumbo did when it released 

 

I could care less about but 22 % higher rotten tomatoes rating 

 

Detective pikachu is more of comedy film.

 

dumbo is cute but serious